We are up to 26th in all of Div I in the newest Massey ratings (NDSU is 30th):
https://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s...&sub=11590

and 46th in the latest Sagarin poll. (NDSU is 34th)
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Go Dukes!

(12-17-2017 10:57 AM)olddawg Wrote:  We are up to 26th in all of Div I in the newest Massey ratings (NDSU is 30th):
https://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s...&sub=11590

and 46th in the latest Sagarin poll. (NDSU is 34th)
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Go Dukes!

Sagarins are more accurate and consistent with betting lines.

We win and we will finish the top 30.

Despite a higher Massey rating, they still have us as a two point underdog to NDSU.

Also of note with the basketball's win yesterday we are up to 228. That's about a 30 point jump.

If we could be top 170 by year-end that would be a significant improvement for this year.

Although what concerns me he is how good this team will be in 2 years when the new arena opens. Ideally would like a top 100 team for the new arena. I have my concerns....

(12-17-2017 11:17 AM)Dukester Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 10:57 AM)olddawg Wrote:  We are up to 26th in all of Div I in the newest Massey ratings (NDSU is 30th):
https://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s...&sub=11590

and 46th in the latest Sagarin poll. (NDSU is 34th)
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Go Dukes!

Sagarins are more accurate and consistent with betting lines.

We win and we will finish the top 30.

I don't follow betting lines, but it strikes me that Sagarins has a built in flaw that builds in a preseason bias that continues to distort rankings even late in the season. Didn't NDSU still finish higher in Sagarins' system last year after getting beat by JMU? That just flies against logic.

(12-17-2017 06:29 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 11:17 AM)Dukester Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 10:57 AM)olddawg Wrote:  We are up to 26th in all of Div I in the newest Massey ratings (NDSU is 30th):
https://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s...&sub=11590

and 46th in the latest Sagarin poll. (NDSU is 34th)
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Go Dukes!

Sagarins are more accurate and consistent with betting lines.

We win and we will finish the top 30.

I don't follow betting lines, but it strikes me that Sagarins has a built in flaw that builds in a preseason bias that continues to distort rankings even late in the season. Didn't NDSU still finish higher in Sagarins' system last year after getting beat by JMU? That just flies against logic.

True. Forget where I read this, but Sagarin carries forward its weighting from multiple prior years, one reason I feel it is flawed compared to other rating systems. JMU in 2014/2015 was very different than JMU in 2016/2017.

The same weighting favors teams like Alabama and the SEC over the ACC in Sagarin FBS ranking.

(12-17-2017 06:29 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 11:17 AM)Dukester Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 10:57 AM)olddawg Wrote:  We are up to 26th in all of Div I in the newest Massey ratings (NDSU is 30th):
https://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s...&sub=11590

and 46th in the latest Sagarin poll. (NDSU is 34th)
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Go Dukes!

Sagarins are more accurate and consistent with betting lines.

We win and we will finish the top 30.

I don't follow betting lines, but it strikes me that Sagarins has a built in flaw that builds in a preseason bias that continues to distort rankings even late in the season. Didn't NDSU still finish higher in Sagarins' system last year after getting beat by JMU? That just flies against logic.

Initially they need to use last season, since there is no data, or enough data until around early to mid October. There is no prior year bias in the current ratings.

Sagarins have NDSU by 2.5.
Sagarins predictor has NDSU by 4

The betting line is 3.5

Lines were pretty close for the semifinal games, and all the playoff games.

(12-17-2017 07:15 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 06:29 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 11:17 AM)Dukester Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 10:57 AM)olddawg Wrote:  We are up to 26th in all of Div I in the newest Massey ratings (NDSU is 30th):
https://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s...&sub=11590

and 46th in the latest Sagarin poll. (NDSU is 34th)
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Go Dukes!

Sagarins are more accurate and consistent with betting lines.

We win and we will finish the top 30.

I don't follow betting lines, but it strikes me that Sagarins has a built in flaw that builds in a preseason bias that continues to distort rankings even late in the season. Didn't NDSU still finish higher in Sagarins' system last year after getting beat by JMU? That just flies against logic.

Initially they need to use last season, since there is no data, or enough data until around early to mid October. There is no prior year bias in the current ratings.

Sagarins have NDSU by 2.5.
Sagarins predictor has NDSU by 4

The betting line is 3.5

Lines were pretty close for the semifinal games, and all the playoff games.

Well, thank goodness the championship is settled on the field in FCS, because if Sagarins starts with the previous season's results, why-oh-why would JMU trail NDSU (and not by a little) at the beginning? Color me still suspicious.

If Sagarin was all that relevant, poor little JMU could not have possibly won the natty last year.

My Observations:
1) Sagarin performs poorly compared to other rating systems. This is not subjective, its based on measured results/performance.

2) Sagarin consistently (for whatever reason), tends to favor the older traditional powers (SEC, Alabama, MVFC, NDSU), whereas other, MORE MEASURABLY ACCURATE systems like Versus tend to favor teams that have more recent success (ACC, Clemson, CAA, JMU).

3) Even the very best rating systems this year got it right less than 75% of the time. So while they can give you a general idea of relative team strength, its rediculous to say one team will beat another because they are a few notches higher in any statistical rating system. They will be wrong at least 25% of the time.

Where are the Versus lines? As someone who "may" have a bit of experience in speculating on college football, I would be curious to see their rankings. I don't personally use any rankings before deciding on who to "rank" higher, but it is good watercooler talk.

(12-17-2017 08:07 PM)olddawg Wrote:  Where are the Versus lines? As someone who "may" have a bit of experience in speculating on college football, I would be curious to see their rankings. I don't personally use any rankings before deciding on who to "rank" higher, but it is good watercooler talk.

Don’t believe Versus publically posts their predictions (its a subscription service).
The data/rankings are here: http://www.compughterratings.com/FCS/rankings

For those who want to see comparison of the various rating systems:
http://www.thepredictiontracker.com/ncaaresults.php

By the end of the season the sagarin ratings are no longer "biased" towards preseason weights / years. Early in the year you need to use preseason weights to increase accuracy. The ratings would be way worse if you didn't have the anchor rating.

JMU was about a 7 point underdog at NDST last year. You beat them, but if you had played the next day even after beating them you still would have been an underdog, perhaps 4.5 to 5.5 points. Thats just how it works. You were better on the field last year no doubt, doesn't necessarily mean you were a better team if played them 50 times. I will say last year you guys got so hot that you were probably being undervalued by the power ratings. But your still a dog if played in Fargo again for sure and by at least a FG.

Also sagarin doesn't just carry over from year before, they do some 5 year weighting averaging. The ratings are not very good at the start of the year, by now they are pretty good - as good as you can get for football where you only have 12 data points and your data is scores/SOS for results. The best projections are done using adjusted yards per play for schedule but you won't find those for free anywhere. Football is a game with high variance where the scoring doesn't always reflect the gameplay. For instance you guys pretty much dominated Weber St but the points/score didn't reflect it. A quality system would recognize your dominance on a YPP basis in that game which is much more predictive than the scoring for future results.

Looking forward to Frisco. Would have definitely liked the Bizzzzzzzon with your offensive line injuries but they somehow didn't look like an issue vs SDST and now the secondary injuries for NDST (secondary is an underrated position of importance) could really cause them problems.

(12-17-2017 10:57 AM)olddawg Wrote:  We are up to 26th in all of Div I in the newest Massey ratings (NDSU is 30th):
https://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s...&sub=11590

and 46th in the latest Sagarin poll. (NDSU is 34th)
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Go Dukes!

I apologize but I like to see JMU in a list format with the other teams/conferences/divisions just to show JMU fans how lucky we are and what rarified air we are in as a football program (regardless of division/conference affiliation).

1.Clemson (ACC)
2. Georgia (SEC)
3. Oklahoma (Big 12)
4. Ohio State (Big Ten)
5. Wisconsin (Big Ten)
6. Alabama (SEC)
7. Penn State (Big Ten)
8. Auburn (SEC)
9. Notre Dame
10. UCF (AAC)
11. TCU (Big 12)
12. Miami FL (ACC)
13. Oklahoma State (Big 12)
14. Va Tech (ACC)
15. USC (Pac 12)
16. Michigan State (Big Ten)
17. Northwestern (Big Ten)
18. Washington (Pac 12)
19. Michigan (Big Ten)
20. NC State (ACC)
21. LSU (SEC)
22. Louisville (ACC)
23. Iowa (Big Ten)
24. Iowa State (Big 12)
25. Boston College (ACC)
26. JMU (CAA/FCS)

(12-17-2017 10:32 PM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 10:57 AM)olddawg Wrote:  We are up to 26th in all of Div I in the newest Massey ratings (NDSU is 30th):
https://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s...&sub=11590

and 46th in the latest Sagarin poll. (NDSU is 34th)
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Go Dukes!

I apologize but I like to see JMU in a list format with the other teams/conferences/divisions just to show JMU fans how lucky we are and what rarified air we are in as a football program (regardless of division/conference affiliation).

1.Clemson (ACC)
2. Georgia (SEC)
3. Oklahoma (Big 12)
4. Ohio State (Big Ten)
5. Wisconsin (Big Ten)
6. Alabama (SEC)
7. Penn State (Big Ten)
8. Auburn (SEC)
9. Notre Dame
10. UCF (AAC)
11. TCU (Big 12)
12. Miami FL (ACC)
13. Oklahoma State (Big 12)
14. Va Tech (ACC)
15. USC (Pac 12)
16. Michigan State (Big Ten)
17. Northwestern (Big Ten)
18. Washington (Pac 12)
19. Michigan (Big Ten)
20. NC State (ACC)
21. LSU (SEC)
22. Louisville (ACC)
23. Iowa (Big Ten)
24. Iowa State (Big 12)
25. Boston College (ACC)
26. JMU (CAA/FCS)

While fun to look at we are not a top 26 team in FBS.

(12-17-2017 10:44 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 07:15 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 06:29 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 11:17 AM)Dukester Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 10:57 AM)olddawg Wrote:  We are up to 26th in all of Div I in the newest Massey ratings (NDSU is 30th):
https://www.masseyratings.com/rate.php?s...&sub=11590

and 46th in the latest Sagarin poll. (NDSU is 34th)
http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm

Go Dukes!

Sagarins are more accurate and consistent with betting lines.

We win and we will finish the top 30.

I don't follow betting lines, but it strikes me that Sagarins has a built in flaw that builds in a preseason bias that continues to distort rankings even late in the season. Didn't NDSU still finish higher in Sagarins' system last year after getting beat by JMU? That just flies against logic.

Initially they need to use last season, since there is no data, or enough data until around early to mid October. There is no prior year bias in the current ratings.

Sagarins have NDSU by 2.5.
Sagarins predictor has NDSU by 4

The betting line is 3.5
Lines were pretty close for the semifinal games, and all the playoff games.

JMU +3.0 now..

This is the current line at 5dimes

North Dakota State vs James Madison - FCS Championship - Toyota Stadium - Frisco, TX
Sat 1/6 367 North Dakota State -3 -135

368 James Madison +3 -105

-3-135 is more than 3 points

-3-135 is roughly 3.5.


You really going to argue over .5 of a point?

(12-17-2017 10:50 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 10:44 PM)BDKJMU Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 07:15 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 06:29 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 11:17 AM)Dukester Wrote:  Sagarins are more accurate and consistent with betting lines.

We win and we will finish the top 30.

I don't follow betting lines, but it strikes me that Sagarins has a built in flaw that builds in a preseason bias that continues to distort rankings even late in the season. Didn't NDSU still finish higher in Sagarins' system last year after getting beat by JMU? That just flies against logic.

Initially they need to use last season, since there is no data, or enough data until around early to mid October. There is no prior year bias in the current ratings.

Sagarins have NDSU by 2.5.
Sagarins predictor has NDSU by 4

The betting line is 3.5
Lines were pretty close for the semifinal games, and all the playoff games.

JMU +3.0 now..

This is the current line at 5dimes

North Dakota State vs James Madison - FCS Championship - Toyota Stadium - Frisco, TX
Sat 1/6 367 North Dakota State -3 -135

368 James Madison +3 -105

-3-135 is more than 3 points

-3-135 is roughly 3.5.


You really going to argue over .5 of a point?

I see now you have it on the other thread. I wasn't arguing, I was pointing out that (I thought) it moved..
So when it goes from 3.0 to 2.5 no need to say anything since its only half a point. And when it goes from 2.5 to 2.0 no need to say anything because its only half a point.
And when it goes from....

So when it moves in half point increments don;t say anything, only if it moves in whole points?

(12-17-2017 08:18 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  Don’t believe Versus publically posts their predictions (its a subscription service).
The data/rankings are here: http://www.compughterratings.com/FCS/rankings

According to that site, we will have played the #2, #3, #4 and #5 teams in the playoffs.

Conversely, NDSU will have played #41, #10, #7 and #1 (us).

Not an expert on the ratings but typically use of the power rating is best indicator of truly who is better. Either way youve played at least SDST and Weber who are 3rd and 4th. Its been another impressive run.

NDST truly has had an embarassing list of teams not even in the top 25 of power ratings for FCS for their path. You can only beat who they give you, and they've done it impressively but nothing like what you guys faced last 2 weeks.