(02-05-2018 04:43 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  NIKKEI is gonna open down 8% tonight. Tomorrow is gonna open down another 2% isnt it?

I'd play it cautious until at least 9:40. The first 5-10 minutes at open price will flux widely. It may not be as ugly as you'd think tomorrow.

That way you've got a trend line for the day clearly established on the 2 minute chart.

Then I'd get out at 10:40 once the damage has done its course and a dead cat bounce starts forming.

If I'm looking at AMZN's chart it looks like a drop n' pop where it might test 1320 at the open and be within a few points of the previous days close by 9:45. Once its bounces back up and hits a double top then its safe to short it.

(02-05-2018 05:29 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:00 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 03:35 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  I guess the bottom line in all this is that the Dow still does not equal the economy.

Its psychology, not economics.

The era of "free money" in the way of almost criminally low interest rates is winding down. Because the economy is starting to improve on it's own without the need of the easy money policies, inflation has been ticking up and the interest rates are being brought back to where they are supposed to be in a normal economy.

What we are seeing is a correction to the U.S. and all the world markets. It's actually a good thing. Remember, the markets don't drive the economy but the economy that drives the markets.

The tax cut just makes higher interest rates easier to afford. Stuff tends to solve itself.

(02-05-2018 05:57 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 04:43 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  NIKKEI is gonna open down 8% tonight. Tomorrow is gonna open down another 2% isnt it?

I'd play it cautious until at least 9:40. The first 5-10 minutes at open price will flux widely. It may not be as ugly as you'd think tomorrow.

That way you've got a trend line for the day clearly established on the 2 minute chart.

Then I'd get out at 10:40 once the damage has done its course and a dead cat bounce starts forming.

If I'm looking at AMZN's chart it looks like a drop n' pop where it might test 1320 at the open and be within a few points of the previous days close by 9:45. Once its bounces back up and hits a double top then its safe to short it.

I cashed out most of my short positions today....I blew past my exit points. With volatility so high, short positions are going to be expensive.

I'm just gonna sit on cash until we get near technical supports. Let volatility come down.

BTW, if the XIV liquidates, volatility is going to spike early.

(02-05-2018 05:57 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 04:43 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  NIKKEI is gonna open down 8% tonight. Tomorrow is gonna open down another 2% isnt it?

I'd play it cautious until at least 9:40. The first 5-10 minutes at open price will flux widely. It may not be as ugly as you'd think tomorrow.

That way you've got a trend line for the day clearly established on the 2 minute chart.

Then I'd get out at 10:40 once the damage has done its course and a dead cat bounce starts forming.

If I'm looking at AMZN's chart it looks like a drop n' pop where it might test 1320 at the open and be within a few points of the previous days close by 9:45. Once its bounces back up and hits a double top then its safe to short it.

RE Nikkei...Japanese can't catch a break. I think the Nikkei has been horrendous barring 2 really good years since the year 2000.

(02-05-2018 06:01 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:57 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 04:43 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  NIKKEI is gonna open down 8% tonight. Tomorrow is gonna open down another 2% isnt it?

I'd play it cautious until at least 9:40. The first 5-10 minutes at open price will flux widely. It may not be as ugly as you'd think tomorrow.

That way you've got a trend line for the day clearly established on the 2 minute chart.

Then I'd get out at 10:40 once the damage has done its course and a dead cat bounce starts forming.

If I'm looking at AMZN's chart it looks like a drop n' pop where it might test 1320 at the open and be within a few points of the previous days close by 9:45. Once its bounces back up and hits a double top then its safe to short it.

RE Nikkei...Japanese can't catch a break. I think the Nikkei has been horrendous barring 2 really good years since the year 2000.

It was up 60% over the last 18 months. A correction was due in Japan.

(02-05-2018 05:48 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:42 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:36 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 04:00 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Down the most points in history. Over 4.6%

Still a small percentage. Market was overpriced and due for a correction. No biggie to most of us that are in it for the long haul. Those that are gambling in day trading?...well.

I have a good 20+ years to build my 401k... Seeing the DOW drop like it has is pretty awesome. Everyone who knew anything about investing already knew that both stocks and bonds are overpriced due to the higher P/E rations and ultra low interest rates respectively. In a normal, healthy economy a 30 year mortgage should range between 6% - 8% depending on your credit rating.

These current rates are still too low for a healthy economy: https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/

If you are buying stock through a 401K...these plans are buying shares at the same time each month and dollar cost averaging. A down turn is actually good for the long term investor because it allows you to buy shares cheaper. That is the beauty of dollar cost averaging. Generally there are more days when the market is down..than up and so you end up buying on more down days than up days. Warren Buffett has said many times that this is the way most people should invest for retirement.

Yep, that's how I invest in the market. I don't have the time to do the day trading and timing the market is a fools errand IMHO. Sometimes you can do it but many times you will also miss out because conditions aren't "optimal". Buffet's advise is sage. I also liked Bogle's views on investing too. I'm invested with Vanguard.

(02-05-2018 05:54 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:44 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:42 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:29 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:28 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  What is going to happen to the crypto ETFs?

No stomach for that at this point lol.

I dont mess with cryptos so Im not the person to ask. I assume Bitcoin and Ripple are still crashing?

The game in the crypto arena is to invest not in the individual crypto technologies but the mining companies. They'll have the technology to compete as the technology evolves.

Actually an international banking crisis could accelerate cryptos development if a lack of confidence exists in it. We are a long way off from that point at the moment.

Yea, I know some people that are big investors in blockchain tech. I just havent researched enough to be confident in any trades or investments.

Last I heard they were down about 60% from their mid-December highs.

A lot of those people are trying to average down their loss by buying at a cheaper price.

I don't agree with averaging down. It's not based on technicals or fundamentals that drive price but on hope it will regain its former price level. When it does that is usually 3 to 6 months out.

I remember when Amazon dropped from 690 to 480 the last correction in Jan 2016 it didn't get back to 700 until May. That is a long time to be waiting around holding a bag.

(02-05-2018 06:04 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:48 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:42 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:36 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 04:00 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Down the most points in history. Over 4.6%

Still a small percentage. Market was overpriced and due for a correction. No biggie to most of us that are in it for the long haul. Those that are gambling in day trading?...well.

I have a good 20+ years to build my 401k... Seeing the DOW drop like it has is pretty awesome. Everyone who knew anything about investing already knew that both stocks and bonds are overpriced due to the higher P/E rations and ultra low interest rates respectively. In a normal, healthy economy a 30 year mortgage should range between 6% - 8% depending on your credit rating.

These current rates are still too low for a healthy economy: https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/

If you are buying stock through a 401K...these plans are buying shares at the same time each month and dollar cost averaging. A down turn is actually good for the long term investor because it allows you to buy shares cheaper. That is the beauty of dollar cost averaging. Generally there are more days when the market is down..than up and so you end up buying on more down days than up days. Warren Buffett has said many times that this is the way most people should invest for retirement.

Yep, that's how I invest in the market. I don't have the time to do the day trading and timing the market is a fools errand IMHO. Sometimes you can do it but many times you will also miss out because conditions aren't "optimal". Buffet's advise is sage. I also liked Bogle's views on investing too. I'm invested with Vanguard.

DING DING DING. Definitely is.

I use options as insurance to protect my long term investments when the market is overbought. But I dont understand day traders.

(02-05-2018 06:04 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:48 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:42 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:36 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 04:00 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Down the most points in history. Over 4.6%

Still a small percentage. Market was overpriced and due for a correction. No biggie to most of us that are in it for the long haul. Those that are gambling in day trading?...well.

I have a good 20+ years to build my 401k... Seeing the DOW drop like it has is pretty awesome. Everyone who knew anything about investing already knew that both stocks and bonds are overpriced due to the higher P/E rations and ultra low interest rates respectively. In a normal, healthy economy a 30 year mortgage should range between 6% - 8% depending on your credit rating.

These current rates are still too low for a healthy economy: https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/

If you are buying stock through a 401K...these plans are buying shares at the same time each month and dollar cost averaging. A down turn is actually good for the long term investor because it allows you to buy shares cheaper. That is the beauty of dollar cost averaging. Generally there are more days when the market is down..than up and so you end up buying on more down days than up days. Warren Buffett has said many times that this is the way most people should invest for retirement.

Yep, that's how I invest in the market. I don't have the time to do the day trading and timing the market is a fools errand IMHO. Sometimes you can do it but many times you will also miss out because conditions aren't "optimal". Buffet's advise is sage. I also liked Bogle's views on investing too. I'm invested with Vanguard.

You might want to check these guys out. They know how to time the market.

https://www.chartguys.com/

If its 401k investing you're looking for and want to secure your portfolio from another great recession algo investing is the way to go.

http://www.algotrades.net/

Unlike the last two market "crashes" this one occurred despite solid underpinnings which means it's likely not as bad as you dems are making it.

(02-05-2018 06:29 PM)TigerBlue4Ever Wrote:  Unlike the last two market "crashes" this one occurred despite solid underpinnings which means it's likely not as bad as you dems are making it.

I'm not going to speak to anyones political leanings, however, as I said earlier, this correction isnt abnormal. 311 trading days without a 5% pull back is abnormal and unnatural.

No reason to panic as of now. The XIV issue is worrisome right now though

(02-05-2018 06:13 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 06:04 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:48 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:42 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:36 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  Still a small percentage. Market was overpriced and due for a correction. No biggie to most of us that are in it for the long haul. Those that are gambling in day trading?...well.

I have a good 20+ years to build my 401k... Seeing the DOW drop like it has is pretty awesome. Everyone who knew anything about investing already knew that both stocks and bonds are overpriced due to the higher P/E rations and ultra low interest rates respectively. In a normal, healthy economy a 30 year mortgage should range between 6% - 8% depending on your credit rating.

These current rates are still too low for a healthy economy: https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/

If you are buying stock through a 401K...these plans are buying shares at the same time each month and dollar cost averaging. A down turn is actually good for the long term investor because it allows you to buy shares cheaper. That is the beauty of dollar cost averaging. Generally there are more days when the market is down..than up and so you end up buying on more down days than up days. Warren Buffett has said many times that this is the way most people should invest for retirement.

Yep, that's how I invest in the market. I don't have the time to do the day trading and timing the market is a fools errand IMHO. Sometimes you can do it but many times you will also miss out because conditions aren't "optimal". Buffet's advise is sage. I also liked Bogle's views on investing too. I'm invested with Vanguard.

You might want to check these guys out. They know how to time the market.

https://www.chartguys.com/

If its 401k investing you're looking for and want to secure your portfolio from another great recession algo investing is the way to go.

http://www.algotrades.net/

I like Chart Guys.

(02-05-2018 06:04 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:48 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:42 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:36 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 04:00 PM)Redwingtom Wrote:  Down the most points in history. Over 4.6%

Still a small percentage. Market was overpriced and due for a correction. No biggie to most of us that are in it for the long haul. Those that are gambling in day trading?...well.

I have a good 20+ years to build my 401k... Seeing the DOW drop like it has is pretty awesome. Everyone who knew anything about investing already knew that both stocks and bonds are overpriced due to the higher P/E rations and ultra low interest rates respectively. In a normal, healthy economy a 30 year mortgage should range between 6% - 8% depending on your credit rating.

These current rates are still too low for a healthy economy: https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/

If you are buying stock through a 401K...these plans are buying shares at the same time each month and dollar cost averaging. A down turn is actually good for the long term investor because it allows you to buy shares cheaper. That is the beauty of dollar cost averaging. Generally there are more days when the market is down..than up and so you end up buying on more down days than up days. Warren Buffett has said many times that this is the way most people should invest for retirement.

Yep, that's how I invest in the market. I don't have the time to do the day trading and timing the market is a fools errand IMHO. Sometimes you can do it but many times you will also miss out because conditions aren't "optimal". Buffet's advise is sage. I also liked Bogle's views on investing too. I'm invested with Vanguard.

Good choice...I made a lot of money in their Index 500 fund. They have the lowest fees out there. People neglect to look at fees. Over the long haul the few dollars you save in fees adds up and enhances your snowball effect. Another mistake people make is being too damn conservative. If you are outside 10 years of retirement?..You should be rolling the dice like crazy. Im not even sure that going to 5 years is a bad gamble now.

XIV just flashed crashed again. Down to 10. There will be funds closing up shop tomorrow. I wonder how Credit Suisse is feeling right about now.

(02-05-2018 06:39 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 06:04 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:48 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:42 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:36 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  Still a small percentage. Market was overpriced and due for a correction. No biggie to most of us that are in it for the long haul. Those that are gambling in day trading?...well.

I have a good 20+ years to build my 401k... Seeing the DOW drop like it has is pretty awesome. Everyone who knew anything about investing already knew that both stocks and bonds are overpriced due to the higher P/E rations and ultra low interest rates respectively. In a normal, healthy economy a 30 year mortgage should range between 6% - 8% depending on your credit rating.

These current rates are still too low for a healthy economy: https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/

If you are buying stock through a 401K...these plans are buying shares at the same time each month and dollar cost averaging. A down turn is actually good for the long term investor because it allows you to buy shares cheaper. That is the beauty of dollar cost averaging. Generally there are more days when the market is down..than up and so you end up buying on more down days than up days. Warren Buffett has said many times that this is the way most people should invest for retirement.

Yep, that's how I invest in the market. I don't have the time to do the day trading and timing the market is a fools errand IMHO. Sometimes you can do it but many times you will also miss out because conditions aren't "optimal". Buffet's advise is sage. I also liked Bogle's views on investing too. I'm invested with Vanguard.

Good choice...I made a lot of money in their Index 500 fund. They have the lowest fees out there. People neglect to look at fees. Over the long haul the few dollars you save in fees adds up and enhances your snowball effect. Another mistake people make is being too damn conservative. If you are outside 10 years of retirement?..You should be rolling the dice like crazy. Im not even sure that going to 5 years is a bad gamble now.

I'm 38.

I put about 65% of my investment money in a collection of 9 ETFs that range from Large Caps, Russell 2000, Emerging Markets, High dividend Yields, etc, etc etc etc

I have about 10% in a few individual stocks. Since 2015, those have been GM, Netflix, and, until 4 months ago, GE(ouch).

At least 15% is always cash with the remainder in the options market as insurance on a pull back or a volatility spike. Sometimes that is 10% sometimes that is 0%. As of 3pm, it was at 0% as I sold off my SPY short positions and /VX positions.

(02-05-2018 06:33 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 06:13 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 06:04 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:48 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:42 PM)miko33 Wrote:  I have a good 20+ years to build my 401k... Seeing the DOW drop like it has is pretty awesome. Everyone who knew anything about investing already knew that both stocks and bonds are overpriced due to the higher P/E rations and ultra low interest rates respectively. In a normal, healthy economy a 30 year mortgage should range between 6% - 8% depending on your credit rating.

These current rates are still too low for a healthy economy: https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/

If you are buying stock through a 401K...these plans are buying shares at the same time each month and dollar cost averaging. A down turn is actually good for the long term investor because it allows you to buy shares cheaper. That is the beauty of dollar cost averaging. Generally there are more days when the market is down..than up and so you end up buying on more down days than up days. Warren Buffett has said many times that this is the way most people should invest for retirement.

Yep, that's how I invest in the market. I don't have the time to do the day trading and timing the market is a fools errand IMHO. Sometimes you can do it but many times you will also miss out because conditions aren't "optimal". Buffet's advise is sage. I also liked Bogle's views on investing too. I'm invested with Vanguard.

You might want to check these guys out. They know how to time the market.

https://www.chartguys.com/

If its 401k investing you're looking for and want to secure your portfolio from another great recession algo investing is the way to go.

http://www.algotrades.net/

I like Chart Guys.

Good stuff. I timed it a few on my own with success. I just created a "sell" price and and a "buy" price and stuck to it without any debate with myself. I came out all but once on top. I missed once in the 80s by not holding longer..but..WTH.

(02-05-2018 06:44 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 06:39 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 06:04 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:48 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:42 PM)miko33 Wrote:  I have a good 20+ years to build my 401k... Seeing the DOW drop like it has is pretty awesome. Everyone who knew anything about investing already knew that both stocks and bonds are overpriced due to the higher P/E rations and ultra low interest rates respectively. In a normal, healthy economy a 30 year mortgage should range between 6% - 8% depending on your credit rating.

These current rates are still too low for a healthy economy: https://www.wellsfargo.com/mortgage/rates/

If you are buying stock through a 401K...these plans are buying shares at the same time each month and dollar cost averaging. A down turn is actually good for the long term investor because it allows you to buy shares cheaper. That is the beauty of dollar cost averaging. Generally there are more days when the market is down..than up and so you end up buying on more down days than up days. Warren Buffett has said many times that this is the way most people should invest for retirement.

Yep, that's how I invest in the market. I don't have the time to do the day trading and timing the market is a fools errand IMHO. Sometimes you can do it but many times you will also miss out because conditions aren't "optimal". Buffet's advise is sage. I also liked Bogle's views on investing too. I'm invested with Vanguard.

Good choice...I made a lot of money in their Index 500 fund. They have the lowest fees out there. People neglect to look at fees. Over the long haul the few dollars you save in fees adds up and enhances your snowball effect. Another mistake people make is being too damn conservative. If you are outside 10 years of retirement?..You should be rolling the dice like crazy. Im not even sure that going to 5 years is a bad gamble now.

I'm 38.

I put about 65% of my investment money in a collection of 9 ETFs that range from Large Caps, Russell 2000, Emerging Markets, High dividend Yields, etc, etc etc etc

I have about 10% in a few individual stocks. Since 2015, those have been GM, Netflix, and, until 4 months ago, GE(ouch).

At least 15% is always cash with the remainder in the options market as insurance on a pull back or a volatility spike. Sometimes that is 10% sometimes that is 0%. As of 3pm, it was at 0% as I sold off my SPY short positions and /VX positions.

You are much more savvy than I was. I just stuck to mutual funds. I did not have the time or knowledge to deal with individual stocks. Sounds like you got your schit together.

(02-05-2018 06:44 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 06:33 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 06:13 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 06:04 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:48 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  If you are buying stock through a 401K...these plans are buying shares at the same time each month and dollar cost averaging. A down turn is actually good for the long term investor because it allows you to buy shares cheaper. That is the beauty of dollar cost averaging. Generally there are more days when the market is down..than up and so you end up buying on more down days than up days. Warren Buffett has said many times that this is the way most people should invest for retirement.

Yep, that's how I invest in the market. I don't have the time to do the day trading and timing the market is a fools errand IMHO. Sometimes you can do it but many times you will also miss out because conditions aren't "optimal". Buffet's advise is sage. I also liked Bogle's views on investing too. I'm invested with Vanguard.

You might want to check these guys out. They know how to time the market.

https://www.chartguys.com/

If its 401k investing you're looking for and want to secure your portfolio from another great recession algo investing is the way to go.

http://www.algotrades.net/

I like Chart Guys.

Good stuff. I timed it a few on my own with success. I just created a "sell" price and and a "buy" price and stuck to it without any debate with myself. I came out all but once on top. I missed once in the 80s by not holding longer..but..WTH.

I'm just not built for day trading, but I do buy/sell options as insurance. You definitely have to have your exit points before you go in and stick to them. AND never think about "what if".

(02-05-2018 06:46 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 06:44 PM)aTxTIGER Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 06:39 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 06:04 PM)miko33 Wrote:  

(02-05-2018 05:48 PM)Fo Shizzle Wrote:  If you are buying stock through a 401K...these plans are buying shares at the same time each month and dollar cost averaging. A down turn is actually good for the long term investor because it allows you to buy shares cheaper. That is the beauty of dollar cost averaging. Generally there are more days when the market is down..than up and so you end up buying on more down days than up days. Warren Buffett has said many times that this is the way most people should invest for retirement.

Yep, that's how I invest in the market. I don't have the time to do the day trading and timing the market is a fools errand IMHO. Sometimes you can do it but many times you will also miss out because conditions aren't "optimal". Buffet's advise is sage. I also liked Bogle's views on investing too. I'm invested with Vanguard.

Good choice...I made a lot of money in their Index 500 fund. They have the lowest fees out there. People neglect to look at fees. Over the long haul the few dollars you save in fees adds up and enhances your snowball effect. Another mistake people make is being too damn conservative. If you are outside 10 years of retirement?..You should be rolling the dice like crazy. Im not even sure that going to 5 years is a bad gamble now.

I'm 38.

I put about 65% of my investment money in a collection of 9 ETFs that range from Large Caps, Russell 2000, Emerging Markets, High dividend Yields, etc, etc etc etc

I have about 10% in a few individual stocks. Since 2015, those have been GM, Netflix, and, until 4 months ago, GE(ouch).

At least 15% is always cash with the remainder in the options market as insurance on a pull back or a volatility spike. Sometimes that is 10% sometimes that is 0%. As of 3pm, it was at 0% as I sold off my SPY short positions and /VX positions.

You are much more savvy than I was. I just stuck to mutual funds. I did not have the time or knowledge to deal with individual stocks. Sounds like you got your schit together.

i had a good mentor. I dont do much with individual stocks. I buy just a few and stick with them for at least 2-3 years. I stick with ETFs for the most part.

I think the economy argument trump loyalists use is about to dry up. The stock market is crashing and I have a feeling we haven’t seen the worst of it. I could also see unemployment skyrocketing and more and more businesses leaving the U.S. Buckle up, there are some very dark times ahead.