otown
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RE: An analysis of Arkansas-MS State.... CFP style
(11-22-2017 02:46 PM)quo vadis Wrote: (11-22-2017 08:26 AM)otown Wrote: (11-22-2017 07:48 AM)quo vadis Wrote: (11-22-2017 06:39 AM)otown Wrote: (11-21-2017 10:49 PM)quo vadis Wrote: No they won't. We already know that there will be no "reevaluations of the system", because we already had cases like that under the old BCS. E.g., in 2006, Boise beat #7 Oklahoma in the Fiesta Bowl to finish as the only undefeated team in the country, but nobody said they shoulda been in the title game that pitted Florida (with 1 loss) vs Ohio State.
Similarly, in 2008, Utah beat #4 Alabama in the Sugar Bowl to also finish as the only undefeated team in the country, but nobody said they should have gotten to play in the title game instead of 1-loss Florida and 1-loss Oklahoma. In neither case was there a groundswell of calls to reevaluate the system.
And remember, Boise in 2006 and Utah in 2008 won BCS bowls against considerably better teams than UCF is likely to face. In 2008, Alabama was the SEC West champ and ranked #1 for most of the year until they lost the SEC title game in the waning minutes to Florida. Oklahoma in 2006 was the Big 12 champion back when the Big 12 still had Nebraska, Colorado, and Texas A/M.
UCF, in contrast, will likely face a lesser team, definitely not a conference champ, probably a team ranked #10 or #11 with at least two losses. That just won't have the same impact that beating a higher-ranked team would.
Also, let's face it: I think everyone kind of understands that if you are a big-time P5 school, a Georgia or an FSU or an Alabama, and you end up playing a G5 team in an NY6 bowl, it's probably a big let-down, you probably had national title hopes recently dashed, and then, when you were licking your wounds and trying to come to terms with it, you think "well, you know, playing Notre Dame or Ohio State in the Cotton Bowl isn't all that bad", then .. you find out you're playing Houston or UCF instead, and that makes it a double-deflation.
In contrast, for the G5 school, well, it's our Super Bowl.
Quo, you are the last person I would have expected to catch the point, so it doesn't surprise me. That Boise team and Utah team still get talked about today how they got screwed. However, back then, there was a computer and a simple ranking system of 1 vs 2 for the title. There was not much subjectivity to the process minus the few human polls that were factored in the BCS. I think there will be talk by the talking heads if it's a resounding win at the Peach bowl. Then next year, they will be ranked preseason and you bet your butt there will be pressure to put them in if they run the table. Whether they succumb completely to the pressure, who knows, but I certainly think they would get in over a 2 loss team next year.......which is different this year where there is zero chance over a 2 loss team. UCF is building a 25 game resume.
As a Florida fan, I remember remember very well that Alabama team. I can also honestly say that that Utah team would have given us problems in a game as well that year. They were that good, and they probably would have won the SEC that year too.
It's all about outside influence and perception. UCF will become the new white elephant sitting in the room next year if they handily win the Peach. And don't kid yourself about a let down game excuse, whoever we play most likely will have known that they didn't have a shot of going to the CFP because they probably will be rank 6 through 10 going into the last week and needed a lot of dominos to fall to even have a chance.
As usual, you get things almost completely wrong. First, Boise and Utah are slightly remembered these days for their upset wins in those BCS bowls - especially Boise, because of the famous way their game ended - but nobody seriously says they were screwed out of a shot at the title. Second, the BCS ranking system was loaded with subjectivity, as the main component in the rankings were two human polls.
Third, yes, if UCF wins the Peach Bowl over a #11 I don't know who, sure, when analyzing the game a talking head will say "I wonder how this team would do in the playoffs vs Alabama", but that will be it, the playoffs themselves will proceed with all the legitimacy they currently have, if you think otherwise you're delusional.
As for next year, you ramble on about that but I never commented on it. FWIW, if UCF wins the Peach, yes, you will be highly ranked going in to next year, like Houston was last year after winning the 2015 Peach. But no, if your schedule sucks like it does this year, you won't make the playoffs next year, period.
Finally, it is silly to think that a P5 good enough to make an NY6 isn't disappointed to lose out on the playoffs, and then double-bummed to have to play the G5 rep. That's the long straw in the draw nobody wants, because it's all downside - win and nobody cares, lose and you get scoffed at. It basically ruins the good feeling of going to an NY6 bowl. It's the way it is. 
First, yes they do talk. It occasional comes up with talking heads, hell, that Boise team is still talked about. It was also talked about when they were devising the new CFP system (not that it made much difference), and yes, it occasionally breaks into conversations at P5 tailgates when we talk about our glory days and the CF landscape back before our two albatross coaching hires. It it surely is talked about on message boards, case in point here. The only delusional ones are the narrow minded individuals that pretend its not talked about. One Pinocchio coffee mug for you.
Secondly, I did mention that the BCS had human polls in it. Nice of you to ignore that fact, but there was also plenty of non subjective formulas that went into it. 2 Pinocchio coffee mugs for you
Third, you need to stop putting liquor in that coffee mug since you now seem to think you are a committee member. You have no clue how talking heads and the noise will affect their ranking in that scenario because they have never really been put in that scenario before in the CFP era. So please lay off the booze and stop talking in absolutes. 3 Irish coffees for you I guess on that one
Lastly, "win and nobody cares, lose and you get scoffed at".......... I don't know about you, but I sure as hell wouldn't want to be "that team that loses to a G5". This whole argument that you bought into is ridiculous. Maybe its because you never played competitive sports and just like watching sports on TV, I don't know...... however, that's an easy cop out excuse. Especially from a P5 perspective, they would rather curb stomp the G5, prove that the G5 don't belong, make an argument that the committee messed up not including them, and hope next year that P5 team will be given the benefit of the doubt.
So, please try to not be narrow minded. I tell ya, you will enjoy life better.
*Sigh*.
First, as i said, those Utah and Boise wins are mentioned. But as i also correctly said, nobody seriously argues that they were screwed out of a shot at the title - the issue here. There is no public perception "asterisk" behind Florida's titles those years. Nor will there be this year if UCF goes unbeaten and wins the Peach Bowl. Wishful Knights fan thinking.
Second, you mentioned that the BCS had human polls, but still claimed there was "not much subjectivity" in the process, when in fact the human polls were always 50% to 75% of the BCS process, meaning there was a whole lot of subjectivity in it. That's what i was correcting you about.
Third, we'll see about next year when next year comes, but unless UCF has Oklahoma and Louisville scheduled like Houston did last year, playoff talk is silly. The CFP ain't putting a UCF that beats a bunch of AAC teams and one or two bottom-feeder P5 in to the playoffs. Mark my words.
Finally, sure, the coaches of the P5 will try to fire their kids up to beat UCF or Boise or whoever the G5 rep is, and will use arguments like yours. But it doesn't work, and anyone can see why: Getting stuck with the G5 team in your major bowl just sucks, and there's no glossing lipstick on that pig. Or Knight.
First, as a Gator fan before I became a UCF fan as well, there is no asterisk, but I can say that the topic has come up in conversation occasionally as "wasn't that the year............." Yes, it pisses me off.
Second, the subjectivity certainly was watered down by the computers, no escaping that fact.
Third, I did not say that they will get in in any scenario....... but I do think they would get in over a random 2 loss team that may not have as strong as a resume. This season, any P5 with a pulse and only 2 wins gets in, hell, they seem to think a 3 loss MS State has what it takes after their miraculous Arkansas win. Next year, that may not be the case in my above scenario.
Lastly, yes, maybe a narrow minded individual like yourself would feel that way. Like I said before, you would be devastated winning a million bucks on Powerball because you did not win the whole thing.
(This post was last modified: 11-22-2017 03:20 PM by otown.)
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An analysis of Arkansas-MS State.... CFP style
