quo vadis
Legend
Posts: 50,194
Joined: Aug 2008
Reputation: 2427
I Root For: USF/Georgetown
Location: New Orleans
|
RE: Playoff Committee Bias
(11-23-2017 02:08 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: (11-23-2017 11:18 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (11-23-2017 10:30 AM)Attackcoog Wrote: (11-23-2017 07:56 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (11-22-2017 09:10 PM)Attackcoog Wrote: In reply--
1) Im one that has maintained pretty much for the last 2 years that a G5 does not have any way to make the play off and that Houston would not have been in last year had they run the table. I was unsure on the topic the first couple of years, then if became clear that G5's are not even allowed in the top ten. My guess is that "top 10" ranking is reserved for a 2016 Houston type that runs the table. A top 4 finish is impossible with the current structure of the committee.
2) No hypocrisy. I can easily see that it is reasonably plausible that some one-loss P5 teams SHOULD be in front of an undefeated G5. I see the silliness of 2, 3, and 4 loss P5's in front of an undefeated G5. I figured the AAC would at least get a 1-game deference vs the other G5's (and they largely have).
3) Really? Seriously? You "lol" at the prospect of UCF beating Notre Dame? That would be the same Notre Dame that barely squeaked by Navy just last week at home (same Navy UCF destroyed?)? I think UCF would prison rape that slow Wisconsin team. Oklahoma....didnt they get crushed by a 4-loss mid-pack AAC team just last year? Dont see Penn State as all that. So, yeah, that's nearly half Id flat out expect them beat. Plus, Id give them a punchers chance against all the rest but Bama. Your as blinded by a brand name as the committe. At some point you need to understand that the name on the jersey is just a name. Like mutual funds, past performance may not be a guarantee of future performance.
Im completely willing to concede they may not be a top 4 team (probably are not), but I know they are a top 10 team.
1) Wasn't talking about you specifically, just the general AAC community of loons who have drunk the P6 kool-aid, and there are many of them. It does explain the irrational whining about UCF's apparent "ceiling" in the CFP.
2) Plenty of hypocrisy, though not necessarily from you. Lots of boasting about alleged pro-AAC bias in the CFP compared to other G5 (which i haven't seen, btw), but anger at anti-AAC bias compared to P5. Can't have it both ways.
3) You seriously would favor UCF over Notre Dame? A team with much better players and with wins over much better teams?
Seriously, I've never seen you so unbalanced as in that #3 eruption above. UCF over Oklahoma and Wisconsin? Because they rout FIU and Memphis and Temple while schlepping by the likes of Navy and SMU?
Seriously?
UCF destroyed Navy? Funny, i recall Navy being down 24-21 with 7 minutes left with the ball at around the UCF 40. Looked like Navy was going to take the lead, and yet UCF somehow destroyed them? That's really weird.
Funny...a 10 point win over Navy in Annapolis (where Navy doesn’t lose a lot) is unimpressive. Yet your tellin* me m newness to think UCF could beat a Notre Dame squad that barel6 won a one score game in thier home stadium. Again, either unlikely G5 victory outcomes have been occurring at statistical rate that doesn5 make sense (75%) in the G5 vs P5 access bowl—or the polling is significantly underrating the G5. Given one is real results and one is simply opinion based on made up criteria like the “eye test”—the simplest outcome is most likely. The polls are under ranking the G5 champs (CFP being among the worst offenders).
By the way, the last 4 years is not some carefully selected sample. Over the course of the entire BCS/CFP history that winning G5vsP5 NYD Bowl winning percentage has been well above 50%—which is further FACT based data indicating the current bias against the top G5 teams is unreasonable. In fact, we don’t see that bias as much in polling prior to the CFP era. G5’s would sometimes rise into the top 10–even the top5. Today, the Selection Committee tends to influence the other polls far more than the other way around (which was the entire intent). So, essentially, not only is the current anti-G5 bias you support wrong headed, it’s a relatively recent phenomenon (at least in its current level of bias)—not some long held view.
You claimed UCF "destroyed" Navy. That was patently ridiculous so why are you still defending it?
The problem with your claim about underrating top G5 is that it's not just the human pollsters that have had the G5 team ranked behind their P5 bowl opponent.
Look at the Massey Composite where the G5 won the NY6 bowl the past four years: Houston was ranked behind FSU, Boise was ranked behind Arizona, and UCF was ranked behind Baylor, and in 2008 they had Utah behind Alabama.
So these wins were genuine upsets, not cases of underrated G5 really being better than their P5 opponents. So what explains that? one obvious factor would be the difference in motivation. No P5 team is excited to play a G5 in a major bowl, whereas the G5 team is chomping at the bit to beat the P5 and "prove themselves".
Polls and computers are meant to be “predictors” of on field results. They are just models and opinions. When they are wrong more often than right with respect to the performance of top G5 teams, it means the models/opinions are simply flawed. When a company works despite everyone saying it can’t be profitable—it’s not an upset. The opinion is just wrong. Used to be that the widespread opinion was a black QB just couldn’t be successful in the NFL. That opinion took a long time to unseat despite the fact it was disproven many times. Just because an opinion is widely held doesn’t make it right.
Is motivation a factor? Maybe. But let’s assume motivation IS a factor. So what? Motivation is part of football. Hell, motivation is the reason it is so difficult to end a season undefeated. Every team has additional motivation to beat you. That said, the idea that any team isn’t motivated to win a huge nationally televised CFP holiday bowl game in front of 70,000 fans is kind of a reach (especslly seniors playing thier last game).
Some computer models are predictive, others are not. E.g., Sagarin has different formulas for prediction and descriptive rankings, so the MC is likely a mish-mash of both. Beyond that, while it is clear how a human voter could be biased against a G5, as in "they play in a rinky dink conference so i just don't respect their achievements" it's not clear how a computer formula can be so biased. Do you think Peter Wolfe has a line of code that says "if team is from G5, deduct 5 points from its ranking"? That's highly unlikely.
No, rather than the entire universe of computers and pollsters being wrong, it's way more likely there's a "non-bias" explanation, and motivation is a good one.
And regarding motivation, the "so what?" is very important: If the reason G5 teams do well versus P5 in the NY6 bowls is motivation, than that doesn't mean there is anything biased about the process that puts the teams in those bowls, as this is a factor that is unique to playing a G5 team and thus doesn't reflect on the general quality of the P5 team in that game. The implication is that the P5 team would perform better if they were playing an opponent they respected and cared about beating. FSU doesn't show up for Houston, but they would for a Michigan or Texas.
And no, a lack of motivation isn't a stretch at all. The psychology of being "stuck" playing a UCF or a Western Michigan when you visualized yourself playing a blue blood like Georgia or LSU or USC or Ohio State is clear and obvious. Compounding that is the lack of upside. If you win, you know everyone will just say "so what, they beat a G5", if you lose, it's an embarrassment. Little glory = little motivation.
(This post was last modified: 11-23-2017 05:28 PM by quo vadis.)
|
|