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Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
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ken d Offline
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Post: #1
Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
On the P5 forum, I floated an idea which was triggered by the suggestion that the PAC may be more open to change than previously suspected. Because that idea affects some teams not now in the P5, I thought I would float it here as well.

Essentially, the Big 12 - often thought to be in its death throes - would remain intact in my proposal. Instead of the Texhoma schools moving west to the PAC, as some have suggested, I propose that the 4 California schools plus Washington and Oregon move east to the B12. That would bring the B12 to 16 members, and quell talk of megaconferences of 18, 20 or even more.

The remaining 6 PAC members would rebuild by adding Boise State, San Diego State and Fresno State from the MWC plus independent BYU. These schools could never have hoped to be invited to the current PAC largely because of resistance from the California schools. Fresno isn't a critical add here, but it would add a second school in the behemoth that is the state of California to help recruiting. This new PAC, which I presume would still legally own the PACN, would sell that albatross to the B12 which could make it very profitable where the PAC never could.

A 7th bowl would be added to the New Year's Six, allowing for both the new PAC plus the AAC to get autobids. Now, we can redesignate the six autobid conferences as the NY6 instead of the P6, and that's how I will refer to them.

At this point, there really aren't any more truly viable expansion candidates for the SEC, ACC and B1G, bringing some long term stability to the realignment process.

At 81 schools, the new NY6 would have produced more than 99% of all the appearances in the BCS/CFP top 14 (7 NY bowls X 2 teams) rankings over the past 15 years. No team outside the NY6 would have been ranked in the top 8 during that period. By every metric, the remaining four FBS conferences lag far behind the NY6, eliminating any reasonable complaints about exclusion from "the club".

The only downside I see is that it could kill the CR board, forcing us all to find something else to talk about. 07-coffee3
01-27-2018 11:16 AM
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bluesox Offline
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RE: Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
No pac 12 schools would ever leave to join the big 12.
01-27-2018 11:23 AM
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bullet Offline
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RE: Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
If you want to "end" major realignment you have to have the P5 all negotiate their media deals as a group.
01-27-2018 11:52 AM
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WesternSkillet Offline
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RE: Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
One Conference To Rule Them All

Air Force
Akron
Alabama
UAB
Appalachian State
Arizona
Arizona State
Arkansas
Arkansas State
Auburn
Ball State
Baylor
Boise State
Boston College
Bowling Green
Buffalo
California
Fresno State
UCLA
UCF
cmu
Charlotte
Cincinnati
Clemson
Coastal Carolina
Colorado
Colorado State
Connecticut
Duke
Eastern Michigan
East Carolina
FIU
Florida
Florida Atlantic
Florida State
Georgia
Georgia Southern
Georgia State
Georgia Tech
Hawai'i
Houston
Illinois
Indiana
Iowa
Iowa State
Kansas
Kansas State
Kent State
Kentucky
LSU
Louisiana Tech
Louisiana-Lafayette
Louisiana-Monroe
Louisville
Marshall
Maryland
Memphis
Miami (FL)
Miami (OH)
scUM
msu
Middle Tennessee
Minnesota
Ole Miss
Mississippi State
Missouri
Navy
Nebraska
Nevada
UNLV
New Mexico
New Mexico State
North Carolina
NC State
North Texas
Northern Illinois
Northwestern
Ohio
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Oklahoma State
Old Dominion
Oregon
Oregon State
Penn State
Pittsburgh
Purdue
Rice
Rutgers
San Diego State
San Jose State
South Alabama
South Carolina
South Florida
USC
SMU
Southern Miss
Stanford
Syracuse
TCU
Temple
Tennessee
Texas
Texas A&M
Texas State
Texas Tech
UTEP
UTSA
Toledo
Troy
Tulane
Tulsa
Utah
Utah State
Vanderbilt
Virginia
Virginia Tech
Wake Forest
Washington
Washington State
West Virginia
Western Kentucky
Western Michigan Broncos
Wisconsin
Wyoming

And Indys
Army
BYU
Liberty
Notre Dame
UMass
01-27-2018 12:03 PM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
(01-27-2018 11:23 AM)bluesox Wrote:  No pac 12 schools would ever leave to join the big 12.

Never is a long time. For the PAC schools, it could mean their conference remaining as is for the foreseeable future. That may be acceptable for some of them, but others may like the idea of being a member of the strongest conference on the field, which is also more profitable than the one they are in now. And, if they could all move without having to give up a single rivalry game in the process, that might not look so bad.

Now, I am making an assumption here with which you may not agree. I am assuming that the PAC will never be able to attract Texas and Oklahoma, which means there is no combination of other programs the PAC might add which would make it stronger, on the field or financially. If the status quo is acceptable long term to all 12 current PAC members, then you are probably right. I'm not sure it is.
(This post was last modified: 01-27-2018 12:10 PM by ken d.)
01-27-2018 12:05 PM
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BearcatJerry Offline
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RE: Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
(01-27-2018 11:16 AM)ken d Wrote:  On the P5 forum, I floated an idea which was triggered by the suggestion that the PAC may be more open to change than previously suspected. Because that idea affects some teams not now in the P5, I thought I would float it here as well.

Essentially, the Big 12 - often thought to be in its death throes - would remain intact in my proposal. Instead of the Texhoma schools moving west to the PAC, as some have suggested, I propose that the 4 California schools plus Washington and Oregon move east to the B12. That would bring the B12 to 16 members, and quell talk of megaconferences of 18, 20 or even more.

The remaining 6 PAC members would rebuild by adding Boise State, San Diego State and Fresno State from the MWC plus independent BYU. These schools could never have hoped to be invited to the current PAC largely because of resistance from the California schools. Fresno isn't a critical add here, but it would add a second school in the behemoth that is the state of California to help recruiting. This new PAC, which I presume would still legally own the PACN, would sell that albatross to the B12 which could make it very profitable where the PAC never could.

A 7th bowl would be added to the New Year's Six, allowing for both the new PAC plus the AAC to get autobids. Now, we can redesignate the six autobid conferences as the NY6 instead of the P6, and that's how I will refer to them.

At this point, there really aren't any more truly viable expansion candidates for the SEC, ACC and B1G, bringing some long term stability to the realignment process.

At 81 schools, the new NY6 would have produced more than 99% of all the appearances in the BCS/CFP top 14 (7 NY bowls X 2 teams) rankings over the past 15 years. No team outside the NY6 would have been ranked in the top 8 during that period. By every metric, the remaining four FBS conferences lag far behind the NY6, eliminating any reasonable complaints about exclusion from "the club".

The only downside I see is that it could kill the CR board, forcing us all to find something else to talk about. 07-coffee3

03-lmfao
Wait...wait...I have to catch my breath....

So, you have the University of Colorado...who LEFT the Big XII to jump to the PAC...and the University of Utah, still in a gutted "PAC" that has been rebuilt with some of the old MW...

Meanwhile, you have the California schools AND Oregon and Washington JOINING the Big XII schools.

This is "DavidST" worthy insanity... Really...

A question: How many schools have EVER defected from the PAC conference for another, similar level conference? Seriously here. I'm not talking about schools that had to make an economic choice to drop down or discontinue FB, I'm talking about members leaving for their own self-interest and moving to another, peer conference?

Now another question: How many schools have left the BIG XII for another, peer conference?

Now, if you have answered those two questions, then answer me this...which is the more stable, the more well-run Conference? And which conference, therefore, would you predict would be more likely to stay together and prosper going forward?

And, a much better scenario that you could have proposed is this: The Big XII manages to peel-off Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, USC, and UCLA. That scenario, at least makes some sort of sense. But it still defies reality.
01-27-2018 12:59 PM
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bluesox Offline
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RE: Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
I could see schools leave the pac 12 for the big 10 though
01-27-2018 01:04 PM
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otown Offline
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RE: Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
(01-27-2018 01:04 PM)bluesox Wrote:  I could see schools leave the pac 12 for the big 10 though

There will be no Maryland to California P5 conference.
01-27-2018 01:30 PM
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bluesox Offline
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RE: Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
Sure there could be but it would be a different set up than current conferences. I think the best set up for the top 40-60 programs would be if they were in 1 conference with large divisons
(This post was last modified: 01-27-2018 02:05 PM by bluesox.)
01-27-2018 02:04 PM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
(01-27-2018 12:59 PM)BearcatJerry Wrote:  
(01-27-2018 11:16 AM)ken d Wrote:  On the P5 forum, I floated an idea which was triggered by the suggestion that the PAC may be more open to change than previously suspected. Because that idea affects some teams not now in the P5, I thought I would float it here as well.

Essentially, the Big 12 - often thought to be in its death throes - would remain intact in my proposal. Instead of the Texhoma schools moving west to the PAC, as some have suggested, I propose that the 4 California schools plus Washington and Oregon move east to the B12. That would bring the B12 to 16 members, and quell talk of megaconferences of 18, 20 or even more.

The remaining 6 PAC members would rebuild by adding Boise State, San Diego State and Fresno State from the MWC plus independent BYU. These schools could never have hoped to be invited to the current PAC largely because of resistance from the California schools. Fresno isn't a critical add here, but it would add a second school in the behemoth that is the state of California to help recruiting. This new PAC, which I presume would still legally own the PACN, would sell that albatross to the B12 which could make it very profitable where the PAC never could.

A 7th bowl would be added to the New Year's Six, allowing for both the new PAC plus the AAC to get autobids. Now, we can redesignate the six autobid conferences as the NY6 instead of the P6, and that's how I will refer to them.

At this point, there really aren't any more truly viable expansion candidates for the SEC, ACC and B1G, bringing some long term stability to the realignment process.

At 81 schools, the new NY6 would have produced more than 99% of all the appearances in the BCS/CFP top 14 (7 NY bowls X 2 teams) rankings over the past 15 years. No team outside the NY6 would have been ranked in the top 8 during that period. By every metric, the remaining four FBS conferences lag far behind the NY6, eliminating any reasonable complaints about exclusion from "the club".

The only downside I see is that it could kill the CR board, forcing us all to find something else to talk about. 07-coffee3

03-lmfao
Wait...wait...I have to catch my breath....

So, you have the University of Colorado...who LEFT the Big XII to jump to the PAC...and the University of Utah, still in a gutted "PAC" that has been rebuilt with some of the old MW...

Meanwhile, you have the California schools AND Oregon and Washington JOINING the Big XII schools.

This is "DavidST" worthy insanity... Really...

A question: How many schools have EVER defected from the PAC conference for another, similar level conference? Seriously here. I'm not talking about schools that had to make an economic choice to drop down or discontinue FB, I'm talking about members leaving for their own self-interest and moving to another, peer conference?

Now another question: How many schools have left the BIG XII for another, peer conference?

Now, if you have answered those two questions, then answer me this...which is the more stable, the more well-run Conference? And which conference, therefore, would you predict would be more likely to stay together and prosper going forward?

And, a much better scenario that you could have proposed is this: The Big XII manages to peel-off Colorado, Utah, Arizona, Arizona State, USC, and UCLA. That scenario, at least makes some sort of sense. But it still defies reality.

A few weeks ago, I would have felt the same way you do. No way this would ever happen. The PAC would never have any interest in doing anything except stay exactly as they are. And they still may.

But I increasingly hear rumblings that not everyone in the PAC is happy about that status quo. I don't believe there is anything the PAC can do collectively to improve their situation. I don't believe they can attract anyone who will make them stronger on the field, or who will increase their revenues. If dissatisfaction with the status quo is strong enough to make some members consider alternatives, those alternative include only the B1G or the Big 12.

I also don't see much likelihood that the 4 California schools, and only those four, would move to the B1G, which I believe is the only viable alternative to what I proposed. Already at 14 members, I think there are serious limits to how many additional members the B1G could absorb. At 10 current members, the Big 12 has a lot more flexibility, and could accommodate enough west coast teams to facilitate critical mass from a scheduling/travel standpoint. I don't think the B1G can do that.

I say only viable alternative at least in part beause these six schools are the only ones who would improve the finances of the Big 12. That is, they are the only ones I believe the Big 12 would want to add. I further believe that either all 4 Cali schools go together or none do.

All that leads me to consider what I would have considered unthinkable very recently, and which you still consider unthinkable.
01-27-2018 03:20 PM
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RE: Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
(01-27-2018 11:16 AM)ken d Wrote:  On the P5 forum, I floated an idea which was triggered by the suggestion that the PAC may be more open to change than previously suspected. Because that idea affects some teams not now in the P5, I thought I would float it here as well.

Essentially, the Big 12 - often thought to be in its death throes - would remain intact in my proposal. Instead of the Texhoma schools moving west to the PAC, as some have suggested, I propose that the 4 California schools plus Washington and Oregon move east to the B12. That would bring the B12 to 16 members, and quell talk of megaconferences of 18, 20 or even more.

The remaining 6 PAC members would rebuild by adding Boise State, San Diego State and Fresno State from the MWC plus independent BYU. These schools could never have hoped to be invited to the current PAC largely because of resistance from the California schools. Fresno isn't a critical add here, but it would add a second school in the behemoth that is the state of California to help recruiting. This new PAC, which I presume would still legally own the PACN, would sell that albatross to the B12 which could make it very profitable where the PAC never could.

A 7th bowl would be added to the New Year's Six, allowing for both the new PAC plus the AAC to get autobids. Now, we can redesignate the six autobid conferences as the NY6 instead of the P6, and that's how I will refer to them.

The B12 has more room to expand than the PAC.

The 4 California schools, Arizona St and Colorado would balloon the B12 to 16. Texas Tech and Texas could then join the western division.

B12 would take the Rose Bowl spot while the PAC becomes the host for the Fiesta Bowl in the NY6.

PAC could then add BYU, Boise St, SDSU, SJSU, UNLV, Colorado St. I would think SJSU would get in over Fresno St for market purposes. The PAC exception to Boise St joining would be no more without the California schools.
01-27-2018 03:40 PM
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ColKurtz Offline
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RE: Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
(01-27-2018 03:40 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(01-27-2018 11:16 AM)ken d Wrote:  On the P5 forum, I floated an idea which was triggered by the suggestion that the PAC may be more open to change than previously suspected. Because that idea affects some teams not now in the P5, I thought I would float it here as well.

Essentially, the Big 12 - often thought to be in its death throes - would remain intact in my proposal. Instead of the Texhoma schools moving west to the PAC, as some have suggested, I propose that the 4 California schools plus Washington and Oregon move east to the B12. That would bring the B12 to 16 members, and quell talk of megaconferences of 18, 20 or even more.

The remaining 6 PAC members would rebuild by adding Boise State, San Diego State and Fresno State from the MWC plus independent BYU. These schools could never have hoped to be invited to the current PAC largely because of resistance from the California schools. Fresno isn't a critical add here, but it would add a second school in the behemoth that is the state of California to help recruiting. This new PAC, which I presume would still legally own the PACN, would sell that albatross to the B12 which could make it very profitable where the PAC never could.

A 7th bowl would be added to the New Year's Six, allowing for both the new PAC plus the AAC to get autobids. Now, we can redesignate the six autobid conferences as the NY6 instead of the P6, and that's how I will refer to them.

The B12 has more room to expand than the PAC.

The 4 California schools, Arizona St and Colorado would balloon the B12 to 16. Texas Tech and Texas could then join the western division.

B12 would take the Rose Bowl spot while the PAC becomes the host for the Fiesta Bowl in the NY6.

PAC could then add BYU, Boise St, SDSU, SJSU, UNLV, Colorado St. I would think SJSU would get in over Fresno St for market purposes. The PAC exception to Boise St joining would be no more without the California schools.

The California schools' admins, especially Stanford and Berkley, would just as soon associate themselves with Texas and the other red states as they would vote republican. They're not leaving the Pac.

The Pac giving up the Rose Bowl to the B12 to go play in the Fiesta? That is one of the dumber suggestions I've seen in a while, and that's saying a lot for this board.

Plus it would be a huge mess as to tier3 rights. Would the Pac schools bring their Pac12 networks with them? I doubt it. The Pac12 owns those networks. Would the 9 other B12 schools creat their own P12-esque networks when the Pac's have proven to be underwhelming? The LHN is still the elephant in the room.

The California schools aren't leaving. It's a ludicrous suggestion. The P12 would probably take 4 from the B12 if the opportunity came up, otherwise they'll be just fine staying where they are.
01-27-2018 05:46 PM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
(01-27-2018 05:46 PM)ColKurtz Wrote:  
(01-27-2018 03:40 PM)Kittonhead Wrote:  
(01-27-2018 11:16 AM)ken d Wrote:  On the P5 forum, I floated an idea which was triggered by the suggestion that the PAC may be more open to change than previously suspected. Because that idea affects some teams not now in the P5, I thought I would float it here as well.

Essentially, the Big 12 - often thought to be in its death throes - would remain intact in my proposal. Instead of the Texhoma schools moving west to the PAC, as some have suggested, I propose that the 4 California schools plus Washington and Oregon move east to the B12. That would bring the B12 to 16 members, and quell talk of megaconferences of 18, 20 or even more.

The remaining 6 PAC members would rebuild by adding Boise State, San Diego State and Fresno State from the MWC plus independent BYU. These schools could never have hoped to be invited to the current PAC largely because of resistance from the California schools. Fresno isn't a critical add here, but it would add a second school in the behemoth that is the state of California to help recruiting. This new PAC, which I presume would still legally own the PACN, would sell that albatross to the B12 which could make it very profitable where the PAC never could.

A 7th bowl would be added to the New Year's Six, allowing for both the new PAC plus the AAC to get autobids. Now, we can redesignate the six autobid conferences as the NY6 instead of the P6, and that's how I will refer to them.

The B12 has more room to expand than the PAC.

The 4 California schools, Arizona St and Colorado would balloon the B12 to 16. Texas Tech and Texas could then join the western division.

B12 would take the Rose Bowl spot while the PAC becomes the host for the Fiesta Bowl in the NY6.

PAC could then add BYU, Boise St, SDSU, SJSU, UNLV, Colorado St. I would think SJSU would get in over Fresno St for market purposes. The PAC exception to Boise St joining would be no more without the California schools.

The California schools' admins, especially Stanford and Berkley, would just as soon associate themselves with Texas and the other red states as they would vote republican. They're not leaving the Pac.

The Pac giving up the Rose Bowl to the B12 to go play in the Fiesta? That is one of the dumber suggestions I've seen in a while, and that's saying a lot for this board.

Plus it would be a huge mess as to tier3 rights. Would the Pac schools bring their Pac12 networks with them? I doubt it. The Pac12 owns those networks. Would the 9 other B12 schools creat their own P12-esque networks when the Pac's have proven to be underwhelming? The LHN is still the elephant in the room.

The California schools aren't leaving. It's a ludicrous suggestion. The P12 would probably take 4 from the B12 if the opportunity came up, otherwise they'll be just fine staying where they are.

I wouldn't call the bolded part a suggestion. What I would suggest is that it would be the Rose Bowl's call, not the PAC's if the six best teams from the PAC were to leave. Who do you think they would choose? USC et al or Washington State et al?
01-27-2018 08:05 PM
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Jjoey52 Offline
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Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
Colorado wanted out of that mess, don’t see them going back.

Any thing over 14 teams is too large and cumbersome with way too many mouths to feed. 16 and above will fail.


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01-28-2018 01:18 AM
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templefootballfan Offline
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RE: Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
Pac-12 has to help itself
who owns Pacnetwork the conf or larry Scott, he doesn't answer to anybody

sch & attendence, rework OOS, 8 conf games opens home dates, sch agreement with MWC
nobody brings people to games like BYU, play them
labour day challange somebody

expand with Hous & Haw, playing at Haw allows xtra games [20 FB & BB]
Hous opens up earliy time slots & the only way Pac gets in Tex

they can't make thier conf tourn work in LA, more money in LA
01-28-2018 01:58 AM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #16
RE: Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
Now that the Big 12 plays a CC, it’s unlikely to have pressure to expand or dissolve outright. I would still expand to solidify a larger footprint, but I don’t think OU and UT are eager to move.
01-28-2018 05:36 AM
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TexanMark Offline
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RE: Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
Ken, these rumblings you are hearing?

Internal conference? or fan board driven?

Definitely a different way to look at it...but I feel the PAC12 has the leverage over the Big12
01-28-2018 08:38 AM
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JHS55 Offline
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RE: Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
Something is floating alright and it stinks...
01-28-2018 09:10 AM
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ken d Offline
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RE: Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
Let me make one thing very clear. I strongly believe, and have consistently stated on this board, that of all the possible P5 realignment scenarios bandied about on this board (including those bandied by me), I believe that by far the most probable scenario is that there won't be any more realignment. Not even when the B12 and PAC media contracts and GoRs expire.

Whether or not everybody is where they should be, or where they "deserve" to be, I think that wherever that is is where they will stay for the forseeable future.

This thread, and any others I may have started, consider only the possibility that I am wrong about this. Prompted by other threads on this forum and the P5 discussion forum, I have followed links and leads to other sources (whose credibility I can't vouch for in the least) that for the first time hint to me that not all members of the PAC are fully satisfied with where they stand in the P5 and at the bank. I hadn't heard any of that before.

I doubt the dissatisfaction rises (yet) to a point where anyone would consider leaving. This thread starts from the proposition that some have, or soon will, reach that point. In that case - and only in that case - does anything in the OP make any sense.

Since I don't believe the PAC could attract anyone who could erase such dissatisfaction, the only relief I see for those members is to leave the conference, and the only conference I can see who both could and would accept them is the Big 12.

Thus, the OP.
(This post was last modified: 01-28-2018 02:59 PM by ken d.)
01-28-2018 02:15 PM
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clpp01 Offline
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RE: Realignment proposal to end all further realignment
Washington and the California schools would never go to the Big-12, there are too many poor academic schools within the Big-12 for that to ever be a viable option for the people that run those universities. If and/or when things ever got so bad to the point where Cal schools were actively looking to leave, the only conference that is powerful and prestigious enough to entice UW and the Cal 4 to make the jump would be the Big Ten.

The only way the Big-12 would be able to start expanding with schools from the Pac-12 is if the B1G had already breached the conference and left behind anyone the Big-12 would want to add.
01-28-2018 03:34 PM
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