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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Randy Haynes
(01-22-2018 05:51 PM)Monarchblue Wrote:  
(01-22-2018 04:19 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(01-22-2018 12:30 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  To heck with what Randy says about his jumper. Let's all listen to Statsfan. He's got it all in his database and the kid simply cannot shoot it.

I mean, what I am posting are facts. If you want to argue a 30% 3 point shooter is a good shooter because of 7 games (really the last 2-3); fine. It isn't logical.

If he shoots 35% over the course of the season, that is a decent shooter. Some people look silly by claiming things are true despite what the numbers say with the only evidence is "lol, watch the games...stats are for looosers"
So are you completely dismissing the effect of having a guy who will shoot the 3 and force the defense to extend vs a player who the defense will not guard past 16 feet? Randy may not be the most consistent 3 point shooter, but he definitely good enough to require a defender. That makes a difference whether the stats show it or not.

Also, while we are all caught up in percentages, 5 percent is 5 per 100, of course. Randy has attempted about 100 3 pointers this season... 19 games. That is 5.3 attempts per game. 5 percent amounts to about one more made shot every 4 games. Hardly enough to make a difference.

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Of course it would show up in stats, the offense would be significantly better with him on the court (over a large sample).
01-22-2018 06:14 PM
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ODU BBALL Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Randy Haynes
(01-22-2018 04:23 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(01-22-2018 03:45 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  
(01-22-2018 01:57 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  To me, a comfortable jumper that swishes when Randy's foot (or feet) have breached the line is much better than what we have seeing at ODU in recent years. A comfortable two pointer without regard to inches below his feet is fine by me. My take is that if he were looking down at the last minute (ala Kemba) to stepback and then shoot it, Randy might not have the same comfort in his release. So I'm good with the two each time he is set.

But I will close with my biggest aggravation (and we've seen it from multiple players on the court for ODU and often at the same)...the player that gets the ball facing the basketball from 16-18 feet and the defender stays in the paint because the player is NO threat to score. So glad those days are over, well mostly over. We still have one on the court getting quite a few minutes and I'll give him a pass because he doesn't get it out there as much as these two or three players in the past did. It really pointed out an offensive liability and angered me (off the boards of course).

There is a great stat in the advanced analytics called Expected Shot Value. Basically, it's a weighted average of what a particular shot is worth. Based on Randy's shooting percentage from the mid-range, I'm not sure he should ever take anything other than layups or threes (as I do think there is spacing benefit to his willingness to shoot it beyond the arc, despite his percentages).

If you are interested in ESV, here is a good article that talks about it.

https://fansided.com/2015/08/17/nylon-ca...selection/

Its not possible to achieve, but certainly something to shoot for. The 3 types of shots that should be sought after are:

Layup
3 Pointer
A shot that results in a foul

Any other shot is inferior. Yes, there are the occasional Trey Freeman types, but they are not common. The Rockets are a good example. Long 2 point jumpers are something Jones need to cross out of his playbook, but he seems to like them.

The 3 types of shots that should be sought after really are:

Open shots (that can be made).
Wide open shots (that can be made).
OMG there's nobody within 20 feet of him - open shots (that can be made).
01-22-2018 07:06 PM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #63
RE: Randy Haynes
(01-22-2018 07:06 PM)ODU BBALL Wrote:  
(01-22-2018 04:23 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(01-22-2018 03:45 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  
(01-22-2018 01:57 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  To me, a comfortable jumper that swishes when Randy's foot (or feet) have breached the line is much better than what we have seeing at ODU in recent years. A comfortable two pointer without regard to inches below his feet is fine by me. My take is that if he were looking down at the last minute (ala Kemba) to stepback and then shoot it, Randy might not have the same comfort in his release. So I'm good with the two each time he is set.

But I will close with my biggest aggravation (and we've seen it from multiple players on the court for ODU and often at the same)...the player that gets the ball facing the basketball from 16-18 feet and the defender stays in the paint because the player is NO threat to score. So glad those days are over, well mostly over. We still have one on the court getting quite a few minutes and I'll give him a pass because he doesn't get it out there as much as these two or three players in the past did. It really pointed out an offensive liability and angered me (off the boards of course).

There is a great stat in the advanced analytics called Expected Shot Value. Basically, it's a weighted average of what a particular shot is worth. Based on Randy's shooting percentage from the mid-range, I'm not sure he should ever take anything other than layups or threes (as I do think there is spacing benefit to his willingness to shoot it beyond the arc, despite his percentages).

If you are interested in ESV, here is a good article that talks about it.

https://fansided.com/2015/08/17/nylon-ca...selection/

Its not possible to achieve, but certainly something to shoot for. The 3 types of shots that should be sought after are:

Layup
3 Pointer
A shot that results in a foul

Any other shot is inferior. Yes, there are the occasional Trey Freeman types, but they are not common. The Rockets are a good example. Long 2 point jumpers are something Jones need to cross out of his playbook, but he seems to like them.

The 3 types of shots that should be sought after really are:

Open shots (that can be made).
Wide open shots (that can be made).
OMG there's nobody within 20 feet of him - open shots (that can be made).

Not really. College kids dont make wide open 18 footers at an efficient clip. Jones offense creates a ton of open Jumpers.
01-22-2018 08:52 PM
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FearTheLion Offline
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Post: #64
RE: Randy Haynes
(01-22-2018 06:12 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  He's not a guy you want shooting 3s or trying to create shots due to his lack of efficiency.

I'm just going to go back to my silence because we just won't agree. And I'm amazed that you would say on this team that Randy Haynes is not a guy you want shooting 3's (with any qualifier behind it).

We just disagree, partna. And vehemently from my perspective.

I guess I should just take the bait for giggles and ask, who on our squad, be taking the 3s? I'll be sure and left Bryant and Jeff know.
01-22-2018 09:45 PM
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Monarchblue Offline
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Post: #65
Randy Haynes
That quote from Giles is just absurd. That logic should not apply to ANYBODY starting at the 1, 2, or 3. If you have any reasonable chance of making it, you have to be willing to shoot. If you don't have any chance of making a 3 pointer you should not be playing any of those 3 positions. The negative effect on the offense as a whole is far too detrimental.

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01-22-2018 10:52 PM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #66
RE: Randy Haynes
(01-22-2018 09:45 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  
(01-22-2018 06:12 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  He's not a guy you want shooting 3s or trying to create shots due to his lack of efficiency.

I'm just going to go back to my silence because we just won't agree. And I'm amazed that you would say on this team that Randy Haynes is not a guy you want shooting 3's (with any qualifier behind it).

We just disagree, partna. And vehemently from my perspective.

I guess I should just take the bait for giggles and ask, who on our squad, be taking the 3s? I'll be sure and left Bryant and Jeff know.

BJ, Huiett....maybe Caver.
01-22-2018 10:56 PM
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ODU BBALL Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Randy Haynes
(01-22-2018 08:52 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(01-22-2018 07:06 PM)ODU BBALL Wrote:  
(01-22-2018 04:23 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  
(01-22-2018 03:45 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  
(01-22-2018 01:57 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  To me, a comfortable jumper that swishes when Randy's foot (or feet) have breached the line is much better than what we have seeing at ODU in recent years. A comfortable two pointer without regard to inches below his feet is fine by me. My take is that if he were looking down at the last minute (ala Kemba) to stepback and then shoot it, Randy might not have the same comfort in his release. So I'm good with the two each time he is set.

But I will close with my biggest aggravation (and we've seen it from multiple players on the court for ODU and often at the same)...the player that gets the ball facing the basketball from 16-18 feet and the defender stays in the paint because the player is NO threat to score. So glad those days are over, well mostly over. We still have one on the court getting quite a few minutes and I'll give him a pass because he doesn't get it out there as much as these two or three players in the past did. It really pointed out an offensive liability and angered me (off the boards of course).

There is a great stat in the advanced analytics called Expected Shot Value. Basically, it's a weighted average of what a particular shot is worth. Based on Randy's shooting percentage from the mid-range, I'm not sure he should ever take anything other than layups or threes (as I do think there is spacing benefit to his willingness to shoot it beyond the arc, despite his percentages).

If you are interested in ESV, here is a good article that talks about it.

https://fansided.com/2015/08/17/nylon-ca...selection/

Its not possible to achieve, but certainly something to shoot for. The 3 types of shots that should be sought after are:

Layup
3 Pointer
A shot that results in a foul

Any other shot is inferior. Yes, there are the occasional Trey Freeman types, but they are not common. The Rockets are a good example. Long 2 point jumpers are something Jones need to cross out of his playbook, but he seems to like them.

The 3 types of shots that should be sought after really are:

Open shots (that can be made).
Wide open shots (that can be made).
OMG there's nobody within 20 feet of him - open shots (that can be made).

Not really. College kids dont make wide open 18 footers at an efficient clip. Jones offense creates a ton of open Jumpers.

So the term "that can be made" - by the kid shooting the ball - just went totally by you?

Besides that ... what is the basis of you stating that "college kids don't make wide open 18 footers at an efficient clip". Don't tell me that you pulled that off of some chart somewhere. I'm pretty sure it won't tell you how tightly the shooter was covered while shooting the shot, or how open he was.

A wide open shot taken by a competent shooter beats a tightly contested lay up, or a tightly contested 3 point attempt any day. Don't you think that might be the reason that Jones is trying to create all of those "ton of open jumpers" that you alluded to? Not saying that I agree with that assessment, but still ...
01-23-2018 12:34 AM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #68
RE: Randy Haynes
We ahoot 30.6% on 2 point jumpers. So 3’out of 10 or 6 points from 10 shots. Some guarded. Some not. The rate when open still isnt gonna be high enough to justify. I

Freeman was best jumper i have ever seen. Shot 43% or less than 9 points in 10 attempts. Equivalent to Haynes shooting 3s (30%).
01-23-2018 07:58 AM
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Monarchblue Offline
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Post: #69
RE: Randy Haynes
(01-23-2018 07:58 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  We ahoot 30.6% on 2 point jumpers. So 3’out of 10 or 6 points from 10 shots. Some guarded. Some not. The rate when open still isnt gonna be high enough to justify. I

Freeman was best jumper i have ever seen. Shot 43% or less than 9 points in 10 attempts. Equivalent to Haynes shooting 3s (30%).

Sooo you're saying Haynes should shoot more? 05-stirthepot02-13-banana
01-23-2018 09:28 AM
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odu09 Offline
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Post: #70
RE: Randy Haynes
Just think, if Randy shot it 83 times per game we'd be averaging 75 points per game! Let's go Randy
01-23-2018 09:31 AM
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paintedblue2 Offline
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Post: #71
RE: Randy Haynes
I was looking at 3pt. %'s and something remarkable stood out to me. B.J. Stith has increased his 3 pt. % from 25.3% last season to 41.9% currently this season. That is a huge improvement.
I knew it had gone up, but by almost 17 % pts. WOW! Way to go B.J.!
01-23-2018 10:05 AM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #72
RE: Randy Haynes
(01-23-2018 09:31 AM)odu09 Wrote:  Just think, if Randy shot it 83 times per game we'd be averaging 75 points per game! Let's go Randy

We would lose unless our defense was incredible.
01-23-2018 10:36 AM
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FearTheLion Offline
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Post: #73
RE: Randy Haynes
Hard to believe we finally agree on something.

Would love to see what would happen to BJ's 3 point percentage if he doubled his attempts from behind the arc. Do your advanced analytics guarantee a continuous rate of conversion? And if they do, we should shun the coaches and run our system like those successful stalwarts like D'Antoni or Westhead, lol.
01-23-2018 11:09 AM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #74
RE: Randy Haynes
(01-23-2018 11:09 AM)FearTheLion Wrote:  Hard to believe we finally agree on something.

Would love to see what would happen to BJ's 3 point percentage if he doubled his attempts from behind the arc. Do your advanced analytics guarantee a continuous rate of conversion? And if they do, we should shun the coaches and run our system like those successful stalwarts like D'Antoni or Westhead, lol.

I would suspect the percentage would come down a little, but hard to project. I would love to merge the defensive philosphy of jones with the offense of D'Antoni, but it probably wont work because you have to recruit players to fit your system. Villanova is the best at merging good offense and defense, IMO.
01-23-2018 11:19 AM
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Post: #75
RE: Randy Haynes
I'd bet the percentage would come down a LOT. It's the law of large numbers. actuaries, insurance statisticians, demographers, they all do that well but not many of them can win in Vegas with respect to a large number of these competitor matchups.

Philosophy on philosophy probably won't tell you much either. It's very dependent on the talent on the floor within both systems which is why disciples of coaches don't always achieve similar results when they get their shot--usually at a smallish program.

So it really still comes down to how good the players are within the system, particularly when and how they decide to pull the trigger and when and how they decide to create plays on defense. Which is why Randy Haynes is adding so much off (and certainly on) the stat sheet for ODU right now. Glad you've come around now--LOL.
01-23-2018 12:29 PM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #76
RE: Randy Haynes
Randy has done ok. We are 1.6 points better per 100 possessions with him on the court than off.

Others of note:

Porter- 7.8
BJ- 6.3
Caver- 4.9
Brnadan 5.5
Hueitt 1.3
01-23-2018 12:37 PM
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757ODU Offline
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Post: #77
RE: Randy Haynes
How frustrating is it when Giles says Randy shouldn’t shoot 3’s? Absolutely ridiculous.
01-23-2018 12:49 PM
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JJMonarch Offline
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Post: #78
RE: Randy Haynes
(01-23-2018 12:49 PM)757ODU Wrote:  How frustrating is it when Giles says Randy shouldn’t shoot 3’s? Absolutely ridiculous.

Yes!!!!
01-23-2018 12:53 PM
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mturn017 Offline
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Post: #79
RE: Randy Haynes
I'd assumed that statement was a joke when I read it
01-23-2018 01:00 PM
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Gilesfan Offline
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Post: #80
RE: Randy Haynes
Not going to change my mind. I'm not a fan of 30% 3 point shooters shooting them. If he can prove over the course of a larger sample that he can hit them, then fine. You can say it opens up other things, but that would show up.

We are averaging 1.051 points per possession on offense (almost top 100!). If Randy can hit 35% of his 3s, a 3 point shot is equal to what our average offense is. Right now, we score .90 ppp when he shoots a 3. If he can maintain what he's done over the past 2 games, I'm happy.
01-23-2018 01:11 PM
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