Hello There, Guest! (LoginRegister)

Post Reply 
Hofstra
Author Message
Bookmark and Share
metsox Offline
Water Engineer
*

Posts: 36
Joined: Mar 2016
Reputation: 0
I Root For: Drexel
Location:
Post: #21
RE: Hofstra
Speaking to WB's stats, I'll caveat that these things don't become stable until about 30 games into the season, so everything thus far should be considered small sample. Only major outliers should be reviewed with scrutiny, which leads me to takeaway the following:

These numbers seem to confirm my eye test with regards to Isabell (who I think has improved and is fitting better into the system of late as well) as the teams best player, and also my overwhelming concern with Troy Harper. I haven't viewed him as THAT atrocious thus far, but will be taking a far more critical eye to his performance in the next few games to see if anything stands out to me.


JB, this isn't my forum to run, but I'd tell you to be very careful about discussing statistics that you don't understand if I were moderating this place.
01-17-2018 11:54 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Water Boy Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 292
Joined: Dec 2014
Reputation: 0
I Root For: Drexel
Location:
Post: #22
RE: Hofstra
(01-17-2018 10:28 AM)J.B. Wrote:  Wow. Those numbers are just pure embarrassment. All CAA opponents should be licking their chops to step on the floor against this team.

If it is any consolation, there are some lineup combinations that have at least been okay.
One of the more striking ones is that when Lee and Isabell are on the court together (which has been about half of the total time), we are +22. Since we are -92 overall, that means we are -114 when Lee and Isabell are not on the court together.

Put Stretch and Samme in with Lee and Isabell, the number goes to +43. These four have been on the court together for only 30% of the time. Projected to 40 minutes, the plus/minus would project to +7 per game.

Throw in Demir (which right now is the starting lineup), the overall is +22 in 18% of the minutes. Although in less time, Doles(+9 in 66 minutes) and Green (+16 in 56 minutes) have been good when together with Lee-Isabell-Mojica-Williams.
01-17-2018 12:20 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Water Boy Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 292
Joined: Dec 2014
Reputation: 0
I Root For: Drexel
Location:
Post: #23
RE: Hofstra
Even though I'm putting this +/- stats up. I do agree with Metsox that they are a bit flaky especially for combinations with small numbers of minutes. That being said there are certain trends that seem to occur over and over and are not just skewed by certain games.
01-17-2018 12:30 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
dan10 Offline
1st String
*

Posts: 1,840
Joined: Feb 2015
Reputation: 12
I Root For: Drexel
Location: Indianapolis
Post: #24
RE: Hofstra
(01-16-2018 09:48 AM)J.B. Wrote:  
(01-16-2018 09:22 AM)dan10 Wrote:  
(01-16-2018 02:07 AM)bmf25 Wrote:  Once again, lets examine the root cause of why Bruiser's quality of players dropped

1. Departures of VCU, George Mason, Old Dominion /// The CAA used to be a premiere, multi-bid conference
2. Lack of appearances on TV
3. Pennsylvania has middle school gyms with nicer facilities

This conference is still getting good players, so that is not completely true at all. Drexel has always been a tough sell even during the high period of the conference. Drexel always struggled with tv games and never had viewership anyhow. Streaming games is a better option for Drexel than having it on the comcast network that very few people had access to.

You need to do both. CAA.TV is great for the Drexel fan living in Indiana, but the feed is really crappy and well below broadcast quality. You say that "very few people" have access to the Comcast Network. It's now NBC Sports Philadelphia Plus. 1-2 million people get this channel. I will bet that even a poorly rated Drexel game on NBCSP+ got tens of thousands more viewers than that dozens to hundreds that tune into CAA.TV. The fact that Drexel has just 1 game on cable TV this year is a complete joke. But the CAA is a lot more to blame for this than Drexel.

Sure but my viewpoint isnt actually from here in Indiana. Even at my parent's place hour and a half outside of Philadelphia TCN was non existent. So sure if everyone is in Philadelphia there is some access, but in general of any fanbase that is not realistic. Far more people dont remain directly in Philadelphia afterwards. So yes having games on random cable channels is nice as sports fans who flip through channels and run into games to watch, for trying to get Drexel fans to watch, streaming makes more sense. It is also the way tv is going. I am not saying our streams can't be improved upon, but streaming is definitely a viable option in today's worlds as more and more cut cords.
01-17-2018 12:38 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
MedicSBK Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 133
Joined: Oct 2016
Reputation: 0
I Root For: Drexel
Location:
Post: #25
RE: Hofstra
Harper's +/- in the last game actually surprised me, and I think it was more due to his lack of offensive production rather than his defensive play.

Harp is a strange case. I think he has the ability to be a strong defender. The coaching staff needs to hold his feet to the fire, especially if he is going to be the first man off the bench. He's not a lights out shooter who is going to dump in 9-10 and then head back to his seat. He's being expected to fill a role. He also THRIVES off of drawing fouls. When the calls arent going his way he need to figure out how to contribute in other ways.

He has the hustle factor... see the video of him going throw Knight's legs, or his athletic follow-up dunk.

As for Tadas, I've seen some SERIOUS defensive lapses... not switching off on a pick etc. much like I have with Doles who ended up on the completely wrong side of the court in a 2-3 zone when he chased his player out of position. Those are coaching problems.

This is still a young team. Isabell is bringing some veteran leadership.. Harp could do a little better in that aspect, especially defensively. Lee is playing beyond his years, and his defensive prowess is, believe it or not, better.

WB, any way to adjust some of those numbers to /40 or /game? I find that to be a normalizing balancing technique with a lot of things, although it might not work for your percentages. Harper, for example, is deceptive because he was injured, so his 34% minutes isnt exactly accurate.
01-17-2018 04:32 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
MedicSBK Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 133
Joined: Oct 2016
Reputation: 0
I Root For: Drexel
Location:
Post: #26
RE: Hofstra
(01-17-2018 10:28 AM)J.B. Wrote:  Wow. Those numbers are just pure embarrassment. All CAA opponents should be licking their chops to step on the floor against this team.

Not quite... If you want to look at +/-, its going to tell you one story, but you also need to look at the entirety of a team's work.

With adjusted defense, for example, as a team, and defense is a team aspect, Drexel is in the middle of the CAA pack at 108.7. While they are near the bottom right now in conference play, there are two games that you can point at for the root cause of that: William & Mary and UNCW.

Their offense is improving. They are controlling the ball. Their TO% is down to 14.8%, 3rd in the conference, and a significant improvement. Their 3 point shooting stinks, but their 2 point shooting is at 53.3%. Again, a significant improvement.

Now, what do they have to do?

1. They need to control the defensive boards better. They are giving up too many defensive rebounds.
2. They need to control opponents' post men. The last 3 games, they've been beaten up down low.

The return of Tyshawn Myles should help both of these. Austin needs to play soft right now because there is not much behind him. They also need to consider doubling a strong post man when he gets the ball. Let a pesky little guy bang around at the ball and make their lives more difficult.

3. Recognize they are not a 3 point shooting team. They need to work the ball inside. Drive. Play to their strengths, and shoot more sparingly when they get open looks, or hit streaks. Once the streaks end, its time to start working the ball inside again. Whether we admit it or not, Kari's departure hurt us. Badly. And it all had VERY bad timing.

This isnt a Bruiser Flint defensively coached team. He will, however, probably be unemployed again before long, so hey, wanna kick the tires on his effectiveness? We can always talk about getting fired twice in 5 years' time..

This also isnt the Women's team. They are having a terrific season and deserve attention, but that does not mean we cannot stand by our men's team.

They are not the Squash Team. Its a shame the administration doesnt treat them like they are.

Its not easy to support a losing team, but hey, this is my third year as a season ticket holder, and roughly my 25th year as a Drexel fan. I never turned my back on this team when we didnt make a single tournament appearance under the previous regime, and I dont plan on turning my back on them now.
(This post was last modified: 01-17-2018 04:48 PM by MedicSBK.)
01-17-2018 04:45 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
bmf25 Offline
Water Engineer
*

Posts: 43
Joined: Jan 2017
Reputation: 0
I Root For: Drexel
Location:
Post: #27
RE: Hofstra
(01-17-2018 04:45 PM)MedicSBK Wrote:  I never turned my back on this team when we didnt make a single tournament appearance under the previous regime, and I dont plan on turning my back on them now.


The regime is still the same, Zillmer has always been the ship captain.

[Image: 200Iceberg.jpg]
01-17-2018 05:24 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Water Boy Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 292
Joined: Dec 2014
Reputation: 0
I Root For: Drexel
Location:
Post: #28
RE: Hofstra
(01-17-2018 04:32 PM)MedicSBK Wrote:  WB, any way to adjust some of those numbers to /40 or /game? I find that to be a normalizing balancing technique with a lot of things, although it might not work for your percentages. Harper, for example, is deceptive because he was injured, so his 34% minutes isnt exactly accurate.

Normalization is really what I was trying to do with everything other than the +/- numbers in the table I posted. In my spreadsheet I do have a column for +/- for 40 minutes, I just didn't show it in what I posted.

The way I am looking at the offense/defense stuff is normalizing things by the minutes played. For example, if you play 35% of the minutes you would expect that during that time the team would have scored 35% if their points and given up 35% of the opponents points. If you look at Harper who has played 35% of the time, in his time the opponents scored 37% of their points and we only scored 33% of our points. Do the math and see that the opponent score at 105% of their normal rate and we only score at 96% of our normal rate hence his RDiff of -9%.

Something else I do is to normalize by game. So I keep track of the plus and the minus, but then in addition I keep track of the fraction of the games plus and minus. So say a player has a plus of 50 and a minus of 60 in a 80-90 game. The player would record a fractional plus of .62 and a fractional minus of 0.66. The effect of this is to smooth out a bit the extreme games like Elon and UNCW.

These kind of stats are not perfect by any means but they do tell at least some stories that are with merit.
01-18-2018 02:12 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Water Boy Offline
2nd String
*

Posts: 292
Joined: Dec 2014
Reputation: 0
I Root For: Drexel
Location:
Post: #29
RE: Hofstra
(01-17-2018 04:32 PM)MedicSBK Wrote:  Harper's +/- in the last game actually surprised me, and I think it was more due to his lack of offensive production rather than his defensive play.

Harp is a strange case. I think he has the ability to be a strong defender. The coaching staff needs to hold his feet to the fire, especially if he is going to be the first man off the bench. He's not a lights out shooter who is going to dump in 9-10 and then head back to his seat. He's being expected to fill a role. He also THRIVES off of drawing fouls. When the calls arent going his way he need to figure out how to contribute in other ways.

He has the hustle factor... see the video of him going throw Knight's legs, or his athletic follow-up dunk.

I watched some of the game again last night and would say the following about Harper's play. From my layman's eye watching the game, Harper contributed a lot to the -15 in the first half. While you can't say it was all his fault he had bad plays on both the offensive and defensive sides of the ball. In the second half, he came in and Hofstra promptly went on a 10-1 run. For that run Harper wasn't necessarily making many bad plays; it was more from Isabell (and probably others) playing shoddy defense. While he did have some bad defensive plays here and there, the second half was much better for Harper and he was in for at least part of the comeback.

I did think this was his best passing game of the year. He had three assists but there were some more plays where his good passes led to fouls or shots that should have been converted and weren't.
01-18-2018 10:42 AM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
EvanJ Offline
Special Teams
*

Posts: 558
Joined: Feb 2015
Reputation: 4
I Root For: Hofstra and FSU
Location: Near New York City
Post: #30
RE: Hofstra
(01-17-2018 04:45 PM)MedicSBK Wrote:  They need to control the defensive boards better. They are giving up too many defensive rebounds.
When they don't get defensive rebounds, they give up offensive rebounds. They're fifth in the CAA in defensive rebounds per game but ninth in defensive rebound percentage, which is defensive rebounds/(defensive rebounds + opponents' offensive rebounds).
01-18-2018 04:49 PM
Visit this user's website Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
MedicSBK Offline
Bench Warmer
*

Posts: 133
Joined: Oct 2016
Reputation: 0
I Root For: Drexel
Location:
Post: #31
RE: Hofstra
(01-18-2018 04:49 PM)EvanJ Wrote:  
(01-17-2018 04:45 PM)MedicSBK Wrote:  They need to control the defensive boards better. They are giving up too many defensive rebounds.
When they don't get defensive rebounds, they give up offensive rebounds. They're fifth in the CAA in defensive rebounds per game but ninth in defensive rebound percentage, which is defensive rebounds/(defensive rebounds + opponents' offensive rebounds).

Yeah, that was a typo.. my bad.. Thanks for the catch.
01-18-2018 06:12 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
J.B. Offline
Moderator
*

Posts: 726
Joined: Feb 2015
Reputation: 0
I Root For: Drexel
Location:
Post: #32
RE: Hofstra
(01-17-2018 11:54 AM)metsox Wrote:  Speaking to WB's stats, I'll caveat that these things don't become stable until about 30 games into the season, so everything thus far should be considered small sample. Only major outliers should be reviewed with scrutiny, which leads me to takeaway the following:

These numbers seem to confirm my eye test with regards to Isabell (who I think has improved and is fitting better into the system of late as well) as the teams best player, and also my overwhelming concern with Troy Harper. I haven't viewed him as THAT atrocious thus far, but will be taking a far more critical eye to his performance in the next few games to see if anything stands out to me.


JB, this isn't my forum to run, but I'd tell you to be very careful about discussing statistics that you don't understand if I were moderating this place.

I'm not the moderator here. But what am I missing? The team gives up more points than they score when every player on the team is on the court. Drexel gives up over 100 points more than they score when one of our regular guards is on the court. Isn't that a bad thing? What am I not understanding here?
01-18-2018 08:47 PM
Find all posts by this user Quote this message in a reply
Post Reply 




User(s) browsing this thread: 1 Guest(s)


Copyright © 2002-2018 Collegiate Sports Nation Bulletin Board System (CSNbbs), All Rights Reserved.
CSNbbs is an independent fan site and is in no way affiliated to the NCAA or any of the schools and conferences it represents.
This site monetizes links. FTC Disclosure.
We allow third-party companies to serve ads and/or collect certain anonymous information when you visit our web site. These companies may use non-personally identifiable information (e.g., click stream information, browser type, time and date, subject of advertisements clicked or scrolled over) during your visits to this and other Web sites in order to provide advertisements about goods and services likely to be of greater interest to you. These companies typically use a cookie or third party web beacon to collect this information. To learn more about this behavioral advertising practice or to opt-out of this type of advertising, you can visit http://www.networkadvertising.org.
Powered By MyBB, © 2002-2018 MyBB Group.