(11-25-2017 09:18 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  Alabama needs help....they need either Ohio State to beat Wisconsin, or TCU to beat Oklahoma

I think both the ACC Champ and SEC Champ are in, Oklahoma is in if they win, and Wisconsin is in if they win

That's my guess as well. Bama is first in line if either OU or Wisky lose, and if both lose then it's a popularity contest between TCU and Ohio State for the 4th spot.

(11-25-2017 09:36 PM)Wedge Wrote:  

(11-25-2017 09:18 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  Alabama needs help....they need either Ohio State to beat Wisconsin, or TCU to beat Oklahoma

I think both the ACC Champ and SEC Champ are in, Oklahoma is in if they win, and Wisconsin is in if they win

That's my guess as well. Bama is first in line if either OU or Wisky lose, and if both lose then it's a popularity contest between TCU and Ohio State for the 4th spot.

Agreed

(11-25-2017 09:28 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(11-25-2017 09:06 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Alabama's resume is complete. They will be 11-1. I think they don't get the call, barring some really nutty results next week. Look at their resume...No wins over top 10 teams, and they played really soft against three of their four road games (Auburn, Texas A&M, Miss State). I think that it would be hard for the committee to pass over a SEC champion Auburn team or a SEC champion Georgia team both with more quality wins to take Alabama. I think the only way Alabama goes is as a 2nd SEC team. I'm not sure Alabama's record gets them there.

Lets look at the scenarios and Alabama's competition

SEC

If Auburn beats Georgia, they'll be hard to exclude. Sure they have two losses (two close losses on the road to Clemson and LSU). They'd have 2 losses, but three monster wins against Alabama and Georgia - twice (teams that don't have any other losses).

If Georgia wins, it gets a bit interesting. Georgia would be the SEC champion, and would have two big time wins to show for it...a rematch win against a 3 loss Auburn team and a win on the road at Notre Dame. On the minus side, they got absolutely crushed by Auburn. They would be 12-1

ACC

B1G

Wisconsin wins, they go to the playoffs. If they lose, then it opens the door (possibly) for Ohio State. Their schedule has been 'meh', but they would be undefeated. I don't think they have much of a resume if they lose.

Ohio State wins, they'd still be 11-2. They'd be in the discussion with Alabama in that scenario. They would have 2 losses, but one high profile win (Wisconsin) and another that might get called high profile (Penn State) They have a pretty bad loss to Iowa to offset it. That loss to Oklahoma could hurt them too, if it comes down to a choice between two teams.

For Alabama, the only way they take a slot from the B1G is if Ohio State wins and the committee decides to take Alabama instead. I'm not sure that would happen.

ACC

I'm assuming Clemson beats South Carolina. If they don't, well then that complicates things further, but is potentially helpful for Alabama. So Clemson has a nasty loss to a very bad Syracuse team, but has a high profile win against Auburn. If they win the ACC championship, they will have beaten Miami as well (which will have 2 losses in a row). I think they'd go over Alabama if they win out.

Miami - If they win out, they probably go over Alabama as they'd have wins over Notre Dame and Clemson. That loss to Pitt is WTF though.

Either way, the only way that Alabama takes a slot over the ACC champion is if South Carolina beats Clemson then Clemson beats Miami.

Big XII

Oklahoma would be 12-1 if they beat TCU. A mildly disappointing loss on the road to Iowa State. And they have a win over Ohio State in their pocket. So wins versus TCU and Ohio State, plus a championship....they probably would go before Alabama

TCU would be 11-2. Their schedule is 'meh'. If they win, they'd have a record of 1-1 versus OU and no other statement wins. 2 losses to OU and Iowa State don't really help their case.

I think Alabama might have a chance to go before a Big XII champion TCU team

PAC 12

Stanford isn't going anywhere in the CFP with 3 losses, even if they win the Pac 12

Washington will be 11-2 if they win out, and would have zero top 10 wins other than perhaps USC (doubtful they'd be in the top 10), plus a pretty bad loss to Arizona State.

Washington State will be 11-2 if they win out. They would have 2 wins over USC if they win out (probably not top 10 if they lose) and 2 blowout losses to California and Zona. They're not likely to go to the playoffs

If USC wins, they'd be 11-2. Their resume is pretty Spartan too, with no top 10 wins (at seasons' end). Got absolutely CRUSHED by Notre Dame.

----

And then there's Notre Dame, which would be 10-2 if they win out. A win over USC and two losses to top teams (Miami and Georgia) probably isn't going to be enough to put them in the playoffs.

-------------

Now we rank the teams assuming they win out

All of these teams should control their destiny

1. Wisconsin (only undefeated team, conference champion)
2. Georgia (1 loss, conference champion, win over Notre Dame and Auburn, only loss being to a top team)
3. Clemson (1 loss, conference champion, win over Auburn and Miami)
4. Miami (1 loss, conference champion, win over Notre Dame and Clemson)
5. Oklahoma (1 loss, conference champion, win over TCU and Ohio State)
6. Auburn (2 losses, conference champion, 2 wins over Georgia and 1 vs Alabama, would be on a hot streak too at year's end)

----

The problem for Alabama is I think Ohio State would get picked over Alabama in the event that they beat Wisconsin.

----

So Alabama's problem is that there's no way to knock a Big Ten or SEC team out from in front of them. And if Clemson beats South Carolnia, there's no way to knock an ACC team out from in front of them. So that leaves one possible path for them.....have TCU beat OU, and somehow convince the committee that Alabama's resume is better than TCU's. Alabama *might* be able to make that argument, as TCU has 2 losses. But they'd be a conference champion with at least one win over a top team. Plus Ohio State has to beat Wisconsin and then they have to convince the committee that they're more deserving than Ohio State.


Basically they need multiple hits of South Carolina over Clemson, Clemson over Miami, Ohio State over Wisconsin, and TCU over Oklahoma. They probably want Auburn over Georgia too. And even then, it wouldn't be a done deal.

I don't think Ohio State gets in over Alabama by any means. You'd have to be nuts to put the Buckeyes in ovet Bama.

Bama has a better record and wins the eye-test

Ohio State lost to a mediocre Iowa team...badly

are you just going to sweep that under the rug?? I think Alabama gets in over the Buckeyes

But look at Alabama's record objectively.

Alabama would have the same amount of wins
Ohio State would have 1 more loss than Alabama (and its a bad one too)
Ohio State would have wins over Penn State and Wisconsin...Alabama's wins would be over (1 team with at least 3 losses, 2 with at least 4 losses, and some really not great teams (to say the least). To be fair, they tried to schedule a good team OOC, but that team decided to suck this year. They also have played poorly in their last 3 road games.

I think in order to exclude a conference for another conference to get 2 teams in, there probably will need to be some obvious separation.....and Alabama's record this year is good, but doesn't really get there. I might be wrong, but I think that Ohio State would go before Alabama....TCU or the Pac 12....now that's a scenario that might be better for Alabama. '

OSU doesn't deserve to be there..... every time I think of them I think of Oklahoma planting their flag on the 50 like the over rated chumps they are. I hate Alabama but its clear to me that a 1 loss team that loses to a 6 rank team as their only loss deserves to get in. Two loss teams champions or not should be second consideration....I don't even think a 2 loss P5 should be ahead of a 0 loss AAC team .... its kinda garbage.

(11-25-2017 10:04 PM)nobledictator1278 Wrote:  OSU doesn't deserve to be there..... every time I think of them I think of Oklahoma planting their flag on the 50 like the over rated chumps they are. I hate Alabama but its clear to me that a 1 loss team that loses to a 6 rank team as their only loss deserves to get in. Two loss teams champions or not should be second consideration....I don't even think a 2 loss P5 should be ahead of a 0 loss AAC team .... its kinda garbage.

Agreed

Iowa beat Ohio State 55-24! And that was just at the beginning of November. Why is the committee supposed to give a pass to them every year?

(11-25-2017 09:09 PM)AubTiger16 Wrote:  I agree, it was brought up earlier during the game as well as Gameday regarding the Clemson loss and how the committee see's Clemson's loss to Syracuse as a half loss or not really an issue. Once HoD brought up injuries you know I had to throw it out even more. Point is we all have them. We lose because of them. Everyone.

Having said that though, if you have watched Auburn at all, you know how valuable KJ is. I hope we have him back for the SEC Championship game and that his injury isn't too severe. He has a bright future in the sport.

Gus has been running KJ like a rented mule. Hopefully he'll get a Heisman invite.

(11-25-2017 09:40 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(11-25-2017 09:28 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(11-25-2017 09:06 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Alabama's resume is complete. They will be 11-1. I think they don't get the call, barring some really nutty results next week. Look at their resume...No wins over top 10 teams, and they played really soft against three of their four road games (Auburn, Texas A&M, Miss State). I think that it would be hard for the committee to pass over a SEC champion Auburn team or a SEC champion Georgia team both with more quality wins to take Alabama. I think the only way Alabama goes is as a 2nd SEC team. I'm not sure Alabama's record gets them there.

Lets look at the scenarios and Alabama's competition

SEC

If Auburn beats Georgia, they'll be hard to exclude. Sure they have two losses (two close losses on the road to Clemson and LSU). They'd have 2 losses, but three monster wins against Alabama and Georgia - twice (teams that don't have any other losses).

If Georgia wins, it gets a bit interesting. Georgia would be the SEC champion, and would have two big time wins to show for it...a rematch win against a 3 loss Auburn team and a win on the road at Notre Dame. On the minus side, they got absolutely crushed by Auburn. They would be 12-1

ACC

B1G

Wisconsin wins, they go to the playoffs. If they lose, then it opens the door (possibly) for Ohio State. Their schedule has been 'meh', but they would be undefeated. I don't think they have much of a resume if they lose.

Ohio State wins, they'd still be 11-2. They'd be in the discussion with Alabama in that scenario. They would have 2 losses, but one high profile win (Wisconsin) and another that might get called high profile (Penn State) They have a pretty bad loss to Iowa to offset it. That loss to Oklahoma could hurt them too, if it comes down to a choice between two teams.

For Alabama, the only way they take a slot from the B1G is if Ohio State wins and the committee decides to take Alabama instead. I'm not sure that would happen.

ACC

I'm assuming Clemson beats South Carolina. If they don't, well then that complicates things further, but is potentially helpful for Alabama. So Clemson has a nasty loss to a very bad Syracuse team, but has a high profile win against Auburn. If they win the ACC championship, they will have beaten Miami as well (which will have 2 losses in a row). I think they'd go over Alabama if they win out.

Miami - If they win out, they probably go over Alabama as they'd have wins over Notre Dame and Clemson. That loss to Pitt is WTF though.

Either way, the only way that Alabama takes a slot over the ACC champion is if South Carolina beats Clemson then Clemson beats Miami.

Big XII

Oklahoma would be 12-1 if they beat TCU. A mildly disappointing loss on the road to Iowa State. And they have a win over Ohio State in their pocket. So wins versus TCU and Ohio State, plus a championship....they probably would go before Alabama

TCU would be 11-2. Their schedule is 'meh'. If they win, they'd have a record of 1-1 versus OU and no other statement wins. 2 losses to OU and Iowa State don't really help their case.

I think Alabama might have a chance to go before a Big XII champion TCU team

PAC 12

Stanford isn't going anywhere in the CFP with 3 losses, even if they win the Pac 12

Washington will be 11-2 if they win out, and would have zero top 10 wins other than perhaps USC (doubtful they'd be in the top 10), plus a pretty bad loss to Arizona State.

Washington State will be 11-2 if they win out. They would have 2 wins over USC if they win out (probably not top 10 if they lose) and 2 blowout losses to California and Zona. They're not likely to go to the playoffs

If USC wins, they'd be 11-2. Their resume is pretty Spartan too, with no top 10 wins (at seasons' end). Got absolutely CRUSHED by Notre Dame.

----

And then there's Notre Dame, which would be 10-2 if they win out. A win over USC and two losses to top teams (Miami and Georgia) probably isn't going to be enough to put them in the playoffs.

-------------

Now we rank the teams assuming they win out

All of these teams should control their destiny

1. Wisconsin (only undefeated team, conference champion)
2. Georgia (1 loss, conference champion, win over Notre Dame and Auburn, only loss being to a top team)
3. Clemson (1 loss, conference champion, win over Auburn and Miami)
4. Miami (1 loss, conference champion, win over Notre Dame and Clemson)
5. Oklahoma (1 loss, conference champion, win over TCU and Ohio State)
6. Auburn (2 losses, conference champion, 2 wins over Georgia and 1 vs Alabama, would be on a hot streak too at year's end)

----

The problem for Alabama is I think Ohio State would get picked over Alabama in the event that they beat Wisconsin.

----

So Alabama's problem is that there's no way to knock a Big Ten or SEC team out from in front of them. And if Clemson beats South Carolnia, there's no way to knock an ACC team out from in front of them. So that leaves one possible path for them.....have TCU beat OU, and somehow convince the committee that Alabama's resume is better than TCU's. Alabama *might* be able to make that argument, as TCU has 2 losses. But they'd be a conference champion with at least one win over a top team. Plus Ohio State has to beat Wisconsin and then they have to convince the committee that they're more deserving than Ohio State.


Basically they need multiple hits of South Carolina over Clemson, Clemson over Miami, Ohio State over Wisconsin, and TCU over Oklahoma. They probably want Auburn over Georgia too. And even then, it wouldn't be a done deal.

I don't think Ohio State gets in over Alabama by any means. You'd have to be nuts to put the Buckeyes in ovet Bama.

Bama has a better record and wins the eye-test

Ohio State lost to a mediocre Iowa team...badly

are you just going to sweep that under the rug?? I think Alabama gets in over the Buckeyes

But look at Alabama's record objectively.

Alabama would have the same amount of wins
Ohio State would have 1 more loss than Alabama (and its a bad one too)
Ohio State would have wins over Penn State and Wisconsin...Alabama's wins would be over (1 team with at least 3 losses, 2 with at least 4 losses, and some really not great teams (to say the least). To be fair, they tried to schedule a good team OOC, but that team decided to suck this year. They also have played poorly in their last 3 road games.

I think in order to exclude a conference for another conference to get 2 teams in, there probably will need to be some obvious separation.....and Alabama's record this year is good, but doesn't really get there. I might be wrong, but I think that Ohio State would go before Alabama....TCU or the Pac 12....now that's a scenario that might be better for Alabama. '

Losing to Iowa 55-24 will bury Ohio State. There's just no real way to get around that, IMO.

Now agreed, the committee has twice bent over backwards to get Ohio State in, as they are just about the biggest brand in the country.

But if there's one brand that is as big or bigger, it's Alabama.

I wouldn't bet my life on it, but if it comes down to Alabama vs Ohio State** for the last playoff spot, i think it goes to Alabama.

The last couple weeks, things had been going miraculously right for Ohio State, but Alabama losing was a big thing that went wrong yesterday.

** FWIW, I don't think it will, I think Wisconsin will beat Ohio State in the title game, making it a moot point. I also don't think Alabama will get in, because Georgia will beat Auburn, so the playoffs will be Oklahoma, Clemson, Wisconsin, and Georgia.

(11-26-2017 08:08 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-25-2017 09:40 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(11-25-2017 09:28 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(11-25-2017 09:06 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Alabama's resume is complete. They will be 11-1. I think they don't get the call, barring some really nutty results next week. Look at their resume...No wins over top 10 teams, and they played really soft against three of their four road games (Auburn, Texas A&M, Miss State). I think that it would be hard for the committee to pass over a SEC champion Auburn team or a SEC champion Georgia team both with more quality wins to take Alabama. I think the only way Alabama goes is as a 2nd SEC team. I'm not sure Alabama's record gets them there.

Lets look at the scenarios and Alabama's competition

SEC

If Auburn beats Georgia, they'll be hard to exclude. Sure they have two losses (two close losses on the road to Clemson and LSU). They'd have 2 losses, but three monster wins against Alabama and Georgia - twice (teams that don't have any other losses).

If Georgia wins, it gets a bit interesting. Georgia would be the SEC champion, and would have two big time wins to show for it...a rematch win against a 3 loss Auburn team and a win on the road at Notre Dame. On the minus side, they got absolutely crushed by Auburn. They would be 12-1

ACC

B1G

Wisconsin wins, they go to the playoffs. If they lose, then it opens the door (possibly) for Ohio State. Their schedule has been 'meh', but they would be undefeated. I don't think they have much of a resume if they lose.

Ohio State wins, they'd still be 11-2. They'd be in the discussion with Alabama in that scenario. They would have 2 losses, but one high profile win (Wisconsin) and another that might get called high profile (Penn State) They have a pretty bad loss to Iowa to offset it. That loss to Oklahoma could hurt them too, if it comes down to a choice between two teams.

For Alabama, the only way they take a slot from the B1G is if Ohio State wins and the committee decides to take Alabama instead. I'm not sure that would happen.

ACC

I'm assuming Clemson beats South Carolina. If they don't, well then that complicates things further, but is potentially helpful for Alabama. So Clemson has a nasty loss to a very bad Syracuse team, but has a high profile win against Auburn. If they win the ACC championship, they will have beaten Miami as well (which will have 2 losses in a row). I think they'd go over Alabama if they win out.

Miami - If they win out, they probably go over Alabama as they'd have wins over Notre Dame and Clemson. That loss to Pitt is WTF though.

Either way, the only way that Alabama takes a slot over the ACC champion is if South Carolina beats Clemson then Clemson beats Miami.

Big XII

Oklahoma would be 12-1 if they beat TCU. A mildly disappointing loss on the road to Iowa State. And they have a win over Ohio State in their pocket. So wins versus TCU and Ohio State, plus a championship....they probably would go before Alabama

TCU would be 11-2. Their schedule is 'meh'. If they win, they'd have a record of 1-1 versus OU and no other statement wins. 2 losses to OU and Iowa State don't really help their case.

I think Alabama might have a chance to go before a Big XII champion TCU team

PAC 12

Stanford isn't going anywhere in the CFP with 3 losses, even if they win the Pac 12

Washington will be 11-2 if they win out, and would have zero top 10 wins other than perhaps USC (doubtful they'd be in the top 10), plus a pretty bad loss to Arizona State.

Washington State will be 11-2 if they win out. They would have 2 wins over USC if they win out (probably not top 10 if they lose) and 2 blowout losses to California and Zona. They're not likely to go to the playoffs

If USC wins, they'd be 11-2. Their resume is pretty Spartan too, with no top 10 wins (at seasons' end). Got absolutely CRUSHED by Notre Dame.

----

And then there's Notre Dame, which would be 10-2 if they win out. A win over USC and two losses to top teams (Miami and Georgia) probably isn't going to be enough to put them in the playoffs.

-------------

Now we rank the teams assuming they win out

All of these teams should control their destiny

1. Wisconsin (only undefeated team, conference champion)
2. Georgia (1 loss, conference champion, win over Notre Dame and Auburn, only loss being to a top team)
3. Clemson (1 loss, conference champion, win over Auburn and Miami)
4. Miami (1 loss, conference champion, win over Notre Dame and Clemson)
5. Oklahoma (1 loss, conference champion, win over TCU and Ohio State)
6. Auburn (2 losses, conference champion, 2 wins over Georgia and 1 vs Alabama, would be on a hot streak too at year's end)

----

The problem for Alabama is I think Ohio State would get picked over Alabama in the event that they beat Wisconsin.

----

So Alabama's problem is that there's no way to knock a Big Ten or SEC team out from in front of them. And if Clemson beats South Carolnia, there's no way to knock an ACC team out from in front of them. So that leaves one possible path for them.....have TCU beat OU, and somehow convince the committee that Alabama's resume is better than TCU's. Alabama *might* be able to make that argument, as TCU has 2 losses. But they'd be a conference champion with at least one win over a top team. Plus Ohio State has to beat Wisconsin and then they have to convince the committee that they're more deserving than Ohio State.


Basically they need multiple hits of South Carolina over Clemson, Clemson over Miami, Ohio State over Wisconsin, and TCU over Oklahoma. They probably want Auburn over Georgia too. And even then, it wouldn't be a done deal.

I don't think Ohio State gets in over Alabama by any means. You'd have to be nuts to put the Buckeyes in ovet Bama.

Bama has a better record and wins the eye-test

Ohio State lost to a mediocre Iowa team...badly

are you just going to sweep that under the rug?? I think Alabama gets in over the Buckeyes

But look at Alabama's record objectively.

Alabama would have the same amount of wins
Ohio State would have 1 more loss than Alabama (and its a bad one too)
Ohio State would have wins over Penn State and Wisconsin...Alabama's wins would be over (1 team with at least 3 losses, 2 with at least 4 losses, and some really not great teams (to say the least). To be fair, they tried to schedule a good team OOC, but that team decided to suck this year. They also have played poorly in their last 3 road games.

I think in order to exclude a conference for another conference to get 2 teams in, there probably will need to be some obvious separation.....and Alabama's record this year is good, but doesn't really get there. I might be wrong, but I think that Ohio State would go before Alabama....TCU or the Pac 12....now that's a scenario that might be better for Alabama. '

Losing to Iowa 55-24 will bury Ohio State. There's just no real way to get around that, IMO.

Now agreed, the committee has twice bent over backwards to get Ohio State in, as they are just about the biggest brand in the country.

But if there's one brand that is as big or bigger, it's Alabama.

I wouldn't bet my life on it, but if it comes down to Alabama vs Ohio State** for the last playoff spot, i think it goes to Alabama.

The last couple weeks, things had been going miraculously right for Ohio State, but Alabama losing was a big thing that went wrong yesterday.

** FWIW, I don't think it will, I think Wisconsin will beat Ohio State in the title game, making it a moot point. I also don't think Alabama will get in, because Georgia will beat Auburn, so the playoffs will be Oklahoma, Clemson, Wisconsin, and Georgia.

Objectively, if Ohio State beats Wisconsin, Ohio State's overall body of work compares favorably to Alabama's. Alabama's biggest problem is that their SOS is not very strong and they have few quality wins. Using Sagarin ratings:

Overall record:
Ohio State 11-2
Alabama 11-1

Record vs Top 10 Teams:
Ohio State: 2-1
Alabama 0-1

Record vs. Top 30 Teams:
Ohio State: 4-2
Alabama: 2-1

Strength of Schedule:
Ohio State (42) (will move up after Wisconsin)
Alabama (54) (Wisconsin is criticized for its schedule which is ranked 61)

Conference Championships:
Ohio State

If Alabama gets in, it will be because of factors such as the "eye test".

(11-26-2017 08:35 AM)MadisonHawk Wrote:  

(11-26-2017 08:08 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-25-2017 09:40 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  

(11-25-2017 09:28 PM)EvilVodka Wrote:  

(11-25-2017 09:06 PM)Tom in Lazybrook Wrote:  Alabama's resume is complete. They will be 11-1. I think they don't get the call, barring some really nutty results next week. Look at their resume...No wins over top 10 teams, and they played really soft against three of their four road games (Auburn, Texas A&M, Miss State). I think that it would be hard for the committee to pass over a SEC champion Auburn team or a SEC champion Georgia team both with more quality wins to take Alabama. I think the only way Alabama goes is as a 2nd SEC team. I'm not sure Alabama's record gets them there.

Lets look at the scenarios and Alabama's competition

SEC

If Auburn beats Georgia, they'll be hard to exclude. Sure they have two losses (two close losses on the road to Clemson and LSU). They'd have 2 losses, but three monster wins against Alabama and Georgia - twice (teams that don't have any other losses).

If Georgia wins, it gets a bit interesting. Georgia would be the SEC champion, and would have two big time wins to show for it...a rematch win against a 3 loss Auburn team and a win on the road at Notre Dame. On the minus side, they got absolutely crushed by Auburn. They would be 12-1

ACC

B1G

Wisconsin wins, they go to the playoffs. If they lose, then it opens the door (possibly) for Ohio State. Their schedule has been 'meh', but they would be undefeated. I don't think they have much of a resume if they lose.

Ohio State wins, they'd still be 11-2. They'd be in the discussion with Alabama in that scenario. They would have 2 losses, but one high profile win (Wisconsin) and another that might get called high profile (Penn State) They have a pretty bad loss to Iowa to offset it. That loss to Oklahoma could hurt them too, if it comes down to a choice between two teams.

For Alabama, the only way they take a slot from the B1G is if Ohio State wins and the committee decides to take Alabama instead. I'm not sure that would happen.

ACC

I'm assuming Clemson beats South Carolina. If they don't, well then that complicates things further, but is potentially helpful for Alabama. So Clemson has a nasty loss to a very bad Syracuse team, but has a high profile win against Auburn. If they win the ACC championship, they will have beaten Miami as well (which will have 2 losses in a row). I think they'd go over Alabama if they win out.

Miami - If they win out, they probably go over Alabama as they'd have wins over Notre Dame and Clemson. That loss to Pitt is WTF though.

Either way, the only way that Alabama takes a slot over the ACC champion is if South Carolina beats Clemson then Clemson beats Miami.

Big XII

Oklahoma would be 12-1 if they beat TCU. A mildly disappointing loss on the road to Iowa State. And they have a win over Ohio State in their pocket. So wins versus TCU and Ohio State, plus a championship....they probably would go before Alabama

TCU would be 11-2. Their schedule is 'meh'. If they win, they'd have a record of 1-1 versus OU and no other statement wins. 2 losses to OU and Iowa State don't really help their case.

I think Alabama might have a chance to go before a Big XII champion TCU team

PAC 12

Stanford isn't going anywhere in the CFP with 3 losses, even if they win the Pac 12

Washington will be 11-2 if they win out, and would have zero top 10 wins other than perhaps USC (doubtful they'd be in the top 10), plus a pretty bad loss to Arizona State.

Washington State will be 11-2 if they win out. They would have 2 wins over USC if they win out (probably not top 10 if they lose) and 2 blowout losses to California and Zona. They're not likely to go to the playoffs

If USC wins, they'd be 11-2. Their resume is pretty Spartan too, with no top 10 wins (at seasons' end). Got absolutely CRUSHED by Notre Dame.

----

And then there's Notre Dame, which would be 10-2 if they win out. A win over USC and two losses to top teams (Miami and Georgia) probably isn't going to be enough to put them in the playoffs.

-------------

Now we rank the teams assuming they win out

All of these teams should control their destiny

1. Wisconsin (only undefeated team, conference champion)
2. Georgia (1 loss, conference champion, win over Notre Dame and Auburn, only loss being to a top team)
3. Clemson (1 loss, conference champion, win over Auburn and Miami)
4. Miami (1 loss, conference champion, win over Notre Dame and Clemson)
5. Oklahoma (1 loss, conference champion, win over TCU and Ohio State)
6. Auburn (2 losses, conference champion, 2 wins over Georgia and 1 vs Alabama, would be on a hot streak too at year's end)

----

The problem for Alabama is I think Ohio State would get picked over Alabama in the event that they beat Wisconsin.

----

So Alabama's problem is that there's no way to knock a Big Ten or SEC team out from in front of them. And if Clemson beats South Carolnia, there's no way to knock an ACC team out from in front of them. So that leaves one possible path for them.....have TCU beat OU, and somehow convince the committee that Alabama's resume is better than TCU's. Alabama *might* be able to make that argument, as TCU has 2 losses. But they'd be a conference champion with at least one win over a top team. Plus Ohio State has to beat Wisconsin and then they have to convince the committee that they're more deserving than Ohio State.


Basically they need multiple hits of South Carolina over Clemson, Clemson over Miami, Ohio State over Wisconsin, and TCU over Oklahoma. They probably want Auburn over Georgia too. And even then, it wouldn't be a done deal.

I don't think Ohio State gets in over Alabama by any means. You'd have to be nuts to put the Buckeyes in ovet Bama.

Bama has a better record and wins the eye-test

Ohio State lost to a mediocre Iowa team...badly

are you just going to sweep that under the rug?? I think Alabama gets in over the Buckeyes

But look at Alabama's record objectively.

Alabama would have the same amount of wins
Ohio State would have 1 more loss than Alabama (and its a bad one too)
Ohio State would have wins over Penn State and Wisconsin...Alabama's wins would be over (1 team with at least 3 losses, 2 with at least 4 losses, and some really not great teams (to say the least). To be fair, they tried to schedule a good team OOC, but that team decided to suck this year. They also have played poorly in their last 3 road games.

I think in order to exclude a conference for another conference to get 2 teams in, there probably will need to be some obvious separation.....and Alabama's record this year is good, but doesn't really get there. I might be wrong, but I think that Ohio State would go before Alabama....TCU or the Pac 12....now that's a scenario that might be better for Alabama. '

Losing to Iowa 55-24 will bury Ohio State. There's just no real way to get around that, IMO.

Now agreed, the committee has twice bent over backwards to get Ohio State in, as they are just about the biggest brand in the country.

But if there's one brand that is as big or bigger, it's Alabama.

I wouldn't bet my life on it, but if it comes down to Alabama vs Ohio State** for the last playoff spot, i think it goes to Alabama.

The last couple weeks, things had been going miraculously right for Ohio State, but Alabama losing was a big thing that went wrong yesterday.

** FWIW, I don't think it will, I think Wisconsin will beat Ohio State in the title game, making it a moot point. I also don't think Alabama will get in, because Georgia will beat Auburn, so the playoffs will be Oklahoma, Clemson, Wisconsin, and Georgia.

Objectively, if Ohio State beats Wisconsin, Ohio State's overall body of work compares favorably to Alabama's. Alabama's biggest problem is that there SOS is not very strong and they have few quality wins. Using Sagarin ratings:

Overall record:
Ohio State 11-2
Alabama 11-1

Record vs Top 10 Teams:
Ohio State: 2-1
Alabama 0-1

Record vs. Top 30 Teams:
Ohio State: 4-2
Alabama: 2-1

Strength of Schedule:
Ohio State (42) (will move up after Wisconsin)
Alabama (54) (Wisconsin is criticized for its schedule which is ranked 61)

Conference Championships:
Ohio State

If Alabama gets in, it will be because of factors such as the "eye test".

55-24