(09-13-2018 08:47 PM)WoodlandsOwl Wrote:  

(09-10-2018 01:57 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(09-10-2018 01:25 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  O'Rourke's biggest problem now is that many Texans still don't have a good grasp of what he's about, albeit that number is shrinking weekly.

Umm, I think that's more likely his biggest positive. When Texans find out what he is really about, I don't think nearly as many will support him.

I seem to recall this similar "Buzz" about Wendy Davis when she ran against Abbott. "High Poll Numbers" "Well Funded" "Bi-Partisan" "The Real Deal" etc. And when it came down to the issues Abbott won in an a landslide.

She got buzz, but I don't recall that Davis polled close to Abbott or ever got much above 40%. Her campaign was an outsourced disaster from beginning to end. Abbott's capitulation to Patrick is a disappointment, but he's a good campaigner.

The Beto campaign is impressive - except the incessant text messages. He choose his opponent well. Looking forward to the Willie concert spectacle.

Remember when Sanchez spent circa $65 million to Perry's less than $30? And lost by more than 15 points.

I saw my first Ted Cruz yard sign today. Predictably it's red, white & blue. I kind of like Beto's simple black and white ones. I don't think the color scheme of a sign is proof one candidate is more patriotic than another.

(09-13-2018 10:08 PM)ausowl Wrote:  

(09-13-2018 08:47 PM)WoodlandsOwl Wrote:  

(09-10-2018 01:57 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(09-10-2018 01:25 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  O'Rourke's biggest problem now is that many Texans still don't have a good grasp of what he's about, albeit that number is shrinking weekly.

Umm, I think that's more likely his biggest positive. When Texans find out what he is really about, I don't think nearly as many will support him.

I seem to recall this similar "Buzz" about Wendy Davis when she ran against Abbott. "High Poll Numbers" "Well Funded" "Bi-Partisan" "The Real Deal" etc. And when it came down to the issues Abbott won in an a landslide.

She got buzz, but I don't recall that Davis polled close to Abbott or ever got much above 40%. Her campaign was an outsourced disaster from beginning to end. Abbott's capitulation to Patrick is a disappointment, but he's a good campaigner.

The Beto campaign is impressive - except the incessant text messages. He choose his opponent well. Looking forward to the Willie concert spectacle.

Remember when Sanchez spent circa $65 million to Perry's less than $30? And lost by more than 15 points.

I remember the war between Dan Morales and Sanchez when Dan Morales' brother tried to extort Sanchez and ended up going to jail.

(09-13-2018 10:12 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I saw my first Ted Cruz yard sign today. Predictably it's red, white & blue. I kind of like Beto's simple black and white ones. I don't think the color scheme of a sign is proof one candidate is more patriotic than another.

When it comes to colors, it still bugs me that our media knuckleheads in 2000 almost single-handedly managed to reverse a century or so of political color tradition and get a-historical Americans (unlike the rest of the world) to start denoting the left as "blue" and the right as "red". Ass-backwards! Everyone knows that red is the historic color of radicals and revolutionaries, and blue is the color of traditionalists and loyalists. (The British have this down: the Labour Party's song is "The Red Flag".)

But evidently few people in the late 20th century mass media knew much about history. No wonder they're not trusted!

(09-14-2018 09:10 AM)georgewebb Wrote:  

(09-13-2018 10:12 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  I saw my first Ted Cruz yard sign today. Predictably it's red, white & blue. I kind of like Beto's simple black and white ones. I don't think the color scheme of a sign is proof one candidate is more patriotic than another.

When it comes to colors, it still bugs me that our media knuckleheads in 2000 almost single-handedly managed to reverse a century or so of political color tradition and get a-historical Americans (unlike the rest of the world) to start denoting the left as "blue" and the right as "red". Ass-backwards! Everyone knows that red is the historic color of radicals and revolutionaries, and blue is the color of traditionalists and loyalists. (The British have this down: the Labour Party's song is "The Red Flag".)

But evidently few people in the late 20th century mass media knew much about history. No wonder they're not trusted!

Agree, 100%.

As for Davis, maybe she would have done better if she had listed herself as "Wendita".

Judging from the yard signs and stickers, Beto is going to get 100% of the vote.

I have a cousin named Roberto. We don't call him Beto. He goes by Bobby.

I wonder how Bobby O'Rourke would be doing in the polls.

No importa. Cruz is running against Beto.

(09-16-2018 05:28 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Judging from the yard signs and stickers, Beto is going to get 100% of the vote.

I have a cousin named Roberto. We don't call him Beto. He goes by Bobby.

I wonder how Bobby O'Rourke would be doing in the polls.

No importa. Cruz is running against Beto.

Robert Francis O'Rourke, is a forth generation Irish American. Maybe "Roibeard" is too big to fit on a sign?

I could care less what he names himself. What are the odds he will do even a single debate? My guess is just south of NFW.

(09-16-2018 08:21 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  I could care less what he names himself. What are the odds he will do even a single debate? My guess is just south of NFW.

Are you implying that O'Rourke isn't going to show up to the debates that were agreed upon a few days ago?

(09-16-2018 06:47 PM)WoodlandsOwl Wrote:  Robert Francis O'Rourke, is a forth generation Irish American.

Which reminds me of a bit of historical trivia: one of the first Spanish colonial governors of Louisiana was Alexander O'Reilly, known locally as "Bloody O'Reilly" for suppressing the short-lived French Creole rebellion of 1768 and executing several of its ringleaders. The Creoles resented France's recent handover of Louisiana to Spain. O'Reilly cemented Spanish rule, and in fact the Spanish generally proved more effective administrators than the French had been, and certainly more effective in encouraging immigration. The colony of Louisiana and the city of New Orleans boomed under Spanish control.

Also, most of the distinctive architecture of the French Quarter is actually Spanish in character, dating from the period of Spanish rule.

(09-16-2018 08:59 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  

(09-16-2018 08:21 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  I could care less what he names himself. What are the odds he will do even a single debate? My guess is just south of NFW.

Are you implying that O'Rourke isn't going to show up to the debates that were agreed upon a few days ago?

He blew off the others that were agreed to earlier. Just saying......

Some people you should never expect a deal to close with until the funds get wired into the account.

(09-16-2018 10:30 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  

(09-16-2018 08:59 PM)westsidewolf1989 Wrote:  

(09-16-2018 08:21 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  I could care less what he names himself. What are the odds he will do even a single debate? My guess is just south of NFW.

Are you implying that O'Rourke isn't going to show up to the debates that were agreed upon a few days ago?

He blew off the others that were agreed to earlier. Just saying......

Some people you should never expect a deal to close with until the funds get wired into the account.

They weren't agreed to. Cruz offered up a schedule of five debates to which Beto responded, “I am encouraged that Sen. Cruz has decided that he’s ready to debate the issues,” O’Rourke said in response. “Our campaign looks forward to working with his campaign to finalize mutually agreed upon details.”

In your definition of "agreed to", that would mean Cruz backed out of the "agreed to" six debates that Beto proposed in April, which, of course, is also a false statement, considering that Cruz never actually agreed to those set of six, much like Beto never agreed to Cruz's five.

In a survey of likely voters, Cruz is now up nine percentage points over O'Rourke. Earlier iterations of this poll surveyed registered voters.

https://www.texasmonthly.com/politics/te...o-orourke/

I'm surprised to see how positive O'Rourke's TV ads are - virtually none of the vicious attacks of your opponents that you pretty much see from all the high profile political races these days. It will be interesting to see if any of the mud-slinging comes out in the debates.

I'll make a prediction that if he ends up within 5 points of Cruz (and loses), he'll end up on another high profile ballot in 2020. If nothing else, he'll be on the short list for a VP choice for the Democratic presidential candidate.

He has great smile and fine personality; if that is the criteria for being VP material in one party so be it.

I think I would laugh at a 3-term backbench congressman being feted with that...... Especially from a party that kind of viciously attacked the ex-mayor of Visilla for being so woefully unprepared for the post.... hmmm..... but that party did nominate for President a guy whose major life achievements to that point were being a community organizer and political pals of the ex-Weathercritters Christine Dohrn and Bill Ayers.

If Robert loses, he is toast. His only base is El Paso. Cute smile and a cute tushie only get you so far in politics. Doesnt weigh well against a losing statewide campaign.

Kind of really hard for Robert to bootstrap out of a loss here to any 'high profile' in 2020. Nobody likes an immediate loser. Not even Democrats, and not even Flo when she says "Sprinkles are for winners." Maybe 2028 after he graduates out of El Paso County Judge, El Paso mayor, or Texas State Senate. None of those is a good political career stepping stone in Texas or in national politics.

Edited to add: Flipping my stance on whether the debates actually happen. After Quinnipiac Robert needs the debates far more than 3 weeks ago when he thought he was in a tie or leading.

As for mud-slinging in the debates -- I'd take that one to the bank. Theodore will revert at the end to his usual biting edge creepy snarkiness. Not overt slinging, just jabs of a stilleto. Robert will be hard pressed not to go the negative route -- he needs not just to gain votes but to create alienation at this stage. One more +5 or better poll for Theodore and it almost has to happen.

If it doesnt, then I will give serious kudos to Robert for taking a loss in great way. Seriously, no snark intended in that preceding sentence.

I find it a little funny that Tanq used Betos full given name, yet extends the nickname given to Cruz instead of using his full given name, Rafael. Cruz’s middle name is Edward, not Theodore, btw. That does go hand in hand with the humor in a white guy using a Hispanic nickname and a half-Hispanic guy using a white nickname.

I was going out of my way not to use 'Ted', which *is* the nickname mind you. Thought his middle was Theodore. I guess next time I'll use Rafael to make you happy....

And, as we have spoken before, I am perfectly comfortable using Robert's name the way I have known it for a long, long, long, long time. But I guess that is par for the course with a scumbag blowhard.

Anyone watching the debate tomorrow? Rafael v. Robert v. Friday night lights

The Flores win Tuesday no bueno for Beto. The Demo get out the vote operation exposed (evergreen comment).

The Flores R win in a Hillary +12 was pretty eye opening.

I'll be looking at the debate. I dont expect to glean very much --- both candidates are using the typical 'vote pablum' that has no bearing on the real world and I have never seen anything different in any other debate.

By 'vote pablum', I am very happy to know that Robert wishes to have term limits; very laudable goal. Unfortunately there is nothing to be done about it *except* amend the Constitution. Or, I guess, a Senator could indirectly advance that result by voting for a Living Constitution philosophy justice who thinks it is outdated.

And to be honest the Rafael campaign (happy now Lad?) engages in the same unicorns/fairy dust issue framing as Robert's campaign does.

The interesting thing to watch will be the contrast between Mr Cute Smiley Face Backbencher and Creepy Ted.

(09-20-2018 10:56 AM)tanqtonic Wrote:  And to be honest the Rafael campaign (happy now Lad?) engages in the same unicorns/fairy dust issue framing as Robert's campaign does.

Agreed. The campaigning in the media so far has been strange, to say the least. Beto seems to want to speak in 90+% vague generalities and "feel-good" messages/plans (not unlike a Texan version of a 2008 Obama), while Cruz seems insistent on making bizarre comments that all have food in them: Beto is either a triple meat Whataburger (excellent choice for a meal, IMO) liberal, advancing the cause of tofu (poor choice for a meal, IMO) or banning bbq (also an excellent choice for a meal). I think Ted is just really damn hungry and O'Rourke has watched too many 2008 Obama videos.