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Whither the A10 and Big East?
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Post: #1
Whither the A10 and Big East?
The huge football money has strengthened the P5 football schools (formerly the BCS 6) vs. the rest of the NCAA in basketball.

The A10 and Big East have stayed relevant. But will they continue to do so?

8 of the 14 A10 schools have losing records. 4 others have at least 9 losses. Only St. Bonaventure at 16-6 and Rhode Island at 19-3 are better. It could conceivably be a one bid league this year. Should they lose Dayton and St. Louis, they would have no schools with consistently strong fan bases. VCU and Rhode Island were the only others in the top 100 last year in attendance.

The old 7 Big East schools are 1st and 5th through last in the Big East. Newer members Xavier, Creighton and Butler and 2nd-4th behind Villanova. Georgetown is 3-8, DePaul 2-8 and St. John's 0-11 in conference.
02-04-2018 02:31 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: Whither the A10 and Big East?
Let's talk about the Big East. Fox (the same Fox that sold out to ESPN) threw the Big East a large chunk of change for its TV rights and they have performed as expected on TV deal. If the TV model changes what is there future? In the near to mid term its a good deal in light of the massive cord cutting rampant across the industry that is forcing the next round of TV deal valuations down.

A10's situation is they aren't paid anything (about 1 million per year for their conference) but they do have significant linear TV distribution for basketball, on par with what the AAC has for 2nd tier.

AAC I'd recommend picking up St. Louis, Dayton to add more depth/content in men's basketball then going linear with a 5 million per school deal on NBC with OTA football games. That would really bump the A10 off linear TV distribution.

In summary, I think the Big East is going to be in the game for a while and the AAC should put the A10 out of business.
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2018 02:56 PM by Kittonhead.)
02-04-2018 02:48 PM
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Post: #3
RE: Whither the A10 and Big East?
The A-10 has pretty consistently been a multi bid league until this year. We will probably need more data to know if this year is just an anomaly - a down year - or whether there has been a persistent decline in that league's fortunes due to realignmment forces.

As for the Big East, it doesn't matter to me whether the tournament teams in any year were from the original Catholic 7 or from newer additions, as long as their share of the bids stays relatively constant. If they get 4-6 bids a year, they are a rousing success in my book.
02-04-2018 02:59 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: Whither the A10 and Big East?
A10 has had to rely on VCU and Dayton these last few years to keep things multibid. Weak at the bottom for years.

Conference RPI

Big East 0.5925
Big 12 0.5917
Southeastern 0.5899
Atlantic Coast 0.5890
PAC 12 0.5660
Big Ten 0.5564
American Athletic 0.5476

Missouri Valley 0.5307
Mountain West 0.5236
Atlantic 10 0.5133
Mid American 0.5080
West Coast 0.5014
Colonial Athletic 0.5014
Conference USA 0.4869

Big East is #1 this year. They'll stay in the power range for a very long time.

A10 is rated #10 this year just ahead of the MAC in RPI. In a few years they probably won't have a linear TV deal in basketball bigger than what the MAC has.
02-04-2018 03:26 PM
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mikeinsec127 Offline
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RE: Whither the A10 and Big East?
The A-10 has been slowly declining for a long time. It is not a well run conference. Mens basketball seems to be the only sport that matters to the conference. It has had a crappy TV deal for years, that leaves it with a lack of exposure and $$ compared to the BE. Over the years, it has literally lost a power conference worth of teams to other conferences. A list of former members: WV, VT, PSU, RU, Temple, Butler, Pitt, UNC-C, Xavier and Nova. Overall, the schools to replace them have not brought the same level of success or competitiveness to the court. At the same time, schools in core basketball markets - Fordham, LaSalle, St Joes, Duquesne - have underperformed. The numbers don't support it, but at this point I would rate the WCC higher than the A-10 simply because they are both probably two bid leagues, but the WCC will do that with four fewer schools.
02-04-2018 05:13 PM
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Bogg Offline
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RE: Whither the A10 and Big East?
Big East is fine, they've settled into a nice niche as the top-end conference for non-football schools and are the equivalent of any other high-end conference in basketball. The A10's at a crossroads though, and it'll be interesting to see if they rebound and can maintain 2-3 bids a year or fall off semi-permanently.
02-04-2018 05:23 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: Whither the A10 and Big East?
The TV deal situation hasn't completely cycled through following realignment. A realignment round of 2010-2017 that is just concluding now with the Wichita State move to the AAC.

For this reason the A10 still has a linear presence an excess of the linear conferences.

The last A10 TV deal was signed for 2012-13. It was an 8 year deal with a ton of linear TV deal appearances. The justification for the deal was the A10 had just picked up Butler and VCU who were peaking at the moment of the addition. It was also signed right before the Big East split.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-basket...n-cbs-nbc/

Flash forward to 2017-18 and we are in year 6 of that TV deal. Butler is long gone. The A10 has fallen way behind the Big East and now the AAC in basketball.

I don't think in 2 years time once the AAC renegotiates there will be very much left to the A10's TV deal.
(This post was last modified: 02-04-2018 05:48 PM by Kittonhead.)
02-04-2018 05:44 PM
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Kittonhead Offline
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RE: Whither the A10 and Big East?
Slight correction the A-10 TV deal is worth 350k per school, 5 million per year total.

https://www.bigeastcoastbias.com/2012/10...ll-schools

My prediction is they'll get bumped down to the same number of appearances as the MVC and MAC and opening the way for linear appearances by CUSA and SBC basketball which because of the cycling of contracts are lacking linear at the moment.

CUSA has 6 linear appearances on CBSSN in MBB for this regular season.

https://search.xfinity.com/#web/CUSA 2017-18 Men's basketball TV schedule/1
02-04-2018 06:34 PM
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billybobby777 Offline
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RE: Whither the A10 and Big East?
No. Last place big East St Johns (0-11) beat Duke. The big east is a power. The A-10 is a league for high school gym schools and St Louis
02-04-2018 08:42 PM
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spenser Online
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RE: Whither the A10 and Big East?
(02-04-2018 08:42 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  No. Last place big East St Johns (0-11) beat Duke. The big east is a power. The A-10 is a league for high school gym schools and St Louis

Dayton has a great Arena
02-04-2018 09:53 PM
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kmdhoya Offline
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RE: Whither the A10 and Big East?
The Big East is doing fine against the P5 over the past 5 years with a record of 129-104.
02-04-2018 10:38 PM
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RE: Whither the A10 and Big East?
(02-04-2018 08:42 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  No. Last place big East St Johns (0-11) beat Duke. The big east is a power. The A-10 is a league for high school gym schools and St Louis

Fordham, St Joe's, GW, LaSalle , St Bonvature, Duquesne and Davidson play in dumps. The other half play in better arenas than ECU. They definitely play better basketball than ECU as well.
02-04-2018 10:42 PM
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templefootballfan Offline
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RE: Whither the A10 and Big East?
your right kitten, A-10 is sliping
AAC ought to be looking at VCU, Mass, St Lious & Dayton
MVC is geting better, Dayton & St Lious should thinking about MVC
saving on travel & packed Conf tourn would help
02-05-2018 12:45 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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RE: Whither the A10 and Big East?
The Big East is in a completely different position than the A-10. In basketball, the Big East has legit power conference status (both in terms of TV money and overall perception) and that's not likely to go away. The conference also has complete poaching power over every non-FBS Division conference outside of the Ivy League. While a lot of people on this board like to talk about how the next Big East TV contract might be much less, they keep neglecting the fact that they're locked in on that deal until 2025. This isn't a matter where cord cutting is going to cause that revenue stream to suddenly going away (and that's assuming that the worst case scenario that the Big East would receive less in the future, as I actually think the Big East's stature is much higher than what many pundits anticipated when the current version was formed). On that point, the Big East is simply like every other conference in terms of where future media revenue is going to come from.

The A-10 is in a very precarious position, although to be fair, that's going to be the case for every league outside of the P5, Big East and Ivy League. To the extent that, say, Dayton or St. Louis (or my sleeper expansion pick of Davidson) become extremely desirable, the Big East can easily pick them off in the same manner that a P5 conference can pick off any school that achieves superstar status in the AAC, MWC or the rest of the G5. The A-10 is going to be a mish-mash of the best parts available in the same way that the AAC is for football. Now, they can certainly be good from year-to-year and take advantage of how the Big East might not like off-the-court factors of certain expansion targets (e.g. the location and market of Dayton), but it will never be stable.
(This post was last modified: 02-05-2018 09:25 AM by Frank the Tank.)
02-05-2018 09:24 AM
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billybobby777 Offline
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RE: Whither the A10 and Big East?
(02-04-2018 10:42 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  
(02-04-2018 08:42 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  No. Last place big East St Johns (0-11) beat Duke. The big east is a power. The A-10 is a league for high school gym schools and St Louis

Fordham, St Joe's, GW, LaSalle , St Bonvature, Duquesne and Davidson play in dumps. The other half play in better arenas than ECU. They definitely play better basketball than ECU as well.

Comparing them to ECU? Hahahaha!!!! That's funny!
ECU is a football school with a p5 stadium. The A10 schools you mentioned are basketball only schools.......and you compared them to.....ECU! Hahahaha....
02-05-2018 09:32 AM
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Bogg Offline
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RE: Whither the A10 and Big East?
(02-05-2018 09:32 AM)billybobby777 Wrote:  
(02-04-2018 10:42 PM)DoubleRSU Wrote:  
(02-04-2018 08:42 PM)billybobby777 Wrote:  No. Last place big East St Johns (0-11) beat Duke. The big east is a power. The A-10 is a league for high school gym schools and St Louis

Fordham, St Joe's, GW, LaSalle , St Bonvature, Duquesne and Davidson play in dumps. The other half play in better arenas than ECU. They definitely play better basketball than ECU as well.

Comparing them to ECU? Hahahaha!!!! That's funny!
ECU is a football school with a p5 stadium. The A10 schools you mentioned are basketball only schools.......and you compared them to.....ECU! Hahahaha....

I mean, they're not wrong - the top end of the A10 plays better basketball than ECU and many have a better facility as well. It is what it is. Given that they're basketball-first schools, it'd honestly be kind of weird if that wasn't the case.
(This post was last modified: 02-05-2018 10:40 AM by Bogg.)
02-05-2018 10:31 AM
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RE: Whither the A10 and Big East?
The A10 deal ends in 2020, I think? It's a share between ESPN, CBS, and NBC.

While the A10's performance has slipped over time, it's content that's been driving these deals. 150 games over 8 years is about 18-19/year; it's not that much for a conference that size and with the parity within it (as well as its hauls in the non-conference). There's room for the A10 to grow. Then again, to stay visible, does the A10 give up content for the same or less money? A similar deal monetarily for 20 games a season for five years?
02-06-2018 04:45 AM
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templefootballfan Offline
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RE: Whither the A10 and Big East?
you got Davidson as expansion target for the BE, wow.
im still trying to figure out why A-10 took them.
now I do see BE & AAC shying away from Dayton due to Cin schools.
02-06-2018 05:44 AM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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RE: Whither the A10 and Big East?
(02-06-2018 05:44 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  you got Davidson as expansion target for the BE, wow.
im still trying to figure out why A-10 took them.
now I do see BE & AAC shying away from Dayton due to Cin schools.

I wouldn't quite call Davidson a "target", but they ought to be in the mix as much as anyone in the event that the Big East ever decides to expand.

Think like a university president and not like a fan: Davidson is an ELITE academic school (if there was an Ivy League for liberal arts colleges, Davidson would likely be a member), has a location in the Charlotte TV market, provides an Eastern option in a 2-team Big East expansion scenario when the other school would almost certainly come from the Midwest (which is important for the Eastern-based Catholic 7 so that the league doesn't become "too Midwestern"), and has solid on-the-court credentials in terms of NCAA Tournament appearances. The main knock on Davidson is that it has a small enrollment size, but as I've stated elsewhere, that is generally irrelevant (as people on this board tend to vastly underrate the conference realignment value of private schools and overrate the conference realignment value of non-flagship/flagship-equivalent public schools based on size).
02-06-2018 09:33 AM
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RE: Whither the A10 and Big East?
Davidson would be a very interesting long-term candidate. It will be interesting to see how they invest in their program once McKillop retires. They had just five NCAA Tournament appearances before he was hired there (but he has been there a very long time). They have the location and institutional profile that the conference would desire.
02-06-2018 10:58 AM
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