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Odds of Making tourney- 2/24(updated)
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stever20 Online
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Post: #21
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/5(updated)
(02-08-2018 10:19 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Still not feeling it, Stever. We have had too many make or break games that we have not taken this year. We may beat St. Johns (or lose), but I just don't see the finish to this year necessary in order to go dancing. Frankly, I would be pleased to get to the NIT with this team. There's just too much inconsistency.

thing with it is Saturday is probably the toughest one left(pretty close between @ St John's and @ Georgetown).
02-08-2018 10:33 AM
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RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/5(updated)
updated after last night:
Marquette- 9-9 gets them to 18-12- RPI of 55.7. 35.11% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 47.4, 10.37% chance)
Providence- 9-9 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 49.6. 92.15% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 40.0, 69.57% chance)

Marquette- gone from on Monday 16.41% chance to 35.11% chance or 3.55% chance to 10.37% chance
Providence- gone from on Monday 87.57% chance to 92.15% chance or 63.57% chance to 69.57% chance

seems pretty fair- thought for Marquette the odds would be a bit better(40 instead of 35 and 20 instead of 10). I think a huge part of that is St John's has improved so that lowers the odds of that game(it's 54/46 for Marquette right now). If Marquette can win that game- their odds will really shoot up. A loss, and they have to bare minimum split with Creighton.
02-08-2018 12:49 PM
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Post: #23
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/8(updated)
updated after Saturday:
Marquette- 9-9 gets them to 18-12- RPI of 55.8. 17.26% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 46.5, 2.35% chance)
Providence- 9-9 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 51.0. 70.07% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 41.0, 34.26% chance)

Marquette- gone from on Monday 16.41% chance to 17.26% chance or 3.55% chance to 2.35% chance
Providence- gone from on Monday 87.57% chance to 70.07% chance or 63.57% chance to 34.26% chance

to me for Providence, they need to get 2 of 4 from Butler, Seton Hall, Georgetown, and St John's(or beat Nova or Xavier in that place). And they may need 3 of those 4.

For Marquette, it's 49.58% chances of getting even to 16-14, which would give them a shot at the NIT. All their losses finally coming back to hurt them.
02-12-2018 09:03 AM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/12(updated)
(02-12-2018 09:03 AM)stever20 Wrote:  updated after Saturday:
Marquette- 9-9 gets them to 18-12- RPI of 55.8. 17.26% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 46.5, 2.35% chance)
Providence- 9-9 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 51.0. 70.07% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 41.0, 34.26% chance)

Marquette- gone from on Monday 16.41% chance to 17.26% chance or 3.55% chance to 2.35% chance
Providence- gone from on Monday 87.57% chance to 70.07% chance or 63.57% chance to 34.26% chance

to me for Providence, they need to get 2 of 4 from Butler, Seton Hall, Georgetown, and St John's(or beat Nova or Xavier in that place). And they may need 3 of those 4.

For Marquette, it's 49.58% chances of getting even to 16-14, which would give them a shot at the NIT. All their losses finally coming back to hurt them.

Even if we qualify for the NIT, there's no guarantee we accept the spot either. Our admin has - in the past - viewed the NIT as "beneath" them (which is incredibly stupid, IMO). Any opportunity to play more and get more experience should be absolutely taken.
02-12-2018 10:41 AM
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Post: #25
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/12(updated)
(02-12-2018 10:41 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  
(02-12-2018 09:03 AM)stever20 Wrote:  updated after Saturday:
Marquette- 9-9 gets them to 18-12- RPI of 55.8. 17.26% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 46.5, 2.35% chance)
Providence- 9-9 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 51.0. 70.07% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 41.0, 34.26% chance)

Marquette- gone from on Monday 16.41% chance to 17.26% chance or 3.55% chance to 2.35% chance
Providence- gone from on Monday 87.57% chance to 70.07% chance or 63.57% chance to 34.26% chance

to me for Providence, they need to get 2 of 4 from Butler, Seton Hall, Georgetown, and St John's(or beat Nova or Xavier in that place). And they may need 3 of those 4.

For Marquette, it's 49.58% chances of getting even to 16-14, which would give them a shot at the NIT. All their losses finally coming back to hurt them.

Even if we qualify for the NIT, there's no guarantee we accept the spot either. Our admin has - in the past - viewed the NIT as "beneath" them (which is incredibly stupid, IMO). Any opportunity to play more and get more experience should be absolutely taken.

how long ago though was that? I know you skipped out on the CBI/CIT a few years ago after you didn't qualify for the NIT- which you totally understand.
02-12-2018 12:45 PM
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Post: #26
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/12(updated)
Wanted to do this for Butler before last night got shown-
Butler- 9-9 gets them to 19-12- RPI of 46.1. 94.91% chance of getting that(may be able to get in with 18 wins, RPI of 56.4, 99.62% chance of getting that
Seton Hall- 8-10 gets them to 19-12- RPI of 41.0. 93.1% chance of getting that
Marquette- 9-9 gets them to 18-12 RPI of 55.9. 16.97% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 46.7 2.08% chance)
Providence- 9-9 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 50.7. 70.92% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 40.8 34.88% chance)
02-14-2018 09:55 AM
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Post: #27
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/12(updated)
So for Butler- updated after last nights loss- 19-12 gets them to a RPI of 47.0 78.78% chance of getting that. for 18-13 RPI of 56.9. 97.17% chance of getting that now.

Just looking- the Providence game for Butler is their biggest favored game the rest of the year. That game IMO while not quite an elimination game is definitely a HUGE one. The loser would really need to go 2-1 rest of the way to feel safe(assuming PC loses to Nova and Xavier).
02-14-2018 06:24 PM
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Post: #28
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/12(updated)
Update after last night.
Butler- 9-9 gets them to 19-12- RPI of 46.3. 78.27% chance of getting that(may be able to get in with 18 wins, RPI of 56.3, 96.97% chance of getting that
Seton Hall- 8-10 gets them to 19-12- RPI of 39.3. 90.5% chance of getting that
Marquette- 9-9 gets them to 18-12 RPI of 55.4. 16.75% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 46.1 2.27% chance)
Providence- 9-9 gets them to 18-13- RPI of 49.8. 93.59% chance of getting that(may need 19 wins, RPI of 39.3 68.84% chance)
Just for Fun- St John's- 7-7 gets them to 17-13- RPI of 47.1. 2.57% chance of getting that

so right now it's funny- St John's has a better shot of winning out than Marquette.
02-15-2018 02:34 PM
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Post: #29
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/15(updated)
I'll update this tomorrow after the restarted Providence/Seton Hall gets posted. I think Providence is in some pretty serious trouble now.
02-22-2018 01:16 PM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/15(updated)
Thanks, Stever. Much appreciated.
02-22-2018 03:44 PM
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Post: #31
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/15(updated)
For your Marquette-
9-9 18-12 RPI of 55.7 59.78% chance
10-8 19-11 RPI of 44.0 17.81% chance

They may need 3 wins period rest of the way(to include conference tourney). going 2-1 getting to 55.7 and losing 1st rd of BET(even to a team like a Butler/Providence/Creighton) gets them to 18-13 and a RPI of 60. But going 3-0 to 44 RPI and losing 1st rd of BET gets them to 19-12 with a RPI of 50.
02-22-2018 03:51 PM
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gosports1 Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/15(updated)
PC is done. Unless of course if they somehow beat Xavier. They would also need to take 1 from either SJU or Georgetown to feel more secure going into BE tourney.
Most likely they will have to get to finals of BE tourney to be safe (and not loss all3 of their remaining games_
02-22-2018 06:02 PM
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Post: #33
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/15(updated)
I think they could get in(PC) if they beat both SJU and Georgetown. Even with a 1st rd BET loss. Just looking at RPI Forecast something like a 19-13 record with a 46 RPI. I would be absolutely stunned a team with that along with wins over both Nova and Xavier would be left out.
02-22-2018 10:28 PM
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Post: #34
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/15(updated)
so looking:
Creighton 10-8 20-10 39.4 RPI 61.06% Chance or 9-9 19-11 52.6 RPI 96.21% chance
Providence 10-8 19-12 40.1 RPI 38.81% chance or 9-9 18-13 52.6 RPI 84.11% chance
Marquette 10-8 19-11 44.0 RPI 16.77% chance or 9-9 18-12 55.7 RPI 58.63% chance
Seton Hall 8-10 19-12 39.7 RPI 100% chance
Butler 9-9 19-12 43.6 RPI 100% chance

for this weekend- just huge-
Villanova @ Creighton- Creighton gets to be a lock with a win.
Providence @ Georgetown
Marquette @ DePaul

for Providence and Marquette- pretty much must wins. I'd say especially for Providence who has really tough game with Xavier coming up.
02-23-2018 02:57 PM
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Post: #35
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/23(updated)
Marquette now- 9-9 18-12 55.6 RPI 25.97% chance
Providence now- 9-9 18-13 54.4 RPI 100% chance or 10-8 19-12 41.6 RPI 68.92% chance

Marquette now really behind the 8 ball. And Providence with a huge one on Saturday- I think they really need 1 more win to get in be it this week or in the BET.
02-26-2018 03:08 PM
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GoldenWarrior11 Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/24(updated)
Losing to DePaul will end up killing our RPI and our shot at making the tournament. That one was a backbreaker sadly.
02-27-2018 11:38 AM
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Post: #37
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/24(updated)
(02-27-2018 11:38 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Losing to DePaul will end up killing our RPI and our shot at making the tournament. That one was a backbreaker sadly.

I think looking at things if you can beat Creighton on Saturday, and then have St John's lose out(very possible, if not likely)- then beat St John's on Wednesday in the BET- projected RPI at that point is like 51. Very possibly in with that scenario. What is bizarre is if you saw DePaul- same thing- beat Creighton, beat DePaul, lose to Nova- RPI is like 58.
02-27-2018 12:05 PM
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gosports1 Offline
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Post: #38
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/24(updated)
beat Xavier and PC is in.No one expects a PC win. If they also lose at home to SJU and they are out (unless they make a deep run in the BE tourney)Its a shame because they have the talent.
02-27-2018 08:41 PM
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Post: #39
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/24(updated)
(02-27-2018 08:41 PM)gosports1 Wrote:  beat Xavier and PC is in.No one expects a PC win. If they also lose at home to SJU and they are out (unless they make a deep run in the BE tourney)Its a shame because they have the talent.

I think PC is really simple right now. Win 1 game, and they are in pretty much no matter what. Go 0-3, and they are done. They're as simple of a team for in/out as it comes IMO right now.
02-27-2018 10:02 PM
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gosports1 Offline
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Post: #40
RE: Odds of Making tourney- 2/24(updated)
PC was competitive tonight against Xavier. The loss probably no impact as it was expected. Hopefully Cooley will have his guys pumped and ready to go at the Dunk against St Johns on saturday
02-28-2018 10:36 PM
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