(12-07-2017 02:36 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-07-2017 01:03 AM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 04:42 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  I said TV money (which is true). Yes, there are other conference distributions for football as you've noted, but there are also the Big East's own NCAA Tournament distributions that are very high and only split among 10 schools. Regardless, the Big East is earning that all of that revenue without the expense of FBS football. The gap on the profit/loss and ROI is even wider.

Big East does not share tournament money equally. More eat what you kill. See:

http://www.providencejournal.com/sports/...ney-makers

UConn would need to get a lot stronger before moving if it expected an average share of Big East hoops tourney revenue from the get go.

And if UConn got a lot stronger in the American, then that's less reason to leave the American.

Regardless, UConn got $10M from the American last year, in part due to exit fees. Big East schools averaged school less than $7M from that conference last year. The next American TV deal will be the tale of the tape. Your whole premise is flawed.

This is not rocket science. UConn lost it's John Wooden. They are now dealing with their (slightly better) version of Larry Farmer - a former player who had early success and now is struggling.

Their basketball issues are 100% coaching.

They have also had some buzzard luck on the injury front as well.

We had ton a of injuries last year. Our 3rd best player and a former 5* recruit is mostly likely out for the season again...combine that with a bad coach. We are a mess. I really don't think the big east would take us back. Unless we can prove that we can dominate the aac.


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(12-06-2017 03:43 PM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 03:39 PM)CougarRed Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 03:29 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  UConn is between a rock and a hard place. As long as there is even a tiny sliver of hope for a P5 invite down the road, then it simply cannot leave the AAC. P5 membership is based on football and independence simply isn't realistically viable for a school like UConn.

However, the money is simple: the Big East makes more TV money just based on basketball than the AAC (and every other G5 conference) makes on football and basketball *combined*. We can argue all day about whether the AAC will get a better contract in a few years and yada yada yada... but the fact is that the Big East completely CRUSHES the G5 conferences when it comes to TV money, which is essentially the entire crux of the conference realignment game. I

Someone hasn't been paying attention.

UConn (along with Cincy and USF) have been augmenting their American TV money with exit fees from Louisville, Syracuse, West Va, Pitt etc. Considering exit fee surplus combined with TV money, and UConn would have made LESS MONEY in the Big East.

And that's before you get to the $10M exit fee cost UConn would owe if they left.

So it really DOES matter what the next American TV contract looks like. And it matters how this Wichita State experiment works out in terms of getting more NCAA tournament bids for the American.

Didn't the exit fees finish/conclude last year? Didn't Syracuse/Pittsburgh/West Virginia/etc. all pay less than what the predetermined exit fees were due to settlement when they left the Big East?

If the exit fees haven't run out, they will soon. Syracuse, Pitt and WVU all paid additional exit fees beyond what was required in order to leave early. IIRC, Syracuse paid $2.5 million to leave early and Pitt paid a similar number. WVU paid much more because they provided no notice at all.

The AAC is still carrying quite a few NCAA tournament credits earned by former Big East members. This year's payout from the NCAA will still include the results of the 2012 and 2013 NCAA tournament when former members earned 12 and 14 credits respectively. Next's year's payout will still include the 2013 Final Four runs of Syracuse and Louisville. The combined payout for the two years will be around $10 million. After that, though, nada.

I'd love to see UConn go independent and Big East in other sports

(12-07-2017 02:34 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 09:11 PM)Bogg Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 08:51 PM)Tigersmoke4 Wrote:  No it's irrelevant because they aren't with ESPN.

Riiiiiiiight.......

Anyway, at a certain point UConn's going to have to acknowledge that the money hose has been turned off, ESPN's discouraging any further expansion, and decide if they want to make the AAC their long-term home. That's a much different question than the "where should we ride out the next few years until a spot opens up" question they thought they were faced with four to five years ago.

Thats really a conference wide question. IF all the teams are going to be here for a while and no real change is coming--and a decent paycheck is there to be had--then you could see moves made to make basketball better and maybe improve travel--or maybe to bring in BYU or Army. If the next TV deal is a bust--then another question becomes relevant--If there is no TV money in it---is there really any reason for a large footprint G5 league? Could be lots and lots of change depending on the answer to that question.

Exactly. IF the next AAC contract is as shytty as many on this board believe it will be, then there is no reason for this conference. Schools will move to another G conference that is closer to home for savings in travel expense, more ticket revenue from traveling fan bases and local interest. Perhaps even the other G conferences would get a slight bump in media with a couple of the AAC schools back in the fold.

(12-07-2017 07:27 AM)Huskypride Wrote:  We had ton a of injuries last year. Our 3rd best player and a former 5* recruit is mostly likely out for the season again...combine that with a bad coach. We are a mess. I really don't think the big east would take us back. Unless we can prove that we can dominate the aac.

We would take you back in a hot minute. UConn is blood to the Big East, whether you are up or down.

Greenberg is a douche

(12-07-2017 02:34 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  Thats really a conference wide question. IF all the teams are going to be here for a while and no real change is coming--and a decent paycheck is there to be had--then you could see moves made to make basketball better and maybe improve travel--or maybe to bring in BYU or Army. If the next TV deal is a bust--then another question becomes relevant--If there is no TV money in it---is there really any reason for a large footprint G5 league? Could be lots and lots of change depending on the answer to that question.

Eh, the American is still a pretty decent conference. I don't see a mass jumping-ship to join up with other G5 schools in various regions. I could see, though, some of the westernmost AAC teams and the easternmost MW teams aligning with some left behind Big 12 programs if things break in that direction.

(12-07-2017 07:27 AM)Huskypride Wrote:  We had ton a of injuries last year. Our 3rd best player and a former 5* recruit is mostly likely out for the season again...combine that with a bad coach. We are a mess. I really don't think the big east would take us back. Unless we can prove that we can dominate the aac.

Big East would take UConn. CT travels too well to MSG, and the BE needs to keep ticket sales healthy to hold on to the tournament in NY. Couple that with the shared history, basketball pedigree, and the women's program (people like to laugh, but for a conference that bills itself as basketball-centric, having the women winning regular titles on that side helps their image) and UConn has a standing invite.

There is, at present, no realistic path to a power conference-membership for UConn. The ACC has turned them down repeatedly. The B1G has never really seriously considered them for membership. The Big 12 already turned them down. The SEC and PAC are not realistic possibilities. At present, UConn is in a Southern-focused, mid-major (by popular perception) conference. It's nearest conference member is, I believe, over 220 miles away. Since it comes down to football, will solid football recruits from Texas and Florida decide to turn away from Houston, SMU, UCF and USF, and head up north to play for UConn? Would the strong Northeast recruits turn away from P5 members in Penn State, Pittsburgh, Maryland, Syracuse, Rutgers and Boston College and go to UConn? UConn is currently behind a majority of the other American football programs.

Most importantly, will UConn once again trust ESPN to make the best decision for them? Time will tell, I guess.

(12-07-2017 07:27 AM)Huskypride Wrote:  I really don't think the big east would take us back. Unless we can prove that we can dominate the aac.

I think you're being too hard on yourself. The Big East can kiss Syracuse goodbye for good, but it can still strengthen its grip in the northeast with UConn hoops. More specifically, you put UConn back onto the schedule of these northeastern metropolitan schools, and you disrupt whatever foundational work the ACC and Big Ten have been trying to build in the region.

I'm never going to declare a winner for NYC and the metro area's school of choice, but, UConn, when it played other area schools, may have been a top contender like others. The Big East has much to gain putting that back into its collection.

(12-07-2017 11:27 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  

(12-07-2017 07:27 AM)Huskypride Wrote:  I really don't think the big east would take us back. Unless we can prove that we can dominate the aac.

I think you're being too hard on yourself. The Big East can kiss Syracuse goodbye for good, but it can still strengthen its grip in the northeast with UConn hoops. More specifically, you put UConn back onto the schedule of these northeastern metropolitan schools, and you disrupt whatever foundational work the ACC and Big Ten have been trying to build in the region.

I'm never going to declare a winner for NYC and the metro area's school of choice, but, UConn, when it played other area schools, may have been a top contender like others. The Big East has much to gain putting that back into its collection.

Let's just say there's a reason that Rothstein and McMurphy have continually floated the idea of a UConn-Big East reunion in the past 12 months (as has ESPN this week). The Big East would absolutely take UConn back today in a heartbeat if they wanted back in. The only dilemma would be what to do with football (as the AAC would surely look to remove them as a football-only member).

(12-07-2017 11:34 AM)GoldenWarrior11 Wrote:  Let's just say there's a reason that Rothstein and McMurphy have continually floated the idea of a UConn-Big East reunion in the past 12 months (as has ESPN this week). The Big East would absolutely take UConn back today in a heartbeat if they wanted back in. The only dilemma would be what to do with football (as the AAC would surely look to remove them as a football-only member).

Yeah, I suspect the Big East really does want them back, and may be the only eastern program it would take, and wants UConn to know it and think about it. Often.

Football is a hurdle. I still think the AAC favored share money is a component, too. UConn moving on won't just hurt because of football, but that nest egg shrivels up, too. I think one can be stomached, but not both. Not right now, at least.

(12-07-2017 11:47 AM)The Cutter of Bish Wrote:  Football is a hurdle. I still think the AAC favored share money is a component, too. UConn moving on won't just hurt because of football, but that nest egg shrivels up, too. I think one can be stomached, but not both. Not right now, at least.

Is this the exit fee pot you're referring to? Because that was a one-time money pile that's just about gone no matter what UConn does. They don't currently have any sort of sweetheart deal with the AAC that promises them an outsized share of revenue on a permanent basis.

(12-06-2017 04:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 03:29 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  UConn is between a rock and a hard place. As long as there is even a tiny sliver of hope for a P5 invite down the road, then it simply cannot leave the AAC. P5 membership is based on football and independence simply isn't realistically viable for a school like UConn.

Who says UConn football would have to go independent? They could be football-only in the AAC or basketball-only in the Big East.

No way would the AAC kick UConn football out. We already have the precedent of Wichita State being no football.

Yeah, I'm biased, I'd love to have UConn back in the Big East. But I also know that they have to put their football interests first. I think they could, and still play Big East hoops.

You're going to have to explain why the AAC would keep UConn in as a football only. I see no motivation for the AAC to hold onto that part.

(12-07-2017 11:54 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 04:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 03:29 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  UConn is between a rock and a hard place. As long as there is even a tiny sliver of hope for a P5 invite down the road, then it simply cannot leave the AAC. P5 membership is based on football and independence simply isn't realistically viable for a school like UConn.

Who says UConn football would have to go independent? They could be football-only in the AAC or basketball-only in the Big East.

No way would the AAC kick UConn football out. We already have the precedent of Wichita State being no football.

Yeah, I'm biased, I'd love to have UConn back in the Big East. But I also know that they have to put their football interests first. I think they could, and still play Big East hoops.

You're going to have to explain why the AAC would keep UConn in as a football only. I see no motivation for the AAC to hold onto that part.

What are the replacement options?

(12-07-2017 11:54 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 04:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 03:29 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  UConn is between a rock and a hard place. As long as there is even a tiny sliver of hope for a P5 invite down the road, then it simply cannot leave the AAC. P5 membership is based on football and independence simply isn't realistically viable for a school like UConn.

Who says UConn football would have to go independent? They could be football-only in the AAC or basketball-only in the Big East.

No way would the AAC kick UConn football out. We already have the precedent of Wichita State being no football.

Yeah, I'm biased, I'd love to have UConn back in the Big East. But I also know that they have to put their football interests first. I think they could, and still play Big East hoops.

You're going to have to explain why the AAC would keep UConn in as a football only. I see no motivation for the AAC to hold onto that part.

Who would be number 14? Do they call up Marshall or Southern Miss?

(12-06-2017 04:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 03:29 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  UConn is between a rock and a hard place. As long as there is even a tiny sliver of hope for a P5 invite down the road, then it simply cannot leave the AAC. P5 membership is based on football and independence simply isn't realistically viable for a school like UConn.

Who says UConn football would have to go independent? They could be football-only in the AAC or basketball-only in the Big East.

No way would the AAC kick UConn football out. We already have the precedent of Wichita State being no football.

Yeah, I'm biased, I'd love to have UConn back in the Big East. But I also know that they have to put their football interests first. I think they could, and still play Big East hoops.

I don't believe basketball-only is an option under current NCAA rules. You can be FBS football-only if the conference you play basketball in doesn't sponsor FBS football.

(12-07-2017 12:07 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 04:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 03:29 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  UConn is between a rock and a hard place. As long as there is even a tiny sliver of hope for a P5 invite down the road, then it simply cannot leave the AAC. P5 membership is based on football and independence simply isn't realistically viable for a school like UConn.

Who says UConn football would have to go independent? They could be football-only in the AAC or basketball-only in the Big East.

No way would the AAC kick UConn football out. We already have the precedent of Wichita State being no football.

Yeah, I'm biased, I'd love to have UConn back in the Big East. But I also know that they have to put their football interests first. I think they could, and still play Big East hoops.

I don't believe basketball-only is an option under current NCAA rules. You can be FBS football-only if the conference you play basketball in doesn't sponsor FBS football.

The NCAA considers the conference in which a school plays basketball as its home conference. However, I don't believe it requires the school to play any other sports in the conference. The NCAA does require minimum participation requirements by member schools as a group in a minimum number of sports, but the conference could meet those without its basketball-only member contributing to anything but basketball.

Having said that, I would guess that if UConn went to the Big East for basketball, it would want to do so for all sports that it offers that are also sponsored by the Big East. Travel is one of the biggest problems for UConn in the AAC.

If UConn did leave, but stay for football, the AAC should look at a school like VCU for basketball, as it would be a nice geographic bridge between ECU and Temple in its eastern pod.

(12-07-2017 11:57 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(12-07-2017 11:54 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 04:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 03:29 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  UConn is between a rock and a hard place. As long as there is even a tiny sliver of hope for a P5 invite down the road, then it simply cannot leave the AAC. P5 membership is based on football and independence simply isn't realistically viable for a school like UConn.

Who says UConn football would have to go independent? They could be football-only in the AAC or basketball-only in the Big East.

No way would the AAC kick UConn football out. We already have the precedent of Wichita State being no football.

Yeah, I'm biased, I'd love to have UConn back in the Big East. But I also know that they have to put their football interests first. I think they could, and still play Big East hoops.

You're going to have to explain why the AAC would keep UConn in as a football only. I see no motivation for the AAC to hold onto that part.

What are the replacement options?

DING DING DING! Exactly. There are no decent replacement options.

The AAC would let UConn remain even if some members complained at first. They aren't going to kick out the only flagship state university in the conference (which also happens to be one of the top 20 public universities in America). They aren't going to ditch a school from a state that is 1/3 in the NYC television market. They also aren't going to lop off the whole northeastern part of the conference footprint north of Pennsylvania. It would be a pride move by the AAC to ditch UConn football, but it would be a stupid move.

If the AAC thinks that Hattiesburg MS or Huntington WV help more with TV eyeballs than by keeping UConn, then have at it. Only a fool would believe that, though. Oh, and before you say that UMass could just replace UConn, remember that UMass men's basketball is worse, UMass women's basketball isn't even close to as good, and even if you consider the football programs about equal, the UMass television market is worse. UMass is in the Springfield MA television market (not the Boston market, and Boston also doesn't really follow UMass sports as it is 100 miles away, they just watch pro sports). The closest airport to UMass is Bradley International Airport in Connecticut. Add it all up and keeping UConn as a football only beats adding UMass, Southern Miss, Marshall, or anyone else.

(12-07-2017 11:57 AM)YNot Wrote:  

(12-07-2017 11:54 AM)stxrunner Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 04:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 03:29 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  UConn is between a rock and a hard place. As long as there is even a tiny sliver of hope for a P5 invite down the road, then it simply cannot leave the AAC. P5 membership is based on football and independence simply isn't realistically viable for a school like UConn.

Who says UConn football would have to go independent? They could be football-only in the AAC or basketball-only in the Big East.

No way would the AAC kick UConn football out. We already have the precedent of Wichita State being no football.

Yeah, I'm biased, I'd love to have UConn back in the Big East. But I also know that they have to put their football interests first. I think they could, and still play Big East hoops.

You're going to have to explain why the AAC would keep UConn in as a football only. I see no motivation for the AAC to hold onto that part.

What are the replacement options?

The AAC has poaching power over Conference USA as a general matter. Now, who knows whether they really want any of those schools, but the overall point is that UConn is certainly replaceable from a football perspective (as there are more markets in Texas and Florida that could be added for the AAC). It's basketball (both men's and women's) where UConn has value, so if they take those sports to the Big East, they're not really in that strong of a position for football. We have already seen this play out at a lower level with respect to UMass and the MAC - that league didn't see much value in having UMass for football if it wasn't going to bring its basketball program, so they cut ties entirely.

Maybe the AAC would see things differently than UConn, but I wouldn't count on it. This is certainly a very large risk factor from the UConn perspective.

(12-07-2017 12:07 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 04:41 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(12-06-2017 03:29 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  UConn is between a rock and a hard place. As long as there is even a tiny sliver of hope for a P5 invite down the road, then it simply cannot leave the AAC. P5 membership is based on football and independence simply isn't realistically viable for a school like UConn.

Who says UConn football would have to go independent? They could be football-only in the AAC or basketball-only in the Big East.

No way would the AAC kick UConn football out. We already have the precedent of Wichita State being no football.

Yeah, I'm biased, I'd love to have UConn back in the Big East. But I also know that they have to put their football interests first. I think they could, and still play Big East hoops.

I don't believe basketball-only is an option under current NCAA rules. You can be FBS football-only if the conference you play basketball in doesn't sponsor FBS football.

By basketball only, they mean all Olympic sports including hoop. So, UConn could be FBS football only in the AAC as the Big East doesn't sponsor FBS football.