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so thoughts on CFP release
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #101
RE: so thoughts on CFP release
(11-30-2017 03:03 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 09:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 07:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 10:53 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing I find funny is folks complaining about Fresno St being ranked. While yes, it definitely does help Alabama they are 9-3 and champions of their division in the MWC- having just beat Boise.

I mean-
there are only 25 P5 teams in the country with fewer than 5 losses right now
then you have 5 G5 teams in the country with fewer than 3 losses right now

It gets to a point where there aren't many teams left that could be really ranked.

LOL. snicker snicker. Sure. Because the Committee has a long and storied history of ranking 3-loss G5's. Frenso has not one, not two, BUT THREE DOUBLE DIGIT LOSSES this year. If Frenso hadnt played 'Bama they wouldnt be ranked and everyone knows it.

Maybe, but on the other hand, two of those losses, and by far the worst, are to Alabama and Washington, two of the best teams in the country. That surely does count for something. In effect, they only have one loss among their peers, so to speak. Since any other G5 would lose to those two as well, it makes sense not judge FS too harshly for that.

So...again, we value losses more than actual wins. Beating Bama means something. Losing to Bama....well, anyone can do that. Hell, UConn might get ranked if losing to good teams is all you have to do. Poor UCF. All they had to do is lose to USF and they would have had a good quality loss on their resume. That would move them up 3 or 4 slots at least with the Committee.

It's not a question of 'valuing' a loss, it's putting it in to context. When comparing Fresno to Tulsa, it makes little sense to say "well Fresno lost to Alabama and Tulsa didn't so that's a positive for Tulsa over Fresno" because there's no doubt that this is only because Fresno played Alabama and Tulsa didn't. Had Tulsa played Alabama, they would have lost too.
11-30-2017 07:05 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #102
RE: so thoughts on CFP release
(11-30-2017 03:13 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 09:51 PM)stever20 Wrote:  here's who Fresno was battling with for ratings just from G5 programs-
USF 9-2 but with 0 wins vs winning FBS teams
Florida Atlantic 9-3 with 23 pt loss to Navy, 17 pt loss to Wisconsin, and 3 point loss to Buffalo.
North Texas 9-3 with 22 pt loss to SMU, 17 to Iowa, and 38 to FAU
Toledo 10-2 with 22 pt loss to Miami and 28 to Ohio U
Boise St 9-3(whom Fresno just beat)
Troy 9-2(with win over LSU, but also 11 point loss to Boise, whom Fresno just beat)

I don't see it all that controversial that Fresno would be ahead of all of those.

the 3 4 loss P5 teams not in-
Louisville 8-4 with best win being vs 7-5 Kentucky
Michigan 8-4 with 0 wins over a winning team all year long(only them and Missouri among winning teams can say that)
South Carolina 8-4 with a win over #24 NC State, but then not too much else.

So tell me exactly who should be in over Fresno. I guess I could kind of see South Carolina. But that's really it.

How about USF--who is ranked in all the other major polls? Just 2 losses--one a 3 point hail mary loss to a Jeckle-and-Hyde Houston and a loss to an undefeated UCF (#14 in the current CFP poll). Of course---if they did that, the committee would have to bump up UCF wouldnt it? Yeah...cant have that.

If we hadn't given up the 4th and 24 Hail Mary to Houston, and if we hadn't committed a dumb penalty or two against UCF, we'd be 11-0 and ranked about where UCF is right now.

But we did so we aren't. Sometimes, enormous differences in outcomes can hinge on just one play or one dumb mistake. That's one of the maddening things about football, and one of its fascinations that keeps us coming back for more.
(This post was last modified: 11-30-2017 07:09 AM by quo vadis.)
11-30-2017 07:08 AM
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Post: #103
RE: so thoughts on CFP release
https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc...909289001/

USA Today ignores TCU. Yes, its a long shot, but they probably end up ahead of USC if both win and they include USC.

TCU would have 2 wins over ranked teams and 7 over bowl teams, comparable to Ohio St., USC and Alabama, along with a revenge win against one of the teams who beat them and the best win of any of the contenders for the last slot (OU vs. Wisconsin vs. Stanford vs. LSU) and possibly a higher ranked win than Georgia (Auburn) or Miami (Clemson) or Clemson (Auburn also).
11-30-2017 02:40 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #104
RE: so thoughts on CFP release
(11-30-2017 07:08 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 03:13 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 09:51 PM)stever20 Wrote:  here's who Fresno was battling with for ratings just from G5 programs-
USF 9-2 but with 0 wins vs winning FBS teams
Florida Atlantic 9-3 with 23 pt loss to Navy, 17 pt loss to Wisconsin, and 3 point loss to Buffalo.
North Texas 9-3 with 22 pt loss to SMU, 17 to Iowa, and 38 to FAU
Toledo 10-2 with 22 pt loss to Miami and 28 to Ohio U
Boise St 9-3(whom Fresno just beat)
Troy 9-2(with win over LSU, but also 11 point loss to Boise, whom Fresno just beat)

I don't see it all that controversial that Fresno would be ahead of all of those.

the 3 4 loss P5 teams not in-
Louisville 8-4 with best win being vs 7-5 Kentucky
Michigan 8-4 with 0 wins over a winning team all year long(only them and Missouri among winning teams can say that)
South Carolina 8-4 with a win over #24 NC State, but then not too much else.

So tell me exactly who should be in over Fresno. I guess I could kind of see South Carolina. But that's really it.

How about USF--who is ranked in all the other major polls? Just 2 losses--one a 3 point hail mary loss to a Jeckle-and-Hyde Houston and a loss to an undefeated UCF (#14 in the current CFP poll). Of course---if they did that, the committee would have to bump up UCF wouldnt it? Yeah...cant have that.

If we hadn't given up the 4th and 24 Hail Mary to Houston, and if we hadn't committed a dumb penalty or two against UCF, we'd be 11-0 and ranked about where UCF is right now.

But we did so we aren't. Sometimes, enormous differences in outcomes can hinge on just one play or one dumb mistake. That's one of the maddening things about football, and one of its fascinations that keeps us coming back for more.

EXACTLY!!! Losses matter. You're now getting it. Of course USF doesnt deserve to ranked as high as USF--but they deserve to be ranked more than Fresno.
(This post was last modified: 11-30-2017 02:44 PM by Attackcoog.)
11-30-2017 02:42 PM
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Attackcoog Offline
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Post: #105
RE: so thoughts on CFP release
(11-30-2017 07:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 03:03 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 09:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 07:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 10:53 AM)stever20 Wrote:  The thing I find funny is folks complaining about Fresno St being ranked. While yes, it definitely does help Alabama they are 9-3 and champions of their division in the MWC- having just beat Boise.

I mean-
there are only 25 P5 teams in the country with fewer than 5 losses right now
then you have 5 G5 teams in the country with fewer than 3 losses right now

It gets to a point where there aren't many teams left that could be really ranked.

LOL. snicker snicker. Sure. Because the Committee has a long and storied history of ranking 3-loss G5's. Frenso has not one, not two, BUT THREE DOUBLE DIGIT LOSSES this year. If Frenso hadnt played 'Bama they wouldnt be ranked and everyone knows it.

Maybe, but on the other hand, two of those losses, and by far the worst, are to Alabama and Washington, two of the best teams in the country. That surely does count for something. In effect, they only have one loss among their peers, so to speak. Since any other G5 would lose to those two as well, it makes sense not judge FS too harshly for that.

So...again, we value losses more than actual wins. Beating Bama means something. Losing to Bama....well, anyone can do that. Hell, UConn might get ranked if losing to good teams is all you have to do. Poor UCF. All they had to do is lose to USF and they would have had a good quality loss on their resume. That would move them up 3 or 4 slots at least with the Committee.

It's not a question of 'valuing' a loss, it's putting it in to context. When comparing Fresno to Tulsa, it makes little sense to say "well Fresno lost to Alabama and Tulsa didn't so that's a positive for Tulsa over Fresno" because there's no doubt that this is only because Fresno played Alabama and Tulsa didn't. Had Tulsa played Alabama, they would have lost too.

Fresno also didnt "lose" to Alabama and Washington. They were flat blown out by both. Thats the real difference. We KNOW Fresno is fools gold. UCF or USF may or may not be--but we KNOW Fresno is fools gold. They are not competetive against top teams and thus have zero business in the top 25. They are there to help Alabama's SOS. If USF played Alabama and lost by 30--I suspect they would be ranked.
(This post was last modified: 11-30-2017 02:50 PM by Attackcoog.)
11-30-2017 02:46 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #106
RE: so thoughts on CFP release
(11-30-2017 02:40 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc...909289001/

USA Today ignores TCU. Yes, its a long shot, but they probably end up ahead of USC if both win and they include USC.

TCU would have 2 wins over ranked teams and 7 over bowl teams, comparable to Ohio St., USC and Alabama, along with a revenge win against one of the teams who beat them and the best win of any of the contenders for the last slot (OU vs. Wisconsin vs. Stanford vs. LSU) and possibly a higher ranked win than Georgia (Auburn) or Miami (Clemson) or Clemson (Auburn also).

TCU 2 ranked wins
Ohio St would have 3 ranked wins
USC would have 2 ranked wins
Alabama would have 2 ranked wins for sure, 3 if Fresno beats Boise. But just as important- only 1 loss...

Also just as a factoid that I heard.... 1st 3 years. The worst loss ANY playoff team has ever had in the regular sesaon. 14 points... (ohio st/va tech).

Ohio St lost 2 games by 15 and 31 points
USC lost by 35
TCU lost by 18

I think this scenario is actually really easy for the committee. Alabama and Ohio St get in.

Heck, I think it's no lock for TCU to be ahead of Oklahoma quite frankly.
11-30-2017 02:54 PM
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stever20 Offline
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Post: #107
RE: so thoughts on CFP release
(11-30-2017 02:46 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 07:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 03:03 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 09:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 07:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  LOL. snicker snicker. Sure. Because the Committee has a long and storied history of ranking 3-loss G5's. Frenso has not one, not two, BUT THREE DOUBLE DIGIT LOSSES this year. If Frenso hadnt played 'Bama they wouldnt be ranked and everyone knows it.

Maybe, but on the other hand, two of those losses, and by far the worst, are to Alabama and Washington, two of the best teams in the country. That surely does count for something. In effect, they only have one loss among their peers, so to speak. Since any other G5 would lose to those two as well, it makes sense not judge FS too harshly for that.

So...again, we value losses more than actual wins. Beating Bama means something. Losing to Bama....well, anyone can do that. Hell, UConn might get ranked if losing to good teams is all you have to do. Poor UCF. All they had to do is lose to USF and they would have had a good quality loss on their resume. That would move them up 3 or 4 slots at least with the Committee.

It's not a question of 'valuing' a loss, it's putting it in to context. When comparing Fresno to Tulsa, it makes little sense to say "well Fresno lost to Alabama and Tulsa didn't so that's a positive for Tulsa over Fresno" because there's no doubt that this is only because Fresno played Alabama and Tulsa didn't. Had Tulsa played Alabama, they would have lost too.

Fresno also didnt "lose" to Alabama and Washington. They were flat blown out by both. Thats the real difference. We KNOW Fresno is fools gold. UCF or USF may or may not be--but we KNOW Fresno is fools gold. They are not competetive against top teams and thus have zero business in the top 25. They are there to help Alabama's SOS. If USF played Alabama and lost by 30--I suspect they would be ranked.
Can you give me just 1 win that USF has that is better than Fresno over Boise St? Heck, or over San Diego St as well. That's the problem with USF.
11-30-2017 03:13 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #108
RE: so thoughts on CFP release
(11-30-2017 03:13 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 02:46 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 07:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 03:03 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 09:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Maybe, but on the other hand, two of those losses, and by far the worst, are to Alabama and Washington, two of the best teams in the country. That surely does count for something. In effect, they only have one loss among their peers, so to speak. Since any other G5 would lose to those two as well, it makes sense not judge FS too harshly for that.

So...again, we value losses more than actual wins. Beating Bama means something. Losing to Bama....well, anyone can do that. Hell, UConn might get ranked if losing to good teams is all you have to do. Poor UCF. All they had to do is lose to USF and they would have had a good quality loss on their resume. That would move them up 3 or 4 slots at least with the Committee.

It's not a question of 'valuing' a loss, it's putting it in to context. When comparing Fresno to Tulsa, it makes little sense to say "well Fresno lost to Alabama and Tulsa didn't so that's a positive for Tulsa over Fresno" because there's no doubt that this is only because Fresno played Alabama and Tulsa didn't. Had Tulsa played Alabama, they would have lost too.

Fresno also didnt "lose" to Alabama and Washington. They were flat blown out by both. Thats the real difference. We KNOW Fresno is fools gold. UCF or USF may or may not be--but we KNOW Fresno is fools gold. They are not competetive against top teams and thus have zero business in the top 25. They are there to help Alabama's SOS. If USF played Alabama and lost by 30--I suspect they would be ranked.
Can you give me just 1 win that USF has that is better than Fresno over Boise St? Heck, or over San Diego St as well. That's the problem with USF.

Wow - just looked at their wins - best win is over 6-6 Temple.
They beat an FCS
3 2-win teams
2 3-win teams
Single 4, 5 and 6 win teams
11-30-2017 03:54 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #109
RE: so thoughts on CFP release
(11-30-2017 02:42 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 07:08 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 03:13 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 09:51 PM)stever20 Wrote:  here's who Fresno was battling with for ratings just from G5 programs-
USF 9-2 but with 0 wins vs winning FBS teams
Florida Atlantic 9-3 with 23 pt loss to Navy, 17 pt loss to Wisconsin, and 3 point loss to Buffalo.
North Texas 9-3 with 22 pt loss to SMU, 17 to Iowa, and 38 to FAU
Toledo 10-2 with 22 pt loss to Miami and 28 to Ohio U
Boise St 9-3(whom Fresno just beat)
Troy 9-2(with win over LSU, but also 11 point loss to Boise, whom Fresno just beat)

I don't see it all that controversial that Fresno would be ahead of all of those.

the 3 4 loss P5 teams not in-
Louisville 8-4 with best win being vs 7-5 Kentucky
Michigan 8-4 with 0 wins over a winning team all year long(only them and Missouri among winning teams can say that)
South Carolina 8-4 with a win over #24 NC State, but then not too much else.

So tell me exactly who should be in over Fresno. I guess I could kind of see South Carolina. But that's really it.

How about USF--who is ranked in all the other major polls? Just 2 losses--one a 3 point hail mary loss to a Jeckle-and-Hyde Houston and a loss to an undefeated UCF (#14 in the current CFP poll). Of course---if they did that, the committee would have to bump up UCF wouldnt it? Yeah...cant have that.

If we hadn't given up the 4th and 24 Hail Mary to Houston, and if we hadn't committed a dumb penalty or two against UCF, we'd be 11-0 and ranked about where UCF is right now.

But we did so we aren't. Sometimes, enormous differences in outcomes can hinge on just one play or one dumb mistake. That's one of the maddening things about football, and one of its fascinations that keeps us coming back for more.

EXACTLY!!! Losses matter. You're now getting it. Of course USF doesnt deserve to ranked as high as USF--but they deserve to be ranked more than Fresno.

To me, USF and Fresno have similar results. They have one more loss, which matters a whole lot, but they've also played better top competition. They have two losses to teams that are better than anyone we've played, but also a loss to a team that is worse than anyone we've lost to. So really, it's splitting hairs. If we were #25 and they were unranked, I'd be fine with it, and I'm fine with the current ranking as well. Doesn't bother me that Fresno is ahead of us, a rational case can be made for that.
11-30-2017 04:15 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #110
RE: so thoughts on CFP release
(11-30-2017 02:46 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 07:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 03:03 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 09:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 07:14 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  LOL. snicker snicker. Sure. Because the Committee has a long and storied history of ranking 3-loss G5's. Frenso has not one, not two, BUT THREE DOUBLE DIGIT LOSSES this year. If Frenso hadnt played 'Bama they wouldnt be ranked and everyone knows it.

Maybe, but on the other hand, two of those losses, and by far the worst, are to Alabama and Washington, two of the best teams in the country. That surely does count for something. In effect, they only have one loss among their peers, so to speak. Since any other G5 would lose to those two as well, it makes sense not judge FS too harshly for that.

So...again, we value losses more than actual wins. Beating Bama means something. Losing to Bama....well, anyone can do that. Hell, UConn might get ranked if losing to good teams is all you have to do. Poor UCF. All they had to do is lose to USF and they would have had a good quality loss on their resume. That would move them up 3 or 4 slots at least with the Committee.

It's not a question of 'valuing' a loss, it's putting it in to context. When comparing Fresno to Tulsa, it makes little sense to say "well Fresno lost to Alabama and Tulsa didn't so that's a positive for Tulsa over Fresno" because there's no doubt that this is only because Fresno played Alabama and Tulsa didn't. Had Tulsa played Alabama, they would have lost too.

Fresno also didnt "lose" to Alabama and Washington. They were flat blown out by both. Thats the real difference. We KNOW Fresno is fools gold. UCF or USF may or may not be--but we KNOW Fresno is fools gold. They are not competetive against top teams and thus have zero business in the top 25. They are there to help Alabama's SOS. If USF played Alabama and lost by 30--I suspect they would be ranked.

We'll find out more about Fresno when they play Boise again this weekend. I suspect Boise lost to them because they were sand-bagging, both in terms of personnel and strategy, were saving themselves for the CCG.

If so, Fresno will get beat, and since it seems to bother you, they will also surely fall out of the final CFP ranking, the one that actually determines who goes to the playoffs, major bowls, etc., and be of no help to Alabama in that regard.

So don't get so worked up about it. 07-coffee3
(This post was last modified: 11-30-2017 04:19 PM by quo vadis.)
11-30-2017 04:18 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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Post: #111
RE: so thoughts on CFP release
(11-30-2017 04:18 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 02:46 PM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 07:05 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 03:03 AM)Attackcoog Wrote:  
(11-29-2017 09:36 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  Maybe, but on the other hand, two of those losses, and by far the worst, are to Alabama and Washington, two of the best teams in the country. That surely does count for something. In effect, they only have one loss among their peers, so to speak. Since any other G5 would lose to those two as well, it makes sense not judge FS too harshly for that.

So...again, we value losses more than actual wins. Beating Bama means something. Losing to Bama....well, anyone can do that. Hell, UConn might get ranked if losing to good teams is all you have to do. Poor UCF. All they had to do is lose to USF and they would have had a good quality loss on their resume. That would move them up 3 or 4 slots at least with the Committee.

It's not a question of 'valuing' a loss, it's putting it in to context. When comparing Fresno to Tulsa, it makes little sense to say "well Fresno lost to Alabama and Tulsa didn't so that's a positive for Tulsa over Fresno" because there's no doubt that this is only because Fresno played Alabama and Tulsa didn't. Had Tulsa played Alabama, they would have lost too.

Fresno also didnt "lose" to Alabama and Washington. They were flat blown out by both. Thats the real difference. We KNOW Fresno is fools gold. UCF or USF may or may not be--but we KNOW Fresno is fools gold. They are not competetive against top teams and thus have zero business in the top 25. They are there to help Alabama's SOS. If USF played Alabama and lost by 30--I suspect they would be ranked.

We'll find out more about Fresno when they play Boise again this weekend. I suspect Boise lost to them because they were sand-bagging, both in terms of personnel and strategy, were saving themselves for the CCG.

If so, Fresno will get beat, and since it seems to bother you, they will also surely fall out of the final CFP ranking, the one that actually determines who goes to the playoffs, major bowls, etc., and be of no help to Alabama in that regard.

So don't get so worked up about it. 07-coffee3

I made that point about 50 posts ago - if Fresno is 10-3, MWC Champ, and winner of two straight over Boise, they will be ranked, no doubt.

If they lose, they won't be ranked.

No need to worry about it.
11-30-2017 04:24 PM
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YNot Offline
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Post: #112
RE: so thoughts on CFP release
(11-30-2017 03:54 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 03:13 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Can you give me just 1 win that USF has that is better than Fresno over Boise St? Heck, or over San Diego St as well. That's the problem with USF.
Wow - just looked at their wins - best win is over 6-6 Temple.
They beat an FCS
3 2-win teams
2 3-win teams
Single 4, 5 and 6 win teams

There are reasons both the AP and Coaches pollsters vote South Florida ahead of Fresno.

From another perspective,

South Florida lost at #14 UCF in the final minutes by 7 points and lost to 7-4 Houston by 4 points on a Hail Mary.

Fresno St. lost at #13 Washington by 32 points and to 5-7 UNLV at home by 10 points.

...

Common opponent = SJSU

South Florida 42-22 v. Fresno St. 27-10. Pretty close call there.

With Flowers, South Florida passes the eye test so much better than Fresno.
11-30-2017 04:28 PM
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Post: #113
RE: so thoughts on CFP release
(11-30-2017 02:54 PM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 02:40 PM)bullet Wrote:  https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nc...909289001/

USA Today ignores TCU. Yes, its a long shot, but they probably end up ahead of USC if both win and they include USC.

TCU would have 2 wins over ranked teams and 7 over bowl teams, comparable to Ohio St., USC and Alabama, along with a revenge win against one of the teams who beat them and the best win of any of the contenders for the last slot (OU vs. Wisconsin vs. Stanford vs. LSU) and possibly a higher ranked win than Georgia (Auburn) or Miami (Clemson) or Clemson (Auburn also).

TCU 2 ranked wins
Ohio St would have 3 ranked wins
USC would have 2 ranked wins
Alabama would have 2 ranked wins for sure, 3 if Fresno beats Boise. But just as important- only 1 loss...

Also just as a factoid that I heard.... 1st 3 years. The worst loss ANY playoff team has ever had in the regular sesaon. 14 points... (ohio st/va tech).

Ohio St lost 2 games by 15 and 31 points
USC lost by 35
TCU lost by 18

I think this scenario is actually really easy for the committee. Alabama and Ohio St get in.

Heck, I think it's no lock for TCU to be ahead of Oklahoma quite frankly.

I can't get over the Iowa loss for Ohio State...that wasn't just a loss, that was a butt--whooping curbstomp

And then there was the loss AT HOME to Oklahoma. I just don't think Ohio State has done enough to be considered one of the top 4 teams

If TCU, USC, and Ohio State win, and you put those teams in a group with Alabama as potential playoff participants, I would put the Buckeyes at the bottom

TCU would have the best win
USC would have the strongest schedule
Alabama would have the best record

Ohio State has the ugliest loss
(This post was last modified: 11-30-2017 04:34 PM by EvilVodka.)
11-30-2017 04:32 PM
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Post: #114
RE: so thoughts on CFP release
(11-30-2017 04:28 PM)YNot Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 03:54 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 03:13 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Can you give me just 1 win that USF has that is better than Fresno over Boise St? Heck, or over San Diego St as well. That's the problem with USF.
Wow - just looked at their wins - best win is over 6-6 Temple.
They beat an FCS
3 2-win teams
2 3-win teams
Single 4, 5 and 6 win teams

There are reasons both the AP and Coaches pollsters vote South Florida ahead of Fresno.

From another perspective,

South Florida lost at #14 UCF in the final minutes by 7 points and lost to 7-4 Houston by 4 points on a Hail Mary.

Fresno St. lost at #13 Washington by 32 points and to 5-7 UNLV at home by 10 points.

...

Common opponent = SJSU

South Florida 42-22 v. Fresno St. 27-10. Pretty close call there.

With Flowers, South Florida passes the eye test so much better than Fresno.

South Florida would beat Fresno State by a lot
11-30-2017 04:39 PM
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dbackjon Offline
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RE: so thoughts on CFP release
(11-30-2017 04:39 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 04:28 PM)YNot Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 03:54 PM)dbackjon Wrote:  
(11-30-2017 03:13 PM)stever20 Wrote:  Can you give me just 1 win that USF has that is better than Fresno over Boise St? Heck, or over San Diego St as well. That's the problem with USF.
Wow - just looked at their wins - best win is over 6-6 Temple.
They beat an FCS
3 2-win teams
2 3-win teams
Single 4, 5 and 6 win teams

There are reasons both the AP and Coaches pollsters vote South Florida ahead of Fresno.

From another perspective,

South Florida lost at #14 UCF in the final minutes by 7 points and lost to 7-4 Houston by 4 points on a Hail Mary.

Fresno St. lost at #13 Washington by 32 points and to 5-7 UNLV at home by 10 points.

...

Common opponent = SJSU

South Florida 42-22 v. Fresno St. 27-10. Pretty close call there.

With Flowers, South Florida passes the eye test so much better than Fresno.

South Florida would beat Fresno State by a lot

And you know this how?
11-30-2017 04:45 PM
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SC-KNIGHT Offline
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Post: #116
RE: so thoughts on CFP release
(11-26-2017 12:32 PM)Wedge Wrote:  If Ohio State wins its CCG, the committee's track record shows that they'll find whatever rationalization they need to get Ohio State into the playoff.

Barrett's hurt. Had some surgery but will play in the championship game at this point. Whiskey knocks him out early and goes on to win the game. 03-shhhh 04-jawdrop 01-lauramac2 05-mafia 04-cheers
11-30-2017 04:46 PM
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RUScarlets Offline
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Post: #117
RE: so thoughts on CFP release
OSU winning with a backup QB would go a long way... too little too late perhaps.

TCU needs to win 38-0 to have any shot along with an OSU win.

USC... no shot.
(This post was last modified: 11-30-2017 07:33 PM by RUScarlets.)
11-30-2017 07:33 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #118
RE: so thoughts on CFP release
We don't know what goes on inside the selection committee's meeting room. We don't know what the tough decisions were, or the easy ones. We only "know" what the chairman tells us on the reveal show, and we have no particular reason to believe him without reservation.

But we do have a window into the ultimate decision, and that is the AP Poll, which is fully transparent. We know exactly how everyone voted. Since we have no reason to believe their group of 61 voters is any more or less knowledgable or biased than the smaller group of committee members, how the AP voted is likely similar to how the committee voted. From the beginning, the committee's rankings have mirrored the polls pretty closely, and they are nearly identical is this latest version.

Without collaborating with each other (some might use the word "colluding" instead of "collaborating"), the Committee's top four teams are the same as the AP's, and by a wide margin. Of the 244 votes cast for #1 through #4 by the 61 poll voters, only 10 of those votes went to a team not in the committee's top four. Alabama got one second place, one third, and 3 fourth place votes. Georgia got one third and 4 fourths.

The only difference between the two groups is that the committee placed Auburn #2 and the AP has them at #4. If the committee was inclined to think Auburn deserved to be #4 and put them there, it would set up a semifinal rematch with Clemson. The simple solution is to put Auburn in the 2 vs 3 game instead.

There was a similar sharp break between #8 and #9 in the AP voting. Miami and Ohio State both received a few votes for #5 and #6, which resulted in their being clearcut #7 and #8 in the AP, while Penn State, TCU and Southern Cal got very little support until the #9 spot. UCF rounded out the top 12 teams (the presumptive NY6 teams).

Below UCF, only Washington (3), Notre Dame (1), LSU (1) and Oklahoma St (1) received a vote as the #10 team.

In my recollection, this is the most clear cut ranking of teams in recent years. Not much controversy here, so the talking heads will need to generate their own to keep people tuned in.
12-01-2017 12:55 PM
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