The unofficial online home for fans of the Old Dominion University Monarchs. Part of Collegiate Sports Nation (CSN).

(02-12-2018 01:47 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(02-12-2018 12:59 PM)ODU True Blue Wrote:  I thought our record was going to be 25-5 regular season before we played a game. Still within reach as is 26-4.

Just rechecked that thread. I said 22-8 going into the CUSA tourney. I think we should definitely break that.

ODU is 19-5 now so 26-4 is definitely out of reach. Thinking one more loss (either WKU or Marshall) so 24-6 is my guess.

Transposed the 4 & 6. I meant one more loss to go 24-6.

(02-12-2018 01:57 PM)Punk Wrote:  Not even close to their resume that year. We have 0 wins in the top 100, let alone top 50.

Here is something I found before the CAA tourney that year..

Resume
RPI Rank: 51

Record: 23-11

Conference Record: 12-6

Strength Of Schedule: 86

Record Against RPI Top 50: 3-5

Quality Wins (against RPI Top 50): UCLA, Old Dominion, George Mason

Bad Losses (against RPI 100+): South Florida, Georgia State, Northeastern

In Or Out: Even though they have a pretty good RPI, I don't think that VCU makes the tournament. The win against UCLA is pretty nice (although not spectacular), but the quality wins against their conference opponents almost get nullified because they also lost to each of those teams (including Old Dominion twice).

They ended George Mason's long winning streak in the conference tournament, and that certainly looks good. But I think they needed to win the CAA title to get in. They played above average all season long, but I don't think that they made enough of an impact on the minds of the voters to get in.

Ok fair response.

Perhaps a little closer comparison--how does this ODU team's resume compare to the one that was in the last 4 out a couple of years ago?

(02-12-2018 04:29 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  

(02-12-2018 01:57 PM)Punk Wrote:  Not even close to their resume that year. We have 0 wins in the top 100, let alone top 50.

Here is something I found before the CAA tourney that year..

Resume
RPI Rank: 51

Record: 23-11

Conference Record: 12-6

Strength Of Schedule: 86

Record Against RPI Top 50: 3-5

Quality Wins (against RPI Top 50): UCLA, Old Dominion, George Mason

Bad Losses (against RPI 100+): South Florida, Georgia State, Northeastern

In Or Out: Even though they have a pretty good RPI, I don't think that VCU makes the tournament. The win against UCLA is pretty nice (although not spectacular), but the quality wins against their conference opponents almost get nullified because they also lost to each of those teams (including Old Dominion twice).

They ended George Mason's long winning streak in the conference tournament, and that certainly looks good. But I think they needed to win the CAA title to get in. They played above average all season long, but I don't think that they made enough of an impact on the minds of the voters to get in.

Ok fair response.

Perhaps a little closer comparison--how does this ODU team's resume compare to the one that was in the last 4 out a couple of years ago?

Closer but still not that close. ODU had a top-50 RPI pretty much all season, including 46 on Selection Sunday. Better wins, too — VCU was top 25, Louisiana Tech top 50 and LSU, Richmond and Georgia State top 75. And even with that, I was somewhat surprised to see ODU in the first four out group.

ODU hasn't had a reasonable path to an at-large bid probably since they lost to Temple in Charleston. Whether by design or accident (like Richmond and VCU falling apart and St. Bonaventure pulling out), it would have taken a three-loss season to get at-large consideration.

Hard for me to believe with a 3 loss season (including the tournament loss) that ODU wouldn't be more than just under consideration. That feels like MEAC respect level to me. I'd be stunned if it wasn't a LOCK with only 2 losses going into the CUSA tournament.

At any rate, I'll just give up hope for the at large based on the analysis and root hard for the title. Personally, I think this team can play well enough to claim it anyway.

(02-12-2018 05:53 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  Hard for me to believe with a 3 loss season (including the tournament loss) that ODU wouldn't be more than just under consideration. That feels like MEAC respect level to me. I'd be stunned if it wasn't a LOCK with only 2 losses going into the CUSA tournament.

At any rate, I'll just give up hope for the at large based on the analysis and root hard for the title. Personally, I think this team can play well enough to claim it anyway.

If you turn the W&M and VCU losses to wins and have ODU win out the regular season, their RPI is 49. Beat La Tech and WKU, lose to Middle in the CUSA tourney and their RPI is 43. Illinois State (33) and UT Arlington (45) missed the NCAA last season, so 43 is still pretty shaky ground, especially since they would still be lacking top-75 wins outside two presumed victories against WKU. The only thing that would work in their benefit is the whole "how can you keep a team with four losses (after the CUSA final) from dancing?" argument. But again, that gets counterbalanced by the lack of good wins.

That's why I said their NCAA at-large hopes, whatever they might have been, died with the Temple loss. Had they beaten Temple, then Auburn, then Clemson, they'd be in fantastic shape with three losses even if they came to Rice, Charlotte and UMES. But that was their one shot, and it clanked off the front iron.

EDIT TO ADD: Upon further review, I see now that you're postulating a three-loss ODU even after the CUSA final. In that case, turn the WKU loss to a win and keep the other parameters the same, and their RPI blossoms to 28 (though what effect beating WKU three times has on their RPI is anyone's guess). That would be at-large worthy but not a mortal lock: Four teams with top-30 RPIs have been snubbed since 2006, the most recent being Colorado State (29) in 2015, so nothing's for certain, especially if the WKU wins are the only good ones on ODU's resume.

(Technically, if ODU beat WKU and Middle Tennessee at home and lost to WKU on the road to go with the Temple and CUSA final defeats, ODU's RPI would be 22 and they'd be solidly in, but really, what's the point in detailing a scenario in which ODU beats Middle Tennessee?)

Hey if we beat Temple, Auburn and Clemson we would probably be ranked!

(02-12-2018 07:10 PM)mac Wrote:  Hey if we beat Temple, Auburn and Clemson we would probably be ranked!

I was going to amend my previous post to add this because anything beats work, but this is as good a place as any to pad my post totals:

If ODU beat Temple, Auburn and Clemson, went undefeated the rest of the season, then beat Louisiana Tech (best team that could get the eight seed reasonably), Marshall and Middle Tennessee in the CUSA tournament, the Monarchs' RPI would be 9. Two to four wins against top-25 teams (depending on what happens to Middle's RPI), another one to three potentially against top 50 teams. And still barely in the top 10 with an unbeaten record.

(02-12-2018 11:28 AM)ODU2011 Wrote:  Unlike the rest of you, I’m not counting out a tourney appearance.

Nobody is counting out a tournament appearance this year. Right now we have a 30%chance of making the NCAA's.

(02-12-2018 11:30 AM)757ODU Wrote:  If we win out and lose in the conference championship, a half court shot will be the only thing keeping us from a NCAA Tournament appearance.

Perhaps ....

(02-12-2018 07:45 PM)Mr.BigBlue Wrote:  

(02-12-2018 11:28 AM)ODU2011 Wrote:  Unlike the rest of you, I’m not counting out a tourney appearance.

Nobody is counting out a tournament appearance this year. Right now we have a 30%chance of making the NCAA's.

If we get a 1 seed, I'll buy 30%. I don't think the chances of beating WKU and MTSU on back to back nights in Frisco TX are anywhere near 30%. It could certainly happen, but I wouldn't bet at those odds.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk

30% seems accurate. The chances of bearing them individuallY is slightly less than 50%.

(02-12-2018 08:00 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  30% seems accurate. The chances of bearing them individuallY is slightly less than 50%.

Plus maybe someone does us a solid and takes out Middle Tennessee or WKU in the quarters. If you factor in that possibility with beating them both, 30 percent isn't unreasonable.

And who knows how playing in an indoor football facility split into two impacts all teams. Perhaps not as weird as playing in a Bahamian ballroom, but unusual all the same. No home court advantage here, even if North Texas ends up bringing the most fans.

(02-12-2018 08:31 PM)Cyniclone Wrote:  

(02-12-2018 08:00 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  30% seems accurate. The chances of bearing them individuallY is slightly less than 50%.

Plus maybe someone does us a solid and takes out Middle Tennessee or WKU in the quarters. If you factor in that possibility with beating them both, 30 percent isn't unreasonable.

And who knows how playing in an indoor football facility split into two impacts all teams. Perhaps not as weird as playing in a Bahamian ballroom, but unusual all the same. No home court advantage here, even if North Texas ends up bringing the most fans.

That's called "Doing the Stansbury".

(02-12-2018 08:00 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  30% seems accurate. The chances of bearing them individuallY is slightly less than 50%.

You'd have to factor in a greater than 50% chance of beating them individually to get to a 30% probability of beating them both.

If we have a 40% chance of winning each game individually, the mathematical probability of winning them both is 16%. Increase to 45% and it is 20.25%. Increase to 50% and it is 25%. Increase to 55% and it is 30.25%.

More realistically, if we have a 50% of beating WKU and a 40% chance of beating MTSU individually, the chance of beating them both is 20%. I think that is closer to accurate.

(02-13-2018 09:06 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(02-12-2018 08:00 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  30% seems accurate. The chances of bearing them individuallY is slightly less than 50%.

You'd have to factor in a greater than 50% chance of beating them individually to get to a 30% probability of beating them both.

If we have a 40% chance of winning each game individually, the mathematical probability of winning them both is 16%. Increase to 45% and it is 20.25%. Increase to 50% and it is 25%. Increase to 55% and it is 30.25%.

More realistically, if we have a 50% of beating WKU and a 40% chance of beating MTSU individually, the chance of beating them both is 20%. I think that is closer to accurate.

You are not accounting for the possibility that they lose before we play them.

Coleby is dealing with a knee injury. If he misses extended time, WKU could drop a couple before we play them.

(02-13-2018 09:23 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 09:06 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(02-12-2018 08:00 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  30% seems accurate. The chances of bearing them individuallY is slightly less than 50%.

You'd have to factor in a greater than 50% chance of beating them individually to get to a 30% probability of beating them both.

If we have a 40% chance of winning each game individually, the mathematical probability of winning them both is 16%. Increase to 45% and it is 20.25%. Increase to 50% and it is 25%. Increase to 55% and it is 30.25%.

More realistically, if we have a 50% of beating WKU and a 40% chance of beating MTSU individually, the chance of beating them both is 20%. I think that is closer to accurate.

You are not accounting for the possibility that they lose before we play them.

Exactly. And as much as a given as you think it is, the reality is WKY (and MTSU) may have a 25% chance of losing beforehand (just randome guess; could actually be higher).

(02-13-2018 09:30 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote:  Coleby is dealing with a knee injury. If he misses extended time, WKU could drop a couple before we play them.

Unlikely. They play North Texas, Rice, and Charlotte. They could lose the 1st if they come out flat, but I don't see them losing either of the others on their worst day.

(02-13-2018 09:35 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 09:23 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(02-13-2018 09:06 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(02-12-2018 08:00 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  30% seems accurate. The chances of bearing them individuallY is slightly less than 50%.

You'd have to factor in a greater than 50% chance of beating them individually to get to a 30% probability of beating them both.

If we have a 40% chance of winning each game individually, the mathematical probability of winning them both is 16%. Increase to 45% and it is 20.25%. Increase to 50% and it is 25%. Increase to 55% and it is 30.25%.

More realistically, if we have a 50% of beating WKU and a 40% chance of beating MTSU individually, the chance of beating them both is 20%. I think that is closer to accurate.

You are not accounting for the possibility that they lose before we play them.

Exactly. And as much as a given as you think it is, the reality is WKY (and MTSU) may have a 25% chance of losing beforehand (just randome guess; could actually be higher).

Well I have to think they both have a better probability of winning it than we do, considering we have lost to both at home. If we are 30%, and they are 35% each, that leaves 0% for anyone else.

Marshall has already proven they can beat MTSU so I have to think they'd be at least 10% while UTSA (who just beat WKU on the road), UNT, and UAB maybe about 5% each and maybe 1% for the other 5 teams.

That leaves 70% for MTSU, WKU, and ODU, or likely about 28/22/20. Win @ WKU and position ourselves as a 2 seed and perhaps we can improve this position.

(02-13-2018 09:06 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(02-12-2018 08:00 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  30% seems accurate. The chances of bearing them individuallY is slightly less than 50%.

You'd have to factor in a greater than 50% chance of beating them individually to get to a 30% probability of beating them both.

If we have a 40% chance of winning each game individually, the mathematical probability of winning them both is 16%. Increase to 45% and it is 20.25%. Increase to 50% and it is 25%. Increase to 55% and it is 30.25%.

More realistically, if we have a 50% of beating WKU and a 40% chance of beating MTSU individually, the chance of beating them both is 20%. I think that is closer to accurate.

But that will go up because other teams have an opportunity to beat them.