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Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
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ken d Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Right now, it looks like Nevada, Rhode Island, St Mary's, Gonzaga, Cincinnati and Wichita State would get in even if they fail to win their conference tournament. Houston would get in unless a fourth team from the AAC wins the autobid. Then they are on the bubble. Anybody else will need to snag the autobid.
02-16-2018 09:06 AM
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_C2_ Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Houston is in unless they go under .500 down the stretch. It'd take a collapse to not to make it.
02-16-2018 09:42 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #43
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-16-2018 09:06 AM)ken d Wrote:  Right now, it looks like Nevada, Rhode Island, St Mary's, Gonzaga, Cincinnati and Wichita State would get in even if they fail to win their conference tournament. Houston would get in unless a fourth team from the AAC wins the autobid. Then they are on the bubble. Anybody else will need to snag the autobid.

um, conferences don't get teams in the tourney. teams do. Houston is almost certainly a lock right now. Even losing to Temple, if they go 3-1 down the stretch they are 23-7 with a 28 RPI. With 4 tier 1 wins for sure, and Arkansas and Temple are close enough that number could jump to 6 easily. Yeah, that's pretty much a lock.

Also, if Temple wins out regular season, they're a lock as well. 19-11 with a RPI of 27 and a SOS of 15. With 4 tier 1 wins, including vs tier 1 teams in Auburn and Clemson. That profile gets in all the time.
02-16-2018 09:57 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
It's going to get interesting, because it always does. There's a few that will make this intriguing now that Houston looks more like a lock.

Temple
Providence
USC
VaTech
UCLA
St. Mary's (yes, last night was pretty bad for a team with a schedule that never held up)
MTSU
WKU
Boise
Nebraska
Penn State (probably one game ahead of myself here...still need to win another big one)
St. Bonaventure (if they beat URI tonight)

Yeah, Temple's resume is unique to all of them. Of course, it wouldn't be a factor had they not blown it against a few bad teams...
(This post was last modified: 02-16-2018 11:20 AM by The Cutter of Bish.)
02-16-2018 11:19 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-16-2018 09:57 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(02-16-2018 09:06 AM)ken d Wrote:  Right now, it looks like Nevada, Rhode Island, St Mary's, Gonzaga, Cincinnati and Wichita State would get in even if they fail to win their conference tournament. Houston would get in unless a fourth team from the AAC wins the autobid. Then they are on the bubble. Anybody else will need to snag the autobid.

um, conferences don't get teams in the tourney. teams do. Houston is almost certainly a lock right now. Even losing to Temple, if they go 3-1 down the stretch they are 23-7 with a 28 RPI. With 4 tier 1 wins for sure, and Arkansas and Temple are close enough that number could jump to 6 easily. Yeah, that's pretty much a lock.

Also, if Temple wins out regular season, they're a lock as well. 19-11 with a RPI of 27 and a SOS of 15. With 4 tier 1 wins, including vs tier 1 teams in Auburn and Clemson. That profile gets in all the time.

I understand that conferences don't get teams in the tourney. I hadn't really looked that closely at Houston's record lately, and now that you call my attention to it, I agree they are in, no matter what Lunardi thinks.
02-16-2018 12:35 PM
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_C2_ Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
There's work to do but as long as they hold serve against the remaining schedule and win that typically troublesome first round conference tournament game, they should be in.
02-16-2018 03:16 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #47
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Just looking at updated RPI forecast- if Houston goes 4-1 rest of way- losing only to Temple- RPI would sit at 19.9. Yeah that's a lock. 3-2 and it's still 24.7. Really regardless of what happens in Orlando.

For Temple- if they win out to go 19-11, their RPI is 26.3. 18-12(so losing only to Houston) puts the RPI at 34.7. They might need a win in the tourney there, but probably would be pretty safe regardless.
02-16-2018 03:24 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
What's sad is that RPI of 26.3 or 34.7 is iffy if you're Temple. If you're in a major conference, it's a lock.

And Temple has the wins.
02-16-2018 03:34 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #49
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-16-2018 03:34 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  What's sad is that RPI of 26.3 or 34.7 is iffy if you're Temple. If you're in a major conference, it's a lock.

And Temple has the wins.

Not really though. When you have that RPI with a top 20 SOS, you are a lock. The reason why a Bufflo for instance isn't a lock, depsite having a great RPI- is their SOS is 73. Temple has triple the number of Q1 and Q2 wins than Buffalo does have.

Do I need to remind you the AAC got the benefit of the doubt 2 years ago with Temple and Tulsa? Temple got in with a 10 seed with a 60 RPI. Tulsa with a 58 RPI. And the AAC this year is much better than it was 2 years ago.
02-16-2018 03:50 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #50
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-16-2018 03:50 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Do I need to remind you the AAC got the benefit of the doubt 2 years ago with Temple and Tulsa? Temple got in with a 10 seed with a 60 RPI. Tulsa with a 58 RPI. And the AAC this year is much better than it was 2 years ago.

2013-14 SMU and 2014-15 Temple want a word with you.

For Temple, the conundrum is going to be the value of those really good wins versus the weight of some of those bad losses. What draws my comment, though, are those numbers against a Virginia Tech, NC State, Texas, K-State, and Florida...teams in the high 50's. Or, my new favorite scapegoat...Creighton. Where beating the middle of the conference and nothing more with a bad NC-SOS is still enough to put you in the RPI Top 25. Nobody thinks Creighton's not in this, no matter how lousy a seed they get. Temple's in this mess because of those bad losses. Better wins be d***ed.
02-16-2018 04:30 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #51
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-16-2018 04:30 PM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  
(02-16-2018 03:50 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Do I need to remind you the AAC got the benefit of the doubt 2 years ago with Temple and Tulsa? Temple got in with a 10 seed with a 60 RPI. Tulsa with a 58 RPI. And the AAC this year is much better than it was 2 years ago.

2013-14 SMU and 2014-15 Temple want a word with you.

For Temple, the conundrum is going to be the value of those really good wins versus the weight of some of those bad losses. What draws my comment, though, are those numbers against a Virginia Tech, NC State, Texas, K-State, and Florida...teams in the high 50's. Or, my new favorite scapegoat...Creighton. Where beating the middle of the conference and nothing more with a bad NC-SOS is still enough to put you in the RPI Top 25. Nobody thinks Creighton's not in this, no matter how lousy a seed they get. Temple's in this mess because of those bad losses. Better wins be d***ed.
2013-14 SMU had a horrible OOC SOS. Near 300. 2014-15 Temple had 2 RPI top 50 wins- Cincy(#37) and Kansas (#3)- both at home. This Temple team has already 3 top 20 wins- with 2 of those being away from home. A lot different. Getting a 4th win over a top 25 Houston team would be huge.
02-16-2018 05:17 PM
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solohawks Online
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Post: #52
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Anyone watching this St Bony URI game on ESPN2?

St Bony has a heck of a home crowd advantage. UNCW stole one from them last year up there. Someone from the crowd got the Bonnys a tech by throwing shampoo bottle onto the court
02-16-2018 08:27 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
Bona with the massive win. It's not enough to lock them but it's a definite and huge step in the right direction. Probably want to at least finish the season 3-1 and then win their first A10 tourney game to remove any doubt.
02-16-2018 09:38 PM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
I think it's still AQ or bust for them. UMD, Buffalo, and Vermont may not really matter by the end of championship week. Cuse has a tough road the next two weeks; that one might fall off for Bonnie, too.

Have to wonder if the 5-line was URI's ceiling, and if the loss now drops them from it. There's nothing left in their schedule that helps them any except a potential Group 2 game at Davidson...who is irrelevant.

Rhodie gets another chance to clinch the regular season conference championship on Tuesday in Philly at La Salle. Wagner can clinch NEC today, Vermont AmEast on Sunday. A Loyola win and SIU loss could give the Ramblers the Valley this weekend, as well. FGCU's already got A-Sun, and Bucknell's got Patriot.
02-17-2018 05:33 AM
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Tom in Lazybrook Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-16-2018 09:38 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  Bona with the massive win. It's not enough to lock them but it's a definite and huge step in the right direction. Probably want to at least finish the season 3-1 and then win their first A10 tourney game to remove any doubt.

If SBU goes 4-2 down the stretch, they'll be 24-8. I think that gets them in. 5 more wins will definitely get them in.

It would be interesting if somehow the A-10 got 3 in this year, after a really down year.
(This post was last modified: 02-17-2018 02:07 PM by Tom in Lazybrook.)
02-17-2018 02:05 PM
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Cyniclone Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
(02-17-2018 02:05 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  
(02-16-2018 09:38 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  Bona with the massive win. It's not enough to lock them but it's a definite and huge step in the right direction. Probably want to at least finish the season 3-1 and then win their first A10 tourney game to remove any doubt.

If SBU goes 4-2 down the stretch, they'll be 24-8. I think that gets them in. 5 more wins will definitely get them in.

It would be interesting if somehow the A-10 got 3 in this year, after a really down year.

Best possibility for that would be a 4 seed beating URI in the semis and then Bona in the final. Problem is, the teams playing for the 4 seed are pretty mediocre across the board.

Alternatively, presuming Davidson is the 3 seed and Bona wins out the regular season, Davidson beats them in the semis and wins the title against whoever.
02-17-2018 09:30 PM
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BigHouston Offline
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Post: #57
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
The AAC is like a Limited Edition... With many programs been there done that... Definitely a top notch league no question.

UConn and Memphis won't stay down for long... Once this league major top gun programs click on all cylinders I expect 4 - 6 bids to be the norm.


AAC's top regulars

Cincinnati
Memphis
UConn
Houston
SMU
Temple
Wichita State


And not far behind... UCF USF Tulsa and Tulane
02-17-2018 10:58 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #58
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
the thing about the AAC is they have the potential to have so many teams considered. I mean- they have projected 7 teams at least at 9-9 in conference play. That means if the SOS is good enough, and the OOC record was good enough, a pretty good chance to make the tourney. PLUS at the same time 3 teams at 14-4 or better projected to help the top teams with higher seeds.
02-18-2018 12:28 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
I think the Houston-Temple game determines where the AAC's bid cutoff is this season. If Temple wins, this could be a 4-bid conference. Lose, and I doubt it matters how well they finish out the season, barring a run to the conference final. I just don't see anyone other than Temple having the resume for inclusion beyond Cincy, Wichita, and Houston.

SEC and Big XII parity is going to offer little wiggle room to those non-majors looking for an at-large. The Texas-KSU-Baylor bloc and UGA-USC-LSU cluster continue to apply pressure and state their cases, no matter the chance.

NMSU is falling apart. Wagner nabs the NEC. With some of these conference races, I can see the NIT stocked very well with auto-bids. Heck, forget about who doesn't make the NCAAT...NIT might have a shortlist, too.
(This post was last modified: 02-18-2018 02:07 AM by The Cutter of Bish.)
02-18-2018 01:58 AM
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_C2_ Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Realistic Mid-Major At-Large Bid Candidates
The WAC was likely just gonna get one bid anyways.
02-18-2018 02:37 AM
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