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Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
(01-05-2018 08:23 PM)OdinFrigg Wrote:  OK, trying not to get into conspiracy theory here, and am not trying to advocate the B12's demise; but assuming such is a possibility, some of the below could become the result:

SEC takes OU and oSu as both an offensive and defensive move. It cuts the B12 in half, and limits BIG and PAC options.

Texas become mutually unrealistic for the BIG. Still, the BIG could add footprint-established AAU schools in ISU and Kansas. The two aren't fb powerhouses and not much of market additions. Still, basic compatibility and convenience are strong.

The ACC takes WVU (or UConn, maybe Cincy). No need for details, other than Notre Dame committing for full-time fb is the prime goal.

The PAC takes Texas, TTU, Kansas State and another (TCU? Rice? UNM?).

If ESPN, P4, etc., really want 4 @ 16 for $$$$s, playoffs, etc.; then something such as the above could develop in several years.

I see others here have advanced similar models and rationale, but don't want to be redundant. That could suggest the "deciders" would be thinking about it.as well in determining what to do when major expansion/realignment rears up again.

That's all possible, sort of. ESPN holds the LHN until 2031. They may have a say in where Texas heads. And whether or not the PAC wants ESPN to handle their network might play a part as well. Unless something to the positive happens there the money won't be right for the move.

And I'm not sold that 16 is any kind of ceiling or magic number. Mike Slive once said the size of a conference is only limited by its profitability.

But as far as the strategic move is concerned offering both Oklahoma's does cut off quite a few options for everyone else.
01-05-2018 08:54 PM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
So OU is in a league where it plays its two rivals every year in football, home and home in basketball; has a top 10 recruiting class in football; and has been in the CFP two out of three years.

Leaving the revenue debate specifics alone, at this point feel like the threshold for leaving is higher than it was a few years ago.
01-05-2018 09:38 PM
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bluesox Offline
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Post: #43
RE: Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
If the sec landed Ou and ok state to get to 16, Texas would have a tough decision. Any of these options work out fine for Texas :

1) acc full with ND or partial with nd deal
2) big 10 with Kansas
3) sec with Texas tech, Kansas , or Tulane to get to 18
4) pac with Texas tech, tcu, Houston
(This post was last modified: 01-05-2018 10:28 PM by bluesox.)
01-05-2018 10:26 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #44
RE: Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
(01-05-2018 09:38 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  So OU is in a league where it plays its two rivals every year in football, home and home in basketball; has a top 10 recruiting class in football; and has been in the CFP two out of three years.

Leaving the revenue debate specifics alone, at this point feel like the threshold for leaving is higher than it was a few years ago.

It is. And it will stay that way until it isn't. That will probably be around 2023, unless another GOR is signed and right now that's what doesn't seem likely.
01-05-2018 10:37 PM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
(01-05-2018 10:37 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-05-2018 09:38 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  So OU is in a league where it plays its two rivals every year in football, home and home in basketball; has a top 10 recruiting class in football; and has been in the CFP two out of three years.

Leaving the revenue debate specifics alone, at this point feel like the threshold for leaving is higher than it was a few years ago.

It is. And it will stay that way until it isn't. That will probably be around 2023, unless another GOR is signed and right now that's what doesn't seem likely.

GOR or no GOR- does I really matter? If you are OU (or UT) does the door close...ever? There are no other options for the Big 10 or SEC. Any of the other Big 12 teams and...meh. If it is working for you...

Could be the biggest risk for leaving is not OU or UT, it is KU. The question in this thread might be better said- who is the best partner for KU other than OU or UT?
01-05-2018 10:49 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
(01-05-2018 10:26 PM)bluesox Wrote:  If the sec landed Ou and ok state to get to 16, Texas would have a tough decision. Any of these options work out fine for Texas :

1) acc full with ND or partial with nd deal
2) big 10 with Kansas
3) sec with Texas tech, Kansas , or Tulane to get to 18
4) pac with Texas tech, tcu, Houston

Option #1 is a logistical nightmare and they have no common history with the ACC where they would have to schedule 5 games with an N.D. deal.

Option #2 would be very difficult because Texas has no history there and it would be for full membership and they would only have 1 OOC game, maybe 2 with which to schedule Oklahoma and another Texas school. And the travel with only Kansas close by would be horrible for them. And then there is the fallout back home when their fans have to do the traveling to play teams they do not historically care about. And baseball and softball would suffer.

Option #3 would not feature Tulane. They were in the SEC and they don't bring enough to the table to get back in. Kansas would be lovely, but it would probably be Tech.

Option #4 would be open and taking three friends would help. But the money isn't there right now and the minor sports would suffer and the travel would cost them a tidy sum.

Option #5 is to stay put and dig in like a tick, but if OU goes that makes even that angle tough.
(This post was last modified: 01-05-2018 10:53 PM by JRsec.)
01-05-2018 10:51 PM
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templefootballfan Offline
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Post: #47
RE: Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
SEC is not taking Okla much less OSU
who they moving east, Auburn or Auburn & Ala with Missouri moving west.
Va & NC are 1st on the list
SEC might be better off with VT & WV
maybe with Hous & Mia or [UCF is certainly moving into the picture]
01-05-2018 11:14 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
(01-05-2018 10:49 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  
(01-05-2018 10:37 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-05-2018 09:38 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  So OU is in a league where it plays its two rivals every year in football, home and home in basketball; has a top 10 recruiting class in football; and has been in the CFP two out of three years.

Leaving the revenue debate specifics alone, at this point feel like the threshold for leaving is higher than it was a few years ago.

It is. And it will stay that way until it isn't. That will probably be around 2023, unless another GOR is signed and right now that's what doesn't seem likely.

GOR or no GOR- does I really matter? If you are OU (or UT) does the door close...ever? There are no other options for the Big 10 or SEC. Any of the other Big 12 teams and...meh. If it is working for you...

Could be the biggest risk for leaving is not OU or UT, it is KU. The question in this thread might be better said- who is the best partner for KU other than OU or UT?

It doesn't matter. If Oklahoma or Kansas leaves it becomes just that more untenable.
01-05-2018 11:21 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
(01-05-2018 11:14 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  SEC is not taking Okla much less OSU
who they moving east, Auburn or Auburn & Ala with Missouri moving west.
Va & NC are 1st on the list
SEC might be better off with VT & WV
maybe with Hous & Mia or [UCF is certainly moving into the picture]

And you know this how? In '91 when the discussions were held the path was clear. We looked West, not East. Our targets were Texas, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Florida State (who was independent) and looked East to one school (Clemson). There was a silent partner at the time for Texas (Oklahoma). Texas looked to the PAC, A&M couldn't shake free from Texas politics (there was a Baylor problem) Arkansas joined. ESPN didn't wan't the SEC to have total leverage over the state of Florida so the ACC (fully apprised of our offer which was looked over by a certain network) made their offer (a better one) the day before we showed up to make ours. Bobby Bowden cited an easier path to the playoffs as his reason and the rest is history. Some think Clemson only showed interest to spy, but either way a Clemson trustee told a South Carolina trustee we were looking so they applied and were accepted.

Here we are 25 years later and Arkansas is in. South Carolina took Clemson's slot. Missouri took Florida State's slot, and A&M is now in the SEC.

Who does that leave? Texas and Oklahoma.

As long as the SEC and ACC both have contracts with ESPN the SEC won't be taking an ACC school. So we continue to look West to the two best brands remaining on the table.

For the SEC to take ACC schools it would have to be after the Big 10 raided them and then we would be encouraged by ESPN to hold onto the brands they want most to keep. I give that less than a 5% chance of happening prior to 2034 which might be past the scope of my remaining years.
01-05-2018 11:35 PM
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Post: #50
RE: Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
(01-05-2018 06:54 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  From a gamesmanship perspective taking the Oklahoma pair would be a huge coup for the SEC. It hems in the Big Ten in a huge way and it isolates Texas. Texas can't go north to the Big Ten--the Big Ten can't take them and all of their non-AAU companions. If Texas wants to bail on the Big 12 (and let's face it they won't be heartbroken to leave Kansas, K St, Iowa St, and WVU behind) they have to go west which is undesirable for a number of reasons or they have to grovel their way into your 18+ member southern football confederacy.

If the point is to get access to sun belt states, sans Oklahoma, Texsa and/or schools in the Southeast there is only one option left and that would be a partial merger with the PAC schools and form a wing on the West Coast. Face it, the SEACC will do whatever it takes to keep their respective fiefdoms intact and keep out competitors. Perhaps merging with the PAC becomes a better option if it means the Big 12 doesn't break apart to solidify the SEC to the point of invulnerability.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid...608242&z=5
01-05-2018 11:54 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #51
RE: Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
(01-05-2018 11:54 PM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  
(01-05-2018 06:54 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  From a gamesmanship perspective taking the Oklahoma pair would be a huge coup for the SEC. It hems in the Big Ten in a huge way and it isolates Texas. Texas can't go north to the Big Ten--the Big Ten can't take them and all of their non-AAU companions. If Texas wants to bail on the Big 12 (and let's face it they won't be heartbroken to leave Kansas, K St, Iowa St, and WVU behind) they have to go west which is undesirable for a number of reasons or they have to grovel their way into your 18+ member southern football confederacy.

If the point is to get access to sun belt states, sans Oklahoma, Texsa and/or schools in the Southeast there is only one option left and that would be a partial merger with the PAC schools and form a wing on the West Coast. Face it, the SEACC will do whatever it takes to keep their respective fiefdoms intact and keep out competitors. Perhaps merging with the PAC becomes a better option if it means the Big 12 doesn't break apart to solidify the SEC to the point of invulnerability.

https://www.google.com/maps/d/viewer?mid...608242&z=5

You might want to go ahead and add Utah to go with Kansas to 24. That would start the Big 12 implosion. If so then I'd say you have a great shot at landing N.D. and with them Syracuse. Now the Irish have access in conference to Stanford, U.S.C., Michigan, Michigan State, Syracuse (for a New York presence) and with the access to another big prize.

By going West to the California schools and picking off Kansas you open up a track to Texas with the addition of Notre Dame. With Texas on board N.D. has good recruiting grounds in the Southwest, and with a New York, Rutgers, Maryland and Penn State they have a presence where their diaspora of alums reside. So if the SEC picks up the two Oklahomas and a second Texas school not named UT you preoccupy the SEC by having destabilized the ACC. So the SEC picks up 10 ACC schools* to go with the two Oklahoma's a second Texas school and another, perhaps W.V.U. to move to 28.

*(Virginia, Virginia Tech, Duke, North Carolina, N.C. State, Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami, Florida State, Louisville) to go with (Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, West Virginia and Texas Tech).

So the Big 10 plus 9 PAC schools and Kansas stands at 24 and lands N.D. and say Syracuse and now has a play for Texas and rounds them out with Iowa State. Now the Big 10 stands at 28 as well.

Together the 2 new conference form an upper tier of 56 schools of what will be 84 schools. Out temporarily are Arizona State, Wake Forest, Pittsburgh, Boston College, Kansas State, Baylor, T.C.U., Oregon State and Washington State.

So those 9 schools join the following: (Air Force, Army, Brigham Young, Boise State, Central Florida, Cincinnati, Colorado State, Connecticut, East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, Navy, Nevada Las Vegas, San Diego State, South Florida, S.M.U., Temple, Tulane, Wyoming) to form another 28 schools in a third P conference.

This completes the upper tier.

East: Army, Boston College, Cincinnati, Connecticut, Navy, Pitt, Temple

South: Central Florida, East Carolina, Houston, Memphis, South Florida, Tulane, Wake Forest

Central: Air Force, Baylor, Colorado State, Kansas State, S.M.U., T.C.U., Wyoming

West: Arizona State, Boise State, Brigham Young, Nevada Las Vegas, Oregon State, San Diego State, Washington State


There's your buffer conference. All included in the third P3 conference now have an in to the playoffs

The service academies and all of the 9 remaining original P5 are taken care of, and 16 present G5 are promoted.

It might not be perfect but it's a helluva lot better than what we have now.

Each conference has 2 regional winners (decided by a game between two divisions). Two at large bids go out as well and there is your 8 team playoff for a championship.
(This post was last modified: 01-06-2018 12:57 AM by JRsec.)
01-06-2018 12:48 AM
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templefootballfan Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
'91 conf expansion was in it's infancy. the game has changed.
conf networks now drive expansion, the sold called footprint.
Tex & TexA&M looking at B-8, Ark was being left behind in SWC
So Car was looking at Metro
ACC was horriable, they had to give FSU better offer
PSU was independant
they were all easy pickens

now your conglomerents jockeying for position
01-06-2018 01:09 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #53
RE: Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
(01-06-2018 01:09 AM)templefootballfan Wrote:  '91 conf expansion was in it's infancy. the game has changed.
conf networks now drive expansion, the sold called footprint.
Tex & TexA&M looking at B-8, Ark was being left behind in SWC
So Car was looking at Metro
ACC was horriable, they had to give FSU better offer
PSU was independant
they were all easy pickens

now your conglomerents jockeying for position

Look, the footprint model is now dying, if it's not already dead. Thanks to streaming the game for cash in the future will be for branding. Content will pay the bills so the conference with the best lineup of games that can generate national attention and strong regional attention will get the money.

Conglomerates may be jockeying for position but they still have to go through the conferences to acquire them. And the conferences they want most to go through are the SEC and Big 10. Why? They draw the largest audiences which as you know drives the ad rates.

That being the case nothing has changed for the SEC since '91. Texas and Oklahoma still deliver the most content especially if you are ESPN and you have the majority stake in the SEC. They are the 2nd and 8th most valuable brands.

So, until something happens with the ACC those are our targets. Both schools are either at or exceed our mean in attendance, both exceed our 131 million per school gross revenue, both are contiguous and Texas is AAU. Nobody in the ACC adds as much revenue to the SEC as these two schools. Not North Carolina, not Virginia Tech, not Florida State, and not Clemson.

And nobody else in the Big 12 is capable of adding significantly to our bottom line.

The SEC wants Oklahoma. ESPN wants Texas in an ESPN held conference.
01-06-2018 02:34 AM
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templefootballfan Offline
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Post: #54
RE: Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
I don't disagree with you, however I'm behind the times on new wave of watching TV [streaming etc]
Tex is not going anywhere, ESPN has half Tex rights, 2nd school in takes them down a notch.
Okla falls off the map, just like Neb
B-12 expands by 8, it would solve all thier promblems
NC BB brings in FB type ratings. [25 games a season]
01-06-2018 03:52 AM
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Post: #55
Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
(01-05-2018 11:35 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(01-05-2018 11:14 PM)templefootballfan Wrote:  SEC is not taking Okla much less OSU
who they moving east, Auburn or Auburn & Ala with Missouri moving west.
Va & NC are 1st on the list
SEC might be better off with VT & WV
maybe with Hous & Mia or [UCF is certainly moving into the picture]

And you know this how? In '91 when the discussions were held the path was clear. We looked West, not East. Our targets were Texas, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Florida State (who was independent) and looked East to one school (Clemson). There was a silent partner at the time for Texas (Oklahoma). Texas looked to the PAC, A&M couldn't shake free from Texas politics (there was a Baylor problem) Arkansas joined. ESPN didn't wan't the SEC to have total leverage over the state of Florida so the ACC (fully apprised of our offer which was looked over by a certain network) made their offer (a better one) the day before we showed up to make ours. Bobby Bowden cited an easier path to the playoffs as his reason and the rest is history. Some think Clemson only showed interest to spy, but either way a Clemson trustee told a South Carolina trustee we were looking so they applied and were accepted.

Here we are 25 years later and Arkansas is in. South Carolina took Clemson's slot. Missouri took Florida State's slot, and A&M is now in the SEC.

Who does that leave? Texas and Oklahoma.

As long as the SEC and ACC both have contracts with ESPN the SEC won't be taking an ACC school. So we continue to look West to the two best brands remaining on the table.

For the SEC to take ACC schools it would have to be after the Big 10 raided them and then we would be encouraged by ESPN to hold onto the brands they want most to keep. I give that less than a 5% chance of happening prior to 2034 which might be past the scope of my remaining years.


Since you brought up ‘91 and looking west, I’m told that with Arkansas in and the other prime expansion targets off the board that SEC feelers went out to Rice, as well. “Fix/Upgrade Rice Stadium, and we’ll sponsor Rice as #12.” Not sure whether this was before or after the SoCar application. We declined (partly out of loyalty! to SWC schools??). Curious if you’d heard any of that story.
01-06-2018 08:59 AM
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Post: #56
RE: Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
(01-04-2018 09:21 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(01-03-2018 05:40 PM)Erictelevision Wrote:  If/when OU moves to another conference, is this a fair characterization of preference for their partner

Fans/boosters/new conference: UT
The Oklahoma state legislature: OSU

Everything will boil down to the old saying.....

"Money talks, bull-it walks"

Not me, if I'm Texas I'm staying in the conf that gives me the easiest path to the playoffs. That's more important (for Texas) than if you bring in $150 million per year or $125 million.
01-06-2018 10:57 AM
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Post: #57
RE: Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
Texas can’t stay in the big 12 if OU leaves. I like the big 12 jumping to 12 with BYU and Colorado state. If wvu ever left, I like the big 12 carving out a southwest niche with New Mexico or bosie to replace them. The realignment movement rest on what Oklahoma wants to do in a few years though.
(This post was last modified: 01-06-2018 11:36 AM by bluesox.)
01-06-2018 11:34 AM
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Post: #58
RE: Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
(01-06-2018 11:34 AM)bluesox Wrote:  Texas can’t stay in the big 12 if OU leaves. I like the big 12 jumping to 12 with BYU and Colorado state. If wvu ever left, I like the big 12 carving out a southwest niche with New Mexico or bosie to replace them. The realignment movement rest on what Oklahoma wants to do in a few years though.

If Texas stayed in the Big 12 after OU left, the Big 12 would have to add some quality PAC 12 schools to keep the revenue up. Not just the Arizona schools, but a USC and/or a UCLA would be needed.

Remember, the SEC had to wait for the Big 12 to find resplacements for A&M and Missouri before announcing those moves because the Big 12 could have collapsed making the SEC potentially responsible for those remaining schools lose revenue from those TV contracts. That’s an expensive bill to receive.
01-06-2018 12:23 PM
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Post: #59
RE: Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
Why do so many of you think OU wants to leave??? The Big 12 is the easiest path they have for the playoffs. They make great money. They have a lot of say on what goes on. All of their team are centrally located for easy travel. When all of the TV contract come up for renewal in 7 year or so. There probably will be two teams that have separated themselves from the back for the Big 12 to add. If schools from the Pac 12 continue to be unhappy, it could be two of them. If not BYU, UC, UConn, UCF, USF, and/or UH will most likely be candidates at that time.
01-06-2018 12:34 PM
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Post: #60
RE: Oklahoma to new conference. preferred partner
I apologize if this is off-topic, but this thread gave me an idea. Suppose OU and OSU were to leave for the SEC. Instead of trying to prop up what's left of Big 12 football, Texas and 3 in-state friends join the PAC as football-only affiliates. Their non-football sports remain in the Big 12, though, easing travel burdens. The Big 12 restocks on football schools but is no longer considered a power conference. For example:

Big 12
East: Cincinnati, UCF, UConn, USF, West Virginia
West: Baylor, ISU, Kansas, KSU, Memphis
Non-FB: Houston, TCU, Texas, Texas Tech

Plausible?
(This post was last modified: 01-06-2018 04:09 PM by Nerdlinger.)
01-06-2018 01:20 PM
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