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6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
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nachoman91 Offline
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Post: #41
RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
(02-05-2018 11:04 AM)Spinal070508 Wrote:  WSU lost again and is going to drop farther down the seed projections. The newest one on cbssports has them as an 8. How many more can they lose and be safely in? They also don't have any big wins. Baylor was it for them and they are 13-10 now. Marquette and OK St might be their next 2 best wins.

If we drop 1 to WSU and 1 to out of SMU/UH/WSU2 we are looking at a 4 or 5 seed. The AAC gets no respect and they will drop us dramatically when we lose.

This is the most realistic scenario.

UC wins out = 2-3 seed
UC loses 1 = 3-4 seed
UC loses 2 = 4-6 seed

Keep in mind UC was 29-5 last year, had two top 25 wins and got a 6 seed. This year UC has zero top 25 wins and its likely no remaining games will be against teams that end the year in the top 25. So no room for error.
(and to clarify, when I say top 25 I mean top 25 in the computer rankings, not human rankings because the committee looks at computer rankings)
 
02-05-2018 03:35 PM
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Spinal070508 Offline
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Post: #42
RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
(02-05-2018 12:14 PM)Bearcat01 Wrote:  
(02-04-2018 06:12 PM)CliftonAve Wrote:  
(02-04-2018 03:27 PM)rosewater Wrote:  
(02-04-2018 03:23 PM)rtaylor Wrote:  What is the obsession with X? It keeps creeping into several threads. Who freaking cares what they are doing.

Agree, and the mention that we are better. They crushed us head to head. I sounds very hollowwwwwwwwwww when we claim superior through metrics.

I’m going to be honest, outside of the Shootout I haven’t seen them play all year.

We playing better basketball than them right now. Take Blueitt out game we win easily

Take out Evans or Clark and UC loses. It goes both ways
 
02-05-2018 03:37 PM
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Spinal070508 Offline
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Post: #43
RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
(02-05-2018 03:35 PM)nachoman91 Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 11:04 AM)Spinal070508 Wrote:  WSU lost again and is going to drop farther down the seed projections. The newest one on cbssports has them as an 8. How many more can they lose and be safely in? They also don't have any big wins. Baylor was it for them and they are 13-10 now. Marquette and OK St might be their next 2 best wins.

If we drop 1 to WSU and 1 to out of SMU/UH/WSU2 we are looking at a 4 or 5 seed. The AAC gets no respect and they will drop us dramatically when we lose.

This is the most realistic scenario.

UC wins out = 2-3 seed
UC loses 1 = 3-4 seed
UC loses 2 = 4-6 seed

Keep in mind UC was 29-5 last year, had two top 25 wins and got a 6 seed. This year UC has zero top 25 wins and its likely no remaining games will be against teams that end the year in the top 25. So no room for error.
(and to clarify, when I say top 25 I mean top 25 in the computer rankings, not human rankings because the committee looks at computer rankings)

Is WSU outside the top 25 in the computer rankings now?
 
02-05-2018 03:39 PM
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nachoman91 Offline
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Post: #44
RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
(02-05-2018 03:39 PM)Spinal070508 Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 03:35 PM)nachoman91 Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 11:04 AM)Spinal070508 Wrote:  WSU lost again and is going to drop farther down the seed projections. The newest one on cbssports has them as an 8. How many more can they lose and be safely in? They also don't have any big wins. Baylor was it for them and they are 13-10 now. Marquette and OK St might be their next 2 best wins.

If we drop 1 to WSU and 1 to out of SMU/UH/WSU2 we are looking at a 4 or 5 seed. The AAC gets no respect and they will drop us dramatically when we lose.

This is the most realistic scenario.

UC wins out = 2-3 seed
UC loses 1 = 3-4 seed
UC loses 2 = 4-6 seed

Keep in mind UC was 29-5 last year, had two top 25 wins and got a 6 seed. This year UC has zero top 25 wins and its likely no remaining games will be against teams that end the year in the top 25. So no room for error.
(and to clarify, when I say top 25 I mean top 25 in the computer rankings, not human rankings because the committee looks at computer rankings)

Is WSU outside the top 25 in the computer rankings now?

Yes, they are 28 in RPI which is sadly the main metric the committee uses.
 
02-05-2018 03:55 PM
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stxrunner Offline
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Post: #45
RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
(02-05-2018 08:54 AM)uccheese Wrote:  The difference between a 2 and a 3 mainly comes down to the location of the POD. If we are a 3 seed, but it's because we get beat out by Kansas, Arizona, etc that is going to end up fine. If we are a 3 because we got beat out by WV, X, Auburn that is what would push us out to Dal, SD or Boise.

With the way they assign pods, if we are a 3 seed, there is no way they can send us to Boise or SD. If noone above takes those locations, we would get the next closest and the 4 seeds would get the 4 spots in Boise and SD.

If we are a 4 seed, good chance we are going out west again. A 5 seed would put all the locations back in play again. We should be aiming for a 3. I think if we lose once or less we have it for sure. Twice and it will be close.
 
02-05-2018 04:29 PM
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InspectorHound Offline
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Post: #46
RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
Blueitt isn't getting drafted. Evans is a much better prospect.
 
02-05-2018 04:54 PM
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CincyBro Offline
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Post: #47
RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
(02-05-2018 04:54 PM)InspectorHound Wrote:  Blueitt isn't getting drafted. Evans is a much better prospect.

Next year he's a first rounder, hope he stays put.
 
02-05-2018 04:55 PM
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RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
(02-04-2018 05:17 PM)doss2 Wrote:  Most teams have 8 games left and Conference Tourney.

To early but right now it is:

1. Villa
2. VA
3. Purdue

No. 4 is arguable between Duke, MSU, X and perhaps Kansas.

If in doubt it will be Dookies.

MSU? Really? They don't have any bad losses, but they have 3 losses against a schedule (118th in RPI) that is even weaker than ours (88th in RPI).

Record vs top-50 RPI teams:
MSU: 1-3 , with 1 more opportunity
Cincinnati: 4-2, with 3 more opportunities

Record vs RPI 51-100 teams:
MSU: 6-0
Cincinnati: 6-0

It's not just RPI. We compare pretty well against them if you look at any rating system.
 
02-05-2018 05:44 PM
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bearcatmark Offline
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RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
Everyone around hear seems to be really down on UC's resume, but I think it may be sneak good if the committee uses the tier 1 wins, tier 2 wins system like they used the RPI system. UC isn't losing games and is racking up a bunch of tier 1, tier 2 wins. I feel like the committee may view UC more positively than many believe. Its hard to say because how the committee uses the new grouping mechanism is unknown.
 
02-05-2018 05:49 PM
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Billy_Bearcat Offline
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RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
(02-05-2018 05:49 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Everyone around hear seems to be really down on UC's resume, but I think it may be sneak good if the committee uses the tier 1 wins, tier 2 wins system like they used the RPI system. UC isn't losing games and is racking up a bunch of tier 1, tier 2 wins. I feel like the committee may view UC more positively than many believe. Its hard to say because how the committee uses the new grouping mechanism is unknown.

I think most are looking at what they did to the AAC seeding last year and are trying to factor that in
 
02-05-2018 06:20 PM
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Post: #51
RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
(02-05-2018 04:55 PM)CincyBro Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 04:54 PM)InspectorHound Wrote:  Blueitt isn't getting drafted. Evans is a much better prospect.

Next year he's a first rounder, hope he stays put.

Why would you assume he's a different prospect next year? I would love the guy to stay but guys don't always benefit from more time in college and would be an older prospect if he stayed. He's lucky where he's young for his grade so he won't have the age concern like SK but he's likely to be the same type of player next year as he is now.
 
02-05-2018 06:24 PM
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bearcatmark Offline
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Post: #52
RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
(02-05-2018 06:20 PM)Billy_Bearcat Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 05:49 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Everyone around hear seems to be really down on UC's resume, but I think it may be sneak good if the committee uses the tier 1 wins, tier 2 wins system like they used the RPI system. UC isn't losing games and is racking up a bunch of tier 1, tier 2 wins. I feel like the committee may view UC more positively than many believe. Its hard to say because how the committee uses the new grouping mechanism is unknown.

I think most are looking at what they did to the AAC seeding last year and are trying to factor that in

Last year UC was seeded exactly in line with their kenpom rating. last year UC only had 3 top 50 wins and 4 other top 100 wins. Last year SMU beat UC handily twice, but UC was SMU's only win over another tournament team. People look at last year and think the AAC teams were underseeded. I thought UC was maybe a seed to low and SMU by resume may have even been a seed to high (despite SMU clearly being better than UC late in the year). This year, UC's resume looks totally different.
 
02-05-2018 06:28 PM
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CincyBro Offline
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Post: #53
RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
(02-05-2018 06:24 PM)RealDeal Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 04:55 PM)CincyBro Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 04:54 PM)InspectorHound Wrote:  Blueitt isn't getting drafted. Evans is a much better prospect.

Next year he's a first rounder, hope he stays put.

Why would you assume he's a different prospect next year? I would love the guy to stay but guys don't always benefit from more time in college and would be an older prospect if he stayed. He's lucky where he's young for his grade so he won't have the age concern like SK but he's likely to be the same type of player next year as he is now.

Disagree, he needs another year of practice and playing with the ball in his hand before he's ready to be a big timer ( 1st round pick ) in the pros, does not consistently create easy shots for himself or others right now.
 
(This post was last modified: 02-05-2018 06:38 PM by CincyBro.)
02-05-2018 06:37 PM
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CallMeSlim Offline
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Post: #54
RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
(02-05-2018 05:49 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Everyone around hear seems to be really down on UC's resume, but I think it may be sneak good if the committee uses the tier 1 wins, tier 2 wins system like they used the RPI system. UC isn't losing games and is racking up a bunch of tier 1, tier 2 wins. I feel like the committee may view UC more positively than many believe. Its hard to say because how the committee uses the new grouping mechanism is unknown.


the part that people don't seem to be factoring in is all our work has been done away from home. all of our group 1 wins are away from home. of our projected 9 group 1 games, 8 are away from home.


this year with the group system a road win vs a team with an rpi of 75 is the same as a home win vs a team with an rpi of 30. neutral win over 32 rpi buffalo is a big win, road win over 34 temple is a big win, road win over 54 ucla is a big win.


our group 1 and 2 record right now stacks up against about anybody.
 
02-05-2018 07:03 PM
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RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
(02-05-2018 06:37 PM)CincyBro Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 06:24 PM)RealDeal Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 04:55 PM)CincyBro Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 04:54 PM)InspectorHound Wrote:  Blueitt isn't getting drafted. Evans is a much better prospect.

Next year he's a first rounder, hope he stays put.

Why would you assume he's a different prospect next year? I would love the guy to stay but guys don't always benefit from more time in college and would be an older prospect if he stayed. He's lucky where he's young for his grade so he won't have the age concern like SK but he's likely to be the same type of player next year as he is now.

Disagree, he needs another year of practice and playing with the ball in his hand before he's ready to be a big timer ( 1st round pick ) in the pros, does not consistently create easy shots for himself or others right now.
Unless he is a certain Round 1 he should stay.
 
02-05-2018 07:04 PM
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eroc Offline
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RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
(02-05-2018 07:04 PM)doss2 Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 06:37 PM)CincyBro Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 06:24 PM)RealDeal Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 04:55 PM)CincyBro Wrote:  
(02-05-2018 04:54 PM)InspectorHound Wrote:  Blueitt isn't getting drafted. Evans is a much better prospect.

Next year he's a first rounder, hope he stays put.

Why would you assume he's a different prospect next year? I would love the guy to stay but guys don't always benefit from more time in college and would be an older prospect if he stayed. He's lucky where he's young for his grade so he won't have the age concern like SK but he's likely to be the same type of player next year as he is now.

Disagree, he needs another year of practice and playing with the ball in his hand before he's ready to be a big timer ( 1st round pick ) in the pros, does not consistently create easy shots for himself or others right now.
Unless he is a certain Round 1 he should stay.

i'd be shocked if his stats or his draft stock improve all that much next season. He'll have to shoulder the load that Gary and KW carried this season. He'll be the target of the opponents game plan. i don't know exactly what one expects in terms of development that he can't get practicing at the next level. Maybe he's a second rounder but he's way more talented athletically then Killa and Killa, with a substantial detour, made the L. it'll be way easier for scouts to doubt him if he's unable to produce at the same level as he has this season.
 
02-05-2018 07:16 PM
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RealDeal Offline
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RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
(02-05-2018 07:16 PM)eroc Wrote:  i'd be shocked if his stats or his draft stock improve all that much next season. He'll have to shoulder the load that Gary and KW carried this season. He'll be the target of the opponents game plan. i don't know exactly what one expects in terms of development that he can't get practicing at the next level. Maybe he's a second rounder but he's way more talented athletically then Killa and Killa, with a substantial detour, made the L. it'll be way easier for scouts to doubt him if he's unable to produce at the same level as he has this season.
That's what I would advise him. If you stay it's a gamble. Regardless of whether he's a first or second rounder you can work on your game at the next level as a full time job. Your SK comparison is dead on. SK does one thing better than Evans, take more shots. He's light years a better prospect and I think he's going to be a first round pick.
 
(This post was last modified: 02-05-2018 07:24 PM by RealDeal.)
02-05-2018 07:19 PM
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RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
Any development from another year in college will be offset by being another year older in the minds of NBA scouts. I think he can work his way into the first round by the end of this season.
 
02-05-2018 07:19 PM
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jarr Offline
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RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
There's always a chance that he could explode his Senior year, and be a 1st team AA, in which case he could improve his stock. And maybe coming back to get a degree and go to a final 4 could be enticing. I hope he stays for selfish reasons, but I'm sure if he goes he'll find his way on a roster one way or the other.
 
02-05-2018 08:24 PM
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RE: 6 Committee Metric used 2/4/2018
There is less than a 10% chance he comes back. Especially if we make it past the first weekend.
 
02-05-2018 09:26 PM
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