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Expectation for Mike
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Baconator Offline
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Post: #61
RE: Expectation for Mike
Good preparation is like pornography - you know it when you see it.
12-07-2017 01:44 PM
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75src Offline
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Post: #62
RE: Expectation for Mike
Rice was not competitive in the out of conference games but they could have won 5 more of the conference games if they had been better prepared (no turnovers and better play selection).

quote='tanqtonic' pid='14874975' dateline='1512669960']
(12-07-2017 11:30 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  let me put this another way:

if we lose to UNT or UTSA 38-14, how many posters can we expect here to say, "But at least we were well prepared"?

The vast majority of games Rice engaged in were not games where it was a *game* until the end (i.e. a winning game). There were only 2 or 3 games (the UTEP win included) in which we had not lost in the first quarter. Losing games in the first quarter to non- Top 25 teams would be a hallmark of not being prepared.

The top 25 team we played (and lost in the quarter to) was characterized by the infamous first two offensive series. Again, a hallmark of not being prepared.
[/quote]
12-07-2017 01:53 PM
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Post: #63
RE: Expectation for Mike
(12-07-2017 11:30 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  let me put this another way:
if we lose to UNT or UTSA 38-14, how many posters can we expect here to say, "But at least we were well prepared"?

I cannot imagine a scenario in which we would both be well prepared and lose 38-14 to UNT or UTSA. They're not good enough to beat us that badly unless we make a lot of silly mistakes and/or unforced errors.
12-07-2017 02:26 PM
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Post: #64
RE: Expectation for Mike
(12-07-2017 01:12 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 01:07 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 11:38 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  A well-prepared team will not go 2-11 against next year's schedule. "Well-prepared" and "2-11" are mutually exclusive in this instance.

Fair enough point. The first 3 or 4 games are going to be tough, though.

No question, but if we can at least demonstrate some level of competitiveness in those first 4 games, the final 9 games are definitely winnable.

I think you two mean games 2-5. First game is against Prairie View.
12-07-2017 02:35 PM
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Post: #65
RE: Expectation for Mike
(12-07-2017 02:35 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 01:12 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 01:07 PM)tanqtonic Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 11:38 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  A well-prepared team will not go 2-11 against next year's schedule. "Well-prepared" and "2-11" are mutually exclusive in this instance.

Fair enough point. The first 3 or 4 games are going to be tough, though.

No question, but if we can at least demonstrate some level of competitiveness in those first 4 games, the final 9 games are definitely winnable.

I think you two mean games 2-5. First game is against Prairie View.

If we lose that one the honeymoon is over.
12-07-2017 02:53 PM
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Post: #66
RE: Expectation for Mike
(12-07-2017 01:44 PM)Baconator Wrote:  Good preparation is like pornography - you know it when you see it.

Agreed

(12-07-2017 11:30 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  let me put this another way:
if we lose to UNT or UTSA 38-14, how many posters can we expect here to say, "But at least we were well prepared"?

If UNT or UTSA are top 50 teams for whatever reason, I think it entirely possible that we be well prepared and still lose. I don't think many of us expect that they will be, thus the 'mutually exclusive' sorts of comments... but if it happens, then so be it.

The expectation based on history is that much of CUSA will not be better than top 100... whether by talent or preparation or combination thereof is immaterial to us.

Based on the talent we've seen relative to those teams and the apparent lack of preparation relative to those peers, most of us believe that the same talent, prepared well and with a scheme well suited to that talent will be better than top 100... thus likely 5+ wins.
12-07-2017 03:10 PM
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owl95 Offline
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Post: #67
RE: Expectation for Mike
I'll put down 6-7 wins next year given the schedule.
12-07-2017 03:23 PM
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Post: #68
RE: Expectation for Mike
If we put the same kind of bumbling, stumbling, sloppy, ill-disciplined team on the field next year, I will definitely say that they are poorly prepared. But I don't think we will. And I don't think there's enough talent in CUSA to keep a well-prepared team from winning at least half, and most likely a majority, of its conference games. Unless there is some huge transfusion of talent into the league next year, I don't see how a well-coached and well-prepared team can fare poorly. I just don't. We did not fare well this year, but that's because we were neither well-coached nor well-prepared.

I would not expect a well-prepared Rice team to lose 38-14 to UNT, UTSA, or anyone else in CUSA. It could happen, of course, but I don't think it's likely.

The variable that I think we are missing here is that I'm not sure some of us realize just how poorly prepared recent Rice teams have been.
12-07-2017 03:40 PM
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Post: #69
RE: Expectation for Mike
When a new coach is hired, and his first season reflects a massive turnaround, it typically is due to one of two factors:

1. The previous staff had recruited a ton of talent but had underutilized that talent (think: Sherman to Sumlin at Texas A&M / DeRuyter to Tedford at Fresno State); or,

2. The new coach is able to bring in many JC players to boost the talent level with experienced athletes (think: Bill Clark [not a new coach, but almost a new program] at UAB).

Based on my observation, outside of Cephus and Fox, the team is not loaded with a bushel full of untapped talent. And, Rice is not going to bring in a large number of JC players.

The factor that makes it somewhat easier for Rice is the relatively poor level of football in C-USA. However, those pointing out that this conference is bad might be ignoring the fact that our opponents also will be trying to improve. This is not a static situation in which Rice will be playing 2017 teams. That ship has sailed, and it is unlikely that anyone on this board could tell right now how good any specific team will be in 2018.

For those reasons, I believe that it is more likely for Rice to be 4-9, as opposed to 7-6, or even 8-5.
12-07-2017 04:02 PM
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Post: #70
RE: Expectation for Mike
(12-07-2017 04:02 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  When a new coach is hired, and his first season reflects a massive turnaround, it typically is due to one of two factors:

1. The previous staff had recruited a ton of talent but had underutilized that talent (think: Sherman to Sumlin at Texas A&M / DeRuyter to Tedford at Fresno State); or,

2. The new coach is able to bring in many JC players to boost the talent level with experienced athletes (think: Bill Clark [not a new coach, but almost a new program] at UAB).

Based on my observation, outside of Cephus and Fox, the team is not loaded with a bushel full of untapped talent. And, Rice is not going to bring in a large number of JC players.

The factor that makes it somewhat easier for Rice is the relatively poor level of football in C-USA. However, those pointing out that this conference is bad might be ignoring the fact that our opponents also will be trying to improve. This is not a static situation in which Rice will be playing 2017 teams. That ship has sailed, and it is unlikely that anyone on this board could tell right now how good any specific team will be in 2018.

For those reasons, I believe that it is more likely for Rice to be 4-9, as opposed to 7-6, or even 8-5.

Sorry, but I disagree with your "typically" comment. See Todd Graham at Rice, Harbaugh at Stanford, 49ers and Michigan, and the list goes on. A high energy, high disciplined head coach can turnaround a team in one year...at any level of play.
12-07-2017 04:06 PM
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Post: #71
RE: Expectation for Mike
(12-07-2017 04:06 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 04:02 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  When a new coach is hired, and his first season reflects a massive turnaround, it typically is due to one of two factors:

1. The previous staff had recruited a ton of talent but had underutilized that talent (think: Sherman to Sumlin at Texas A&M / DeRuyter to Tedford at Fresno State); or,

2. The new coach is able to bring in many JC players to boost the talent level with experienced athletes (think: Bill Clark [not a new coach, but almost a new program] at UAB).

Based on my observation, outside of Cephus and Fox, the team is not loaded with a bushel full of untapped talent. And, Rice is not going to bring in a large number of JC players.

The factor that makes it somewhat easier for Rice is the relatively poor level of football in C-USA. However, those pointing out that this conference is bad might be ignoring the fact that our opponents also will be trying to improve. This is not a static situation in which Rice will be playing 2017 teams. That ship has sailed, and it is unlikely that anyone on this board could tell right now how good any specific team will be in 2018.

For those reasons, I believe that it is more likely for Rice to be 4-9, as opposed to 7-6, or even 8-5.

Sorry, but I disagree with your "typically" comment. See Todd Graham at Rice, Harbaugh at Stanford, 49ers and Michigan, and the list goes on. A high energy, high disciplined head coach can turnaround a team in one year...at any level of play.

Jeff Monken is a “high energy, high discipline” head coach and has really turned that Army program around.

But in 2014 and 2015, they had a lot of “close but no cigar” games.

Look, I want to win as bad as anyone, but I think some are setting themselves up for disappointment in year 1.

Year 1->2 is where I’d expect the biggest leap.
12-07-2017 04:12 PM
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Post: #72
RE: Expectation for Mike
(12-07-2017 04:02 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  When a new coach is hired, and his first season reflects a massive turnaround, it typically is due to one of two factors:

1. The previous staff had recruited a ton of talent but had underutilized that talent (think: Sherman to Sumlin at Texas A&M / DeRuyter to Tedford at Fresno State); or,

2. The new coach is able to bring in many JC players to boost the talent level with experienced athletes (think: Bill Clark [not a new coach, but almost a new program] at UAB).

Based on my observation, outside of Cephus and Fox, the team is not loaded with a bushel full of untapped talent. And, Rice is not going to bring in a large number of JC players.

The factor that makes it somewhat easier for Rice is the relatively poor level of football in C-USA. However, those pointing out that this conference is bad might be ignoring the fact that our opponents also will be trying to improve. This is not a static situation in which Rice will be playing 2017 teams. That ship has sailed, and it is unlikely that anyone on this board could tell right now how good any specific team will be in 2018.

For those reasons, I believe that it is more likely for Rice to be 4-9, as opposed to 7-6, or even 8-5.

+1. I expect much better play, but I believe the record will be closer to what you are saying than others.
12-07-2017 04:14 PM
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Post: #73
RE: Expectation for Mike
(12-07-2017 04:06 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 04:02 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  When a new coach is hired, and his first season reflects a massive turnaround, it typically is due to one of two factors:

1. The previous staff had recruited a ton of talent but had underutilized that talent (think: Sherman to Sumlin at Texas A&M / DeRuyter to Tedford at Fresno State); or,

2. The new coach is able to bring in many JC players to boost the talent level with experienced athletes (think: Bill Clark [not a new coach, but almost a new program] at UAB).

Based on my observation, outside of Cephus and Fox, the team is not loaded with a bushel full of untapped talent. And, Rice is not going to bring in a large number of JC players.

The factor that makes it somewhat easier for Rice is the relatively poor level of football in C-USA. However, those pointing out that this conference is bad might be ignoring the fact that our opponents also will be trying to improve. This is not a static situation in which Rice will be playing 2017 teams. That ship has sailed, and it is unlikely that anyone on this board could tell right now how good any specific team will be in 2018.

For those reasons, I believe that it is more likely for Rice to be 4-9, as opposed to 7-6, or even 8-5.

Sorry, but I disagree with your "typically" comment. See Todd Graham at Rice, Harbaugh at Stanford, 49ers and Michigan, and the list goes on. A high energy, high disciplined head coach can turnaround a team in one year...at any level of play.

Stanford went 4-8 in Harbaugh's first year. 5-7 in his second.
12-07-2017 04:17 PM
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Post: #74
RE: Expectation for Mike
(12-07-2017 04:12 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 04:06 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 04:02 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  When a new coach is hired, and his first season reflects a massive turnaround, it typically is due to one of two factors:

1. The previous staff had recruited a ton of talent but had underutilized that talent (think: Sherman to Sumlin at Texas A&M / DeRuyter to Tedford at Fresno State); or,

2. The new coach is able to bring in many JC players to boost the talent level with experienced athletes (think: Bill Clark [not a new coach, but almost a new program] at UAB).

Based on my observation, outside of Cephus and Fox, the team is not loaded with a bushel full of untapped talent. And, Rice is not going to bring in a large number of JC players.

The factor that makes it somewhat easier for Rice is the relatively poor level of football in C-USA. However, those pointing out that this conference is bad might be ignoring the fact that our opponents also will be trying to improve. This is not a static situation in which Rice will be playing 2017 teams. That ship has sailed, and it is unlikely that anyone on this board could tell right now how good any specific team will be in 2018.

For those reasons, I believe that it is more likely for Rice to be 4-9, as opposed to 7-6, or even 8-5.

Sorry, but I disagree with your "typically" comment. See Todd Graham at Rice, Harbaugh at Stanford, 49ers and Michigan, and the list goes on. A high energy, high disciplined head coach can turnaround a team in one year...at any level of play.

Jeff Monken is a “high energy, high discipline” head coach and has really turned that Army program around.

But in 2014 and 2015, they had a lot of “close but no cigar” games.

Look, I want to win as bad as anyone, but I think some are setting themselves up for disappointment in year 1.

Year 1->2 is where I’d expect the biggest leap.

Have to give him a chance to get some talent in here. Our recruiting has dropped to where we have kids choosing Texas state over us. Coaching can get some improved performance but you don’t win 9 games with guys who only had us as a D1 offer.
12-07-2017 04:17 PM
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Post: #75
RE: Expectation for Mike
(12-07-2017 04:17 PM)d1owls4life Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 04:06 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 04:02 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  When a new coach is hired, and his first season reflects a massive turnaround, it typically is due to one of two factors:

1. The previous staff had recruited a ton of talent but had underutilized that talent (think: Sherman to Sumlin at Texas A&M / DeRuyter to Tedford at Fresno State); or,

2. The new coach is able to bring in many JC players to boost the talent level with experienced athletes (think: Bill Clark [not a new coach, but almost a new program] at UAB).

Based on my observation, outside of Cephus and Fox, the team is not loaded with a bushel full of untapped talent. And, Rice is not going to bring in a large number of JC players.

The factor that makes it somewhat easier for Rice is the relatively poor level of football in C-USA. However, those pointing out that this conference is bad might be ignoring the fact that our opponents also will be trying to improve. This is not a static situation in which Rice will be playing 2017 teams. That ship has sailed, and it is unlikely that anyone on this board could tell right now how good any specific team will be in 2018.

For those reasons, I believe that it is more likely for Rice to be 4-9, as opposed to 7-6, or even 8-5.

Sorry, but I disagree with your "typically" comment. See Todd Graham at Rice, Harbaugh at Stanford, 49ers and Michigan, and the list goes on. A high energy, high disciplined head coach can turnaround a team in one year...at any level of play.

Stanford went 4-8 in Harbaugh's first year. 5-7 in his second.

Don’t go throwing facts around!
12-07-2017 04:18 PM
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Post: #76
RE: Expectation for Mike
(12-07-2017 04:18 PM)cr11owl Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 04:17 PM)d1owls4life Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 04:06 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 04:02 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  When a new coach is hired, and his first season reflects a massive turnaround, it typically is due to one of two factors:

1. The previous staff had recruited a ton of talent but had underutilized that talent (think: Sherman to Sumlin at Texas A&M / DeRuyter to Tedford at Fresno State); or,

2. The new coach is able to bring in many JC players to boost the talent level with experienced athletes (think: Bill Clark [not a new coach, but almost a new program] at UAB).

Based on my observation, outside of Cephus and Fox, the team is not loaded with a bushel full of untapped talent. And, Rice is not going to bring in a large number of JC players.

The factor that makes it somewhat easier for Rice is the relatively poor level of football in C-USA. However, those pointing out that this conference is bad might be ignoring the fact that our opponents also will be trying to improve. This is not a static situation in which Rice will be playing 2017 teams. That ship has sailed, and it is unlikely that anyone on this board could tell right now how good any specific team will be in 2018.

For those reasons, I believe that it is more likely for Rice to be 4-9, as opposed to 7-6, or even 8-5.

Sorry, but I disagree with your "typically" comment. See Todd Graham at Rice, Harbaugh at Stanford, 49ers and Michigan, and the list goes on. A high energy, high disciplined head coach can turnaround a team in one year...at any level of play.

Stanford went 4-8 in Harbaugh's first year. 5-7 in his second.

Don’t go throwing facts around!

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12-07-2017 04:18 PM
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Post: #77
RE: Expectation for Mike
(12-07-2017 04:06 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 04:02 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  When a new coach is hired, and his first season reflects a massive turnaround, it typically is due to one of two factors:

1. The previous staff had recruited a ton of talent but had underutilized that talent (think: Sherman to Sumlin at Texas A&M / DeRuyter to Tedford at Fresno State); or,

2. The new coach is able to bring in many JC players to boost the talent level with experienced athletes (think: Bill Clark [not a new coach, but almost a new program] at UAB).

Based on my observation, outside of Cephus and Fox, the team is not loaded with a bushel full of untapped talent. And, Rice is not going to bring in a large number of JC players.

The factor that makes it somewhat easier for Rice is the relatively poor level of football in C-USA. However, those pointing out that this conference is bad might be ignoring the fact that our opponents also will be trying to improve. This is not a static situation in which Rice will be playing 2017 teams. That ship has sailed, and it is unlikely that anyone on this board could tell right now how good any specific team will be in 2018.

For those reasons, I believe that it is more likely for Rice to be 4-9, as opposed to 7-6, or even 8-5.

Sorry, but I disagree with your "typically" comment. See Todd Graham at Rice, Harbaugh at Stanford, 49ers and Michigan, and the list goes on. A high energy, high disciplined head coach can turnaround a team in one year...at any level of play.

Everyone believed that Hoke recruited exceptionally well at Michigan before Harbaugh took over - that fits with category 1; additionally, Stanford was 4-8 and 5-7 in his first two seasons there - hardly a "massive" turnaround. I'll give you that Graham did not fit into either category.
12-07-2017 04:20 PM
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Post: #78
RE: Expectation for Mike
(12-07-2017 04:02 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  When a new coach is hired, and his first season reflects a massive turnaround, it typically is due to one of two factors:
1. The previous staff had recruited a ton of talent but had underutilized that talent (think: Sherman to Sumlin at Texas A&M / DeRuyter to Tedford at Fresno State); or,
2. The new coach is able to bring in many JC players to boost the talent level with experienced athletes (think: Bill Clark [not a new coach, but almost a new program] at UAB).
Based on my observation, outside of Cephus and Fox, the team is not loaded with a bushel full of untapped talent. And, Rice is not going to bring in a large number of JC players.
The factor that makes it somewhat easier for Rice is the relatively poor level of football in C-USA. However, those pointing out that this conference is bad might be ignoring the fact that our opponents also will be trying to improve. This is not a static situation in which Rice will be playing 2017 teams. That ship has sailed, and it is unlikely that anyone on this board could tell right now how good any specific team will be in 2018.
For those reasons, I believe that it is more likely for Rice to be 4-9, as opposed to 7-6, or even 8-5.

First, 4-9 would be a considerable improvement, particularly if the team is competitive in the losses, or at least the CUSA losses.

Second, from what I saw on TV, this team was so disorganized and sloppy that I think it would be difficult to assess what the true talent level was. I doubt very seriously that the quarterback position can be handled next year as poorly as it was this year, and any measurable improvement there would have a significant impact across the board.

Third, right now we have no idea what kind of impact Bloomgren might have on recruiting. He clearly understands the importance, and he and the guys mentioned for his staff clearly have existing contacts with players who are better than what Rice has recruited in the recent past. It's not at all inconceivable that he could land a couple of 3*s or even a 4* or two with the ability to play right away, and that could alter the calculus significantly. Clearly, that may not happen. Just as clearly, it might.

Fourth, remember when I predicted 3-9 and everyone told me I was crazy, that there was no way we could lose that many? I don't think this team had 1-11 talent, it's just where they ended up with the coaching and preparation they got. If all of you go back to what you were expecting last year, then 6, 7, or 8 wins is not far off from that.

It will be wait and see time for the next twelve months. But I cannot believe a guy who has been successful at Stanford, and the kind of staff he can put together, will not be able to get substantially more out of this talent than the last regime did. Playing against essentially the Little Sisters of the Poor for a majority of our schedule, we should win a bunch of games, unless we play like the Dead Sisters of the Poor.
12-07-2017 04:30 PM
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Post: #79
RE: Expectation for Mike
(12-07-2017 04:17 PM)d1owls4life Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 04:06 PM)waltgreenberg Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 04:02 PM)WRCisforgotten79 Wrote:  When a new coach is hired, and his first season reflects a massive turnaround, it typically is due to one of two factors:

1. The previous staff had recruited a ton of talent but had underutilized that talent (think: Sherman to Sumlin at Texas A&M / DeRuyter to Tedford at Fresno State); or,

2. The new coach is able to bring in many JC players to boost the talent level with experienced athletes (think: Bill Clark [not a new coach, but almost a new program] at UAB).

Based on my observation, outside of Cephus and Fox, the team is not loaded with a bushel full of untapped talent. And, Rice is not going to bring in a large number of JC players.

The factor that makes it somewhat easier for Rice is the relatively poor level of football in C-USA. However, those pointing out that this conference is bad might be ignoring the fact that our opponents also will be trying to improve. This is not a static situation in which Rice will be playing 2017 teams. That ship has sailed, and it is unlikely that anyone on this board could tell right now how good any specific team will be in 2018.

For those reasons, I believe that it is more likely for Rice to be 4-9, as opposed to 7-6, or even 8-5.

Sorry, but I disagree with your "typically" comment. See Todd Graham at Rice, Harbaugh at Stanford, 49ers and Michigan, and the list goes on. A high energy, high disciplined head coach can turnaround a team in one year...at any level of play.

Stanford went 4-8 in Harbaugh's first year. 5-7 in his second.

They also beat USC. Which is worth more than a 7-8 win season in year 1 IMO.

Nothing said holy **** like that win.
12-07-2017 04:40 PM
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Post: #80
RE: Expectation for Mike
(12-07-2017 12:12 PM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 12:08 PM)Antarius Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 12:05 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  In any case, it will be interesting to hear what is said on this board as the season(s) move along. I certainly hope this guy is the savior.

Your words. Just needs to be noted, because someone criticizes something a year later, I fully expect them to be strawmanned over this.

We hope and expect him to not be an incompetent. That's it for now.

+1. For the record, nobody characterized Bloomgren as the savior. Wish there was a way to index a post for future reference.

I knew it (success for Bloomgren) when Optimistic Owl made clear he didn’t expect much
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2017 05:52 PM by ranfin.)
12-07-2017 04:57 PM
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