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Odds of Making tourney- 2/24(updated)
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stever20 Online
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Post: #1
Odds of Making tourney- 2/24(updated)
Looking at RPI- and using the % chances of records- here's the thoughts on odds of making tourney for BE teams from RPI forecast
Marquette- 9-9 conference gets them to 18-12- RPI of 52.9. 66.14% chance of getting that.
Providence- 9-9 conference gets them to 18-13- RPI of 50.0. 76.37% chance of getting that.
Butler- 8-10 conference gets them to 18-13- RPI of 51.5. 93.35% chance of getting that.
Creighton- 9-9 conference gets them to 19-11- RPI of 49.5. 97.79% chance of getting that(though with injury- that could be a bit optimistic)
Seton Hall, Xavier, and Nova are nearly at 100% right now. And Georgetown, St John's and DePaul are nearly at 0% right now.

Big games this week-
Providence @ Villanova, Tuesday
Creighton @ St John's, Tuesday
Marquette @ Xavier, Wednesday
St John's @ Butler, Saturday
Georgetown @ Creighton, Saturday
Villanova @ Marquette, Sunday

really big week for Marquette. And I'd say a crucial week for Creighton- losing either game would be really tough pill and would eliminate some margin for error with the injury.
(This post was last modified: 02-26-2018 03:09 PM by stever20.)
01-22-2018 12:34 PM
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/22
Updated after last night's games...
Marquette- 9-9 gets them to 18-12- RPI of 52.5. 59.31% chance of getting that
Providence- 9-9 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 51.2. 79.24% chance of getting that
Butler- 8-10 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 52.6. 92.98% chance of getting that
Creighton- 9-9 gets them to 19-11- RPI of 50.7. 99.25% chance of getting that

2 games on Saturday that could really make Butler and Creighton much less likely if they were to lose. And a game for Marquette on Sunday that would really help them out.
01-25-2018 11:47 AM
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/25(updated)
Even if Marquette loses to Villanova on Sunday, getting them to 4-5 in conference, they still have four remaining games against Georgetown, St. Johns and DePaul (which they all will be favored). The key stretch, IMO, will be at home against Butler/Providence. They need to take those two. If they can split with Creighton (win at home, lose away), that easily gets them to 11-7 in conference - which is way more than enough to get them in. I think 9-9 *should* do it, pending a victory in the BET, but 11-7 or 10-8 would seal it.
01-25-2018 02:27 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/25(updated)
I think they really need at least 10 wins- so getting 2 from Butler/Providence/Creighton*2/Seton Hall. If they only got 1 win(espcially if it's a home win vs Butler/Providence/Creighton)- they could go in front of the committee only like 2-9 vs tier 1 games. With only win @ Providence being even a decent road win. Not really a good resume I'd say. 9 gets them in the conversation- though I think they could really be out with the quantity of teams in contention.

I mean- right now we have-
ACC- 10 teams with 14 wins, 1 at 13, 1 at 12
B12- 6 teams with at least 15 wins, 2 at 13
SEC- 5 teams with at least 14 wins, 3 at 13, 4 at 12
B10- 6 teams with at least 14 wins, 1 at 13
P12- 4 teams with at least 14 wins, 2 at 13
so just from the P5- you have 31 teams right now with at least 14 wins, and then another 9 with at least 13 wins and 5 more at 12 wins. Not all of these teams have a chance, but there's a lot of teams that if they get hot will wind up with 20 wins and probably in the tourney.
01-25-2018 02:38 PM
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/25(updated)
Updated after weekend's action
Marquette- 9-9 gets them to 18-12- RPI of 53.5. 57.18% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 44.5, 30.57
% chance)
Providence- 9-9 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 52.5. 78.70% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 43.1, 52.69% chance)
Butler- 8-10 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 54.2. 97.26% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 43.9, 86.74% chance)
Creighton- 9-9 gets them to 19-11- RPI of 53.8. 99.40% chance of getting that

big games this week-
Wed
Butler @ Marquette
Providence @ Seton Hall
Thu
Creighton @ Villanova
Sat
Providence @ Marquette

huge weeks for Marquette and Providence- especially Marquette. They really can't go 0-2 and feel good about their chances. Creighton with a chance to pretty much become a lock if they can upset Nova on Thursday.
01-29-2018 02:16 PM
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Bogg Offline
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/29(updated)
The good news for Marquette is that they still have both games against St John's left and one each against Georgetown/DePaul, plus if they finish seventh in conference an opening-day conference tournament game against (likely) St John's again. It'd be huge to snag one of these next two games at home against Providence/Butler, but it doesn't end the season for them if they don't either (obviously the math starts getting very tight at that point though).
01-29-2018 03:48 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/29(updated)
(01-29-2018 03:48 PM)Bogg Wrote:  The good news for Marquette is that they still have both games against St John's left and one each against Georgetown/DePaul, plus if they finish seventh in conference an opening-day conference tournament game against (likely) St John's again. It'd be huge to snag one of these next two games at home against Providence/Butler, but it doesn't end the season for them if they don't either (obviously the math starts getting very tight at that point though).

They absolutely have got to win at least 1 game from Butler/ Marquette/ @ Seton Hall/ @ Creighton/ Creighton(there is no shot of them getting in at 17-13). And IMO by far the easiest wins in those would be the 2 this week.
01-29-2018 04:22 PM
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Bogg Offline
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/29(updated)
(01-29-2018 04:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 03:48 PM)Bogg Wrote:  The good news for Marquette is that they still have both games against St John's left and one each against Georgetown/DePaul, plus if they finish seventh in conference an opening-day conference tournament game against (likely) St John's again. It'd be huge to snag one of these next two games at home against Providence/Butler, but it doesn't end the season for them if they don't either (obviously the math starts getting very tight at that point though).

They absolutely have got to win at least 1 game from Butler/ Marquette/ @ Seton Hall/ @ Creighton/ Creighton(there is no shot of them getting in at 17-13). And IMO by far the easiest wins in those would be the 2 this week.

They can get to 18 wins by beating St John's three time and DePaul/Georgetown once each. It's not ideal, but it might do it.
01-29-2018 06:12 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/29(updated)
(01-29-2018 06:12 PM)Bogg Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 04:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 03:48 PM)Bogg Wrote:  The good news for Marquette is that they still have both games against St John's left and one each against Georgetown/DePaul, plus if they finish seventh in conference an opening-day conference tournament game against (likely) St John's again. It'd be huge to snag one of these next two games at home against Providence/Butler, but it doesn't end the season for them if they don't either (obviously the math starts getting very tight at that point though).

They absolutely have got to win at least 1 game from Butler/ Marquette/ @ Seton Hall/ @ Creighton/ Creighton(there is no shot of them getting in at 17-13). And IMO by far the easiest wins in those would be the 2 this week.

They can get to 18 wins by beating St John's three time and DePaul/Georgetown once each. It's not ideal, but it might do it.

18-14 doesn't get them in by any stretch of the imagination. They are 2-7 right now vs tier 1 opponents, and what you are saying would give them another 4 tier 1 losses- at least. So 2-11. And Butler and Providence could wind up tier 1 losses as well- pushing them to 3-13. At 17-13 not counting conference tourney- their RPI entering that would be 63.5. That's a complete NIT resume- not even frankly one of the first 4 teams out of the tourney.
01-29-2018 06:22 PM
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Bogg Offline
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/29(updated)
(01-29-2018 06:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 06:12 PM)Bogg Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 04:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 03:48 PM)Bogg Wrote:  The good news for Marquette is that they still have both games against St John's left and one each against Georgetown/DePaul, plus if they finish seventh in conference an opening-day conference tournament game against (likely) St John's again. It'd be huge to snag one of these next two games at home against Providence/Butler, but it doesn't end the season for them if they don't either (obviously the math starts getting very tight at that point though).

They absolutely have got to win at least 1 game from Butler/ Marquette/ @ Seton Hall/ @ Creighton/ Creighton(there is no shot of them getting in at 17-13). And IMO by far the easiest wins in those would be the 2 this week.

They can get to 18 wins by beating St John's three time and DePaul/Georgetown once each. It's not ideal, but it might do it.

18-14 doesn't get them in by any stretch of the imagination. They are 2-7 right now vs tier 1 opponents, and what you are saying would give them another 4 tier 1 losses- at least. So 2-11. And Butler and Providence could wind up tier 1 losses as well- pushing them to 3-13. At 17-13 not counting conference tourney- their RPI entering that would be 63.5. That's a complete NIT resume- not even frankly one of the first 4 teams out of the tourney.

It was impossible for the Big East to get 7 teams in this year once upon a time too.
01-29-2018 09:09 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/29(updated)
(01-29-2018 09:09 PM)Bogg Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 06:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 06:12 PM)Bogg Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 04:22 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(01-29-2018 03:48 PM)Bogg Wrote:  The good news for Marquette is that they still have both games against St John's left and one each against Georgetown/DePaul, plus if they finish seventh in conference an opening-day conference tournament game against (likely) St John's again. It'd be huge to snag one of these next two games at home against Providence/Butler, but it doesn't end the season for them if they don't either (obviously the math starts getting very tight at that point though).

They absolutely have got to win at least 1 game from Butler/ Marquette/ @ Seton Hall/ @ Creighton/ Creighton(there is no shot of them getting in at 17-13). And IMO by far the easiest wins in those would be the 2 this week.

They can get to 18 wins by beating St John's three time and DePaul/Georgetown once each. It's not ideal, but it might do it.

18-14 doesn't get them in by any stretch of the imagination. They are 2-7 right now vs tier 1 opponents, and what you are saying would give them another 4 tier 1 losses- at least. So 2-11. And Butler and Providence could wind up tier 1 losses as well- pushing them to 3-13. At 17-13 not counting conference tourney- their RPI entering that would be 63.5. That's a complete NIT resume- not even frankly one of the first 4 teams out of the tourney.

It was impossible for the Big East to get 7 teams in this year once upon a time too.

NO 18-14 team with a RPI of 60 with close to a 2-11 record vs tier 1 teams would have a prayer of getting in the tournament. End of story. That resume just doesn't come close to make the tourney. IT's more of a 3 or 4 seed in the NIT quite frankly. Marquette really needs to get to 18 regular season or 19 overall to have much of a chance in making the tourney......
01-30-2018 12:20 AM
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/29(updated)
And I think Marquette fans would even say that resume would give them absolutely no chance at the NCAA. Too many teams out there like a Nebraska who is 17-8 and could easily wind up 22-9 going into the Big Ten tourney. Get another win there and 23-10. Like it or not 23-10 Big Ten team will get in over 18-14 Marquette every single time. Now, I think Marquette is better than Nebraska, but in basketball(different than football)- it's not really about who the best is, it's more about who is most deserving. And in this situation, Marquette just wouldn't be.
01-31-2018 09:54 AM
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/29(updated)
Will be really interesting with Marquette. The game on Saturday is real close to a must win now. I mean having to get at least 1 win @ Seton Hall or Creighton(x2)?

And really for Providence it's a big game as well. They have games left with Nova, Seton Hall, and Xavier with ranked teams/teams getting votes- and one at Butler. Lose to Marquette and those 4 games- they're at 9 losses and they are precarious as well.

These teams really did it to themselves OOC. Providence had no really good wins, and mediocre losses. Marquette got what normally would be a good win vs Wisconsin, but they're 10-13.
01-31-2018 10:52 PM
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/29(updated)
No dancing for Marquette this year. We can't defend anyone in the paint, and now teams have learned how to defend us. Howard/Rousey, while great offensive players, are subpar defenders. We have no height or toughness. Tonight is as a demoralizing loss as I can remember (last one was Iowa a few years ago). This was inexcusable, as this was a big game to get hyped for. The whole team laid egg tonight.
01-31-2018 11:31 PM
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/29(updated)
With the schedule Marquette has left, they have a chance. They just need to get 1 win from Providence, Seton Hall, or Creighton- and sweep St John's, DePaul, and Georgetown. That gets them 18-12 and really would have a good shot.

The thing is, I could easily see a win over Providence, but then be the team that St John's finally breaks thru on. That would be a net zero for them and they're right back in the muck.
02-01-2018 12:43 AM
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/29(updated)
I know on the other place you put where Marquette looks NIT- but lets say they lose the 4 games that we talk about- Providence, Seton Hall, Creighton(x2). All it would take for Marquette to miss even the NIT at that point is 1 other loss. 16-14 projected RPI is 76.1(would suck for the other teams- as road game at Marquette would be tier 2 now- and home would be tier 3). Just scanning the standings right now around the country, there's a lot of smaller conferences like the Big South where there is a 3 way tie at 7-3 for first place. Which means there could easily be a LOT more bid thieves in the NIT than we normally see- limiting the true number of NIT bids to fewer than 20.
(This post was last modified: 02-01-2018 10:55 AM by stever20.)
02-01-2018 09:12 AM
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 1/29(updated)
Updated after yesterday:
Marquette- 9-9 gets them to 18-12- RPI of 54.3. 36.31% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 45.1, 13.17% chance)
Providence- 9-9 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 52.3. 70.04% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 42.7, 41.06% chance)
Butler- 8-10 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 53.6. 99.52% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 43.5, 96.40% chance)

Marquette- gone from on Monday 57.18% chance to 36.31% chance or 30.57% chance to 13.17% chance
Providence- gone from on Monday 78.70% chance to 70.04% chance or 52.69% chance to 41.06% chance
Butler- gone from on Monday 97.26% chance to 99.52% chance or 86.74% chance to 96.40% chance

Providence really I think needs Saturday now as much as Marquette does.
02-01-2018 10:53 AM
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/1(updated)
updated after Saturday(RPI Forecast hasn't updated for Sunday yet)
Marquette- 9-9 gets them to 18-12- RPI of 53.6. 16.41% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 46.0, 3.55% chance)
Providence- 9-9 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 49.1. 87.57% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 39.9, 63.57% chance)

Marquette- gone from on Monday 57.18% chance to 16.41% chance or 30.57% chance to 3.55% chance
Providence- gone from on Monday 78.70% chance to 87.57% chance or 52.69% chance to 63.57% chanc

both teams with crucial weeks....
Providence has home games with Georgetown and DePaul. They really must get both games.
Marquette has road games with Seton Hall and St John's. They must get at least 1 of those to have any shot at all whatsoever now. Losing both would put them at 13-12 and pretty much after that needing to win out to have any shot. Frankly, Marquette needs Saturday's game with St John's to almost have any shot at the NIT- 16-14 might not be good enough for that even(with a 74.3 RPI).
02-05-2018 06:59 PM
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/5(updated)
well well well. This will be an interesting update tomorrow. I'd guess it's back up to around 40% for Marquette for 18-12 and a 20% chance for 19-11.

Saturday will be a fascinating game with St John's. This may be the make or break game for Marquette quite frankly.
02-07-2018 10:30 PM
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/5(updated)
Still not feeling it, Stever. We have had too many make or break games that we have not taken this year. We may beat St. Johns (or lose), but I just don't see the finish to this year necessary in order to go dancing. Frankly, I would be pleased to get to the NIT with this team. There's just too much inconsistency.
02-08-2018 10:19 AM
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