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World Cup 2018 Group Draw
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BePcr07 Online
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Post: #1
World Cup 2018 Group Draw
This Friday, December 1st at 10AM EST. The show will last for an hour with a 30-minute pre-show and a 30-minute post-show.

The rules in drawing the 8 groups of 4 (for those who are unaware):

1. 1 country from each of the 4 pots will be drawn into each of the 8 groups
2. no group can have more than 1 country from any confederation except a group can have up to 2 countries from UEFA (~ Europe)
3. the 4 pots, for this World Cup, are divided by the October FIFA rankings except that the host country (Russia) will automatically be put into pot 1

Here are the pots:

1: Russia, Germany, Brazil, Portugal, Argentina, Belgium, Poland, France
2: Spain, Peru, Switzerland, England, Colombia, Mexico, Uruguay, Croatia
3: Denmark, Iceland, Costa Rica, Sweden, Tunisia, Egypt, Senegal, Iran
4: Serbia, Nigeria, Australia, Japan, Morocco, Panama, South Korea, Saudi Arabia

First time participants this World Cup are Panama and Iceland.

Typically 1 group is noted as the "group of death" which typically consists of at least 3 countries that would likely qualify in any other group. This year it is most likely that the "group of death" will be any group that draws Spain. Most countries will want Russia as they are the weakest of the pot 1 countries. Also of note, no country outside of Europe or South America has ever won the World Cup or even been to the championship match. This is also the 1st World Cup in Eastern Europe.

With the United States out, and deservedly so after a poor and heartless performance in qualifying...

a) Are you going to watch the World Cup next summer?
b) Are you going to watch the draw this Friday?
c) What country/countries are you cheering for?
d) Who is your pick to win it all?

---

For myself:

a) Yes
b) Yes
c) In order: Iceland, England/Australia, any Africa country, any Asia country, Upsets
d) Only once (Sweden, 1958) out of 10 previous World Cups in Europe has a non-European country (Brazil) won the World Cup - note that the other 3 semifinalists were European (Sweden, France, West Germany). Only 6 out of the 40 semifinalists from those 10 previous European-hosted World Cups were non-European countries (Brazil 4x, Uruguay, Argentina). Therefore, my guess would be a European power. My gut says Germany, France, or Spain. My somewhat realistic heart says Belgium or England. However, I am always up for a surprise!
11-28-2017 01:04 PM
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_C2_ Online
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Post: #2
RE: World Cup 2018 Group Draw
No United States...couldn't even escape CONCACAF. I may watch the later rounds of the knockout stage but no United States makes things less interesting.
11-28-2017 01:43 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: World Cup 2018 Group Draw
wouldn't think a group with Spain would necessarily be a group of death. I mean- they're from pot 2, meaning one of the 2 teams expected to advance. They are the highest team in pot 2, but barely over Switzerland. Pot 3 you have 2 really tough teams- Denmark at 12 and Sweeden at 18. Those 2 will be the 2 that have the best shot of being in the group of death. There's a pretty big gap between pot 3 and pot 4- lowest pot 3 team is Iran at 32. The best pot 4 team is Serbia at 37.

The absolute group of death would be:
Brazil (rating 2), Spain(rating 6), Denmark(rating 12), and Austrailia(39)
The group of cupcakes would be:
Russia(65), Uruguay(21), Iran(32), Panama(56)
11-28-2017 03:18 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #4
RE: World Cup 2018 Group Draw
Can't only look at the FIFA rankings because they are flawed. Some countries (Poland is the best example) figured out that a national team can improve its FIFA ranking simply by playing fewer "friendlies" against other national teams. FIFA might fix that problem in the near future, but it's affecting the current rankings.

Just IMO, for example, Spain should be in group 1 instead of Poland, and I'd much rather face Peru or Croatia than Denmark or Costa Rica.

Because of the issues with the rankings along with just luck of the draw (if we assume the draw is completely on the level, which, given it's FIFA, is kind of like believing in the Easter Bunny), it's likely there will be one or two really difficult groups and one or two ridiculously easy groups.

No doubt the "luck of the draw" will give Russia an easy group to give the hosts the best possible chance of going through to the knockout stage. Something like Russia/Peru/Senegal/Panama.
11-28-2017 04:05 PM
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BePcr07 Online
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RE: World Cup 2018 Group Draw
(11-28-2017 04:05 PM)Wedge Wrote:  Can't only look at the FIFA rankings because they are flawed. Some countries (Poland is the best example) figured out that a national team can improve its FIFA ranking simply by playing fewer "friendlies" against other national teams. FIFA might fix that problem in the near future, but it's affecting the current rankings.

Just IMO, for example, Spain should be in group 1 instead of Poland, and I'd much rather face Peru or Croatia than Denmark or Costa Rica.

Because of the issues with the rankings along with just luck of the draw (if we assume the draw is completely on the level, which, given it's FIFA, is kind of like believing in the Easter Bunny), it's likely there will be one or two really difficult groups and one or two ridiculously easy groups.

No doubt the "luck of the draw" will give Russia an easy group to give the hosts the best possible chance of going through to the knockout stage. Something like Russia/Peru/Senegal/Panama.

The FIFA ranking system is definitely flawed but it is hard to argue exactly how the rankings would vary. Strange that Poland would be in the top 7 which is likely an anomaly. That being said, while there are difficult groups and easy groups, the champion will have a tough road by the end of the tournament.
11-28-2017 04:49 PM
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EPJr2 Offline
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Post: #6
RE: World Cup 2018 Group Draw
With the United States out, and deservedly so after a poor and heartless performance in qualifying...

a) Are you going to watch the World Cup next summer? - absolutely
b) Are you going to watch the draw this Friday? - yes
c) What country/countries are you cheering for? - everybody outside of Europe (except Iceland)
d) Who is your pick to win it all? - Germany
(This post was last modified: 11-29-2017 08:59 PM by EPJr2.)
11-29-2017 08:59 PM
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stever20 Online
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RE: World Cup 2018 Group Draw
saw this from ESPN:
http://www.espn.com/soccer/blog/marcotti...d-cup-draw

For the first time, pots will be based on FIFA rankings, rather than geographical factors. The only exception is Russia, who will be a top seed as host, as well as the stipulation that there can't be more than one team from the same confederation in each group (two in the case of UEFA). Before, after the top seeds, teams were allocated to pots based on confederation, which facilitated unbalanced groups.
What does this all mean? Theoretically, more balanced groups. Consider the "Group of Death." It's a trite, ugly and ultimately nonsensical term, but the good news is we likely won't get one -- at least not to the degree we did in the past.
12-01-2017 09:07 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #8
RE: World Cup 2018 Group Draw
draw is done:
GROUP A: Russia 65, Uruguay 21, Egypt 31, Saudi Arabia 63
GROUP B: Portugal 3, Spain 6, Iran 32, Morocco 40
GROUP C: France 9, Peru 11, Denmark 12, Australia 39
GROUP D: Argentina 4, Croatia 17, Iceland 22, Nigeria 50
GROUP E: Brazil 2, Switzerland 8, Costa Rica 26, Serbia 37
GROUP F: Germany 1, Mexico 16, Sweden 18, South Korea 59
GROUP G: Belgium 5, England 15, Tunisia 27, Panama 56
GROUP H: Poland 7, Colombia 13, Senegal 23, Japan 55

so got 2 group of death's. Group C with 3 in the top 12 and even Austrailia is strong, and group F with Germany Mexico and Sweeden.

If form holds- here's what the knockout round would look like:
Uruguay 21 vs Spain 6
France 9 vs Croatia 17
Brazil 2 vs Mexico 16
Belgium 5 vs Columbia 13
Portugal 3 vs Egypt 31
Argentina 4 vs Peru 11
Germany 1 vs Switzerland 8
Poland 7 vs England 15

Spain 6 vs France 9
Brazil 2 vs Belgium 5
Portugal 3 vs Argentina 4
Germany 1 vs Poland 7

so a great draw for Spain and France(if France can survive the group of death). Tough one for Germany I think.
12-01-2017 11:30 AM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: World Cup 2018 Group Draw
(11-28-2017 04:05 PM)Wedge Wrote:  No doubt the "luck of the draw" will give Russia an easy group to give the hosts the best possible chance of going through to the knockout stage. Something like Russia/Peru/Senegal/Panama.

It's Russia/Uruguay/Egypt/Saudi Arabia. Even easier for Team Putin than I predicted. They only have to beat out Egypt and Saudi Arabia to advance to the knockout stage.

Iceland plays Argentina first, but they can advance if they beat Croatia. Costa Rica and Denmark got groups out of which they could advance. Mexico will have a more difficult road.

All 8 groups: http://www.goal.com/en-us/news/world-cup...if041qbsq2
12-01-2017 11:41 AM
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stever20 Online
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RE: World Cup 2018 Group Draw
Mexico is in a brutal situation...

Have to beat Sweeden just to get out of pool play. Then see Brazil in the rd of 16. It's as hard as you can possibly get. Them and Peru I think are the 2 toughest draws for the entire tourney. Peru has to beat team right behind them in the ratings to make the rd of 16, then gets Argentina.

I mean look at Mexico... they have to beat all of these to win the World Cup possibly-
#18 Sweeden
#2 Brazil
# 5 Belgium
#6 Spain
#1 Germany

or Peru:
#12 Denmark
#4 Argentina
#3 Portugal
#1 Germany
#2 Brazil
12-01-2017 12:18 PM
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BePcr07 Online
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Post: #11
RE: World Cup 2018 Group Draw
I work for an international company where there a few Americans. So, naturally, a big board room was set up to watch the draw!

If I am forced to pick a group of death, I pick Group F with world #1 and defending champions Germany, CONCACAF #1 Mexico, the Swedish slayers of Netherlands/Italy, and a solid South Korea side. The easiest group would seem to be Group A with hosts Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Uruguay. Group C will be difficult because I think the teams are more evenly matched. Group D has Euro darlings Iceland against some stiff competition. Group E won't be a cake walk for Brazil by any means. Groups B (Portugal & Spain), G (Belgium & England), and H (Poland & Colombia) drew seemingly well in pots 3 & 4.
12-01-2017 12:41 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: World Cup 2018 Group Draw
(12-01-2017 12:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Mexico is in a brutal situation...

Have to beat Sweeden just to get out of pool play. Then see Brazil in the rd of 16. It's as hard as you can possibly get. Them and Peru I think are the 2 toughest draws for the entire tourney. Peru has to beat team right behind them in the ratings to make the rd of 16, then gets Argentina.

I mean look at Mexico... they have to beat all of these to win the World Cup possibly-
#18 Sweeden
#2 Brazil
# 5 Belgium
#6 Spain
#1 Germany

or Peru:
#12 Denmark
#4 Argentina
#3 Portugal
#1 Germany
#2 Brazil

It's difficult to predict all the way through the knockout stage, though. Based on the last World Cup, some of the obvious favorites will end up finishing 2nd in their group instead of 1st, which mixes up the anticipated knockout stage bracket. Teams will draw games they are predicted to win. Or teams will get to their 3rd group stage game with nothing to play for except 1st or 2nd in the group -- Belgium vs. England, the last game in their 2018 group, is a possible example of that.
12-01-2017 01:16 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #13
RE: World Cup 2018 Group Draw
(12-01-2017 01:16 PM)Wedge Wrote:  
(12-01-2017 12:18 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Mexico is in a brutal situation...

Have to beat Sweeden just to get out of pool play. Then see Brazil in the rd of 16. It's as hard as you can possibly get. Them and Peru I think are the 2 toughest draws for the entire tourney. Peru has to beat team right behind them in the ratings to make the rd of 16, then gets Argentina.

I mean look at Mexico... they have to beat all of these to win the World Cup possibly-
#18 Sweeden
#2 Brazil
# 5 Belgium
#6 Spain
#1 Germany

or Peru:
#12 Denmark
#4 Argentina
#3 Portugal
#1 Germany
#2 Brazil

It's difficult to predict all the way through the knockout stage, though. Based on the last World Cup, some of the obvious favorites will end up finishing 2nd in their group instead of 1st, which mixes up the anticipated knockout stage bracket. Teams will draw games they are predicted to win. Or teams will get to their 3rd group stage game with nothing to play for except 1st or 2nd in the group -- Belgium vs. England, the last game in their 2018 group, is a possible example of that.

Right but lets just look at the early part of things...
For Mexico- for them to just advance to knockout rounds, they're going to have to beat #18 Sweeden. Then #2 Brazil or even #8 Switzerland awaits.
For Peru- for them to just advance to knockout rounds, they're going to have to beat #12 Denmark. There #4 Argentina almost certainly will be awaiting.

But then you have Portugal and Spain- who besides each other won't see another top 20 side until the QF.
12-01-2017 02:15 PM
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Wedge Offline
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RE: World Cup 2018 Group Draw
(12-01-2017 02:15 PM)stever20 Wrote:  But then you have Portugal and Spain- who besides each other won't see another top 20 side until the QF.

That is the side effect of rigging the draw to give Russia a super-soft group. The Portugal-Spain group is matched with the Russia-Uruguay group in round 2.

It makes the Portugal-Spain game significant, because there's a huge difference between playing Uruguay in a knockout game vs. playing Russia, Egypt, or Saudi Arabia.
12-01-2017 04:09 PM
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Erictelevision Offline
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RE: World Cup 2018 Group Draw
No interest at all. IMO soccer is hockey on a field. Might check the final, if nothing else interesting is on.
12-03-2017 12:50 AM
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_C2_ Online
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Post: #16
RE: World Cup 2018 Group Draw
It's worse than hockey on the field, hockey has scoring by both teams pretty much every game or at least way more than soccer.
(This post was last modified: 06-14-2018 09:16 PM by _C2_.)
12-03-2017 02:11 AM
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RE: World Cup 2018 Group Draw
[Image: DfqH4z5V4AMJTPJ.jpg]
06-14-2018 06:45 PM
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Post: #18
RE: World Cup 2018 Group Draw
Thoughts after the 1st set of matches were played:

Belgium has looked the most impressive thus far, but there's a lot of ball to be played.

Portugal is going as far as Ronaldo will take them. One bad game, in the KO stage, and they're done, same could apply with Messi & Argentina, but I feel that Portugal has better players around Ronaldo than Argentina does Messi.

I was pleasantly surprised to see Mexico beat Germany. I'm sure that the Germany/Mexico/Sweden will likely go down to aggregate with all three likely beating each other.


It's kinda fun watching these games without the US in the tourney. It should be fun as we get to the 2nd set of matches, starting today.
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