FSU win assured two teams stay home and NMSU becomes bowl eligible becoming the 81st BE team. So who gets left out?

Western Michigan & Buffalo for sure.

They pretty much have to come from either the MAC or CUSA. The MAC is short 3 tie-ins and CUSA is short by 4. The 6-6 teams from those conferences are:

Buffalo
Western Michigan
Western Kentucky
Middle Tennessee
Louisiana Tech

Don't see how anybody else gets left out outside this group.

If only the question was which 6-6 teams will stay home, I'd be able to answer that Ole Miss would definitely be among those not going.

My gut says Buffalo for sure. Utah St is at risk as well as WMU and all the 6-6 C-USA schools. The C-USA schools have the advantage of all being very close to several bowl sites.

(12-02-2017 09:21 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  My gut says Buffalo for sure. Utah St is at risk as well as WMU and all the 6-6 C-USA schools. The C-USA schools have the advantage of all being very close to several bowl sites.

The MWC needs one spot for their sixth eligible team. The AAC has an extra tie-in, by virtue of locking up an NY6 berth. The Frisco bowl is scheduled to match an AAC team with an at-large team, which makes me think one of those spots will go to the MWC. So I think Utah State is safe.

Buffalo
Western Michigan
Middle Tennessee

(12-02-2017 09:29 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(12-02-2017 09:21 PM)Fighting Muskie Wrote:  My gut says Buffalo for sure. Utah St is at risk as well as WMU and all the 6-6 C-USA schools. The C-USA schools have the advantage of all being very close to several bowl sites.

The MWC needs one spot for their sixth eligible team. The AAC has an extra tie-in, by virtue of locking up an NY6 berth. The Frisco bowl is scheduled to match an AAC team with an at-large team, which makes me think one of those spots will go to the MWC. So I think Utah State is safe.

But remember that UTSA is bowl eligible at 6-5 and is a few hour's drive away. The Roadrunners would bring in better attendence in the Frisco Bowl. Heck, it could turn into the Houston-UTSA game that was cancelled earlier this season.

Something else to think about regarding bowl slots is that there are going to be slots that the P5 can't fill and bowl organizers will have to look to the P5 to fill. A MAC school is bound to end up playing in Detroit in place of the Big Ten.

The Big 10 has 7 tie-ins not counting the Orange/Citrus arrangement, or any other New Year’s Six slots. Since the Big 10 has eight bowl eligible teams, 3 of whom are likely to be in the Top 11 in the CFP standings, the Big 10 will short one bowl, if not two bowls. The MAC has four primary tie-ins, and seven bowl eligible teams. This pretty much makes Central Michigan a lock for the Quick Lane Bowl but still leaves two teams without a chair (Western Michigan and Buffalo).

The SEC has 9 tie-ins outside the New Year’s Six (their Citrus spot is firm) and nine bowl-eligible teams. They should get three in the New Year’s Six, which will short Birmingham, Independence, and Texas. The Independence Bowl has a back-up agreement with C-USA, and the ACC backs up the Birmingham Bowl, but will likely not fill it (see below) and therefore it falls to the Big 12 (see below).

The ACC has 8 tie-ins outside the NY6/Citrus with 10 eligible plus Notre Dame. They will likely get three in the NY6/Citrus, and therefore short no bowls.

The Pac 12 has nine eligible, with six tie-ins outside the CFP. The Pac 12 will likely have two teams in the NY6, leaving one team open to fill the SEC’s spot in the Texas Bowl.

The Big 12 has eight bowl eligible teams, with six tie-ins outside the New Year’s Six. Oklahoma will likely be their only NY6 representative, leaving one team open to fill the vacant spot in the Birmingham Bowl.

C-USA has 10 eligible, with six tie-ins plus the backup spot in the Independence Bowl. Louisiana Tech gets the nod to play the 8th selection from the ACC.

The American has 7 eligible, with 7 tie-ins not counting the CFP. This should open up another spot for C-USA, as the American will likely short the Hawaii Bowl. Middle Tennessee, come on down.

The Frisco Bowl goes to UTSA, as an at-large selection.

Utah State, Western Michigan, and Buffalo are out of luck.

Here is the answer

https://twitter.com/Brett_McMurphy/statu...4199527424
@Brett_McMurphy

Bowl eligible teams that did not go bowling:

Buffalo, UTSA, Western Michigan
1:47 PM - 3 Dec 2017

SApuro, chargeradio and Fighting Muskie had Buffalo and WMU, but all missed UTSA

Strange two of you thought USU. I'll chalk that up to east coast bias

Which schools that got left off that had a much better H2H with a P5 school and which ones made it had a lousy H2H P5? Western Michigan and UTSA both had better games against P5s while Utah State, Middle Tennessee State and some others had bad lousy losts to P5.

If the Poinsettia Bowl had not wilted, I would have expected Utah and San Diego State to be that matchup.

The MAC probably gets the Frisco Bowl spot against West Virginia, and the Armed Forces Bowl probably goes to UTSA or Marshall (with UTSA going to the New Mexico Bowl).

Great job by the Mountain West to secure the Armed Forces Bowl.

(12-03-2017 08:32 PM)chargeradio Wrote:  If the Poinsettia Bowl had not wilted, I would have expected Utah and San Diego State to be that matchup.

The MAC probably gets the Frisco Bowl spot against West Virginia, and the Armed Forces Bowl probably goes to UTSA or Marshall (with UTSA going to the New Mexico Bowl).

Great job by the Mountain West to secure the Armed Forces Bowl.

Having Air Force as a member has it's benefits