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The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #61
RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
(12-05-2017 07:15 PM)temchugh Wrote:  For Coach Bailiff, there was a lot of discussion about who knew what when with respect to whether he would be successful at Rice. Some folks knew the day he was hired. Other folks know at the end of year two, five, ten, or eleven.

This is your chance to document the moment you "know" whether Coach Bloomgren will succeed or fail at Rice. I don't know today. I think that JK has a good track record with hires, so I'm optimistic, but I don't know. When I do know, I'll come back and post it here so that, in the following years, other can admire my foresight or laugh at my foolishness.

If you are optimistic/pessimistic; encouraged/discouraged you can post that elsewhere. But if you "know" that Bloomgren is a keeper or you "know" that we need to look elsewhere, please clearly document that knowledge here. Then in three, five, or ten years where everyone else has caught up to you, you can point back to this thread as proof that you knew it way back when.

First, I need to know how you define "succeed at Rice".

Clearly, it has to be better than Bailiff. So some bowls, an occasional 10 win season, an even more occasional conference championship - that will not be enough.

Therefore, let's say it (success at Rice) is a bowl every year, some P5 wins, some SigWins, a conference championship more often than not.

I doubt he gets it done. I hope he does, because we need that level of success NOW, but given the history of Rice football since 1912, just call me PessimisticOwl.

Hell, even John Heisman couldn't win here.
12-06-2017 10:15 PM
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mrbig Offline
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Post: #62
RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
(12-06-2017 09:14 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 09:05 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 08:48 PM)ExcitedOwl18 Wrote:  9 wins is a ridiculous expectation for next season. The reason Kiffin was able to turn things around so quickly is because he brought in half of his recruiting class from the MS JuCos and other questionable backgrounds...
Personally, I'd expect our turnaround to mirror that of UNT or UTSA. 5 or 6 wins next season, followed by a better season in 2019.
We are going to be incredibly thin on defense next year, especially at the linebacker position.

Couple of things we don't know--who he might move over there, and who he might recruit. Also, we don't know what impact S&C changes might have on injuries. Keep people healthy and depth is less of a problem. Also keep them fit and they can go longer.

I think Bailiff's teams played hard, but their preparation and execution were horrific. I really don't know how much difference preparation can make, but we just might be about to find out. I kind of feel about the 2017 like I felt about Hat's last team, that they majorly underperformed their talent level. I think we could see the same kind of turnaround next year.

Yeah, exactly. I feel like we could see a turnaround like we saw in '06. About 6 wins.

Some posters in the other thread were suggesting 8-9.

CUSA circa 2006 was much better than CUSA circa 2018. To me, that is the difference. Also, I am banking him on being a better coach than Todd Graham. And he gets 13 regular season games instead of the usual 12.
(This post was last modified: 12-06-2017 10:45 PM by mrbig.)
12-06-2017 10:39 PM
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Owl 69/70/75 Offline
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Post: #63
RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
(12-06-2017 10:15 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  First, I need to know how you define "succeed at Rice".
Clearly, it has to be better than Bailiff. So some bowls, an occasional 10 win season, an even more occasional conference championship - that will not be enough.
Therefore, let's say it (success at Rice) is a bowl every year, some P5 wins, some SigWins, a conference championship more often than not.
I doubt he gets it done. I hope he does, because we need that level of success NOW, but given the history of Rice football since 1912, just call me PessimisticOwl.
Hell, even John Heisman couldn't win here.

First, John Heisman wasn't really all that successful a football coach anywhere. He got the trophy named after him because he had a position at the NY Athletic Club.

I would say, first, a cumulative record over .500, with more winning seasons than losing seasons, would be a step up. That won't get us anywhere other than to solidify our place in CUSA, for what little that is worth. To climb above that, which we need, will take more.

I'd say what we need to be attractive to bigger leagues would be averaging 10 wins per year including winning probably at least one-third of our games against top conference opposition. I say that because IIRC that's about where TCU was when they got invited to the XII. That's a much more daunting task. Somewhere between those two is probably a really good accomplishment.

Maybe averaging 8-9 wins a year, going to a bowl 4 out or 5 years, winning a conference championship 1 out of 5 years, playing in the conference championship game one out of three years. That could get us to the American or Mountain West when some of their members move up to bigger leagues, or maybe to the XII after Texas and the Oklahoma schools bolt.
12-06-2017 10:53 PM
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MemOwl Offline
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Post: #64
RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
if anyone is close enough to department to get an asst coaching candidate on to bloomgren's radar, pls PM me. I have a good candidate in mind.
12-06-2017 11:34 PM
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Antarius Offline
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Post: #65
RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
(12-06-2017 10:53 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 10:15 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  First, I need to know how you define "succeed at Rice".
Clearly, it has to be better than Bailiff. So some bowls, an occasional 10 win season, an even more occasional conference championship - that will not be enough.
Therefore, let's say it (success at Rice) is a bowl every year, some P5 wins, some SigWins, a conference championship more often than not.
I doubt he gets it done. I hope he does, because we need that level of success NOW, but given the history of Rice football since 1912, just call me PessimisticOwl.
Hell, even John Heisman couldn't win here.

First, John Heisman wasn't really all that successful a football coach anywhere. He got the trophy named after him because he had a position at the NY Athletic Club.

I would say, first, a cumulative record over .500, with more winning seasons than losing seasons, would be a step up. That won't get us anywhere other than to solidify our place in CUSA, for what little that is worth. To climb above that, which we need, will take more.

I'd say what we need to be attractive to bigger leagues would be averaging 10 wins per year including winning probably at least one-third of our games against top conference opposition. I say that because IIRC that's about where TCU was when they got invited to the XII. That's a much more daunting task. Somewhere between those two is probably a really good accomplishment.

Maybe averaging 8-9 wins a year, going to a bowl 4 out or 5 years, winning a conference championship 1 out of 5 years, playing in the conference championship game one out of three years. That could get us to the American or Mountain West when some of their members move up to bigger leagues, or maybe to the XII after Texas and the Oklahoma schools bolt.

I usually say don't feed the troll...

But in this case of you do, good job flooding them with boxes of airtight paperwork
12-07-2017 12:10 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #66
RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
(12-06-2017 10:53 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  I'd say what we need to be attractive to bigger leagues would be averaging 10 wins per year including winning probably at least one-third of our games against top conference opposition. I say that because IIRC that's about where TCU was when they got invited to the XII. That's a much more daunting task. Somewhere between those two is probably a really good accomplishment.

If he gets us into a bigger league, I think that in and of itself could qualify as "success at Rice". We haven't had any upward mobility since we joined the SWC.

Quote:Maybe averaging 8-9 wins a year, going to a bowl 4 out or 5 years, winning a conference championship 1 out of 5 years, playing in the conference championship game one out of three years.

Sounds like Marshall before the recent implosion.

I always thought naming the trophy after John Heisman was weird. But over the entire history of Rice, which coach(es) showed outstanding success? If this guy "succeeds", he will surpass them all. He will be our best coach ever. A very tall order, indeed. I hope he achieves it. I think it is possible. Really good hire. But if I were a betting man, I would bet against him. I think we have prepared ourselves mentally for a savior, and that is a hard bar to clear.

My prediction: if he is still here in four years, there will be more people on here pressing for his firing than there will be agitating for a raise to protect him from being poached. JMHO.
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2017 09:33 AM by OptimisticOwl.)
12-07-2017 02:13 AM
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Post: #67
RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
(12-06-2017 10:53 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 10:15 PM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  First, I need to know how you define "succeed at Rice".
Clearly, it has to be better than Bailiff. So some bowls, an occasional 10 win season, an even more occasional conference championship - that will not be enough.
Therefore, let's say it (success at Rice) is a bowl every year, some P5 wins, some SigWins, a conference championship more often than not.
I doubt he gets it done. I hope he does, because we need that level of success NOW, but given the history of Rice football since 1912, just call me PessimisticOwl.
Hell, even John Heisman couldn't win here.

First, John Heisman wasn't really all that successful a football coach anywhere. He got the trophy named after him because he had a position at the NY Athletic Club.

I would say, first, a cumulative record over .500, with more winning seasons than losing seasons, would be a step up. That won't get us anywhere other than to solidify our place in CUSA, for what little that is worth. To climb above that, which we need, will take more.

I'd say what we need to be attractive to bigger leagues would be averaging 10 wins per year including winning probably at least one-third of our games against top conference opposition. I say that because IIRC that's about where TCU was when they got invited to the XII. That's a much more daunting task. Somewhere between those two is probably a really good accomplishment.

Maybe averaging 8-9 wins a year, going to a bowl 4 out or 5 years, winning a conference championship 1 out of 5 years, playing in the conference championship game one out of three years. That could get us to the American or Mountain West when some of their members move up to bigger leagues, or maybe to the XII after Texas and the Oklahoma schools bolt.

More wins themselves will not do it. There will need to be more butts in seats and eyeballs on screens - significantly more. The problem is that I don't think crowds of students, alumni, and fans are ever going to flock to HRS to see the schools we play 75% of our games against, even if we win more against them than we have been doing. People like me (and I don't think I'm atypical) will fly in for the UHs, the Baylors, the UTs, etc., but we'll never fly in for the UTSAs, ODUs, etc., no matter what our record is, and that's the problem in a nutshell, and a shiny new coach doesn't address that stark reality.

Now with that said, there is a different kind of positive change that could make us attractive in a shifting landscape and that is a much more visible and tangible commitment to athletics and to moving UP. Landing Bloomgren is a positive sign that things are happening in that regard - there is no way we grab a coordinator from a Top 25 (top 15 really, over the past 5 years) P5 program without some sort of step up in funding, both now (to pay his market value) and in the future (so he knows he will have resources). I still want to see a concrete plan, and some explicit goals -- honestly, give us those and people like me *will* start coming to CUSA games, and donating more, etc., etc. -- but for now the signs are positive.
12-07-2017 10:50 AM
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Frizzy Owl Offline
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Post: #68
RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
The product on the field this season was unwatchable.

Yes, 50000 for a UTSA game isn't going to happen in the near future, but getting back to 25000 would be progress from where the program is now, and is simply a matter of playing competent football with a reasonable prospect of winning.
12-07-2017 10:58 AM
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Antarius Offline
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Post: #69
RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
(12-07-2017 10:58 AM)Frizzy Owl Wrote:  The product on the field this season was unwatchable.

Yes, 50000 for a UTSA game isn't going to happen in the near future, but getting back to 25000 would be progress from where the program is now, and is simply a matter of playing competent football with a reasonable prospect of winning.

I disagree. I can think of times we had more than 25k at HRS in the last 12 years on one hand.. and one of those times was a HS playoff game.

It will take more than just competent playing to get us there, although that is the first step.
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2017 11:09 AM by Antarius.)
12-07-2017 11:09 AM
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Post: #70
RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
(12-07-2017 02:13 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I think we have prepared ourselves mentally for a savior, and that is a hard bar to clear.

No, we have prepared ourselves to have a program that is mostly substance instead of mostly spin.

Jess Neely did pretty well here, BTW. A couple of Cotton Bowls, beat Texas one more time just for fun on his way out... If Bloomgren does better than Neely did, we'll get out of CUSunbelt for sure.
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2017 11:16 AM by Wiessman.)
12-07-2017 11:14 AM
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Frizzy Owl Offline
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Post: #71
RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
I'm prepared for a competent coach. That's a very low bar.
12-07-2017 11:23 AM
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OptimisticOwl Offline
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Post: #72
RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
(12-07-2017 11:14 AM)Wiessman Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 02:13 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I think we have prepared ourselves mentally for a savior, and that is a hard bar to clear.

No, we have prepared ourselves to have a program that is mostly substance instead of mostly spin.

Jess Neely did pretty well here, BTW. A couple of Cotton Bowls, beat Texas one more time just for fun on his way out... If Bloomgren does better than Neely did, we'll get out of CUSunbelt for sure.

Neely was 144-124-10 over 27 seasons. In those 27 seasons, he compiled a 3-3 record in bowls. He won 51.8% of the games he played.

different era, i know. But if Bloomgren cannot exceed those numbers considerably, we will be looking again.
12-07-2017 11:34 AM
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Post: #73
RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
(12-06-2017 10:05 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  
(12-06-2017 09:46 PM)baker-13 Wrote:  Biggest takeaways I had from it were that in terms of style he sounds an awful lot like what OwlNumbers describes Goldsmith as being like. Focus on sound defense, also the "if I can get Mom on campus, he's coming here" line.
I have to agree, he reminds me a lot of Fred. Fred was more glib, with quick one-liners, while Bloomgren seems more deliberate and thoughtful, but I see a lot of similarities.

One thing I will say is that his wife really reminds me of Pam Goldsmith.
12-07-2017 12:21 PM
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Post: #74
RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
(12-06-2017 08:43 PM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  Rethinking it, I will re-assess next year when he finishes recruiting. If he can turn a couple of 3*+ in our direction, we just might be on the way to something big.

He should have been in contact w some solid players who were interested in Stanford, but did not get offered. With his hire, they would be a lot more likely to take a serious look at Rice
12-07-2017 12:26 PM
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Post: #75
RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
(12-07-2017 11:34 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Neely was 144-124-10 over 27 seasons. In those 27 seasons, he compiled a 3-3 record in bowls. He won 51.8% of the games he played.

different era, i know. But if Bloomgren cannot exceed those numbers considerably, we will be looking again.

If Bloomgren were to win at a 52% clip against the caliber of teams that Neely had to face, he'd have us going places.

But yes, against our current schedule strength, Bloomgren will have to do much better than 52% to really be considered a success. And I reckon he would agree.

If we have to look again, we have to look again. The point is, we finally tried. We finally got some hope back, especially those of us who years and years ago could see the writing on the wall when looking at the alarming lack of quality in Bailiff's victory list.

We showed that we care about the program again. For now.
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2017 01:03 PM by Wiessman.)
12-07-2017 01:00 PM
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Post: #76
RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
In the spirit of the thread, I will document here that I don't expect him to be particularly successful, and the moment would be his answer to our offensive identity at yesterday's press conference.

A power rushing game and physical defense is not a dissimilar identity than what Bailiff had tried to instill at Rice to very limited success. It failed because if you want to just line up and smash people all over the field, you need the athletes to do that-- and we don't. We face some academic restrictions and are in a terrible conference with near-zero visibility. I just don't see us being able to pull off the level of recruiting necessary to make this work. Our defenses have been consistently bad for a long time for a reason.

Perhaps you can get around this by coaching and development to get guys playing bigger/faster than their measurables. But the few times I have seen Stanford play, I have always felt their offense, beyond being boring to watch, underperforms relative to its talent level. If you are bringing in phenomenal recruiting classes, which Stanford has consistently done, then that's not a big deal perhaps. But of course that's not going to be the case at Rice.

Hopefully we can revisit this in 1, 3, 5, 10 years, and remark on how foolish this take seems in the light of remarkable success from Bloomgren and the team.
12-07-2017 01:30 PM
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RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
The later years brought down Neely's won-loss record. The first three bowls were wins Orange 1947, Cotton 1950 and 1954.

(12-07-2017 11:34 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 11:14 AM)Wiessman Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 02:13 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  I think we have prepared ourselves mentally for a savior, and that is a hard bar to clear.

No, we have prepared ourselves to have a program that is mostly substance instead of mostly spin.

Jess Neely did pretty well here, BTW. A couple of Cotton Bowls, beat Texas one more time just for fun on his way out... If Bloomgren does better than Neely did, we'll get out of CUSunbelt for sure.

Neely was 144-124-10 over 27 seasons. In those 27 seasons, he compiled a 3-3 record in bowls. He won 51.8% of the games he played.

different era, i know. But if Bloomgren cannot exceed those numbers considerably, we will be looking again.
12-07-2017 01:39 PM
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Antarius Offline
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Post: #78
RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
(12-07-2017 01:30 PM)At Ease Wrote:  A power rushing game and physical defense is not a dissimilar identity than what Bailiff had tried to instill at Rice to very limited success. It failed because if you want to just line up and smash people all over the field, you need the athletes to do that-- and we don't. We face some academic restrictions and are in a terrible conference with near-zero visibility. I just don't see us being able to pull off the level of recruiting necessary to make this work. Our defenses have been consistently bad for a long time for a reason.

Our defenses have been bad because they are sloppy, undisciplined and poorly coached. I mean, we had Gaines AND Callahan in the backfield for a while (both in the NFL) and still achieved a bottom half defense against an awful awful conference.

Offensively, if we can fix the sloppy too where a 2nd and 5 doesn't become a punt because we had a penalty and ran a poorly executed short-side option... we'll be in much better shape.

Not to say that you are wrong - but IMO, the issues under Bailiff were more execution than anything else.
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2017 02:14 PM by Antarius.)
12-07-2017 02:13 PM
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Post: #79
RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
(12-07-2017 01:00 PM)Wiessman Wrote:  
(12-07-2017 11:34 AM)OptimisticOwl Wrote:  Neely was 144-124-10 over 27 seasons. In those 27 seasons, he compiled a 3-3 record in bowls. He won 51.8% of the games he played.

different era, i know. But if Bloomgren cannot exceed those numbers considerably, we will be looking again.

If Bloomgren were to win at a 52% clip against the caliber of teams that Neely had to face, he'd have us going places.

But yes, against our current schedule strength, Bloomgren will have to do much better than 52% to really be considered a success. And I reckon he would agree.

If we have to look again, we have to look again. The point is, we finally tried. We finally got some hope back, especially those of us who years and years ago could see the writing on the wall when looking at the alarming lack of quality in Bailiff's victory list.

We showed that we care about the program again. For now.

The teams we play next year that are the caliber of the teams that Neely played are LSU, Wake, and Houston. If we can approach 52% against them, we should come close to running the table against CUSA. Bloomgren would probably have to average 8-9 wins a year to be comparable to Neely. I think he can do that.
(This post was last modified: 12-07-2017 02:36 PM by Owl 69/70/75.)
12-07-2017 02:35 PM
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RE: The Official "I Knew It" Documentation Thread - Coach Bloomgren
(12-07-2017 01:30 PM)At Ease Wrote:  In the spirit of the thread, I will document here that I don't expect him to be particularly successful, and the moment would be his answer to our offensive identity at yesterday's press conference.

A power rushing game and physical defense is not a dissimilar identity than what Bailiff had tried to instill at Rice to very limited success. It failed because if you want to just line up and smash people all over the field, you need the athletes to do that-- and we don't. We face some academic restrictions and are in a terrible conference with near-zero visibility. I just don't see us being able to pull off the level of recruiting necessary to make this work. Our defenses have been consistently bad for a long time for a reason.

Perhaps you can get around this by coaching and development to get guys playing bigger/faster than their measurables. But the few times I have seen Stanford play, I have always felt their offense, beyond being boring to watch, underperforms relative to its talent level. If you are bringing in phenomenal recruiting classes, which Stanford has consistently done, then that's not a big deal perhaps. But of course that's not going to be the case at Rice.

Hopefully we can revisit this in 1, 3, 5, 10 years, and remark on how foolish this take seems in the light of remarkable success from Bloomgren and the team.

Rice won’t often be playing PAC-10 caliber teams.
12-07-2017 03:58 PM
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