Surprised by the number of people picking Furman over Elon, Elon already beat Furman earlier this year AT Furman, and will be hosting. What’s changed to give Furman the edge now?

I think Elon could surprise people and win at least a couple games. Only losses were to us, FBS Toledo, and a relatively close one at UNH.

Furman improved over the course of the year, I'm not sure I feel confident in Elon. I think they got more lucky with a lot of close wins than they are good. That's just my opinion. Delaware, Richmond, and Villanova all looked better to me than Elon.

I picked Furman because Elon barely beat Furman back then. They had Malcolm Summers rushing his head off back then. Their offense has taken a noticeable drop off since then. They've dropped their final two games of the regular season and were dominated in both losses too. They have one of the statistically worst offenses of the entire playoff field and that's WITH Malcolm Summers rushing stats factored into their numbers. Their defense was nothing noteworthy and that won't get you far in the playoffs against far better teams. Additionally Furman has shown much improvement since their early season Elon game

Wonder if the elevation difference between Western Illinois and Weber State will factor in at all? Going from playing at 674 ft to 4780 ft.

(11-22-2017 11:11 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  Surprised by the number of people picking Furman over Elon, Elon already beat Furman earlier this year AT Furman, and will be hosting. What’s changed to give Furman the edge now?

I think Elon could surprise people and win at least a couple games. Only losses were to us, FBS Toledo, and a relatively close one at UNH.

not trying to BDK you... but... I don't know that I'd consider the UNH game a relatively close one... they were shut out for 56 minutes and 44 seconds!

They scored a 23-yard garbage TD with 3 minutes left. Down by 16, they went for the 2pt conversion, missed it.

(11-22-2017 11:23 AM)Potomac Wrote:  I picked Furman because Elon barely beat Furman back then. They had Malcolm Summers rushing his head off back then. Their offense has taken a noticeable drop off since then. They've dropped their final two games of the regular season and were dominated in both losses too. They have one of the statistically worst offenses of the entire playoff field and that's WITH Malcolm Summers rushing stats factored into their numbers. Their defense was nothing noteworthy and that won't get you far in the playoffs against far better teams. Additionally Furman has shown much improvement since their early season Elon game

I saw on AGS that Elon didn't play Summers much against Furman. He became a factor after that game. I think he had something like 5 yards rushing on 2 carries in the game. I'm not sure that changes your mind, but it's a factor to consider.

(11-22-2017 11:24 AM)olddawg Wrote:  Wonder if the elevation difference between Western Illinois and Weber State will factor in at all? Going from playing at 797 ft to 4780 ft.

It will and I saw someone note that in their WIU/WSU analysis. Those WIU players aren't used to that thinner air and will get tired faster. It could make a difference if their defense is on the field a lot.

(11-22-2017 11:29 AM)JMU_71 Wrote:  

(11-22-2017 11:23 AM)Potomac Wrote:  I picked Furman because Elon barely beat Furman back then. They had Malcolm Summers rushing his head off back then. Their offense has taken a noticeable drop off since then. They've dropped their final two games of the regular season and were dominated in both losses too. They have one of the statistically worst offenses of the entire playoff field and that's WITH Malcolm Summers rushing stats factored into their numbers. Their defense was nothing noteworthy and that won't get you far in the playoffs against far better teams. Additionally Furman has shown much improvement since their early season Elon game

I saw on AGS that Elon didn't play Summers much against Furman. He became a factor after that game. I think he had something like 5 yards rushing on 2 carries in the game. I'm not sure that changes your mind, but it's a factor to consider.

Thanks for the note. It doesn't change my mind though. Elon's offense doesn't have enough punch. I want them to win, but I don't realistically see it happening.

(11-22-2017 11:26 AM)JMUrcc06 Wrote:  

(11-22-2017 11:11 AM)JMURocks Wrote:  Surprised by the number of people picking Furman over Elon, Elon already beat Furman earlier this year AT Furman, and will be hosting. What’s changed to give Furman the edge now?

I think Elon could surprise people and win at least a couple games. Only losses were to us, FBS Toledo, and a relatively close one at UNH.

not trying to BDK you... but... I don't know that I'd consider the UNH game a relatively close one... they were shut out for 56 minutes and 44 seconds!

They scored a 23-yard garbage TD with 3 minutes left. Down by 16, they went for the 2pt conversion, missed it.

What I meant is it wasn’t a large blowout ala JMU, and UNH was fighting at home for a playoff spot. Wasn’t saying they had a chance to win it, but it was competitive.

Elon also got the benefit of a lot of turnovers I early in the season if correctly recall.

First Round
Lehigh at Stony Brook Pick: JMU
Western Illinois at Weber St Pick: JMU
Monmouth at Northern Iowa Pick: JMU
CC State at New Hampshire Pick: JMU
Samford at Kennesaw St Pick: JMU
South Dakota at Nicholls St Pick: JMU
Furman at Elon Pick: JMU
San Diego at Northern Arizona Pick: JMU

Second Round
Stony Brook at JMU Pick: JMU
Western Illinois at Southern Utah Pick: JMU
Northern Iowa at South Dakota St Pick: JMU
New Hampshire at Central Arkansas Pick: JMU
Kennesaw St. at Jacksonville St Pick: JMU
South Dakota at Sam Houston St Pick: JMU
Elon at Wofford Pick: JMU
Northern Arizona at North Dakota ST Pick: JMU

Quarterfinals
Southern Utah at JMU Pick: JMU
South Dakota St at Central Arkansas Pick: JMU
Sam Houston St at Jacksonville St Pick: JMU
Wofford at North Dakota St Pick: JMU

Semi-Finals
South Dakota St at JMU Pick: JMU
Sam Houston St at North Dakota St Pick: JMU

Championship
JMU - North Dakota State Pick: JMU

I understand the love that SDSU is receiving, but does everyone really think they're a lock to win their first game? Their likely first opponent (IMO, UNI) beat the Jacks by 3 TDs earlier this season @ SDSU.

First Round
Lehigh at Stony Brook Pick: Stony Brook
Western Illinois at Weber St Pick: Weber State
Monmouth at Northern Iowa Pick: UNI
CC State at New Hampshire Pick: UNH
Samford at Kennesaw St Pick: KSU
South Dakota at Nicholls St Pick: USD
Furman at Elon Pick: Furman
San Diego at Northern Arizona Pick: UNA

Second Round
Stony Brook at JMU Pick: JMU
Weber State at Southern Utah Pick: SUU
Northern Iowa at South Dakota St Pick: UNI
New Hampshire at Central Arkansas Pick: UCA
Kennesaw St. at Jacksonville St Pick: JSU
South Dakota at Sam Houston St Pick: Softies
Furman at Wofford Pick: Wofford
Northern Arizona at North Dakota ST Pick: NDSU

Quarterfinals
Southern Utah at JMU Pick: JMU
Northern Iowa at Central Arkansas Pick: UNI
Sam Houston St at Jacksonville St Pick: JSU
Wofford at North Dakota St Pick: NDSU

Semi-Finals
Northern Iowa at JMU Pick: JMU
Jacksonville State at North Dakota St Pick: NDSU

Championship
JMU - North Dakota State Pick: JMU

(11-22-2017 12:19 PM)Lyric Wrote:  I understand the love that SDSU is receiving, but does everyone really think they're a lock to win their first game? Their likely first opponent (IMO, UNI) beat the Jacks by 3 TDs earlier this season @ SDSU.

Not me. See my picks. I got the Panthers coming to Harrisonburg, not the Jackrabbits.

(11-22-2017 12:19 PM)Lyric Wrote:  I understand the love that SDSU is receiving, but does everyone really think they're a lock to win their first game? Their likely first opponent (IMO, UNI) beat the Jacks by 3 TDs earlier this season @ SDSU.

This will be a good game to watch. I think SDSU is the better team overall talent wise, and they are “favored” by the computer ratings, playing at home. But UNI could beat them again, and that would blow up my bracket a bit.

There were at least 3 or 4 games I had as a coin flip when making the bracket, and this one probably qualifies too.

(11-22-2017 12:19 PM)Lyric Wrote:  I understand the love that SDSU is receiving, but does everyone really think they're a lock to win their first game? Their likely first opponent (IMO, UNI) beat the Jacks by 3 TDs earlier this season @ SDSU.

A good point. Apparently SDSU played a bad game and turned the ball over throughout.

Looking at the box score. UNI outgained them by 55 yards but was also +2 TOs on the day. Leading UNI rusher had 170 yds and a TD but SDSU QB passed for 280 yds and 2 TDs. SDSU rushing game was shut down by UNI.

The story though is UNI dominating the TOP battle with more than 40 minutes. UNI started the game up 17-0 until 11:54 in the 2nd. On two of their 3 scoring drives (SDSU), they had huge passing plays and a massive kickoff return contribute to those drives. They depended on huge plays.

(11-22-2017 07:06 AM)hburg Wrote:  First Round
Lehigh at Stony Brook
Western Illinois at Weber St I think Weber takes this one.
Monmouth at Northern Iowa
CC State at New Hampshire
Samford at Kennesaw St
South Dakota at Nicholls St Not buying SD any more, they have lost the last three.
Furman at Elon
San Diego at Northern Arizona

Chose all the home teams....

Second Round
Stony Brook at JMU
Wesber St at Southern Utah
Northern Iowa at South Dakota St
New Hampshire at Central Arkansas
Samford at Jacksonville St
Nicholls St at Sam Houston St
Elon at Wofford
Northern Arizona at North Dakota ST

Quarterfinals
SUU at JMU
South Dakota St at Central Arkansas
Sam Houston St at Jacksonville St
Wofford at North Dakota St

Semi-Finals
SDSU at JMU
Jacksonville St at North Dakota St

Championship
JMU - Jacksonville State


Would be interesting if this actually played out.

Was 5-3 in the first round. So close with the Elon and Nicholls state game. Oh well :)

New picks for those 3 games -

South Dakota at Sam Houston St
Furman at Wofford
San Diego at North Dakota ST

San Diego shocked a lot of people today, and they are heading to Fargo next weekend. Solid team. Bufflers are going to have their hands full next Saturday.

Wasn't able to watch any games being overseas and their being a regional block. Did San Diego really look that good? Did they look like a team that could beat NDSU? Would be interesting.

(11-22-2017 11:56 AM)DirtyDukes Wrote:  First Round
Lehigh at Stony Brook Pick: JMU
Western Illinois at Weber St Pick: JMU
Monmouth at Northern Iowa Pick: JMU
CC State at New Hampshire Pick: JMU
Samford at Kennesaw St Pick: JMU
South Dakota at Nicholls St Pick: JMU
Furman at Elon Pick: JMU
San Diego at Northern Arizona Pick: JMU

Second Round
Stony Brook at JMU Pick: JMU
Western Illinois at Southern Utah Pick: JMU
Northern Iowa at South Dakota St Pick: JMU
New Hampshire at Central Arkansas Pick: JMU
Kennesaw St. at Jacksonville St Pick: JMU
South Dakota at Sam Houston St Pick: JMU
Elon at Wofford Pick: JMU
Northern Arizona at North Dakota ST Pick: JMU

Quarterfinals
Southern Utah at JMU Pick: JMU
South Dakota St at Central Arkansas Pick: JMU
Sam Houston St at Jacksonville St Pick: JMU
Wofford at North Dakota St Pick: JMU

Semi-Finals
South Dakota St at JMU Pick: JMU
Sam Houston St at North Dakota St Pick: JMU

Championship
JMU - North Dakota State Pick: JMU

Lol.

Wish I knew how to stick emojis in here via my phone, but sadly I don’t. So “lmfao”...

I’m just not sure if you’re the best person ever, or simply the worst.

One of life’s many conundrums...