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waltgreenberg Offline
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Post: #21
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
(01-02-2018 10:25 AM)TechRocks Wrote:  
(01-02-2018 10:16 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  Out of curiosity, why would anyone "sell" Rice football stock at this moment? We cannot go any lower than where we've been the past two seasons...finally got rid of Bailiff, and hired a very highly regarded Bloomgren from Stanford, where he was Assistant Head Coach, offensive coordinator and OL coach?

Some investors like to buy high and sell low. LOL

Seriously, the only reason to sell a position in Rice right now would be if you believed it would take them at least a couple of years to get their act together and you wished to invest in a program that you were confident would bring great returns, aka FAU. I listed Rice as speculative-buy because we just don't know yet if or, how quickly, the new hire can turn things around. I think he was a great hire for that program.

Now, I'm not expecting Rice to be a serious contender in the West next year, but if the new coaching staff can impose much-needed discipline, and improve execution even a little bit, we should improve from a 1 win team to a 5 - 6 win team next season. Yes, the conference is that weak. Our offense should be vastly improved (not that that's saying much) as our true Freshman QB will have half a season of games under his belt, and we return our full contingent of quality RBs.
01-02-2018 10:31 AM
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MTowho Offline
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Post: #22
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
Buy high and sell low. That's what I learned in this thread. I hope most of you don't manage your own 401k. Lol.
01-02-2018 10:32 AM
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WKUYG Away
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Post: #23
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
(01-01-2018 07:33 PM)topper1296 Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 04:27 PM)TechRocks Wrote:  Buy, Sell, Hold based on 2017's results, coaching changes, returning players etc.

Western Kentucky: Sell, this one needs new management in the worst way.

I'm not sold on the new coach yet and especially some of his staff, however WKU did pull in it's highest rated recruiting class ever and the transition to a new coaching staff/system is never easy. I'd hold WKU for now until more information comes out.

Listening to Sanford is like CNN both see what they want to. Which most of the time is not facts.....

Western has 8 out of 19 three star players unsigned. If you look at the top 5 classes on 24/7 Western has the most unsigned recruits after the early period. Now those kids might still sign with Western. But there's only one reason they refused to sign early......

they are still looking and hoping for a better offer. Well there could be another. After seeing this coach on the field....second thoughts


[Image: RECRUIT_CLASS.jpg]
01-02-2018 10:47 AM
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ODUDrunkard13 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
(01-02-2018 10:47 AM)WKUYG Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 07:33 PM)topper1296 Wrote:  
(01-01-2018 04:27 PM)TechRocks Wrote:  Buy, Sell, Hold based on 2017's results, coaching changes, returning players etc.

Western Kentucky: Sell, this one needs new management in the worst way.

I'm not sold on the new coach yet and especially some of his staff, however WKU did pull in it's highest rated recruiting class ever and the transition to a new coaching staff/system is never easy. I'd hold WKU for now until more information comes out.

Listening to Sanford is like CNN both see what they want to. Which most of the time is not facts.....

Western has 8 out of 19 three star players unsigned. If you look at the top 5 classes on 24/7 Western has the most unsigned recruits after the early period. Now those kids might still sign with Western. But there's only one reason they refused to sign early......

they are still looking and hoping for a better offer. Well there could be another. After seeing this coach on the field....second thoughts


[Image: RECRUIT_CLASS.jpg]

Also possible, some haven't qualified yet.
01-02-2018 11:00 AM
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THUNDERStruck73 Online
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Post: #25
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
(01-02-2018 10:32 AM)MTowho Wrote:  Buy high and sell low. That's what I learned in this thread. I hope most of you don't manage your own 401k. Lol.

lol! True. But clearly this thread is assuming the initial investment has been made (progress over the year).
01-02-2018 11:06 AM
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banker Offline
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Post: #26
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
Here's a game. Let's say you have $75 bucks per person. You can spend it on any team, or as many teams, in CUSA that you want. The cost per share in the team is equal to the number of wins they had in 2017. So if you wanted a share of Marshall it would be $8. If you wanted to go all in on Marshall you could buy 9 shares of Marshall and put the remaining three bucks in Rice.

Your cumulative gain or loss is based on the 2018 win totals of the team's you own times the number of shares. That's looking at it truly like the stock market. That being the case, who buys FAU or UNT while they are sitting at all time highs with very limited upside? FAU would have to go undefeated to get you a 25% return. Rice could get you 100% by winning one extra game.
01-02-2018 11:12 AM
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WKUYG Away
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Post: #27
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
(01-02-2018 11:06 AM)THUNDERGround Wrote:  
(01-02-2018 10:32 AM)MTowho Wrote:  Buy high and sell low. That's what I learned in this thread. I hope most of you don't manage your own 401k. Lol.

lol! True. But clearly this thread is assuming the initial investment has been made (progress over the year).

The only reason I would hold (if I did not sell before the season...which I would have) on Western is because I think it's one of those stocks over a period of years will yield a good return and have a correction.

But I would have sold 75% of my stock before this season. Then bought it back late 2018 once it truly tanks.
01-02-2018 11:22 AM
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THUNDERStruck73 Online
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Post: #28
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
(01-02-2018 11:12 AM)banker Wrote:  Here's a game. Let's say you have $75 bucks per person. You can spend it on any team, or as many teams, in CUSA that you want. The cost per share in the team is equal to the number of wins they had in 2017. So if you wanted a share of Marshall it would be $8. If you wanted to go all in on Marshall you could buy 9 shares of Marshall and put the remaining three bucks in Rice.

Your cumulative gain or loss is based on the 2018 win totals of the team's you own times the number of shares. That's looking at it truly like the stock market. That being the case, who buys FAU or UNT while they are sitting at all time highs with very limited upside? FAU would have to go undefeated to get you a 25% return. Rice could get you 100% by winning one extra game.

That's a great way to frame the thread, Banker. Nice.04-cheers
01-02-2018 11:40 AM
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Side Show Joe Offline
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Post: #29
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
(01-02-2018 11:12 AM)banker Wrote:  Here's a game. Let's say you have $75 bucks per person. You can spend it on any team, or as many teams, in CUSA that you want. The cost per share in the team is equal to the number of wins they had in 2017. So if you wanted a share of Marshall it would be $8. If you wanted to go all in on Marshall you could buy 9 shares of Marshall and put the remaining three bucks in Rice.

Your cumulative gain or loss is based on the 2018 win totals of the team's you own times the number of shares. That's looking at it truly like the stock market. That being the case, who buys FAU or UNT while they are sitting at all time highs with very limited upside? FAU would have to go undefeated to get you a 25% return. Rice could get you 100% by winning one extra game.

I'll play if you start a dedicated thread and update it weekly once the season begins.
01-02-2018 12:13 PM
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Tintin Offline
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Post: #30
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
(01-02-2018 11:12 AM)banker Wrote:  Here's a game. Let's say you have $75 bucks per person. You can spend it on any team, or as many teams, in CUSA that you want. The cost per share in the team is equal to the number of wins they had in 2017. So if you wanted a share of Marshall it would be $8. If you wanted to go all in on Marshall you could buy 9 shares of Marshall and put the remaining three bucks in Rice.

Your cumulative gain or loss is based on the 2018 win totals of the team's you own times the number of shares. That's looking at it truly like the stock market. That being the case, who buys FAU or UNT while they are sitting at all time highs with very limited upside? FAU would have to go undefeated to get you a 25% return. Rice could get you 100% by winning one extra game.

Playing this game, I’d buy Charlotte, Rice and UTEP (infinity shares). Rice and UTEP would, at least, get my money back. Charlotte will beat Fordham despite how bad they might be.

I would short UAB, UNT and FIU, not that I think their programs are going the right way, but because they had a lot to right in 2017.
01-02-2018 12:38 PM
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TechRocks Offline
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Post: #31
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
(01-02-2018 11:06 AM)THUNDERGround Wrote:  
(01-02-2018 10:32 AM)MTowho Wrote:  Buy high and sell low. That's what I learned in this thread. I hope most of you don't manage your own 401k. Lol.

lol! True. But clearly this thread is assuming the initial investment has been made (progress over the year).

That is correct, these are the "stocks" we hold and we're trying to position ourselves for next year.
01-02-2018 01:06 PM
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Volkmar Offline
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Post: #32
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
I'll only comment on UTSA, and I'll say sell. We have had two terrific recruiting classes under Coach Wilson's first two seasons, guys who should start making a bigger impact this coming season as sophomores/juniors. We should have a pretty good recruiting class for next year also, albeit they'll be freshmen straight out of high school. That's the good part.

The bad part is all the coaching changes. The only coaching change we might come out ahead on is at offensive coordinator. The rest of the positions will be a crap shoot, and there's just no telling how the new faces will work out.

Given the recruits and the coaching changes, the first instinct would likely be to hold, but I say sell because our schedule also gets tougher again this year. We've had tough OOC opponents every year until this past year, as Baylor took their fall and the Houston game was cancelled. Next year we'll be back to our typical gauntlet of OOC opponents though as we have Arizona State, Kansas State, and Baylor (whom I'm sure will be improved over last year). Texas State is the only OOC team I feel confident about, so I think we'll likely be 1-3 heading into conference play, meaning we'll have to go 5-3 in conference to be bowl eligible.

Much of it depends on our new, yet-to-be-found OC and what sort of offense we'll run with the quarterbacks we have waiting in the wings. It might be a pro-style offense like we've been running, or a spread, depending on which of our quarterbacks get the nod, and what the incoming OC's philosophy is. It'll also be interesting to see how our defense performs with our DC Pete Golding going to Alabama. We promoted from within to replace him (LB coach Jason Rollins), presumably an attempt to keep what Golding was doing going, but again, we'll see how that works out for us.

Given our schedule though, and the question marks surrounding the new coaches, I think we'll do well just to hit .500, which would technically be worse than this year since we finished 6-5.
(This post was last modified: 01-02-2018 01:38 PM by Volkmar.)
01-02-2018 01:19 PM
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RowdyRoost Offline
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Post: #33
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
I'm afraid Southern Miss is going to be down. We're just losing too much.

Ito Smith (our feature RB) will be gone.
All 3 starting wide receivers (and our starting TE) will be gone.
All 4 starting defensive backs will be gone.
Our best edge rusher will be gone.
01-02-2018 01:25 PM
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MinerInWisconsin Offline
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Post: #34
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
Those that hold stocks in UTEP FB should just let it ride. Selling now would just be a total loss, maybe a tax write off though. How the Dimel hire will play out is totally unknown. Can he create an offense that is successful similar to that of K State on a C-USA level? Maybe, maybe not. He does know that immediate help is needed at the skill positions. He has one soph to be QB that is a dual threat in Mark Torrez. Hardly any experience though. He will bring in some transfers, both grad xfers and JC. I will wait until I see the mid-year xfers that have to sign by 1/15 and then also for the full class in the regular Feb signing period to see if the new talent looks like an upgrade. UTEP has at least 7 starters returning on each side of the ball but is that good or bad after an 0-12 year?
01-02-2018 01:49 PM
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banker Offline
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Post: #35
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
Obviously UTEP can't be bought for zero.

Here's what I'll think about doing, and if I do, I'll start a thread. I will look at the teams and assign a value between 1 and 10 for each team going into 2018. Anyone who wants to play will be given 100 points to invest in the teams however they see fit (whole shares only). It really won't matter what values I assign, even though I will try to be logical with it, because every one will have the opportunity to look for value with their buys. For example, if I assign a 4 to WKU their fans shouldn't be mad if they think they will win 8 next year, it just creates a buying opportunity.

The final score will be the number of wins multiplied by the number of shares you own in each team.
01-02-2018 03:14 PM
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TechRocks Offline
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Post: #36
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
(01-02-2018 03:14 PM)banker Wrote:  Obviously UTEP can't be bought for zero.

Here's what I'll think about doing, and if I do, I'll start a thread. I will look at the teams and assign a value between 1 and 10 for each team going into 2018. Anyone who wants to play will be given 100 points to invest in the teams however they see fit (whole shares only). It really won't matter what values I assign, even though I will try to be logical with it, because every one will have the opportunity to look for value with their buys. For example, if I assign a 4 to WKU their fans shouldn't be mad if they think they will win 8 next year, it just creates a buying opportunity.

The final score will be the number of wins multiplied by the number of shares you own in each team.

Why not make it a bit more complex (or lucrative) like some kind of extra bonus for bowl-eligible teams or teams that actually win a bowl game? Just tossing out ideas for the game.
01-02-2018 03:19 PM
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thefaU Offline
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Post: #37
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
(01-02-2018 03:14 PM)banker Wrote:  Obviously UTEP can't be bought for zero.

Here's what I'll think about doing, and if I do, I'll start a thread. I will look at the teams and assign a value between 1 and 10 for each team going into 2018. Anyone who wants to play will be given 100 points to invest in the teams however they see fit (whole shares only). It really won't matter what values I assign, even though I will try to be logical with it, because every one will have the opportunity to look for value with their buys. For example, if I assign a 4 to WKU their fans shouldn't be mad if they think they will win 8 next year, it just creates a buying opportunity.

The final score will be the number of wins multiplied by the number of shares you own in each team.

If you end up doing it, I'm in. 03-thumbsup
01-02-2018 03:21 PM
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Post: #38
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
(01-02-2018 09:05 AM)ODUDrunkard13 Wrote:  
(01-02-2018 08:35 AM)va-eagle Wrote:  ODU-sell; with FAU and FIU now being losses, I don't see ODU making a bowl next season.

ODU beat FIU this season with a 17 y-o QB and a team struggling with injuries to starters throughout the lineup. While next year, FIU will be in breaking in a new QB. So, not sure how that one is an auto-loss now.
ODU should be 3-1 in non-conference play next year (Liberty, ECU and VMI should all be wins) and are expected to play Rice and Charlotte (although both on the road). I hope there's another win there somewhere to become bowl eligible.

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01-02-2018 03:30 PM
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THUNDERStruck73 Online
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Post: #39
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
(01-02-2018 11:22 AM)WKUYG Wrote:  
(01-02-2018 11:06 AM)THUNDERGround Wrote:  
(01-02-2018 10:32 AM)MTowho Wrote:  Buy high and sell low. That's what I learned in this thread. I hope most of you don't manage your own 401k. Lol.

lol! True. But clearly this thread is assuming the initial investment has been made (progress over the year).

The only reason I would hold (if I did not sell before the season...which I would have) on Western is because I think it's one of those stocks over a period of years will yield a good return and have a correction.

But I would have sold 75% of my stock before this season. Then bought it back late 2018 once it truly tanks.

That is a good strategy Guns...makes perfect sense. l would have sold Marshall after the Morgan St game in 2016 and will uld have bought a bit back after we beat Miami this year...
01-02-2018 04:01 PM
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THUNDERStruck73 Online
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Post: #40
RE: C-USA Stock Recommendations: Football
(01-02-2018 03:14 PM)banker Wrote:  Obviously UTEP can't be bought for zero.

Here's what I'll think about doing, and if I do, I'll start a thread. I will look at the teams and assign a value between 1 and 10 for each team going into 2018. Anyone who wants to play will be given 100 points to invest in the teams however they see fit (whole shares only). It really won't matter what values I assign, even though I will try to be logical with it, because every one will have the opportunity to look for value with their buys. For example, if I assign a 4 to WKU their fans shouldn't be mad if they think they will win 8 next year, it just creates a buying opportunity.

The final score will be the number of wins multiplied by the number of shares you own in each team.

How much are you going to drop the stock per loss? lol r a multi loss negative multiplier?
01-02-2018 04:04 PM
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