Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Author Message
The Cutter of Bish Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,286
Joined: Mar 2013
Reputation: 80
I Root For: the little guy
Location:
Post: #1
Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
With several weeks left to play, the dust is starting to settle in conference races, and a bracket is starting to take shape...

...except for the non-majors.

Last year, there was a disparity in RPI and KP with Wichita State. KenPom loved the Shockers...RPI, not so much. It didn't matter in the end, and Wichita grabbed the auto-bid. Illinois State, otoh...

This year, there are several teams looking very good in one place, and not so hot in the other. And, as major conference programs are seeing their places secured into the RPI 40's and now 50's, where it puts these non-majors, with the added tiering component to qualify any given record, who is really in, and who is not, even if they don't win their conference's auto bid?

Checking out Warrennolan, Rhode Island (9) and Nevada (14) would look like locks, but, both have 1-3 marks versus "Group 1" opponents. UNR has some KenPom love at 17, you have to look down the rankings a bit to find Rhodie...at 34.

Gonzaga is this year's Wichita State. While 4-3 versus Group 1 teams, and KenPom crushing hard at 9, RPI's got them in that horrible bubble zone, 57th, and behind the likes of Temple, Houston, and Georgia, with clubs like Maryland and SMU right behind them. SMC is more loved by the two metrics, 22 RPI, 11 KP...but only a combined 4-1 versus Groups 1 and 2. Nobody expects either to lose again except to the other...is there really room for both in this tournament? And if Gonzaga doesn't get the better of SMC again...is AQ their only hope (by way of a SMC WCC tournament early exit)?

There are others posing some questions with odd numbers...MTSU (24 RPI/41 KP) and Buffalo (31/81), and some with closer-matching ones like WKU (38/45), Boise State (40/47), and NMSU (46/40). None of them look like locks, even if some could probably play the second weekend.

I'm left to wonder, what's the safety threshold for any of these teams? Must they all win AQ, or, who really can "slack off" just a bit during their conference tournaments?
02-02-2018 03:12 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply

BePcr07 Offline
Special Teams
*

Posts: 808
Joined: Dec 2015
Reputation: 43
I Root For: Boise St & Zags
Location:
Post: #2
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
The non-AQ mid-majors are almost always the same: Gonzaga, St. Mary's, BYU (occasionally), MWC's +1 (sometimes 2), AAC's +2-3, and A-10's +1-2. CUSA has the ability to get a +1.
02-02-2018 03:16 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
The Cutter of Bish Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,286
Joined: Mar 2013
Reputation: 80
I Root For: the little guy
Location:
Post: #3
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
A10 is so bad that a random bad loss or two for the Rams could put Rhode Island in AQ-or-bust territory. Nevada wouldn't have to win AQ in the Mountain West, but Boise pretty much has to.

I'm not convinced those in the AAC are even getting all of their work done. Temple got one against Wichita, but it was in Philly, and Wichita is slowly starting to tumble metrically. Wichita is a lock...but they may not be Group 1 by season's end for Temple or Houston. SMU shouldn't even be in the conversation right now. Temple's only there because their SOS is so darn high.
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2018 03:24 PM by The Cutter of Bish.)
02-02-2018 03:23 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
ShockerDR Offline
Water Engineer
*

Posts: 70
Joined: Apr 2017
Reputation: 5
I Root For: Wichita, KState
Location: Wichita
Post: #4
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-02-2018 03:23 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  A10 is so bad that a random bad loss or two for the Rams could put Rhode Island in AQ-or-bust territory. Nevada wouldn't have to win AQ in the Mountain West, but Boise pretty much has to.

I'm not convinced those in the AAC are even getting all of their work done. Temple got one against Wichita, but it was in Philly, and Wichita is slowly starting to tumble metrically. Wichita is a lock...but they may not be Group 1 by season's end for Temple or Houston. SMU shouldn't even be in the conversation right now. Temple's only there because their SOS is so darn high.

Temple also has some really putrid losses (Tulane, GW, La Salle) to offset those strong wins. It's AQ or bust for them.
02-02-2018 03:33 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
stever20 Online
Legend
*

Posts: 29,920
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 282
I Root For: College Sports
Location:
Post: #5
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-02-2018 03:33 PM)ShockerDR Wrote:  
(02-02-2018 03:23 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  A10 is so bad that a random bad loss or two for the Rams could put Rhode Island in AQ-or-bust territory. Nevada wouldn't have to win AQ in the Mountain West, but Boise pretty much has to.

I'm not convinced those in the AAC are even getting all of their work done. Temple got one against Wichita, but it was in Philly, and Wichita is slowly starting to tumble metrically. Wichita is a lock...but they may not be Group 1 by season's end for Temple or Houston. SMU shouldn't even be in the conversation right now. Temple's only there because their SOS is so darn high.

Temple also has some really putrid losses (Tulane, GW, La Salle) to offset those strong wins. It's AQ or bust for them.

It really isn't though. If they finish with 19 or 20 wins(to include the conference tourney) they're going to have a RPI in the 30's with a top 15 SOS. With wins over 2 top 10 teams in Auburn and Clemson. Resume's like that get in pretty much every single time.
02-02-2018 03:54 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
CliftonAve Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 12,345
Joined: May 2012
Reputation: 352
I Root For: Bearcats
Location:
Post: #6
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Cincinnati is not a mid-major basketball program. 80% of the P5 wish they had a program with the history, success, budget and facilities like ours.

(neither are UConn or Memphis but they aren't making the tournament)
(This post was last modified: 02-02-2018 03:59 PM by CliftonAve.)
02-02-2018 03:57 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply

Wedge Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 13,500
Joined: May 2010
Reputation: 428
I Root For: California
Location: Bear Territory
Post: #7
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-02-2018 03:12 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Last year, there was a disparity in RPI and KP with Wichita State.

Out of these teams, only Cincinnati and Nevada are top-20 in both RPI and KenPom after Thursday's games. Saint Mary's and Wichita State are top-30 in both. RPI and KP disagree by 50 places on Buffalo.

And, for whatever it's worth, the current regional seeding predicted by Jerry Palm on Friday is in parenthesis. I assume that he's projecting that any team seeded lower than 10 is only getting in with an autobid.

(6) Rhode Island - RPI 9, KP 34
(8) Nevada - RPI 14, KP 17
(4) Cincinnati - RPI 15, KP 5
(12) Middle Tennessee - RPI 21, KP 41
(4) Saint Mary's - RPI 27, KP 11
(8) Wichita State - RPI 29, KP 22
(12) Buffalo - RPI 31, KP 81
(not in) Temple - RPI 37, KP 85
(12) Western Kentucky - RPI 46, KP 45
(10) New Mexico State - RPI 47, KP 40
(10) Houston - RPI 48, KP 38
(5) Gonzaga - RPI 50, KP 9
02-02-2018 04:45 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Tom in Lazybrook Offline
Hall of Famer
*

Posts: 21,140
Joined: Jul 2011
Reputation: 438
I Root For: So Alabama, GWU
Location: Houston
Post: #8
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-02-2018 03:33 PM)ShockerDR Wrote:  
(02-02-2018 03:23 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  A10 is so bad that a random bad loss or two for the Rams could put Rhode Island in AQ-or-bust territory. Nevada wouldn't have to win AQ in the Mountain West, but Boise pretty much has to.

I'm not convinced those in the AAC are even getting all of their work done. Temple got one against Wichita, but it was in Philly, and Wichita is slowly starting to tumble metrically. Wichita is a lock...but they may not be Group 1 by season's end for Temple or Houston. SMU shouldn't even be in the conversation right now. Temple's only there because their SOS is so darn high.

Temple also has some really putrid losses (Tulane, GW, La Salle) to offset those strong wins. It's AQ or bust for them.


Yea, GW is awful this year. We might finish dead last in the A-10 this year.
02-02-2018 07:14 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
IWokeUpLikeThis Online
1st String
*

Posts: 1,939
Joined: Jul 2014
Reputation: 65
I Root For: NIU, Chicago St
Location: South Side
Post: #9
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
AAC isn’t mid major.

Buffalo has no shot. 0-3 T1 & 1-2 T2. Loyola (1-2 & 2-1) is more likely being 16-2 with Clayton Custer (2-3 without) and a win at Florida and more T2 games ahead. I don’t think Loyola has a shot either as their Custer-less games did them in even though they’re clearly capable with him.

It really comes down to:
- Gonzaga
- Saint Mary’s
- Nevada
- Rhode Island
- Boise State
- New Mexico State
- Middle Tennessee
- Western Kentucky

First 4 should be safe. Ditto Boise assuming no catastrophic losses. Pistol Pete might have to win out until title game. MTSU/WKU might have to beat everyone that isn’t each other.
02-02-2018 07:25 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
stever20 Online
Legend
*

Posts: 29,920
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 282
I Root For: College Sports
Location:
Post: #10
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-02-2018 07:25 PM)IWokeUpLikeThis Wrote:  AAC isn’t mid major.

Buffalo has no shot. 0-3 T1 & 1-2 T2. Loyola (1-2 & 2-1) is more likely being 16-2 with Clayton Custer (2-3 without) and a win at Florida and more T2 games ahead. I don’t think Loyola has a shot either as their Custer-less games did them in even though they’re clearly capable with him.

It really comes down to:
- Gonzaga
- Saint Mary’s
- Nevada
- Rhode Island
- Boise State
- New Mexico State
- Middle Tennessee
- Western Kentucky

First 4 should be safe. Ditto Boise assuming no catastrophic losses. Pistol Pete might have to win out until title game. MTSU/WKU might have to beat everyone that isn’t each other.

I'd hardly call Boise really safe. I mean their RPI is around 40 and they have 0 tier 1 wins right now. Plus a loss to bubble team SMU that could wind up killing them.
02-02-2018 09:24 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
The Cutter of Bish Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,286
Joined: Mar 2013
Reputation: 80
I Root For: the little guy
Location:
Post: #11
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
I don't look at the AAC as a mid-major in this. It's Houston, Temple, and SMU and their bid-worthiness that puts the mid-major at-large pool at risk. Barring someone like UCF making a run and stealing the AQ, 2-3 AAC schools are locks, but, five can't be ruled out yet. Palm's got three of them in there, Lunardi's got four.

SEC, AAC, ACC, and the Big XII is where the mid-major pool is most at risk. Big Ten's watching Maryland tag out for Nebraska...seems like most of the conference isn't interested in playing in March this year. PAC's failing to thrill as usual.

I'm annoyed Kansas State is showing up in brackets...awful NCSOS with a bad RPI is exactly what generates this controversy of major bias.
02-03-2018 06:23 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply

CougarRed Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 9,702
Joined: Feb 2006
Reputation: 285
I Root For: Houston
Location:
Post: #12
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Assuming Cincy, Houston and Wichita make the tournament this year, then the American has 7 schools that have made the tourney at least once in the last three years:

Cincy: 2016, 2017, 2018
Wichita: 2016, 2017, 2018
Houston: 2018
SMU: 2017
UConn: 2016
Temple: 2016
Tulsa: 2016

That's 11 bids in 3 years, or 3.7 per year.

Then there's Memphis and an emerging UCF, both of whom could earn NCAA bids soon. Memphis is a legit basketball school.

Clearly a "Power 7" league in basketball.

You look at the top of the Pac 12:

Arizona lost to SMU
USC lost to SMU
UCLA lost to Cincy
Oregon lost to UConn
Washington lost to Providence who lost to Houston
Stanford lost to Arizona, USC and UCLA who lost to SMU, SMU and Cincy
02-07-2018 02:46 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
loki_the_bubba Offline
All American
*

Posts: 3,257
Joined: Jul 2010
Reputation: 112
I Root For: Rice Owls
Location:
Post: #13
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-07-2018 02:46 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  Assuming Cincy, Houston and Wichita make the tournament this year, then the American has 7 schools that have made the tourney at least once in the last three years:

Cincy: 2016, 2017, 2018
Wichita: 2016, 2017, 2018
Houston: 2018
SMU: 2017
UConn: 2016
Temple: 2016
Tulsa: 2016

That's 11 bids in 3 years, or 3.7 per year.

Then there's Memphis and an emerging UCF, both of whom could earn NCAA bids soon. Memphis is a legit basketball school.

Clearly a "Power 7" league in basketball.

You look at the top of the Pac 12:

Arizona lost to SMU
USC lost to SMU
UCLA lost to Cincy
Oregon lost to UConn
Washington lost to Providence who lost to Houston
Stanford lost to Arizona, USC and UCLA who lost to SMU, SMU and Cincy

When you have to resort to transitives, you're not a power league.
02-07-2018 02:51 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
CougarRed Offline
Heisman
*

Posts: 9,702
Joined: Feb 2006
Reputation: 285
I Root For: Houston
Location:
Post: #14
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-07-2018 02:51 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  
(02-07-2018 02:46 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  Assuming Cincy, Houston and Wichita make the tournament this year, then the American has 7 schools that have made the tourney at least once in the last three years:

Cincy: 2016, 2017, 2018
Wichita: 2016, 2017, 2018
Houston: 2018
SMU: 2017
UConn: 2016
Temple: 2016
Tulsa: 2016

That's 11 bids in 3 years, or 3.7 per year.

Then there's Memphis and an emerging UCF, both of whom could earn NCAA bids soon. Memphis is a legit basketball school.

Clearly a "Power 7" league in basketball.

You look at the top of the Pac 12:

Arizona lost to SMU
USC lost to SMU
UCLA lost to Cincy
Oregon lost to UConn
Washington lost to Providence who lost to Houston
Stanford lost to Arizona, USC and UCLA who lost to SMU, SMU and Cincy

When you have to resort to transitives, you're not a power league.

But it's so fun! Undefeated UCF beats Auburn. Auburn smokes Bama.

UCF National Champs!
02-07-2018 02:57 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
stever20 Online
Legend
*

Posts: 29,920
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 282
I Root For: College Sports
Location:
Post: #15
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Temple is still in it big time right now. Assuming they win these next 2 games(vs USF and ECU)- they're 15-10 with a really good SOS. 4-1 last 5 games and they're in- and would be favored in 2 of those last 5, and 2 of the other 3 they're basically 50/50 propositions. 19-11 and they're at a 28 RPI with a SOS of 14. Heck, 18-12 and they have a RPI of around 36. With wins over Clemson and Auburn included. Teams like that get in most every single time.
02-07-2018 03:00 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
GoldenWarrior11 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,739
Joined: Jul 2015
Reputation: 151
I Root For: Marquette, BE
Location: Chicago
Post: #16
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-07-2018 03:00 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Temple is still in it big time right now. Assuming they win these next 2 games(vs USF and ECU)- they're 15-10 with a really good SOS. 4-1 last 5 games and they're in- and would be favored in 2 of those last 5, and 2 of the other 3 they're basically 50/50 propositions. 19-11 and they're at a 28 RPI with a SOS of 14. Heck, 18-12 and they have a RPI of around 36. With wins over Clemson and Auburn included. Teams like that get in most every single time.

They've done studies, you know? 60% of the time, it works every time.
02-07-2018 03:07 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply

Wedge Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 13,500
Joined: May 2010
Reputation: 428
I Root For: California
Location: Bear Territory
Post: #17
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-07-2018 02:57 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  
(02-07-2018 02:51 PM)loki_the_bubba Wrote:  
(02-07-2018 02:46 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  Assuming Cincy, Houston and Wichita make the tournament this year, then the American has 7 schools that have made the tourney at least once in the last three years:

Cincy: 2016, 2017, 2018
Wichita: 2016, 2017, 2018
Houston: 2018
SMU: 2017
UConn: 2016
Temple: 2016
Tulsa: 2016

That's 11 bids in 3 years, or 3.7 per year.

Then there's Memphis and an emerging UCF, both of whom could earn NCAA bids soon. Memphis is a legit basketball school.

Clearly a "Power 7" league in basketball.

You look at the top of the Pac 12:

Arizona lost to SMU
USC lost to SMU
UCLA lost to Cincy
Oregon lost to UConn
Washington lost to Providence who lost to Houston
Stanford lost to Arizona, USC and UCLA who lost to SMU, SMU and Cincy

When you have to resort to transitives, you're not a power league.

But it's so fun! Undefeated UCF beats Auburn. Auburn smokes Bama.

UCF National Champs!

By the transitive property, Chaminade is leading the AAC in basketball.
02-07-2018 03:55 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
stever20 Online
Legend
*

Posts: 29,920
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 282
I Root For: College Sports
Location:
Post: #18
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
how about by the transitive property- Chaminade is leading the Big East...
Chaminade beat Cal
Cal beat Stanford
Stanford beat Arizona St
Arizona St beat Xavier
Xavier beat Butler
Butler beat Villanova
02-07-2018 04:02 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Wedge Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 13,500
Joined: May 2010
Reputation: 428
I Root For: California
Location: Bear Territory
Post: #19
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-07-2018 04:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  how about by the transitive property- Chaminade is leading the Big East...
Chaminade beat Cal
Cal beat Stanford
Stanford beat Arizona St
Arizona St beat Xavier
Xavier beat Butler
Butler beat Villanova

That's how Chaminade is leading the AAC -- Chaminade beat Cal who beat Stanford who beat ASU who beat Xavier who beat Cincinnati. One less transitive step, even.
02-07-2018 04:07 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
stever20 Online
Legend
*

Posts: 29,920
Joined: Nov 2011
Reputation: 282
I Root For: College Sports
Location:
Post: #20
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-07-2018 04:07 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(02-07-2018 04:02 PM)stever20 Wrote:  how about by the transitive property- Chaminade is leading the Big East...
Chaminade beat Cal
Cal beat Stanford
Stanford beat Arizona St
Arizona St beat Xavier
Xavier beat Butler
Butler beat Villanova

That's how Chaminade is leading the AAC -- Chaminade beat Cal who beat Stanford who beat ASU who beat Xavier who beat Cincinnati. One less transitive step, even.

Nova #1 team in country.... makes it even funnier.
02-07-2018 04:09 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2018 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2018 MyBB Group.