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LongtimeFan Offline
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Pomeroy Update
MAC Pomeroy rankings through games of Wednesday, Jan. 3:

106 Ball State
120 Buffalo
152 Toledo
155 Central Michigan
162 Eastern Michigan
172 Ohio
175 Western Michigan
231 Akron
232 Northern Illinois
243 Bowling Green
245 Kent State
261 Miami
01-04-2018 03:33 PM
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Love and Honor Offline
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RE: Pomeroy Update
Interestingly enough Miami's RPI is second in the MAC (86th, UB is 45). One must keep in mind however that RPI doesn't deduct our SOS for two NAIA home games or factor in the margin of victory/defeat, as we've been blown out in most of our losses while winning a lot of close games. I think we're somewhere in the middle in terms of actual team strength, probably in the mid to upper hundreds.
01-04-2018 05:40 PM
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RE: Pomeroy Update
Miami has moved up a lot in the past two weeks. They had been in the
low 300s. Central Michigan has made a nice move up also. Ball State and Buffalo keep moving toward the top 100. Their game Saturday in Muncie could possibly vault one or the other over.
01-04-2018 06:27 PM
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bobcat_backer Offline
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RE: Pomeroy Update
Miami at the bottom...hmmm...seems right to me!
01-04-2018 09:38 PM
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NIU007 Offline
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RE: Pomeroy Update
We're not last! 02-13-banana
01-05-2018 09:34 AM
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uakronkid Offline
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RE: Pomeroy Update
No teams below 300 is a great sign. The MAC may not have any standout teams this season, but there are no anchors to drag us down.
01-05-2018 09:59 AM
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eich41 Offline
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RE: Pomeroy Update
(01-05-2018 09:59 AM)uakronkid Wrote:  No teams below 300 is a great sign. The MAC may not have any standout teams this season, but there are no anchors to drag us down.

In theory that's good, but if that's the case, we're just looking at teams beating each other up, and another one bid, 14 seed team in the tourney. It's called parity when it occurs in a Major conference, it's called mediocrity in the MAC.
01-05-2018 10:15 AM
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uakronkid Offline
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RE: Pomeroy Update
(01-05-2018 10:15 AM)eich41 Wrote:  In theory that's good, but if that's the case, we're just looking at teams beating each other up, and another one bid, 14 seed team in the tourney. It's called parity when it occurs in a Major conference, it's called mediocrity in the MAC.

Not having terrible teams is the first step to having a good conference. Having one or two teams step up and get a top-40 RPI and 25+ wins is the second step. If we sustain this, then we're improving the conference the right way instead of having on good team and hoping that they lose in the conference final to a bad team (and thus hurting their seeding), which relies on luck and doesn't do anything to raise the conference profile.
01-05-2018 12:37 PM
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george14 Offline
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RE: Pomeroy Update
(01-05-2018 10:15 AM)eich41 Wrote:  In theory that's good, but if that's the case, we're just looking at teams beating each other up, and another one bid, 14 seed team in the tourney. It's called parity when it occurs in a Major conference, it's called mediocrity in the MAC.

Well yeah, because the MAC is significantly weaker than the top conferences. The MAC is a solid basketball conference but we don't play enough good teams routinely to call it parity. At least parity in the positive sense. Look at CMU for instance, our OOC was pathetic. We have a good record and I hope we can continue to win, but there are no favors when we have a SOS in the 300's.
01-05-2018 12:57 PM
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eich41 Offline
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RE: Pomeroy Update
(01-05-2018 12:37 PM)uakronkid Wrote:  
(01-05-2018 10:15 AM)eich41 Wrote:  In theory that's good, but if that's the case, we're just looking at teams beating each other up, and another one bid, 14 seed team in the tourney. It's called parity when it occurs in a Major conference, it's called mediocrity in the MAC.

Not having terrible teams is the first step to having a good conference. Having one or two teams step up and get a top-40 RPI and 25+ wins is the second step. If we sustain this, then we're improving the conference the right way instead of having on good team and hoping that they lose in the conference final to a bad team (and thus hurting their seeding), which relies on luck and doesn't do anything to raise the conference profile.

It helps to not have bottom feeders dragging down the various ratings of the better teams in the conference. However, my point is that the MAC is better off having 2-3 teams that drastically standout with cellar dwellers for the remainder of the conference, than to have parity with everyone somewhere between 100-250 with most teams somewhere around .500 in conference play. Take the WCC for example. Most people consider it to be a solid basketball conference, but the reality is it's essentially Gonzaga, St Mary's, and cannon fodder. They have 10 teams and two of them are in the 300s and two more are knocking on the door.

For the MAC to gain some traction it's more important to have a couple of strong teams to hang their hat on rather than trying to point to the strength of the conference from top to bottom. Obviously not having anchors dragging down the SOS can help with that, but it would be more beneficial to have the top separate from the pack than it is to have the tail of the pack catch up.
01-05-2018 02:38 PM
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eich41 Offline
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RE: Pomeroy Update
(01-05-2018 12:57 PM)george14 Wrote:  
(01-05-2018 10:15 AM)eich41 Wrote:  In theory that's good, but if that's the case, we're just looking at teams beating each other up, and another one bid, 14 seed team in the tourney. It's called parity when it occurs in a Major conference, it's called mediocrity in the MAC.

Well yeah, because the MAC is significantly weaker than the top conferences. The MAC is a solid basketball conference but we don't play enough good teams routinely to call it parity. At least parity in the positive sense. Look at CMU for instance, our OOC was pathetic. We have a good record and I hope we can continue to win, but there are no favors when we have a SOS in the 300's.

You're missing the point. The MAC is better off having one or two top 50-75 teams that can make a run in the tourney, regardless of how bad the rest of the conference is, rather than having all twelve teams rated 110-122, and everyone just beats up on each other. See my reference to the WCC above. It's generally considered to be a good basketball conference, but it's all driven by Gonzaga and St. Mary's. Occasionally BYU will field a decent team. Outside of that, it's trash.

Here is where the MAC has ranked according to RPI the last 4 years:

2013-14 - 12th
2014-15 - 10th
2015-16 - 10th
2016-17 - 14th

Outside of last year, we've actually been pretty solid as a conference (ahead of multi-bid leagues), but it hasn't shown in our perception or seeding in the tournament. We're much better off having 2-3 teams head and shoulders above everyone else who can put together a great record than we are to have a big group of solid teams beating each other all year.

The best case for the MAC right now is for Ball State to run the table. To a lesser extent, it'd be good to have Buffalo/CMU run the table outside of BSU games. Buffalo has a solid RPI due to playing a solid OOC schedule, problem is (for the sake of this discussion) that they didn't win any of the games against the good teams they played, so BSU would benefit the MAC more with the win over ND . I threw CMU in there only because of the current RPI and the ability to put up a gaudy W-L record (in theory). Obviously I'm basing this solely on ratings/resume/record right now, not trying to handicap who the best team is 1 game into the MAC season.
(This post was last modified: 01-05-2018 03:11 PM by eich41.)
01-05-2018 02:49 PM
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Love and Honor Offline
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Post: #12
RE: Pomeroy Update
The MAC has been around a long time. If we were capable of bringing up the bottom of the conference high enough to where our conference championship game loser would routinely get an at-large bid (or even get in the bubble discussion) despite not having a gleaming individual resume, we probably would've seen it already. Bringing up the bottom would be a decent first step towards improving our seeding since it makes our champ slightly less dependent on a great non-conference schedule to do so, but no one is gonna move the MAC champ from 14 to 12 if you improved our four worst teams by fifty points in March.

We've only gotten an at-large team five times in our history: 84-85 Miami (20-10 on Selection Sunday, beat Purdue, Dayton, Arizona State), 85-86 Miami (24-6, beat Dayton, Xavier, UC, Virginia Tech), 94-95 Miami (22-6, beat Dayton), 97-98 WMU (20-7, beat Michigan), and 98-99 Miami (22-7, beat Notre Dame, Tennessee, Dayton). That tells me that if you're in the MAC you need one signature win at the bare minimum, and more likely than not need a few others and/or less than eight losses. 26-8 with a bunch of lackluster OOC wins like Akron last year isn't going to earn you much consideration.

It also may say that unless you were Miami in the mid eighties to late nineties your chances of developing a program strong enough to get an at-large bid are slim to none. In the days where Millett was full and basketball fandom in Oxford was real, it could be that Miami was the only program in MAC history capable of breaking through the barrier by making good hires who could leverage our academics and campus to get teams that could pick up big OOC wins and earn bids if they lost the MACC. Those days are long gone for us, and in nearly twenty years no one has filled the void. Given how many of our schools fight for limited resources and recruits in the same geographic footprint, the only one I could see making a serious run in the future is maybe UB.
01-05-2018 06:55 PM
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Old School Flash Offline
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Post: #13
RE: Pomeroy Update
I've watched MAC basketball for over 40 years. The quality of play is probably about as bad as I've ever seen. I watched Kent vs CMU last night. Was intrigued with CMU's 12-2 record. A mediocre Kent team handled them pretty easily. This morning I looked at CMU's schedule and just what I thought. Not a quality win among the 12.

I think most of the league needs to schedule tougher teams and then they've gotta win a third of these games. That will get attention. Not loading up on cup cakes...
01-07-2018 09:28 AM
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RE: Pomeroy Update
(01-07-2018 09:28 AM)Old School Flash Wrote:  I've watched MAC basketball for over 40 years. The quality of play is probably about as bad as I've ever seen. I watched Kent vs CMU last night. Was intrigued with CMU's 12-2 record. A mediocre Kent team handled them pretty easily. This morning I looked at CMU's schedule and just what I thought. Not a quality win among the 12.

I think most of the league needs to schedule tougher teams and then they've gotta win a third of these games. That will get attention. Not loading up on cup cakes...

So they need to play Buffalo’s schedule is what you are saying?
01-07-2018 10:06 AM
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RE: Pomeroy Update
(01-07-2018 10:06 AM)BullBoy Wrote:  
(01-07-2018 09:28 AM)Old School Flash Wrote:  I've watched MAC basketball for over 40 years. The quality of play is probably about as bad as I've ever seen. I watched Kent vs CMU last night. Was intrigued with CMU's 12-2 record. A mediocre Kent team handled them pretty easily. This morning I looked at CMU's schedule and just what I thought. Not a quality win among the 12.

I think most of the league needs to schedule tougher teams and then they've gotta win a third of these games. That will get attention. Not loading up on cup cakes...

So they need to play Buffalo’s schedule is what you are saying?

Yes...Cinti, Syracuse and Tx A&M are tough teams but if you upset one of them that's huge! There's no downside. Can't play every game against these teams though. There's a balance...
01-07-2018 10:18 AM
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Post: #16
RE: Pomeroy Update
Scheduling is not all that important until the quality of play improves. Right now, the MAC just isn’t very good compared to the better mid-major teams. If you don’t beat at least a couple of the top 50 teams on your non-conference schedule, you’ve gained very little except “experience,” whatever that’s worth.

In any year, you want to schedule the best teams you have a decent chance of beating. Then you have to beat them. If you don’t do both, it’s kind of irrelevant how you scheduled.
01-07-2018 11:53 AM
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NIU007 Offline
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RE: Pomeroy Update
I can't complain much about this year's NIU schedule. We had Iowa, Iowa State, and Marquette, which would have been decent wins if we had been good enough. No really good teams on the schedule, but we wouldn't have had a chance against them anyway. And we only had a couple lower division teams instead of 4 like last year.

Just haven't been quite good enough yet.
01-08-2018 11:37 AM
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george14 Offline
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RE: Pomeroy Update
(01-07-2018 09:28 AM)Old School Flash Wrote:  I've watched MAC basketball for over 40 years. The quality of play is probably about as bad as I've ever seen. I watched Kent vs CMU last night. Was intrigued with CMU's 12-2 record. A mediocre Kent team handled them pretty easily. This morning I looked at CMU's schedule and just what I thought. Not a quality win among the 12.

I think most of the league needs to schedule tougher teams and then they've gotta win a third of these games. That will get attention. Not loading up on cup cakes...

Believe it or not, BG/EMU/Akron/NIU all have worse SOS as of today than CMU.
01-08-2018 12:21 PM
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eich41 Offline
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RE: Pomeroy Update
(01-07-2018 11:53 AM)axeme Wrote:  Scheduling is not all that important until the quality of play improves. Right now, the MAC just isn’t very good compared to the better mid-major teams. If you don’t beat at least a couple of the top 50 teams on your non-conference schedule, you’ve gained very little except “experience,” whatever that’s worth.

In any year, you want to schedule the best teams you have a decent chance of beating. Then you have to beat them. If you don’t do both, it’s kind of irrelevant how you scheduled.

That's about it in a nutshell. CMU played a weak OOC schedule (although as pointed out above, there were several weaker schedules in the MAC). At the end of the day, they had one bad loss to Southern Utah, and they played Michigan tough (led 3/4 of the game). They took care of business against everyone else. Ideally, they would have had another top 100 team and swapped out some of the non-DI teams for some more 100-150 types.

As you pointed out, what good does it do to schedule a bunch of top 25 teams unless you beat them? You can argue that it makes teams "better" but I don't think Toledo learned much from their beat down in Lawrence. It's good for teams to play close competitive games so they're in a better position to handle those games down the stretch of the season when it matters most. For most teams in the MAC that doesn't mean playing top 50 teams at this time. Look at UB, they played 5 top 100 RPI teams and went 0-5 with only one game being a single digit game. That's not to take anything away from UB, who at this point is likely the best team in the MAC. However, the bottom line is you will always be better off winning a game against a team ranked 150 than you are to lose a game to a team ranked #15.
01-08-2018 01:16 PM
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eich41 Offline
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RE: Pomeroy Update
(01-07-2018 09:28 AM)Old School Flash Wrote:  I've watched MAC basketball for over 40 years. The quality of play is probably about as bad as I've ever seen. I watched Kent vs CMU last night. Was intrigued with CMU's 12-2 record. A mediocre Kent team handled them pretty easily. This morning I looked at CMU's schedule and just what I thought. Not a quality win among the 12.

I think most of the league needs to schedule tougher teams and then they've gotta win a third of these games. That will get attention. Not loading up on cup cakes...

CMU had a weak OOC schedule. The only top 100 team they played was Michigan (CMU led the whole game until about 5 minutes to go), but they still took care of business in every game except UM and Southern Utah. That also including winning the Great Alaska Shootout, in a field that included Idaho who waxed WMU in Kalamazoo by 30. At the end of the day, CMU is probably a 100-150 type of team. What good would it have done them to schedule 8 top 50 teams only to lose to all of them? They could have definitely had a more challenging schedule, but it also doesn't make any sense to go get clobbered a dozen times just to say you played a tough OOC schedule.
01-08-2018 01:26 PM
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