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(01-22-2018 10:09 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 08:55 AM)757ODU Wrote:  Up to 37% from 3 in conference play.

He should totally stop shooting.

Leave him open.

(01-22-2018 10:10 AM)757ODU Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 10:09 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 08:55 AM)757ODU Wrote:  Up to 37% from 3 in conference play.

He should totally stop shooting.

Leave him open.

Lets just hope this tiny sample is more indicative than the rest of the season and he continues!

(01-22-2018 10:36 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  Lets just hope this tiny sample is more indicative than the rest of the season and he continues!

Tiny sample? I would say the sample you are basing your position off (last season) is the smaller sample size.

(01-22-2018 10:42 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 10:36 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  Lets just hope this tiny sample is more indicative than the rest of the season and he continues!

Tiny sample? I would say the sample you are basing your position off (last season) is the smaller sample size.

Not basing anything off "just" last year.

144 total 3s attempted. 26% last year; 30% this year. 37% in last 7 games. Just hope he keeps that up!

(01-22-2018 10:44 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 10:42 AM)Monarchblue Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 10:36 AM)Gilesfan Wrote:  Lets just hope this tiny sample is more indicative than the rest of the season and he continues!

Tiny sample? I would say the sample you are basing your position off (last season) is the smaller sample size.

Not basing anything off "just" last year.

144 total 3s attempted. 26% last year; 30% this year. 37% in last 7 games. Just hope he keeps that up!

We need two of the three of Randy, BJ and Caver hitting 3's at a rate of at least 35-40% to be affective. That should keep us competitive against the top half of the league on most nights. When that doesn't happen we become very one dimensional on offense and end up trading 2 points baskets for 3 points baskets like we did against WKU.

Randy is a good shooter when he takes shots in rhythm. When he takes bad shots, he misses. That's pretty much the end of the story.

(01-22-2018 11:42 AM)757ODU Wrote:  Randy is a good shooter when he takes shots in rhythm. When he takes bad shots, he misses. That's pretty much the end of the story.

Yep, he talked about this in the postgame with Ted and Dave on Thursday night. He basically said, "For me, it's all about what I do before the shot. If I get my feet and shoulders right before the shot (even before catching the ball), I'm a much better shooter."

To heck with what Randy says about his jumper. Let's all listen to Statsfan. He's got it all in his database and the kid simply cannot shoot it.

(01-22-2018 12:30 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  To heck with what Randy says about his jumper. Let's all listen to Statsfan. He's got it all in his database and the kid simply cannot shoot it.

To be fair, Randy IS a career 29% shooter from deep, and shooting 30% this year.

Yes, he had a good weekend in Florida, and we all WANT him to shoot 35% or better, but you can't ignore he did have a 5 game stretch this season where he was 6-33.

Now, I'll listen to a discussion about whether it's good for us because at least he's willing to shoot it, but statistics do mean something.

I have much less of a problem with Randy jacking up threes than I do with his taking 2 or 3 shots per game with his feet on the line. That is ALWAYS a bad shot.

Randy and Ahmad both being able to spot up from 3 or handle the ball well to take it inside make them a tougher person to handle defensively. The defense has to choose whether to take away the outside shot or take away the inside drive. If help comes then they can dish to Porter or Brandan for the finish. That's part of the reason why we are scoring more points this year despite not attempting many from 3 (11th in the conference)

(01-22-2018 11:42 AM)757ODU Wrote:  Randy is a good shooter when he takes shots in rhythm. When he takes bad shots, he misses. That's pretty much the end of the story.

Anecdotal.


*Sarcasm

(01-22-2018 12:39 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 12:30 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  To heck with what Randy says about his jumper. Let's all listen to Statsfan. He's got it all in his database and the kid simply cannot shoot it.

To be fair, Randy IS a career 29% shooter from deep, and shooting 30% this year.

Yes, he had a good weekend in Florida, and we all WANT him to shoot 35% or better, but you can't ignore he did have a 5 game stretch this season where he was 6-33.

Now, I'll listen to a discussion about whether it's good for us because at least he's willing to shoot it, but statistics do mean something.

I have much less of a problem with Randy jacking up threes than I do with his taking 2 or 3 shots per game with his feet on the line. That is ALWAYS a bad shot.

I agree with you that stats mean something but sometimes it goes much deeper than that. You have to let a guy get comfortable in the flow of the offense, as well as getting used to the higher usage rate and minutes played. Seems like Randy is settling in.

(01-22-2018 12:39 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  To be fair, Randy IS a career 29% shooter from deep, and shooting 30% this year.

Yes, he had a good weekend in Florida, and we all WANT him to shoot 35% or better, but you can't ignore he did have a 5 game stretch this season where he was 6-33.

Now, I'll listen to a discussion about whether it's good for us because at least he's willing to shoot it, but statistics do mean something.

I have much less of a problem with Randy jacking up threes than I do with his taking 2 or 3 shots per game with his feet on the line. That is ALWAYS a bad shot.

Yes, but my contention all along was that we needed the threat of his knocking them down to bring teams out of those consistent zone/sagging man defenses we saw all year long. So I wanted him to pull up often. The objector said he shouldn't because he wasn't a shooter. In fact, he even said he shouldn't even be shooting at all, as if he wouldn't even help the team with the jumpers he made. And of course, the never-ending conversation has now morphed to his three point percentage.

To me, a comfortable jumper that swishes when Randy's foot (or feet) have breached the line is much better than what we have seeing at ODU in recent years. A comfortable two pointer without regard to inches below his feet is fine by me. My take is that if he were looking down at the last minute (ala Kemba) to stepback and then shoot it, Randy might not have the same comfort in his release. So I'm good with the two each time he is set.

But I will close with my biggest aggravation (and we've seen it from multiple players on the court for ODU and often at the same)...the player that gets the ball facing the basketball from 16-18 feet and the defender stays in the paint because the player is NO threat to score. So glad those days are over, well mostly over. We still have one on the court getting quite a few minutes and I'll give him a pass because he doesn't get it out there as much as these two or three players in the past did. It really pointed out an offensive liability and angered me (off the boards of course).

(01-22-2018 01:57 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  To me, a comfortable jumper that swishes when Randy's foot (or feet) have breached the line is much better than what we have seeing at ODU in recent years. A comfortable two pointer without regard to inches below his feet is fine by me. My take is that if he were looking down at the last minute (ala Kemba) to stepback and then shoot it, Randy might not have the same comfort in his release. So I'm good with the two each time he is set.

But I will close with my biggest aggravation (and we've seen it from multiple players on the court for ODU and often at the same)...the player that gets the ball facing the basketball from 16-18 feet and the defender stays in the paint because the player is NO threat to score. So glad those days are over, well mostly over. We still have one on the court getting quite a few minutes and I'll give him a pass because he doesn't get it out there as much as these two or three players in the past did. It really pointed out an offensive liability and angered me (off the boards of course).

There is a great stat in the advanced analytics called Expected Shot Value. Basically, it's a weighted average of what a particular shot is worth. Based on Randy's shooting percentage from the mid-range, I'm not sure he should ever take anything other than layups or threes (as I do think there is spacing benefit to his willingness to shoot it beyond the arc, despite his percentages).

If you are interested in ESV, here is a good article that talks about it.

https://fansided.com/2015/08/17/nylon-ca...selection/

(01-22-2018 12:30 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  To heck with what Randy says about his jumper. Let's all listen to Statsfan. He's got it all in his database and the kid simply cannot shoot it.

I mean, what I am posting are facts. If you want to argue a 30% 3 point shooter is a good shooter because of 7 games (really the last 2-3); fine. It isn't logical.

If he shoots 35% over the course of the season, that is a decent shooter. Some people look silly by claiming things are true despite what the numbers say with the only evidence is "lol, watch the games...stats are for looosers"

(01-22-2018 03:45 PM)ODUCoach Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 01:57 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  To me, a comfortable jumper that swishes when Randy's foot (or feet) have breached the line is much better than what we have seeing at ODU in recent years. A comfortable two pointer without regard to inches below his feet is fine by me. My take is that if he were looking down at the last minute (ala Kemba) to stepback and then shoot it, Randy might not have the same comfort in his release. So I'm good with the two each time he is set.

But I will close with my biggest aggravation (and we've seen it from multiple players on the court for ODU and often at the same)...the player that gets the ball facing the basketball from 16-18 feet and the defender stays in the paint because the player is NO threat to score. So glad those days are over, well mostly over. We still have one on the court getting quite a few minutes and I'll give him a pass because he doesn't get it out there as much as these two or three players in the past did. It really pointed out an offensive liability and angered me (off the boards of course).

There is a great stat in the advanced analytics called Expected Shot Value. Basically, it's a weighted average of what a particular shot is worth. Based on Randy's shooting percentage from the mid-range, I'm not sure he should ever take anything other than layups or threes (as I do think there is spacing benefit to his willingness to shoot it beyond the arc, despite his percentages).

If you are interested in ESV, here is a good article that talks about it.

https://fansided.com/2015/08/17/nylon-ca...selection/

Its not possible to achieve, but certainly something to shoot for. The 3 types of shots that should be sought after are:

Layup
3 Pointer
A shot that results in a foul

Any other shot is inferior. Yes, there are the occasional Trey Freeman types, but they are not common. The Rockets are a good example. Long 2 point jumpers are something Jones need to cross out of his playbook, but he seems to like them.

I'm all for examining stats for trends over large swaths of games. But when I talked about Haynes early in the season, it didn't warrant looking at stats because we had none for 2018. The fundamental flaw in your argument at that time is that it would assume that he wasn't going to improve and many players do. And for me, it never was about three point shooting, just scoring. I am not arguing about the difference between 30% and 35%, I'm not arguing about 3 pointers vs 2 pointers where his foot is on the line. I'm just telling you (and Coach) a HUGE reason why ODU is winning. And it is largely due to the effect of Randy Haynes being a scorer beside the ones we already had. And a lot of his scoring has and will continue to be TWOs. It is yielding wins---ESV or not.

So the better stat to examine for his 2018 expected impact could have included an analysis of rising seniors across a large number of games that have similar junior years as he did. Now I know you didn't do that (nor would I), but that would at least incorporate an expectation of a player's progression and improvement through summer practice into a senior year. In the absence of that, I just had to tell you that the man can shoot it--and he's doing that about as well as anyone on that team--end of story. And if you still need more proof, you should watch a little harder.

(01-22-2018 04:19 PM)Gilesfan Wrote:  

(01-22-2018 12:30 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  To heck with what Randy says about his jumper. Let's all listen to Statsfan. He's got it all in his database and the kid simply cannot shoot it.

I mean, what I am posting are facts. If you want to argue a 30% 3 point shooter is a good shooter because of 7 games (really the last 2-3); fine. It isn't logical.

If he shoots 35% over the course of the season, that is a decent shooter. Some people look silly by claiming things are true despite what the numbers say with the only evidence is "lol, watch the games...stats are for looosers"

So are you completely dismissing the effect of having a guy who will shoot the 3 and force the defense to extend vs a player who the defense will not guard past 16 feet? Randy may not be the most consistent 3 point shooter, but he definitely good enough to require a defender. That makes a difference whether the stats show it or not.

Also, while we are all caught up in percentages, 5 percent is 5 per 100, of course. Randy has attempted about 100 3 pointers this season... 19 games. That is 5.3 attempts per game. 5 percent amounts to about one more made shot every 4 games. Hardly enough to make a difference.

Sent from my Pixel C using Tapatalk

(01-22-2018 05:39 PM)FearTheLion Wrote:  I'm all for examining stats for trends over large swaths of games. But when I talked about Haynes early in the season, it didn't warrant looking at stats because we had none for 2018. The fundamental flaw in your argument at that time is that it would assume that he wasn't going to improve and many players do. And for me, it never was about three point shooting, just scoring. I am not arguing about the difference between 30% and 35%, I'm not arguing about 3 pointers vs 2 pointers where his foot is on the line. I'm just telling you (and Coach) a HUGE reason why ODU is winning. And it is largely due to the effect of Randy Haynes being a scorer beside the ones we already had. And a lot of his scoring has and will continue to be TWOs. It is yielding wins---ESV or not.

So the better stat to examine for his 2018 expected impact could have included an analysis of rising seniors across a large number of games that have similar junior years as he did. Now I know you didn't do that (nor would I), but that would at least incorporate an expectation of a player's progression and improvement through summer practice into a senior year. In the absence of that, I just had to tell you that the man can shoot it--and he's doing that about as well as anyone on that team--end of story. And if you still need more proof, you should watch a little harder.

I have no problem projecting growth. Most players do get better. At this rate, Haynes is a little better than last year. If he can maintain the conferense success over the remaining games then that would be fantastic and we can all be happy. I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think he is a 35% shooter based on track record and his shooting mechanics.

Haynes has been a quality player for us this year. I have never argued otherwise. But, I think people seem to be overhyping him. His offensive rating is below every player on the team except Green (102.7). He's not an efficient player (true shooting of .489; below everyone besides Carver and Green). Doesn't draw fouls, etc.

He's shot the ball better from 3 in conference and has a higher efficiency, but his O-rating is still 101.7 in conference.

Glad we have him, we would probably be in trouble with out him. He brings good defense and athleticism. He's not a guy you want shooting 3s or trying to create shots due to his lack of efficiency.