(11-26-2017 02:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 01:51 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 12:22 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  TCU doesn't have a terrible loss but no quality wins. OSU has some quality with the road win in Ann Arbor and the blowout win with MSU. OU has quality OOC wins but a home loss and wouldn't be a CC if they lose. That's why it's really a fourth team by default sliding in if everyone loses.

If this was the BCS, I think Clemson would be out for now. UGa would have a win and in.

1. 13-0 Wisconsin
2. UGa 11-1
3. Clemson 11-1
4. OU 11-1

Would be my BCS pecking order.

Ohio St. has basically nothing on the road, only a tough win over a Michigan team that couldn't even get ranked despite their name. They squeaked by PSU at home and blew out MSU. After that, their best win is Army. They were dominated in their two losses.

TCU beat Oklahoma St. convincingly on the road. If they win the conference, they will have avenged their road loss to OU. They also have KSU as a road win.

Ohio St. is ahead of TCU now basically because of their name.

TCU has had 2 ranked games all year long. And 2 games with teams with fewer than 5 losses. Ohio St has had 3 ranked games all year long, and 5 with teams with fewer than 5 losses.

So no, I don't think it's just because of their name. Just because the Big 12 has a lot of 7-5 and 6-6 teams doesn't mean they're good teams.

But they aren't bad teams. They are teams that can beat you on a given Saturday. The Big 12 has only 2 bad teams. The Big 10 has quite a few. And most of them were on Ohio St.'s schedule. Their Big 10 opponents-3 were 4-8, 1 was 5-7 and 1 was 2-10. They also played 7-5 Iowa who beat them 55-24. Their ooc wins were over 5-7 UNLV and 8-3 Army.

As for TCU, WVU and ISU were ranked when TCU played them, in addition to OU and Oklahoma St.

(11-26-2017 03:54 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 02:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 01:51 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 12:22 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  TCU doesn't have a terrible loss but no quality wins. OSU has some quality with the road win in Ann Arbor and the blowout win with MSU. OU has quality OOC wins but a home loss and wouldn't be a CC if they lose. That's why it's really a fourth team by default sliding in if everyone loses.

If this was the BCS, I think Clemson would be out for now. UGa would have a win and in.

1. 13-0 Wisconsin
2. UGa 11-1
3. Clemson 11-1
4. OU 11-1

Would be my BCS pecking order.

Ohio St. has basically nothing on the road, only a tough win over a Michigan team that couldn't even get ranked despite their name. They squeaked by PSU at home and blew out MSU. After that, their best win is Army. They were dominated in their two losses.

TCU beat Oklahoma St. convincingly on the road. If they win the conference, they will have avenged their road loss to OU. They also have KSU as a road win.

Ohio St. is ahead of TCU now basically because of their name.

TCU has had 2 ranked games all year long. And 2 games with teams with fewer than 5 losses. Ohio St has had 3 ranked games all year long, and 5 with teams with fewer than 5 losses.

So no, I don't think it's just because of their name. Just because the Big 12 has a lot of 7-5 and 6-6 teams doesn't mean they're good teams.

But they aren't bad teams. They are teams that can beat you on a given Saturday. The Big 12 has only 2 bad teams. The Big 10 has quite a few. And most of them were on Ohio St.'s schedule. Their Big 10 opponents-3 were 4-8, 1 was 5-7 and 1 was 2-10. They also played 7-5 Iowa who beat them 55-24. Their ooc wins were over 5-7 UNLV and 8-3 Army.

As for TCU, WVU and ISU were ranked when TCU played them, in addition to OU and Oklahoma St.

being ranked when you play them is utterly meaningless. Both of those are mediocre 7-5 football teams.

The current system is set up where it is best to have a bimodal conference, meaning half the conference is really good and half really bad. That way you get as many teams as possible in the top 25. The Big 12 has 80% of the league bowl eligible, but that really doesn’t matter. It would be better to have 5 teams eligible with 4 or less losses and five really bad teams. Obviously you still need 0 and 1 loss teams- a bunch of 9-3 and 10-2 teams doesn’t help. But 5 6-6 and 7-5 teams are useless.

(11-26-2017 05:53 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 03:54 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 02:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 01:51 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 12:22 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  TCU doesn't have a terrible loss but no quality wins. OSU has some quality with the road win in Ann Arbor and the blowout win with MSU. OU has quality OOC wins but a home loss and wouldn't be a CC if they lose. That's why it's really a fourth team by default sliding in if everyone loses.

If this was the BCS, I think Clemson would be out for now. UGa would have a win and in.

1. 13-0 Wisconsin
2. UGa 11-1
3. Clemson 11-1
4. OU 11-1

Would be my BCS pecking order.

Ohio St. has basically nothing on the road, only a tough win over a Michigan team that couldn't even get ranked despite their name. They squeaked by PSU at home and blew out MSU. After that, their best win is Army. They were dominated in their two losses.

TCU beat Oklahoma St. convincingly on the road. If they win the conference, they will have avenged their road loss to OU. They also have KSU as a road win.

Ohio St. is ahead of TCU now basically because of their name.

TCU has had 2 ranked games all year long. And 2 games with teams with fewer than 5 losses. Ohio St has had 3 ranked games all year long, and 5 with teams with fewer than 5 losses.

So no, I don't think it's just because of their name. Just because the Big 12 has a lot of 7-5 and 6-6 teams doesn't mean they're good teams.

But they aren't bad teams. They are teams that can beat you on a given Saturday. The Big 12 has only 2 bad teams. The Big 10 has quite a few. And most of them were on Ohio St.'s schedule. Their Big 10 opponents-3 were 4-8, 1 was 5-7 and 1 was 2-10. They also played 7-5 Iowa who beat them 55-24. Their ooc wins were over 5-7 UNLV and 8-3 Army.

As for TCU, WVU and ISU were ranked when TCU played them, in addition to OU and Oklahoma St.

being ranked when you play them is utterly meaningless. Both of those are mediocre 7-5 football teams.

And a lot better than the 4-8 teams Ohio St. has played.

Now I think its highly unlikely the committee would pick TCU or USC over Ohio St.

(11-26-2017 08:14 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 05:53 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 03:54 PM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 02:01 PM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 01:51 PM)bullet Wrote:  Ohio St. has basically nothing on the road, only a tough win over a Michigan team that couldn't even get ranked despite their name. They squeaked by PSU at home and blew out MSU. After that, their best win is Army. They were dominated in their two losses.

TCU beat Oklahoma St. convincingly on the road. If they win the conference, they will have avenged their road loss to OU. They also have KSU as a road win.

Ohio St. is ahead of TCU now basically because of their name.

TCU has had 2 ranked games all year long. And 2 games with teams with fewer than 5 losses. Ohio St has had 3 ranked games all year long, and 5 with teams with fewer than 5 losses.

So no, I don't think it's just because of their name. Just because the Big 12 has a lot of 7-5 and 6-6 teams doesn't mean they're good teams.

But they aren't bad teams. They are teams that can beat you on a given Saturday. The Big 12 has only 2 bad teams. The Big 10 has quite a few. And most of them were on Ohio St.'s schedule. Their Big 10 opponents-3 were 4-8, 1 was 5-7 and 1 was 2-10. They also played 7-5 Iowa who beat them 55-24. Their ooc wins were over 5-7 UNLV and 8-3 Army.

As for TCU, WVU and ISU were ranked when TCU played them, in addition to OU and Oklahoma St.

being ranked when you play them is utterly meaningless. Both of those are mediocre 7-5 football teams.

And a lot better than the 4-8 teams Ohio St. has played.

Ohio St has 1 more ranked win than TCU has.

According to Sagarin, OSU has had a tougher schedule than TCU has had. 42-46. And Wisconsin ahead of Oklahoma- so that won't change.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...OUZ1yVH3s0

Quick article on TCU over OSU, due to the H2H loss with OU earlier in the year knocking OSU below OU. I think it's pretty sound. Had the Buckeyes lost in Norman, they would still be alive.

TCU has two road losses, including in Norman which gives the team a chance to right the wrong in the rematch.

Honestly it will take OSU winning 69-0 with a backup QB and TCU winning a double OT 37-30 type of game for the committee to give them the nod this time around. I don't see it happening for them. Not enough there this year.

USC is out with a Stanford rematch, not enough diversity in the schedule there and a bad loss to a mediocre ND.

Here's the current situation, and it won't change regardless of what the CFP does with today's rankings:

1) ACC title game winner is IN, loser is OUT

2) SEC title game winner is IN, loser is OUT

3) Wisconsin wins they are IN, lose they are OUT

4) Oklahoma wins they are IN, lose they are OUT

5) Alabama ... needs a Wisconsin loss or Oklahoma loss to get IN. If both lose they are IN, if Oklahoma loses they are IN, if Wisconsin loses but Oklahoma wins they are probably IN but could lose OUT to Ohio State.

6) Ohio State ... needs to beat Wisconsin to have any chance to get in, probably out, but could get IN over Alabama.

The loss to Oklahoma makes things sticky for Ohio State. Even if Oklahoma loses to TCU, how does the CFP put Ohio State in over a two-loss Oklahoma that beat them like a drum? If I'm Ohio State, i want Oklahoma to win, to guarantee that they are in and it becomes just a one-way comparison with Alabama for the final spot.

7) Nobody else has any chance to make the playoffs. TCU, USC, and Stanford are all playing for an NY6 bowl bid only.

(11-28-2017 09:45 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  Here's the current situation, and it won't change regardless of what the CFP does with today's rankings:

1) ACC title game winner is IN, loser is OUT

2) SEC title game winner is IN, loser is OUT

3) Wisconsin wins they are IN, lose they are OUT

4) Oklahoma wins they are IN, lose they are OUT

5) Alabama ... needs a Wisconsin loss or Oklahoma loss to get IN. If both lose they are IN, if Oklahoma loses they are IN, if Wisconsin loses but Oklahoma wins they are probably IN but could lose OUT to Ohio State.

6) Ohio State ... needs to beat Wisconsin to have any chance to get in, probably out, but could get IN over Alabama.

The loss to Oklahoma makes things sticky for Ohio State. Even if Oklahoma loses to TCU, how does the CFP put Ohio State in over a two-loss Oklahoma that beat them like a drum? If I'm Ohio State, i want Oklahoma to win, to guarantee that they are in and it becomes just a one-way comparison with Alabama for the final spot.

7) Nobody else has any chance to make the playoffs. TCU, USC, and Stanford are all playing for an NY6 bowl bid only.

You allude to it but come to a different conclusion, but I think Palm and Outkick the coverage points about TCU/OU/OSU triangle at least makes it questionable what the committee would do should TCU and OSU win.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-footba...hio-state/

https://www.outkickthecoverage.com/colle...day-dawns/

Assuming Alabama as the third team, do you take 11-2 OSU who lost big at home to OU, OU who is not a conf champ and just lost to TCU or TCU who is a champ with an identical record, but without a win even close to the Ohio State win. Palm thinks the committee is very consistent in giving the nod to the head to head for teams with similar profiles, so I kinda agree that there is no way OSU gets in over OU. But would the committee give the nod to OU who just lost to TCU in a championship game? Hard to say, but at a minimum I think you have to at least entertain the possibility of Palm being right and they's take TCU in that scenario.

I don't see the committee screwing TCU 2x in four years, they will probably get in with a Wisconsin loss.

(11-28-2017 10:44 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I don't see the committee screwing TCU 2x in four years, they will probably get in with a Wisconsin loss.

They may well have been the best team in the 2010 season. I think they were. I don't think they will have any trouble making it 3 times in 8 years locking them out of a chance.

Alabama clearly gets the first spot if OU or Wisconsin stumble. They don't have much in the way of big wins, but they have been ranked high all year based on the eyeball test.

I think Ohio St. gets the next one for the same reason. But the OU loss complicates things for the committee. They probably push OU down to #7 so they don't have to do any head-to-head, making it a Ohio St./USC/TCU comparison.

That doesn't mean I think Ohio St. deserves it. But I think they will get it.

(11-28-2017 11:53 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 10:44 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I don't see the committee screwing TCU 2x in four years, they will probably get in with a Wisconsin loss.

They may well have been the best team in the 2010 season. I think they were. I don't think they will have any trouble making it 3 times in 8 years locking them out of a chance.

Alabama clearly gets the first spot if OU or Wisconsin stumble. They don't have much in the way of big wins, but they have been ranked high all year based on the eyeball test.

I think Ohio St. gets the next one for the same reason. But the OU loss complicates things for the committee. They probably push OU down to #7 so they don't have to do any head-to-head, making it a Ohio St./USC/TCU comparison.

That doesn't mean I think Ohio St. deserves it. But I think they will get it.

I think a really underrated game in the scenario that you bring up is Stanford/USC. IF Stanford wins- the teams in that 4/6 line would be Ohio St, TCU, and Oklahoma. If USC wins, USC is in that 4-6 group instead of Oklahoma.

I think it's a lot easier for Ohio St if USC is in the 4-6 group instead of Oklahoma. So if I were a TCU fan, I'd be rooting for Stanford big time on Friday night.

It's like a repeat of Baylor/TCU/OSU except OU is just as big a brand. I'm gonna go with TCU barring another 59-0 OSU win. Difference this year is the Big 12 declaring a conf. champion and having the 13th data point.

(11-28-2017 02:11 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  It's like a repeat of Baylor/TCU/OSU except OU is just as big a brand. I'm gonna go with TCU barring another 59-0 OSU win. Difference this year is the Big 12 declaring a conf. champion and having the 13th data point.

And the OU win over OSU. If OU loses that game, the Big 12 would be pretty much in the same position as the PAC-12 right now.

(11-28-2017 03:49 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 02:11 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  It's like a repeat of Baylor/TCU/OSU except OU is just as big a brand. I'm gonna go with TCU barring another 59-0 OSU win. Difference this year is the Big 12 declaring a conf. champion and having the 13th data point.

And the OU win over OSU. If OU loses that game, the Big 12 would be pretty much in the same position as the PAC-12 right now.

yeah amazing to think about that... if Ohio St had beaten Oklahoma....

we'd have-
Miami/Clemson winner- in easily
Georgia/Auburn winner- in easily
Ohio St/Wisconsin winner- in easily
Alabama with 1 loss
Oklahoma/TCU winner

think it's safe to say that if Ohio St had beaten Oklahoma, Alabama would be close to a lock right now.

The committee is lucky that we had such a large OOC sampling this year, ND/Miami OU/OSU Clemson/Auburn and UGa/ND made it a lot easier to separate the teams among one another. Most years it's complete guess work and assumptions with limited H2H data.

(11-28-2017 11:53 AM)bullet Wrote:  

(11-28-2017 10:44 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  I don't see the committee screwing TCU 2x in four years, they will probably get in with a Wisconsin loss.

They may well have been the best team in the 2010 season. I think they were.

I think at least three SEC teams - Auburn, Alabama, and LSU - would have beaten up TCU pretty good that year. Probably Arkansas too.

What a farce

https://www.seccountry.com/sec/college-f...ms-week-14

1️⃣ Clemson
2️⃣ Auburn
3️⃣ Oklahoma
4️⃣ Wisconsin

Wow is the SEC still over-rated.

3 of the top 6?