May be a good buying opportunity and not the crash that some predict.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/01/30/us-stock...genda.html

good luck timing it....

there was never a question a pull back was coming.....it was only a matter of 'when'....

#gambling

Corrections are normal.

Not now. Lower withholdings just hit the paychecks and tax returns are mailing. Things will hold until April.

The market is WAYYYY overvalued and has nothing to do with the economy. The economy has not tripled since 2008 as the stock market would indicate. Trump's biggest mistake in year one was beating the drum on that fake metric. Gambling.

(01-30-2018 11:09 AM)stinkfist Wrote:  good luck timing it....

there was never a question a pull back was coming.....it was only a matter of 'when'....

#gambling

It's why I don't spend time trying to play that game. The little guy like you and me won't win.

(01-30-2018 11:11 AM)Claw Wrote:  Not now. Lower withholdings just hit the paychecks and tax returns are mailing. Things will hold until April.

Stocks are forward looking---and frankly, they have priced in virtually every possible ounce of good news and then some. We are currently at historically over priced levels by almost any measure (past even the 1929 numbers)....so while overvalued conditions can persist for an extended period---they always eventually return to levels that represent the more traditional long term measures of valuation. Nobody knows if its about to fall---but the risk is very high right now. What I do know is the future expectation of returns for a person buying stocks at PE's above 10 is FAR lower than those buying stocks when the average PE is below 10. The DOW currently has a PE of around 28.

(01-30-2018 11:32 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  The market is WAYYYY overvalued and has nothing to do with the economy. The economy has not tripled since 2008 as the stock market would indicate. Trump's biggest mistake in year one was beating the drum on that fake metric. Gambling.

The economy also did not get cut by half in 2008 when the stock market went down.

As far as being overpriced, the historic PE ratio doesnt really show that. This is especially true when coupled with the fact that major legislation was just passed and business stifling regulation have been cut. Even with the rise in the stock market, the pe ration has actually topped and was trending a bit lower, which means earnings were catching back up.

In other words, this is not the type of environment to start shorting. Now, if it appeared that the dems were taking control of the house and senate this year, and Trump was in danger of not being reelected in 2020, those would be signs of concern, just like they were back in 2006.

It could adjust. It's a just a bit early for the big crash though. Baby boomers need to get just a few more years older.

a long overdue correction... and probably a rather small correction....before a big correction.

I think this is just some people taking some profits.

There really is no way to time these things..

(01-30-2018 11:44 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(01-30-2018 11:32 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  The market is WAYYYY overvalued and has nothing to do with the economy. The economy has not tripled since 2008 as the stock market would indicate. Trump's biggest mistake in year one was beating the drum on that fake metric. Gambling.

The economy also did not get cut by half in 2008 when the stock market went down.

As far as being overpriced, the historic PE ratio doesnt really show that. This is especially true when coupled with the fact that major legislation was just passed and business stifling regulation have been cut. Even with the rise in the stock market, the pe ration has actually topped and was trending a bit lower, which means earnings were catching back up.

In other words, this is not the type of environment to start shorting. Now, if it appeared that the dems were taking control of the house and senate this year, and Trump was in danger of not being reelected in 2020, those would be signs of concern, just like they were back in 2006.

I stand by my assessment. I'm not paying 50% more for a product based on optimism. I need to see numbers and results. Stocks are a good long play, but I wouldn't put a dime in short-term investment money at these prices. It could lose half its value tomorrow just as easily as it did in 2008 and it would be based on nothing but feelings.

(01-30-2018 11:56 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  

(01-30-2018 11:44 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(01-30-2018 11:32 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  The market is WAYYYY overvalued and has nothing to do with the economy. The economy has not tripled since 2008 as the stock market would indicate. Trump's biggest mistake in year one was beating the drum on that fake metric. Gambling.

The economy also did not get cut by half in 2008 when the stock market went down.

As far as being overpriced, the historic PE ratio doesnt really show that. This is especially true when coupled with the fact that major legislation was just passed and business stifling regulation have been cut. Even with the rise in the stock market, the pe ration has actually topped and was trending a bit lower, which means earnings were catching back up.

In other words, this is not the type of environment to start shorting. Now, if it appeared that the dems were taking control of the house and senate this year, and Trump was in danger of not being reelected in 2020, those would be signs of concern, just like they were back in 2006.

I stand by my assessment. I'm not paying 50% more for a product based on optimism. I need to see numbers and results. Stocks are a good long play, but I wouldn't put a dime in short-term investment money at these prices. It could lose half its value tomorrow just as easily as it did in 2008 and it would be based on nothing but feelings.

Nor am I saying you should. I'm just saying I wouldnt short because if the economy does get to 3%-4% growth, the market will likely become undervalued.

Market is up 45% since President Trump was elected. That is obviously not sustainable. A couple of days ago, I thought about taking some profits, and I'm not even an active trader.

(01-30-2018 11:46 AM)Claw Wrote:  It could adjust. It's a just a bit early for the big crash though. Baby boomers need to get just a few more years older.

^^^^

you see what I see...

why do you think DJT wanted to eliminate the estate tax.....

ol' boy understands protecting the USD moving forward....he knows if money is in play, then it makes more money.....if on the sidelines, it's a flat line scenario.....if it's diluted, it's a downward spiral.....

there's a reason gold hit historic highs during ZERO's tenure.....

(01-30-2018 11:44 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(01-30-2018 11:32 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  The market is WAYYYY overvalued and has nothing to do with the economy. The economy has not tripled since 2008 as the stock market would indicate. Trump's biggest mistake in year one was beating the drum on that fake metric. Gambling.

The economy also did not get cut by half in 2008 when the stock market went down.

As far as being overpriced, the historic PE ratio doesnt really show that. This is especially true when coupled with the fact that major legislation was just passed and business stifling regulation have been cut. Even with the rise in the stock market, the pe ration has actually topped and was trending a bit lower, which means earnings were catching back up.

In other words, this is not the type of environment to start shorting. Now, if it appeared that the dems were taking control of the house and senate this year, and Trump was in danger of not being reelected in 2020, those would be signs of concern, just like they were back in 2006.

The environment has become far more business friendly and that will certainly help us going forward. We have much more of a Reagan style pro-business lean by the government. The big difference between now and 1980 is household debt.

Seventy percent of economic activity in the US is driven by household consumption. In 1980 the average household debt figure for america was just under 50%. That meant there was lots of savings and a lot of pent up potential credit left to use in order to buy stuff. Debt represents 140% of household income today. Basically, the average US consumer is much more incumbered by debt today and has less ability to buy more stuff than the average consumer had in 1980 when Reagan did his thing. Until the consumer has some time to pay off credit and deleverage for another growth spurt--growth rates are going to be limited by existing debt.

I think Trumps ideas are sound and will lead to a better economy and growth rates. That said, I have my doubt that we will see an explosive economic expansion like Reagan had because we are currently 9 years into a weak expansion (average expansion lasts only 6 years) and we have a consumer population that is far more "tapped out" than we had in 1980.

(01-30-2018 12:39 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(01-30-2018 11:44 AM)UofMstateU Wrote:  

(01-30-2018 11:32 AM)EverRespect Wrote:  The market is WAYYYY overvalued and has nothing to do with the economy. The economy has not tripled since 2008 as the stock market would indicate. Trump's biggest mistake in year one was beating the drum on that fake metric. Gambling.

The economy also did not get cut by half in 2008 when the stock market went down.

As far as being overpriced, the historic PE ratio doesnt really show that. This is especially true when coupled with the fact that major legislation was just passed and business stifling regulation have been cut. Even with the rise in the stock market, the pe ration has actually topped and was trending a bit lower, which means earnings were catching back up.

In other words, this is not the type of environment to start shorting. Now, if it appeared that the dems were taking control of the house and senate this year, and Trump was in danger of not being reelected in 2020, those would be signs of concern, just like they were back in 2006.

The environment has become far more business friendly and that will certainly help us going forward. We have much more of a Reagan style pro-business lean by the government. The big difference between now and 1980 is household debt.

Seventy percent of economic activity in the US is driven by household consumption. In 1980 the average household debt figure for america was just under 50%. That meant there was lots of savings and a lot of pent up potential credit left to use in order to buy stuff. Debt represents 140% of household income today. Basically, the average US consumer is much more incumbered by debt today and has less ability to buy more stuff than the average consumer had in 1980 when Reagan did his thing. Until the consumer has some time to pay off credit and deleverage for another growth spurt--growth rates are going to be limited by existing debt.

I think Trumps ideas are sound and will lead to a better economy and growth rates. That said, I have my doubt that we will see an explosive economic expansion like Reagan had because we are currently 9 years into a weak expansion (average expansion lasts only 6 years) and we have a consumer population that is far more "tapped out" than we had in 1980.

college debt loan and health insurance has now become a tither it once was not....toss in food and transportation costs, and it becomes a battle for more than many a folk...

I easily agree with your posit....this is why I don't have inflationary concerns....

(01-30-2018 11:47 AM)No Bull Wrote:  a long overdue correction... and probably a rather small correction....before a big correction.

I think this is just some people taking some profits.

There really is no way to time these things..

There were some rumblings about Apple not hitting its targets in China and India or something too.

Wasn’t really listening closely so not sure if that was correct. but the talking heads are always looking to ‘splain these things when there very well be no “reason”, just some folks saying, ok time to take a little breather here.