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B12 Expansion Model
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #41
RE: B12 Expansion Model
(01-15-2018 05:21 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  Nerd: I would jettison WVU, add:

CSU
BYU
USU
BSU
SMU
HOUSTON
WYOMING
TULANE/RICE/TULSA

Utah State and Wyoming are definitely not getting invites. If any Houston-area school is invited, it's UH hands-down. Rice doesn't have a chance. As long as TCU is in the conference, SMU is superfluous. Tulsa is of dubious value. Tulane is only of academic value, which would be of low importance to a rebuilding Big 12. BYU and Boise aren't bad choices, although each has downsides, especially when it comes to travel distance. You're concerned about Florida teams in the Big 12, but Boise is even farther away from the Texas heart of the Big 12. An expanding/rebuilding Big 12 would be wiser to add schools in the Central and Eastern time zones, rather than the sparsely-populated Mountain time zone. Maybe pick up just CSU, but even then, I don't see the real advantage in doing so when most of the best expansion targets are farther east.
(This post was last modified: 01-15-2018 05:50 PM by Nerdlinger.)
01-15-2018 05:48 PM
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Erictelevision Offline
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Post: #42
RE: B12 Expansion Model
You're right about the MT time zone being sparsely populated. I think UH and either CSU or SMU make most sense. Shore up TX, "Iron Skillet" rivalry in conference, expand into CO (the only new state in region worth it)
01-15-2018 06:18 PM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #43
RE: B12 Expansion Model
Actually the 4 corners State (Mountain Time) are growing extremely rapid


PHP Code:
State    1980    2000    2016
AZ        2.717    5.161    6.931
CO        2.890    4.327    5.541
UT        1.461    2.245    3.051
NM        1.303    1.821    2.081
----------    -------    -------    -------
4-Corners    8.371    13.554    17.604

AL        3.894    4.452    4.863
LA        4.206    4.472    4.682
MS        2.521    2.848    2.989
AR        2.286    2.679    2.988
----------    -------    -------    -------
Deep So    12.907    14.451    15.522

MA        5.737    6.361    6.784
CT        3.108    3.412    3.585
NH        0.921    1.240    1.335
ME        1.125    1.227    1.331
RI        0.947    1.050    1.056
VT        0.511    0.609    0.624
----------    -------    -------    -------
NE        12.349    13.899    14.815

MO        4.917    5.607    6.093
OK        3.025    3.454    3.924
IA        2.914    9.929    3.135
KS        2.364    2.694    2.907

TN        4.591    5.704    6.651    
SC        3.121    4.024    4.961
KY        3.660    4.049    4.437

IL        11.43    12.43    12.80
OH        10.80    11.36    11.61
MI        9.262    9.952    9.928
IN        5.490    6.092    6.663
WI        4.706    5.374    5.779
MN        4.076    4.934    5.552 

The States which are growing equally fast as the four corners are Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, Oregon, Washington, Nevada (ridiculous growth), Idaho.

California is growing a bit slower, but faster than the non 4 corner states listed in the table. Florida is growing so fast it's ridiculous (where are they going to put everyone), they may pass New York and rival Texas for 2nd in a couple decades.

Basically what is growing is the West, Texas, and the Atlantic Coast from DC south. The Upper South and Deep South appear to be done with their rapid growth.

But it is amazing to see how quickly the 4 corners and also the Pacific Northwest blew past New England and the four deepest South States in just a couple decades. In two decades this will have a major electoral impact when 5 or 6 western states will be more important than all but a couple the Midwest states and all the non-coastal southern states. Heck even poor-man New Mexico in 20 years is likely to pass states like Kansas, Mississippi and Arkansas in population.

This rapid growth is why I have no long term fears about the P12 (or ACC given their core area growth). Demographics are in their favor in the long run, and in research they already dominate (most healthy schools of anyone nationally). They just haven't figured out sports media packaging.
01-16-2018 02:54 AM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #44
RE: B12 Expansion Model
(01-16-2018 02:54 AM)Stugray2 Wrote:  Actually the 4 corners State (Mountain Time) are growing extremely rapid


PHP Code:
State    1980    2000    2016
AZ        2.717    5.161    6.931
CO        2.890    4.327    5.541
UT        1.461    2.245    3.051
NM        1.303    1.821    2.081
----------    -------    -------    -------
4-Corners    8.371    13.554    17.604

AL        3.894    4.452    4.863
LA        4.206    4.472    4.682
MS        2.521    2.848    2.989
AR        2.286    2.679    2.988
----------    -------    -------    -------
Deep So    12.907    14.451    15.522

MA        5.737    6.361    6.784
CT        3.108    3.412    3.585
NH        0.921    1.240    1.335
ME        1.125    1.227    1.331
RI        0.947    1.050    1.056
VT        0.511    0.609    0.624
----------    -------    -------    -------
NE        12.349    13.899    14.815

MO        4.917    5.607    6.093
OK        3.025    3.454    3.924
IA        2.914    9.929    3.135
KS        2.364    2.694    2.907

TN        4.591    5.704    6.651    
SC        3.121    4.024    4.961
KY        3.660    4.049    4.437

IL        11.43    12.43    12.80
OH        10.80    11.36    11.61
MI        9.262    9.952    9.928
IN        5.490    6.092    6.663
WI        4.706    5.374    5.779
MN        4.076    4.934    5.552 

The States which are growing equally fast as the four corners are Texas, North Carolina, Virginia, Georgia, Oregon, Washington, Nevada (ridiculous growth), Idaho.

California is growing a bit slower, but faster than the non 4 corner states listed in the table. Florida is growing so fast it's ridiculous (where are they going to put everyone), they may pass New York and rival Texas for 2nd in a couple decades.

Basically what is growing is the West, Texas, and the Atlantic Coast from DC south. The Upper South and Deep South appear to be done with their rapid growth.

But it is amazing to see how quickly the 4 corners and also the Pacific Northwest blew past New England and the four deepest South States in just a couple decades. In two decades this will have a major electoral impact when 5 or 6 western states will be more important than all but a couple the Midwest states and all the non-coastal southern states. Heck even poor-man New Mexico in 20 years is likely to pass states like Kansas, Mississippi and Arkansas in population.

This rapid growth is why I have no long term fears about the P12 (or ACC given their core area growth). Demographics are in their favor in the long run, and in research they already dominate (most healthy schools of anyone nationally). They just haven't figured out sports media packaging.

OK, but consider this: the 8 Mountain states combined have a population of about 24 million. The New York CSA alone has about that many people.
01-16-2018 09:41 AM
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Stugray2 Offline
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Post: #45
RE: B12 Expansion Model
But at current growth rates, in another two decades the Mountain States are likely to close to 35 million and NY CSA will be maybe 27 million. Add that to the Pacific coast states which will be pushing 75 million, and you see the West top 110 million, well above 25% of the nation (which will be pushing past 390 million by 2040, 425 million by 2050 at current growth and immigration rates ... we just topped 330 million today)

You expand based on the next 20 years, not the prior 20 years. The West is far more attractive than the South or Midwest and Plains in this respect. But as I said, they haven't figured out media packaging.

That rapid growth is also part of the reason for the lag in the West with media. Fans in the region tend to carry allegiance to old schools and cities with them. It wont be until their next generation that their allegiances align more with the region. Cal suffers from the fact that the majority of college educated people in the Bay Area are not native to California. You don't see that in SEC or B1G country.
01-16-2018 01:50 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #46
RE: B12 Expansion Model
(01-16-2018 01:50 PM)Stugray2 Wrote:  But at current growth rates, in another two decades the Mountain States are likely to close to 35 million and NY CSA will be maybe 27 million. Add that to the Pacific coast states which will be pushing 75 million, and you see the West top 110 million, well above 25% of the nation (which will be pushing past 390 million by 2040, 425 million by 2050 at current growth and immigration rates ... we just topped 330 million today)

You expand based on the next 20 years, not the prior 20 years. The West is far more attractive than the South or Midwest and Plains in this respect. But as I said, they haven't figured out media packaging.

That rapid growth is also part of the reason for the lag in the West with media. Fans in the region tend to carry allegiance to old schools and cities with them. It wont be until their next generation that their allegiances align more with the region. Cal suffers from the fact that the majority of college educated people in the Bay Area are not native to California. You don't see that in SEC or B1G country.

But as you say, even counting the Pacific states, you're only looking at about 25% of the US population. That's why staying in the Central and Eastern TZs is still the smarter expansion plan.
01-16-2018 02:00 PM
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Fighting Muskie Offline
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Post: #47
RE: B12 Expansion Model
The Big 12 missed the boat on expansion into the mega conference era. What they really needed to do was land a package of 6 ACC schools with Florida St and Clemson as the centerpieces. This would have enabled the SEC and Big Ten to chip away the pieces they wanted.

NC St, VT, Miami, and Louisville would have provided some nice inventory and for the most part were schools that the SEC and Big Ten wouldn't want either because of market duplication or academics.
01-16-2018 05:55 PM
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Nerdlinger Offline
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Post: #48
RE: B12 Expansion Model
(01-16-2018 05:55 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  The Big 12 missed the boat on expansion into the mega conference era. What they really needed to do was land a package of 6 ACC schools with Florida St and Clemson as the centerpieces. This would have enabled the SEC and Big Ten to chip away the pieces they wanted.

NC St, VT, Miami, and Louisville would have provided some nice inventory and for the most part were schools that the SEC and Big Ten wouldn't want either because of market duplication or academics.

The ACC and Big 12 were the most vulnerable conferences before the "Great Realignment." The ACC was at risk of being torn apart by the Big Ten and SEC (and maybe even the Big 12, as you say), but had the Big East nearby to feed on and bolster its resistance. The Big 12's central location in the country and the relative lack of suitable expansion targets in the area had much to do with why it suffered more during that period and is still at the highest risk of collapse among the P5. Of course, it was/is also unstable, unbalanced, and small in footprint.
(This post was last modified: 01-16-2018 06:34 PM by Nerdlinger.)
01-16-2018 06:32 PM
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joeben69 Offline
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Post: #49
RE: B12 Expansion Model
Does the Big 12 Conference need BYU football to survive?
https://lawlessrepublic.com/2018/01/16/d...-football/
01-19-2018 02:22 AM
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jaredf29 Offline
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Post: #50
RE: B12 Expansion Model
(01-19-2018 02:22 AM)joeben69 Wrote:  Does the Big 12 Conference need BYU football to survive?
https://lawlessrepublic.com/2018/01/16/d...-football/

This article is ridiculous. The B12 is BYU’s only hope and it doesn’t look like that’s happening. Anyone who thinks the P12 is going to add Baylor needs to have their head examined.
01-19-2018 12:09 PM
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Post: #51
RE: B12 Expansion Model
Yeah, I saw the name of the link and didn't even bother to click on article.
01-19-2018 01:16 PM
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JHS55 Offline
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Post: #52
RE: B12 Expansion Model
If Houston gets into the b12, it won’t be because of an invite, it would be because of political pressures
01-19-2018 02:15 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #53
RE: B12 Expansion Model
(01-19-2018 02:15 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  If Houston gets into the b12, it won’t be because of an invite, it would be because of political pressures

I'm not unconvinced a redoing of the Southwest Conference isn't in the works which would be great for Houston.
01-19-2018 02:39 PM
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joeben69 Offline
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Post: #54
RE: B12 Expansion Model
(01-19-2018 02:39 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(01-19-2018 02:15 PM)JHS55 Wrote:  If Houston gets into the b12, it won’t be because of an invite, it would be because of political pressures

I'm not unconvinced a redoing of the Southwest Conference isn't in the works which would be great for Houston.

Would the new Southwest Conference be big12 based but add the remaining old swc members not currently in a p5 conference?

big 12 + smu + houston = swc 12 (p5)
swc 12 + rice + byu (fb only) = swc 14 (p5)

this scenario would be favorable to tx since it would add most of the old swc members (circa 1996)...appeal to (tx) political pressures...& give tx a voting bloc in the big 12...which is what tx wants...
(This post was last modified: 01-20-2018 12:22 AM by joeben69.)
01-20-2018 12:16 AM
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joeben69 Offline
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Post: #55
RE: B12 Expansion Model
Big 12 commissioner tells local politician, thanks but no thanks on adding UCF and USF
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/uc...story.html
01-31-2018 12:31 PM
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BadgerMJ Offline
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Post: #56
RE: B12 Expansion Model
(01-31-2018 12:31 PM)joeben69 Wrote:  Big 12 commissioner tells local politician, thanks but no thanks on adding UCF and USF
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/uc...story.html

Oops....

Maybe not quite as "valuable" or important as thought by some.

Let the weeping and gnashing of teeth begin in 3, 2, 1......
01-31-2018 12:44 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #57
RE: B12 Expansion Model
(01-31-2018 12:31 PM)joeben69 Wrote:  Big 12 commissioner tells local politician, thanks but no thanks on adding UCF and USF
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/uc...story.html

Ouch. I think the duo would be a good addition. It would be another island. If you're not Texas and Oklahoma, you have to at least consider life after the Longhorns and Sooners leave. Central Florida, South Florida, Cincinnati, Memphis, and SMU aren't bad options.
01-31-2018 12:53 PM
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Post: #58
RE: B12 Expansion Model
(01-31-2018 12:53 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(01-31-2018 12:31 PM)joeben69 Wrote:  Big 12 commissioner tells local politician, thanks but no thanks on adding UCF and USF
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/uc...story.html

Ouch. I think the duo would be a good addition. It would be another island. If you're not Texas and Oklahoma, you have to at least consider life after the Longhorns and Sooners leave. Central Florida, South Florida, Cincinnati, Memphis, and SMU aren't bad options.

Best case scenario for castoffs would be inviting some of the programs while the Big 12 isn't being torn apart to build their brands and then reforging a new Big 12 after the music stops.

My hope for the Bears outside of the Big 12s continued existence is a best of the rest conference with something along the lines of:

BYU
Boise State
Colorado State
Baylor
SMU
Houston
New Mexico

Kansas State
Memphis
Cincy
UConn
Tulane
UCF
USF

You could always swap a team here or there or maybe even grow to 16 with UNLV/UNR/Air Force/Navy/SDSU, etc. Attempts at a "best of the rest" have failed in the past, but the Big 12 central location would help with that a bit.
01-31-2018 02:05 PM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #59
RE: B12 Expansion Model
(01-31-2018 02:05 PM)Baylorbears11 Wrote:  
(01-31-2018 12:53 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(01-31-2018 12:31 PM)joeben69 Wrote:  Big 12 commissioner tells local politician, thanks but no thanks on adding UCF and USF
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/uc...story.html

Ouch. I think the duo would be a good addition. It would be another island. If you're not Texas and Oklahoma, you have to at least consider life after the Longhorns and Sooners leave. Central Florida, South Florida, Cincinnati, Memphis, and SMU aren't bad options.

Best case scenario for castoffs would be inviting some of the programs while the Big 12 isn't being torn apart to build their brands and then reforging a new Big 12 after the music stops.

My hope for the Bears outside of the Big 12s continued existence is a best of the rest conference with something along the lines of:

BYU
Boise State
Colorado State
Baylor
SMU
Houston
New Mexico

Kansas State
Memphis
Cincy
UConn
Tulane
UCF
USF

You could always swap a team here or there or maybe even grow to 16 with UNLV/UNR/Air Force/Navy/SDSU, etc. Attempts at a "best of the rest" have failed in the past, but the Big 12 central location would help with that a bit.

I like this idea, obviously. But I'd do this:

West: San Diego St, BYU, Boise St, Colorado St, New Mexico, Kansas St, Iowa St
East: SMU, Baylor, Houston, Memphis, Cincinnati, Central Florida, South Florida

This is presuming Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma St, Kansas, West Virginia, and TCU all find homes elsewhere.
01-31-2018 05:52 PM
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colohank Offline
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Post: #60
RE: B12 Expansion Model
(01-31-2018 02:05 PM)Baylorbears11 Wrote:  
(01-31-2018 12:53 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(01-31-2018 12:31 PM)joeben69 Wrote:  Big 12 commissioner tells local politician, thanks but no thanks on adding UCF and USF
http://www.orlandosentinel.com/sports/uc...story.html

Ouch. I think the duo would be a good addition. It would be another island. If you're not Texas and Oklahoma, you have to at least consider life after the Longhorns and Sooners leave. Central Florida, South Florida, Cincinnati, Memphis, and SMU aren't bad options.


My hope for the Bears outside of the Big 12s continued existence is a best of the rest conference with something along the lines of:

BYU
Boise State
Colorado State
Baylor
SMU
Houston
New Mexico

Kansas State
MemphisBest case scenario for castoffs would be inviting some of the programs while the Big 12 isn't being torn apart to build their brands and then reforging a new Big 12 after the music stops.

Cincy
UConn
Tulane
UCF
USF

You could always swap a team here or there or maybe even grow to 16 with UNLV/UNR/Air Force/Navy/SDSU, etc. Attempts at a "best of the rest" have failed in the past, but the Big 12 central location would help with that a bit.

That was the rationale that motivated the Big XII's ill-fated effort to expand last year. If they try it again, it'll just make them look even sillier and more desperate. It also left a bad taste in a lot of mouths. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.
01-31-2018 09:53 PM
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