(12-17-2017 11:11 AM)PGJMU2 Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 10:43 AM)Birdman33 Wrote:  The North Dakota State Bison may be returning to the FCS title game, but they'll likely be without three key players after injuries suffered in their semifinal victory Friday.

Coach Chris Klieman confirmed on 970 WDAY in Fargo on Saturday that junior cornerbacks Jalen Allison and Jaylaan Wimbush suffered knee injuries in the semifinal, and sophomore running back Ty Brooks dislocated his shoulder.

The way Alls, Stapleton, Eldridge and Hyman are playing, NDSU should be very concerned having lost to their top two CBs.

My guess is our starters lost for injury for the year far exceeded those lost to injury for the bison. Heck - coming into this year the o-line was our biggest concern. Yesterday even 4 of those 5 projected preseason starters were not in the game due to injury.

(12-17-2017 11:12 AM)Purple Wrote:  Bison fans are OK. Those who say they aren't concerned about this game are full of it. Likewise, anyone on our board not concerned about this game is talking nonsense. I GUARANTEE you Mike Houston is concerned about this game, as is every JMU player. They didn't get here and take us with them by discounting any team.

My reply to one of those bravado posts on their board....

So, that's all we did was win the title last year, like by the skin of our teeth, right?

Are you listening to yourself, man?

That is silly. Remember, we had to go through the Fargodome to get to Frisco last year. If our championship last year is meaningless, what does that say about the Bison?

Furthermore, NDSU is #2 (don't get excited, no double meaning there) and they will remain that way until they remove the zero from JMU's "L" column. Good luck with that. Twenty-six teams in two years have tried, including the Bison.

"It is kinda great they win a title last year and all of the sudden there is no team on earth that can beat them." I don't know who is saying that. My guess is no one. NDSU can beat us. SDSU could have beaten us on the right day. That day just wasn't yesterday. Weber could have beaten us and damned near did (it's that fourth quarter you should be paying attention to. We found something there on the surface and deep down inside that, well, I will leave it there).

True fans of the game know who the Bison are and we know that you are damned good.

Now, if you would like to cease with the disingenuous "I ain't skeered" bravado and swap legitimate concerns, I'm all in, but I don't think anyone at JMU really has that attitude. You will see at Frisco. We are really cool folks.

Most accurate post yet

Quote: Yesterday even 4 of those 5 projected preseason starters were not in the game due to injury.

That was what surprised me most about the game, didn't seem a big factor especially when the floodgates exploded in 2H.

(12-17-2017 02:27 PM)UofRfan Wrote:  

Quote: Yesterday even 4 of those 5 projected preseason starters were not in the game due to injury.

That was what surprised me most about the game, didn't seem a big factor especially when the floodgates exploded in 2H.

Me too. Yesterday was the best we looked all year. Thinking 3 weeks won't hurt for them to improve, plus we could get a stud back from injury. Makes me feel excited about the o-line for next year.

If we can run the ball versus NC state we have a chance.....

This was talked about last year, but worth mentioning again.
Remember how Houston has built this team. He built it to beat one team: NDSU.
One year later and that mindset hasn't changed. This time we're on a neutral field. I like our chances but it certainly isn't guaranteed. Should be a great game.

Both teams are as tough as they come. If I had to bet on the game, I'd bet JMU, but as others have said, it's one game and I won't be shocked however it turns out.

Glad this one isn't in the dome.

The reasonable NDSU fans know their team will have more then their hands full.

What are JMU's advantages going into the NC game? As I see it (and these are just the 8 most obvious to me):

1. A superior defense anchored by 3 All-Americans that will shut down NDSU's passing game and stymy their running game.
2. A superior 4-5 headed JMU receiving corp against a weakened NDSU secondary. Alls, Eldridge, Stapleton, and Hyman (to say nothing about Miller and Kloosterman) will have a field day against second-string CBs.
3. No home field advantage for NDSU. No "tin can" noise to provoke illegal procedures.
4. An experienced Sr. JMU QB who has a better than average arm who's already won a NC and can handle the pressure of a big game.
5. An emerging home-run threat in Marcus Marshall, a RB with elite speed who is just now coming into his own. NDSU's relief that Khalid Abdulla won't play in the rematch is in for a rude awakening when an energized Marshall lines up behind Schor.
6. A superior coaching staff, that has built a physical, confident team who won't be intimidated and knows it can beat NDSU.
7. The best band in the entire country to help turn the venue into a BFS home game.
8. Last, but not least, a JMU fanbase that will be there in force, loud, proud and every bit as supportive as the NDSU fans who attend.

While common sense says the results will be determined on the field, and at this level it's possible for either team to win, I can't understand how anybody can make NDSU the favorite to beat JMU.

(12-17-2017 07:10 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  The reasonable NDSU fans know their team will have more then their hands full.

What are JMU's advantages going into the NC game? As I see it (and these are just the 8 most obvious to me):

1. A superior defense anchored by 3 All-Americans that will shut down NDSU's passing game and stymy their running game.
2. A superior 4-5 headed JMU receiving corp against a weakened NDSU secondary. Alls, Eldridge, Stapleton, and Hyman (to say nothing about Miller and Kloosterman) will have a field day against second-string CBs.
3. No home field advantage for NDSU. No "tin can" noise to provoke illegal procedures.
4. An experienced Sr. JMU QB who has a better than average arm who's already won a NC and can handle the pressure of a big game.
5. An emerging home-run threat in Marcus Marshall, a RB with elite speed who is just now coming into his own. NDSU's relief that Khalid Abdulla won't play in the rematch is in for a rude awakening when an energized Marshall lines up behind Schor.
6. A superior coaching staff, that has built a physical, confident team who won't be intimidated and knows it can beat NDSU.
7. The best band in the entire country to help turn the venue into a BFS home game.
8. Last, but not least, a JMU fanbase that will be there in force, loud, proud and every bit as supportive as the NDSU fans who attend.

While common sense says the results will be determined on the field, and at this level it's possible for either team to win, I can't understand how anybody can make NDSU the favorite to beat JMU.

Well you should bet on JMU, I will. You don’t think NDSU has any advantages over us?

(12-17-2017 08:38 PM)Dukester Wrote:  

(12-17-2017 07:10 PM)Longhorn Wrote:  The reasonable NDSU fans know their team will have more then their hands full.

What are JMU's advantages going into the NC game? As I see it (and these are just the 8 most obvious to me):

1. A superior defense anchored by 3 All-Americans that will shut down NDSU's passing game and stymy their running game.
2. A superior 4-5 headed JMU receiving corp against a weakened NDSU secondary. Alls, Eldridge, Stapleton, and Hyman (to say nothing about Miller and Kloosterman) will have a field day against second-string CBs.
3. No home field advantage for NDSU. No "tin can" noise to provoke illegal procedures.
4. An experienced Sr. JMU QB who has a better than average arm who's already won a NC and can handle the pressure of a big game.
5. An emerging home-run threat in Marcus Marshall, a RB with elite speed who is just now coming into his own. NDSU's relief that Khalid Abdulla won't play in the rematch is in for a rude awakening when an energized Marshall lines up behind Schor.
6. A superior coaching staff, that has built a physical, confident team who won't be intimidated and knows it can beat NDSU.
7. The best band in the entire country to help turn the venue into a BFS home game.
8. Last, but not least, a JMU fanbase that will be there in force, loud, proud and every bit as supportive as the NDSU fans who attend.

While common sense says the results will be determined on the field, and at this level it's possible for either team to win, I can't understand how anybody can make NDSU the favorite to beat JMU.

Well you should bet on JMU, I will. You don’t think NDSU has any advantages over us?

#3, 7, 8 (essentially noise/home field advantage) are TBD. Bison history of buying tickets in advance favors them having many more fans there, but we won’t know the full picture until everyone arrives in Frisco.

NDSU also had 24 hours to snap stuff up while you guys were waiting to play SDST. Big advantage for fan size imo.

Hopefully we had a lot of overconfident fans that bought tickets ahead of time.

Bizzzzzzzzzzzzzzzon fans are nervous and they should be. A team that beat them by 12 just lost to us by 35. They spent all week thumping their chests about how we're going to get blown out by SDSU and then the exact opposite happens.

A steady diet of postseason cupcakes will not prepare you for what they're about to play.

Here's my attempt to be unbiased about the match up -

I do believe we have the best coaching staff in FCS. Based on resumes, and success the last two years.

I do think over all we have the best defense in FCS. Our backs are amazing in coverage. Defensive line is technically sound, and talented. We've remained relatively healthy all year.

I think both QB's are very good, but give Brian a slight edge as well as our passing attack.

Running game I favor NDSU. I think accordingly they have the better offensive line. Our running game seemed to of turned the corner the last two games, but is not something that has proven can carry a team. I think their running game can carry a team.

Crowd - I'm expecting at least 50% more NDSU fans.

The recipe to beat JMU, in my opinion, is to patiently stick with the running game. We given up yards against both WS and SDS (take away the sacks). I think this plays into what the bison like to do.

That said, I have all the faith in this coaching staff. They are amazing. I think JMU wins this one. Personally I'd favor JMU by 3-7 points, but as I said nothing would surprise me including either team winning by a big margin.

Basically NDSU has had one slip up in a crucial game in 7 years.

In two years JMU has lost only once, to a UNC who was playing well at the time early in Houston's first season.

I think both teams and fan bases our appropriately confident.

Without a doubt the best two teams in FCS.

To be honest I was not sure of that last week, before I saw our improved our running game. I thought we might of been the third best team. The last two weeks we finally turned the corner in the running game between the line, and how Marshall is running with the football.


Should be an amazing game.

The Hype is earned and deserved.

I don’t think NDSU is very strong at WR. Their RB Anderson looked Good Friday night. They like to run him and Stick a lot. With SDSU, JMU was focused on stopping the two NFL prospects at WR and TE. That opened up the run game to a degree. That won’t be the case with NDSU. JMU likely loads up the box and makes Stick beat us with his arm. I honestly don’t think he can do it either.

If JMU sells out to stop the run, can NDSU run on us? The answer will determine the outcome of this game.

If NDSU’s defense is as good as advertised, then we will have a defensive battle and a low scoring affair. If not, be prepared for another game like Youngstown.

JMU (14-0, 8-0 CAA)
NDSU (13-1, 7-1 MVFC)

Massey - NDSU 2 point favorites (23-21 predicted score)
Sagarin - NDSU 3 point favorites (rounded)

Passing Offense:
JMU - 41st, 230.2 ypg
NDSU - 88th, 180.0 ypg

Passing Defense:
NDSU - 3rd, 147.9 ypg
JMU - 12th, 163.8 ypg

Rushing Offense:
NDSU - 4th, 282.1 ypg
JMU - 19th, 201.5 ypg

Rushing Defense:
JMU - 6th, 87.4 ypg
NDSU - 7th, 89.2 ypg

Red Zone Offense:
NDSU - 21st, RZ Points 86.7% of the time in 60 attempts.
JMU - 22nd, RZ Points 86.4% of the time in 66 attempts.

Red Zone Defense:
JMU - 10th, Opp RZ Points 68.2% of the time in 22 attempts.
NDSU - 59th, Opp RZ Points 80% of the time in 30 attempts.

Scoring Offense:
NDSU - 2nd, 40.3 ppg
JMU - 8th, 35.9 ppg

Scoring Defense:
JMU - 1st, 10.7 ppg
NDSU - 2nd, 11.5 ppg

Total Offense:
NDSU - 8th, 462.1 ypg
JMU - 21st, 431.7 ypg

Total Defense:
NDSU - 1st, 237.1 ypg
JMU - 3rd, 251.1 ypg

Turnover Margin:
JMU - 43 gained, 19 lost. +24 TO.
NDSU - 33 gained, 16 lost. +17 TO.

Starting QB Passing Efficiency:
RANK NAME CL POSITION G PASS ATT PASS COM INT PASS YDS PASS TD PASS EFF
NDSU - 2nd Easton Stick Jr. QB 14 242 151 8 2336 27 173.7
JMU - 17th Bryan Schor Sr. QB 14 385 257 12 3074 26 149.9

My Take:
Well here we are. We were supposed to be beaten into the ground and just lucky to be on the field against the Missouri Valley Football Gods. It's like when we go to play UNC. We're just lucky to be in the same zip code with all the exposure they bring us. Our championship last year was a fluke. We're the worst undefeated defending champion in the history of college football. That's what they said.
Well, somehow we managed to win and we're again just lucky to be breathing the same bizzzzon air as them. Massey, Sagarin and Vegas all agree. The 26 straight winning, undefeated national champions are underdogs.

UNDERDOGS.

Why bother to write anything? Why not.

It's two roughly comparable defenses and the only difference I see is our 10 more turnovers forced (thanks SDSU!). The differences will be the offenses. JMU has a noticeable edge in the passing game, but NDSU's Stick is the 2nd most efficient QB in FCS. We need to win with the pass I believe but NDSU has a very good pass D. Our offensive line clearly needs to have the game of their careers to win.
NDSU has a modest rushing advantage over us but Marcus Marshall's last two games have been very encouraging. We have to keep that up.
It's two evenly matched teams and either can win it (well if you ignored the entire internet that is). A single play could be the difference in what is sure to be a low scoring defensive battle.

Expect both teams to be unable to get past 25 points in all likelihood. A 21-14 type of game is likely. Who will have that 21st point though?

I'm just now realizing that outside of the 1st two plays of our first TD drive from the five yard line after the fumble recovery, I didn't have much to complain about with the O-line play during meaningful time. Is it just me, or did they just have a very good game?

SOS Differences JMU/NDSU:
Massey: NDSU 12, JMU 14
Sagarin: NDSU 140, JMU 160

Playoff SOS JMU/NDSU:
Massey: JMU - SB 11, WSU 4, SDSU 3. Avg. 6
NDSU - USD 25, Wofford 22, SHSU 10. Avg. 19

Sagarin: JMU - SB 124, WSU 78, SDSU 61. Avg. 88
NDSU - USD 152, Wofford 122, SHSU 112. Avg. 129

Our stats have been humbled some while we have been playing real teams. The difference in playoff resumes is night and day. I wonder what effect that'll have when you haven't really been truly tested in your last five games.

Isn't North Dakota State more of a one trick pony on offense than some of these other teams? JMU will game plan to stop the run especially without as much at QB and WR to worry about as the last couple of weeks. The JMU coaching staff has shown that they have a few wrinkles that they haven't shown yet and started to show some of that in the semi finals. I expect a few more on 1/6.

It's amazing how close the stats for the 2 teams are. Barring turnovers it should be a 1 score game at the end as some have mentioned.

NDSU isn't really a 1 trick pony. With how effective the run game has been all year Stick just hasn't been asked to do to much, but ever since the SDSU debacle he has played very well, accurate and efficient with his passes. NDSUs receivers don't have a lot of height and aren't exactly burners but Sheppard and particularly Urzendowski have excellent hands and make great plays on the ball. I am worried a little about JMUs secondary though as they have looked great in coverage and forced a lot of turnovers in the past couple games. I honestly think that if NDSU gets behind by 14 or more points late in the game it will be tough to come back as that isn't what NDSU is built for.

(12-17-2017 10:23 PM)NJDuke97 Wrote:  Isn't North Dakota State more of a one trick pony on offense than some of these other teams? JMU will game plan to stop the run especially without as much at QB and WR to worry about as the last couple of weeks. The JMU coaching staff has shown that they have a few wrinkles that they haven't shown yet and started to show some of that in the semi finals. I expect a few more on 1/6.

This. We are more balanced on offense than NDSU. I think this will be more decisive than some may think. Based on my eye test, NDSU’s passing game strongly relies on a strong running game to set up bootlegs and play action passing. Stop the run, and you also limit their passing game. We seemed to be pretty effective at this last year, and I think our defense is only better this go-around. When the bison fell behind 2 scores in the 4th quarter with almost 7 minutes still to play, it was almost sad how obviously inadequate their straight drop-back passing game was once running was no longer a realistic option.

They may have a superb pass defense, but I wonder how good it will be without their top 2 CBs? I have to think that is a huge blow. Can you imagine the impact if we had lost Jimmy and Rashad? I believe I read that one was replaced by a freshman. I hope for their sake he’s good.

I expect our fans to be outnumbered for all the known reasons, but their fans won’t nearly have the same impact as they enjoy in their dome. Frisco is also a venue that should be comfortable for both teams.

Not saying this will be some sort of guaranteed victory, but I feel confident we will have advantages in this game.