Exxon released a worst case and an expected case on future oil demand.

Worst case shows a 20% drop. Expected shows a 20% rise.

They do expect electric cars to go from 3% to 40%.

https://www.bloomberg.com/technology

(02-02-2018 08:16 PM)bullet Wrote:  Exxon released a worst case and an expected case on future oil demand.

Worst case shows a 20% drop. Expected shows a 20% rise.

They do expect electric cars to go from 3% to 40%.

https://www.bloomberg.com/technology

Oil is essential to plastics and so many other related products not easily replaced. Replacing oil in lubricants and aviation fuel is going to be difficult. Diesel and gasoline are going to be hard to replace in rural areas and developing economies.

My hunch is developed nations will see dropping demand for oil especially if we see wider adoption of electric vehicles, that will mean faster improvement in batteries and thus more adoption of variable output electric generation such as wind and solar. While developing nations can't afford the capital investment to pursue a similar path, far cheaper to replicate the infrastructure that built the industrialized world to an electric based economy.