(12-09-2017 09:00 AM)waltgreenberg Wrote: WTF are we comparing ourselves to the Arkansas State situation? I don't see a single similarity, especially for a coach raising a young family. And why do you think it's "likely" that the Army, Navy, Notre Dame or Michigan job will open up after next season?
1. It's a case study of life at very bottom of food chain in FBS. we are in a far worse on field competitive position than Arkansas State was when they fired Steve Roberts. According to coaches hot seat, Arky st pays $800k, which puts it in Rice's quantum level in terms of football economics
2. in terms of those other jobs, it's just pure speculation and pattern recognition.
--Army just signed Monken to an extension, so that is unlikely to open
--Harbaugh is very well paid and went 0-3 against Sparty, Penn St, and Buckeyes
--Ken N at Navy looked hard at BYU last time and not hard to imagine BYU opening again
--Brian Kelly is always one slapped player away from being gone. Miracle in my mind that he survived the death of a student manager earlier in his tenure
--Calhoun at Air Force has been there a long time. If Army beats them again next year, you never know.
the bigger point, Walt, is that if you (or more importantly JK) believe it unimaginable or impossible that Coach B will leave after one year, then he is setting himself up for a hasty and therefore risky decision.
We can't have it both ways. We can't say "Yes, I'm very confident this thing is going to turn around quickly and substantially" and also say "Coach B gets Rice and he's going to raise his kids in Houston". It's an empirically and economically irrational and inconsistent world view.
A more plausible and happy (for us) scenario for him staying a long time is we go 6-6 or 7-5 every year, avoid the hugely embarrassing blowouts that characterized Bailiff, but don't quite do enough to move him to the top of the P5 wish lists.
I would rather go 14-0 next year and have him hired away before the bowl game than go 6-6 every year and stay for 20 years.