(12-15-2017 09:37 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 09:33 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so looking at Ken Pom- with those just binary w/l projections...
1 Wichita 17-1- would be overall a 28-2 record if they beat Oklahoma- 3.4 RPI. 27-3 if they lose to Oklahoma 5.0 RPI
2 Cincy 16-2- would be overall a 27-4 record if they beat UCLA- 13.1 RPI. 26-5 if they lose to UCLA 17.1 RPI
3 SMU 14-4- would be overall a 24-7 record. 24.3 RPI.
4 Houston 12-6- would be overall a 22-8 record if they beat Providence- 38.0 RPI. 21-9 if they lose to Providence- 46.5 RPI
5 Temple 11-7- would be overall a 20-10 record if they beat Georgia- 23.8 RPI. 19-11 if they lose to Georgia- 30.3 RPI

If Houston and Temple can win those OOC games, and the final league standings are as projected, 5 I think isn't just possible, it's probable.

That Houston game against Providence is just absolutely critical for their tourney chances. A 12-6 record in the AAC will get them in the tourney with that win. Without it, I think they need to go 14-4 just about.

1 thing looking at it, if this were the final standings, the Houston/Temple QF game would if Houston had lost to Providence be just crucial. A Houston win there would get them in the tourney easily. Temple at then 21-11(with a meaningless win vs USF/ECU) easily in as well. On the other hand- a Temple win would put Houston out of the tourney.

(12-15-2017 08:47 AM)HuskyU Wrote:  1. Houston (Rob Gray is God)
2. UCF (Unstoppable with BJ back)
3. Tulsa (Will finish 3rd)
4. Wichita State (Shamet is meh)
5. Cincinnati (Feasts on cupcakes, Loses to teams with a pulse)
6. Temple (Wins vs top half of the league, Losses vs bottom half)
7. SMU (Couldn't beat OOC mid-majors, Won't beat AAC mid-majors)
8. ECU (Best finish in school history - Pirates hang a banner)
9 Tulane ()
10. Memphis (#FireTubby)
11. UCONN (#FireOllie)
12. USF (#DisbandTheProgram)

I think my favorite one is the Tulsa one.

(12-15-2017 10:34 AM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 08:47 AM)HuskyU Wrote:  1. Houston (Rob Gray is God)
2. UCF (Unstoppable with BJ back)
3. Tulsa (Will finish 3rd)
4. Wichita State (Shamet is meh)
5. Cincinnati (Feasts on cupcakes, Loses to teams with a pulse)
6. Temple (Wins vs top half of the league, Losses vs bottom half)
7. SMU (Couldn't beat OOC mid-majors, Won't beat AAC mid-majors)
8. ECU (Best finish in school history - Pirates hang a banner)
9 Tulane ()
10. Memphis (#FireTubby)
11. UCONN (#FireOllie)
12. USF (#DisbandTheProgram)

I think my favorite one is the Tulsa one.

Me too. Rob Gray is a God makes me laugh too.

(12-15-2017 09:34 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 07:51 AM)Bearcats#1 Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 06:47 AM)BrooklynRocket Wrote:  If Cincy wins at UCLA Saturday then they've officially turned the corner and the rest of the league should be concerned.

If they lose then 2nd place may as well be up for grabs.

I'm not sure I agree with this on a couple different levels...

Beating UCLA this year at UCLA is a nice win, but it's not a great win. Their RPI and Kenpom are fair, not good. So beating them doesn't really mean we've turned the corner IMO.

Also, Wichita State is a great team and without a starter still.

Bottom line, we could go in and crush UCLA and I don't think it proves a whole lot other than gives us a solid (not great) win on the road vs a traditional blue blood.

We are getting close to 'you are who you are' right now and to me UC looks like a team that will finish 2 or 3 in the conference at best. This puts us as somewhere between 5 and 7 seed me thinks. Depends on how the AAC and conference SOS shapes out.

WSU however looks like a 1 or 2 seed at worst.

I know it's popular to be all self deprecating right now as a UC fan, but I don't see a way UC doesn't finish in at least second in the conference.

Beating UCLA on the road is a better win than you give credit for. It's roughly equivalent to winning a neutral site game against SMU/Louisville/Florida St in the eyes of the metrics.

My predictions:
1) Wichita St
2) UC
3) SMU
4) Houston
5) Temple
6) UCF
7) UConn
8) Tulane
9) Memphis
10) ECU
11) Tulsa
12) USF

The way it happens is SMU is better than people think and UC doesn't get it figured out to the level it needs offensively. I think those SMU wins against Arizona and USC are going to be absolutely enormous for the conference come tournament time. SMU could legitimately be a top 15-20 team that people aren't really talking about. Unlike last year they actually have the nonconference wins that are going to help them with seeding come march. I think the race between the top 3 in the AAC is going to be great.

My predictions:
1) Wichita St
2) UC

3) SMU
4) Temple

5) Houston
6) UCF
7) UConn

8) Tulane

9) Tulsa

10) ECU
11) Memphis
12) USF

OK fine... I'll go

Tier 1
1a) Cincinnati
1b) Wichita St
3) SMU

Tier 2
4) Temple
5) UCF
6) Houston

Tier 3
7) UConn
8) Tulsa
9) Tulane

Tier 4
10) Memphis (You can probably tack Memphis on the end of Tier 3, but I wanted to make it clear that Memphis sucks... and tier 5 is an abomination)

Tier 5
11) ECU
12) USF

I think the team that folks will be surprised at record wise will be Memphis. Schedule. They only see Wichita, SMU, Houston, and Temple once.

Also let me note. I think Wichita State is the best team in the conference right now. I just like UC's chances to handle the grind of going on the road in conference and getting wins. I think WSU is more likely to have a slip up or 2 against lesser teams just because it's a different level night after night. They'll still be great in conference and I think it's even money who wins the league between them and Cincinnati, with SMU having the only outside shot.

(12-15-2017 11:17 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Also let me note. I think Wichita State is the best team in the conference right now. I just like UC's chances to handle the grind of going on the road in conference and getting wins. I think WSU is more likely to have a slip up or 2 against lesser teams just because it's a different level night after night. They'll still be great in conference and I think it's even money who wins the league between them and Cincinnati, with SMU having the only outside shot.

LoL

Quote:Over the last five seasons, WSU owns the most true road wins (43-6) and highest true road winning percentage (.878) in the nation.

Teams like this don't "slip up". We will lose a few because we were off or the other team had a Super Bowl Sunday night. But any rational better would pick Cincy "slipping up" more at this point.


T


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(12-15-2017 11:30 AM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 11:17 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Also let me note. I think Wichita State is the best team in the conference right now. I just like UC's chances to handle the grind of going on the road in conference and getting wins. I think WSU is more likely to have a slip up or 2 against lesser teams just because it's a different level night after night. They'll still be great in conference and I think it's even money who wins the league between them and Cincinnati, with SMU having the only outside shot.

LoL

Quote:Over the last five seasons, WSU owns the most true road wins (43-6) and highest true road winning percentage (.878) in the nation.

Teams like this don't "slip up". We will lose a few because we were off or the other team had a Super Bowl Sunday night. But any rational better would pick Cincy "slipping up" more at this point.


T


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Both WSU and Cincinnati save their slipping-up for the post-season.

I am predicting UCONN will hire Lebo

(12-15-2017 11:30 AM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 11:17 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Also let me note. I think Wichita State is the best team in the conference right now. I just like UC's chances to handle the grind of going on the road in conference and getting wins. I think WSU is more likely to have a slip up or 2 against lesser teams just because it's a different level night after night. They'll still be great in conference and I think it's even money who wins the league between them and Cincinnati, with SMU having the only outside shot.

LoL

Quote:Over the last five seasons, WSU owns the most true road wins (43-6) and highest true road winning percentage (.878) in the nation.

Teams like this don't "slip up". We will lose a few because we were off or the other team had a Super Bowl Sunday night. But any rational better would pick Cincy "slipping up" more at this point.


T


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When your road games night after night are against sub 100, often sub 150 kenpom teams, even an off night is going to be a win when you are as good as wichita state. When even the worst teams you play on the road are 100-150 range and you have to play regular top 100 road teams a slip up suddenly can become a loss. I think Wichita will lose 3-4 games in the league this year. I think they are a top 10 team with a legit chance to make the final four. Laugh all you want, but that's reasonable. (BTW RPI forecast uses sagarin to project final records and has wichita's most likely outcome as having 3 or 4 more regular season losses).

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Wichita%20St..html

(12-15-2017 11:36 AM)Pony94 Wrote:  I am predicting UCONN will hire Lebo

Excellent. He will fit in very well with the Big Pee.

(12-15-2017 11:35 AM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 11:30 AM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 11:17 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Also let me note. I think Wichita State is the best team in the conference right now. I just like UC's chances to handle the grind of going on the road in conference and getting wins. I think WSU is more likely to have a slip up or 2 against lesser teams just because it's a different level night after night. They'll still be great in conference and I think it's even money who wins the league between them and Cincinnati, with SMU having the only outside shot.

LoL

Quote:Over the last five seasons, WSU owns the most true road wins (43-6) and highest true road winning percentage (.878) in the nation.

Teams like this don't "slip up". We will lose a few because we were off or the other team had a Super Bowl Sunday night. But any rational better would pick Cincy "slipping up" more at this point.


T


...

Both WSU and Cincinnati save their slipping-up for the post-season.

What’s your definition of “slip-up”? Not winning the national championship?

(12-15-2017 11:35 AM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 11:30 AM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 11:17 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Also let me note. I think Wichita State is the best team in the conference right now. I just like UC's chances to handle the grind of going on the road in conference and getting wins. I think WSU is more likely to have a slip up or 2 against lesser teams just because it's a different level night after night. They'll still be great in conference and I think it's even money who wins the league between them and Cincinnati, with SMU having the only outside shot.

LoL

Quote:Over the last five seasons, WSU owns the most true road wins (43-6) and highest true road winning percentage (.878) in the nation.

Teams like this don't "slip up". We will lose a few because we were off or the other team had a Super Bowl Sunday night. But any rational better would pick Cincy "slipping up" more at this point.


T


...

Both WSU and Cincinnati save their slipping-up for the post-season.

I wouldn't say that WSU has slipped up in the NCAA's under Marshall. Every tournament game I've watched has been maximum effort. Sometimes you just don't win. The selection committee however has certainly slipped up.


T


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(12-15-2017 11:55 AM)ShockerFever Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 11:35 AM)HuskyU Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 11:30 AM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 11:17 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Also let me note. I think Wichita State is the best team in the conference right now. I just like UC's chances to handle the grind of going on the road in conference and getting wins. I think WSU is more likely to have a slip up or 2 against lesser teams just because it's a different level night after night. They'll still be great in conference and I think it's even money who wins the league between them and Cincinnati, with SMU having the only outside shot.

LoL

Quote:Over the last five seasons, WSU owns the most true road wins (43-6) and highest true road winning percentage (.878) in the nation.

Teams like this don't "slip up". We will lose a few because we were off or the other team had a Super Bowl Sunday night. But any rational better would pick Cincy "slipping up" more at this point.


T


...

Both WSU and Cincinnati save their slipping-up for the post-season.

What’s your definition of “slip-up”? Not winning the national championship?

Exactly. All you can ask for out of a team is to give maximum effort which we've done in every post-season game I've watched under Marshall. We might not be the most talented but we never give up.

Wichita State has given up before. We did against OSU last year. I'm certain the practices that soon followed that game left an indelible mark on the team's psyche.


T


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Wichita State fans are so thinned skin it's insane. I have so much respect for that program. I went to Winthrop my freshman year of college when Marshall was there and have so much respect for him as a coach. I wanted UC to go after him after the Huggins fiasco. I thought he was a superstar waiting to happen. The Wichita State program was solid prior though it had fallen off a little, but he has it at an amazing place. I think Marshall is a top 5 coach in college basketball and think Wichita is a legit top ten team this year. It's just hilarious to me that if you don't think the Shockers are going to run the table in the AAC this year or think they aren't the no doubt, obvious conference champions Wichita State fans seem to think you're pissing all over them.

(12-15-2017 11:39 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 11:30 AM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 11:17 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Also let me note. I think Wichita State is the best team in the conference right now. I just like UC's chances to handle the grind of going on the road in conference and getting wins. I think WSU is more likely to have a slip up or 2 against lesser teams just because it's a different level night after night. They'll still be great in conference and I think it's even money who wins the league between them and Cincinnati, with SMU having the only outside shot.

LoL

Quote:Over the last five seasons, WSU owns the most true road wins (43-6) and highest true road winning percentage (.878) in the nation.

Teams like this don't "slip up". We will lose a few because we were off or the other team had a Super Bowl Sunday night. But any rational better would pick Cincy "slipping up" more at this point.


T


...

When your road games night after night are against sub 100, often sub 150 kenpom teams, even an off night is going to be a win when you are as good as wichita state. When even the worst teams you play on the road are 100-150 range and you have to play regular top 100 road teams a slip up suddenly can become a loss. I think Wichita will lose 3-4 games in the league this year. I think they are a top 10 team with a legit chance to make the final four. Laugh all you want, but that's reasonable. (BTW RPI forecast uses sagarin to project final records and has wichita's most likely outcome as having 3 or 4 more regular season losses).

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Wichita%20St..html

Saying you think the Shockers are the best team in the conference right now (without our 6'8 stud who's coming back soon) yet will finish behind your Bearcats in the season race isn't logical - especially when you consider the fact that we are the best road team in the country. If we lose more than one conference game at home I'll be very surprised. That means we lose 3-4 games on the road? Ok.

I think my preseason prediction was 3-4 losses in conference for the Shockers. But if we lose that much the Bearcats lose 4-5... and I'm being generous.

Cincy has the advantage of knowing the teams better than we do, but the teams also know them. We don't know the teams very well but they CERTAINLY don't know what it feels like to play against us which will be a huge advantage. Until you've been punched in the mouth by the Shockers, you just don't get it. Game film does not translate fully.

I know... I know... Cincy is tougher - rock fights and all that.

You'll see.


T


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(12-15-2017 12:12 PM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Wichita State fans are so thinned skin it's insane. I have so much respect for that program. I went to Winthrop my freshman year of college when Marshall was there and have so much respect for him as a coach. I wanted UC to go after him after the Huggins fiasco. I thought he was a superstar waiting to happen. The Wichita State program was solid prior though it had fallen off a little, but he has it at an amazing place. I think Marshall is a top 5 coach in college basketball and think Wichita is a legit top ten team this year. It's just hilarious to me that if you don't think the Shockers are going to run the table in the AAC this year or think they aren't the no doubt, obvious conference champions Wichita State fans seem to think you're pissing all over them.

It's not just us, it's the entire national media. Had we not performed on the road without McDuffie in the OOC, I would have tempered my expectations a bit. But now having won at Baylor and OSU without an integral part of our team... yeah... I'm pretty confident. I mean, we're #3 for cryin' out loud.

I don't know about thin-skinned, but I'm still peeved about the coaches picking us 2nd in the conference. It's honestly laughable. It's great bulletin board material for the coaching staff though so I sincerely thank them for that.


T


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(12-15-2017 12:16 PM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 11:39 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 11:30 AM)C0|db|00ded Wrote:  

(12-15-2017 11:17 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  Also let me note. I think Wichita State is the best team in the conference right now. I just like UC's chances to handle the grind of going on the road in conference and getting wins. I think WSU is more likely to have a slip up or 2 against lesser teams just because it's a different level night after night. They'll still be great in conference and I think it's even money who wins the league between them and Cincinnati, with SMU having the only outside shot.

LoL

Quote:Over the last five seasons, WSU owns the most true road wins (43-6) and highest true road winning percentage (.878) in the nation.

Teams like this don't "slip up". We will lose a few because we were off or the other team had a Super Bowl Sunday night. But any rational better would pick Cincy "slipping up" more at this point.


T


...

When your road games night after night are against sub 100, often sub 150 kenpom teams, even an off night is going to be a win when you are as good as wichita state. When even the worst teams you play on the road are 100-150 range and you have to play regular top 100 road teams a slip up suddenly can become a loss. I think Wichita will lose 3-4 games in the league this year. I think they are a top 10 team with a legit chance to make the final four. Laugh all you want, but that's reasonable. (BTW RPI forecast uses sagarin to project final records and has wichita's most likely outcome as having 3 or 4 more regular season losses).

http://www.rpiforecast.com/teams/Wichita%20St..html

Saying you think the Shockers are the best team in the conference right now (without our 6'8 stud who's coming back soon) yet will finish behind your Bearcats in the season race isn't logical - especially when you consider the fact that we are the best road team in the country. If we lose more than one conference game at home I'll be very surprised. That means we lose 3-4 games on the road? Ok.

I think my preseason prediction was 3-4 losses in conference for the Shockers. But if we lose that much the Bearcats lose 4-5... and I'm being generous.

Cincy has the advantage of knowing the teams better than we do, but the teams also know them. We don't know the teams very well but they CERTAINLY don't know what it feels like to play against us which will be a huge advantage. Until you've been punched in the mouth by the Shockers, you just don't get it. Game film does not translate fully.

I know... I know... Cincy is tougher - rock fights and all that.

You'll see.


T


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Maybe your reading comprehension isn't at a very high level, but I literally said I think both teams have about even odds to win the conference. I had them 1a and 1b... I think the odds are pretty high that they share the regular season title. Keep being thin skinned about anything that isn't "The Shockers are the Greatest Team in NCAA History!"