Teams with 1st Loss Week 12:
None

Teams with 2nd Loss Week 12:
None

Teams with 1st Win week 12:
Georgia Southern

Percent of Undefeated Teams with 1st Loss
Week 0/1: 36.15% (47/130)
Week 2: 37.35% (31/83)
Week 3: 28.85% (15/52)
Week 4: 35.13% (13/37)
Week 5: 29.17% (7/24)
Week 6: 23.53% (4/17)
Week 7: 38.46% (5/13)
Week 8: 0% (0/8)
Week 9: 37.5% (3/8)
Week 10: 0% (0/5)
Week 11: 20% (1/5)
Week 12: 0% (0/4)

Maximum possible Undefeated Teams at End of the Regular Season:
4: Possible undefeated teams: Alabama, Wisconsin, Miami (FL), and Central Florida

Week 12 Thoughts:
-Our only change for the week on these lists came from the winless column and it was very much a surprise. After starting the year 0-9, Georgia Southern hosted 4-6 South Alabama this week as a 6-point underdog. They won 52-0 removing their name from the list of winless teams in a very impressive first win. That leaves us with just UTEP in the winless column.

-All our undefeated and 1-loss teams won this week, most in rather lopsided match-ups. The toughest was Wisconsin hosting Michigan which allowed them to add a signature win.

-Going into the modern rivalry week (traditional rivalry week would have been this last week, but that’s mostly abandoned now), it appears all the undefeated and 1-loss teams from power 5 conferences control their Rose/Sugar destiny. The only 2-loss team who can probably say the same thing is Auburn. TCU, Ohio State, and USC stand a chance if they win out, but they need help. USC would probably need the most.

-On the Group of 5 side, we are down to 4 teams who appear to have any shot what-so-ever. Those are undefeated Central Florida, 1-loss South Florida, 1-loss Memphis, and 2-loss Boise State. Boise State has the most tenuous position of the group. They are currently only above South Florida and would stand a very high chance of being jumped by South Florida if the Bulls win the next 2. I think the only scenarios where Boise State stands a decent chance left involve Memphis losing this week to East Carolina (and then either winning the American or maybe devaluing a South Florida win just enough). It does not hurt the Broncos if Washington State does well in the next 2 weeks either.

Week 13 Thoughts:
Our undefeated teams play in the following games: undefeated Miami (FL) at Pitt (Friday), 1-loss South Florida at undefeated Central Florida (Friday), undefeated Alabama plays at 2-loss, Auburn, and undefeated Wisconsin plays at Minnesota.

Our other 1-loss teams play in the following: 1-loss Georgia plays at Georgia Tech, East Carolina plays at 1-loss Memphis, 1-loss Oklahoma hosts West Virginia, and 1-loss Clemson plays at South Carolina

Notable 2-loss teams: Baylor plays at 2-loss TCU (Friday), 2-loss Ohio State plays at Michigan, and 2-loss Boise State plays at Fresno State
Winless UTEP closes out the season on the road vs. UAB. They are 20-point underdogs with their final chance at a win.

-Various thoughts on the above:
1. Lots of road games above vs. rivals for the top teams.
2. The UCF/USF game and the Alabama/Auburn ones directly decide who goes to the their respective conference championship games.
3. Alabama will be very likely to make Rose/Sugar Bowl even with a loss this week, so any team hoping to sneak in, needs to root hard for the Tide in this game and then vs. Georgia.
4. Along those same lines, it would help playoff bowl competitors if Miami lost on Friday. That would likely limit the ACC to one spot, while 2 is possible right now.

Remaining Undefeated Teams: ACC: 1, American: 1, Big Ten: 1, SEC: 1, total: 4
Miami (FL)
Wisconsin
Central Florida
Alabama

One-Loss Teams: ACC: 1, American: 2, Big 12: 1, Big Ten: 0, SEC: 1, total: 5
Memphis
Oklahoma
Clemson
South Florida
Georgia

Remaining Winless Teams: Conference USA: 1, Sun Belt: 0, total: 1
UTEP

The problem for Boise is they didn't beat Washington St. Sure it's great they scheduled them, but the fact is they LOST to them.

Agreed, but their hope has to be that the loss will look as strong as possible. It won't matter in most senarios, but if they get very lucky, small chance it could matter.

Boise's ONLY chance is for Memphis to lose to ECU. Really, that's it. If that doesn't happen, it's pretty much impossible to see any scenario where Boise would get in over UCF/USF/Memphis.

I agree both senarios I see with any chance (not a guarentee but a chance) start with Memphis loosing to ECU. If Memphis then were to beat South Florida for the title, that is the only senario where I think Boise State would have over a 50 percent chance. The other senario is ECU and South Florida winning this week (without South Florida looking great) and then having South Florida win an ugly game with Memphis. Even then, I would lean to South Florida getting the nod but could see Boise State if they look impressive.

(11-20-2017 11:13 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Boise's ONLY chance is for Memphis to lose to ECU. Really, that's it. If that doesn't happen, it's pretty much impossible to see any scenario where Boise would get in over UCF/USF/Memphis.

Exactly. ESPN has the chances of ECU winning that game at about 3%.

The CFP's nightmare scenario.

Auburn and South Carolina win their rivalry games this week. In the CCG's, Auburn beats Georgia, Clemson beats Miami and Ohio State beats Wisconsin. None of those things would be a big surprise.

The result: every P5 champion has 2 losses.

UCF beats one loss USF, then one loss Memphis, and goes to the Orange Bowl where they beat one loss Miami to finish undefeated. The Coaches Poll voters are contractually bound to declare the CFP winner - no matter who that may be - as National Champion (though they will not use those words).

But AP voters are not so bound.

Wouldn't that be fun?

(11-20-2017 02:36 PM)ken d Wrote:  The CFP's nightmare scenario.

Auburn and South Carolina win their rivalry games this week. In the CCG's, Auburn beats Georgia, Clemson beats Miami and Ohio State beats Wisconsin. None of those things would be a big surprise.

The result: [b]every P5 champion has 2 losses.[/b]

Should this happen, the CFP would probably be Oklahoma, Auburn (both loses are already in the past and they are currently #6), Ohio St (both losses are already in the past and they are currently #9), and Alabama (1 loss).

Clemson, 2 losses to Syracuse and South Carolina, would be out regardless of winning the ACC. Miami, with 1 loss and no conference title, would have to be better than Alabama in the committee's mind which I would doubt. Wisconsin is already on the outside looking in while undefeated. Notre Dame would be my #5. USC would creep up as the PAC champ but not into the CFP.

Sugar Bowl: #1 Oklahoma vs. #4 Alabama
Rose Bowl: #2 Auburn vs. #3 Ohio St

Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. Wisconsin
Cotton Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Penn St
Peach Bowl: Miami vs. Central Florida

(11-20-2017 03:46 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(11-20-2017 02:36 PM)ken d Wrote:  The CFP's nightmare scenario.

Auburn and South Carolina win their rivalry games this week. In the CCG's, Auburn beats Georgia, Clemson beats Miami and Ohio State beats Wisconsin. None of those things would be a big surprise.

The result: [b]every P5 champion has 2 losses.[/b]

Should this happen, the CFP would probably be Oklahoma, Auburn (both loses are already in the past and they are currently #6), Ohio St (both losses are already in the past and they are currently #9), and Alabama (1 loss).

Clemson, 2 losses to Syracuse and South Carolina, would be out regardless of winning the ACC. Miami, with 1 loss and no conference title, would have to be better than Alabama in the committee's mind which I would doubt. Wisconsin is already on the outside looking in while undefeated. Notre Dame would be my #5. USC would creep up as the PAC champ but not into the CFP.

Sugar Bowl: #1 Oklahoma vs. #4 Alabama
Rose Bowl: #2 Auburn vs. #3 Ohio St

Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. Wisconsin
Cotton Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Penn St
Peach Bowl: TCU vs. Central Florida

So you would have a one loss Miami team (loser only to Clemson in the ACC CG) out of the NY6 entirely? Even ahead of a 3 loss TCU?

(11-20-2017 04:13 PM)ken d Wrote:  

(11-20-2017 03:46 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(11-20-2017 02:36 PM)ken d Wrote:  The CFP's nightmare scenario.

Auburn and South Carolina win their rivalry games this week. In the CCG's, Auburn beats Georgia, Clemson beats Miami and Ohio State beats Wisconsin. None of those things would be a big surprise.

The result: [b]every P5 champion has 2 losses.[/b]

Should this happen, the CFP would probably be Oklahoma, Auburn (both loses are already in the past and they are currently #6), Ohio St (both losses are already in the past and they are currently #9), and Alabama (1 loss).

Clemson, 2 losses to Syracuse and South Carolina, would be out regardless of winning the ACC. Miami, with 1 loss and no conference title, would have to be better than Alabama in the committee's mind which I would doubt. Wisconsin is already on the outside looking in while undefeated. Notre Dame would be my #5. USC would creep up as the PAC champ but not into the CFP.

Sugar Bowl: #1 Oklahoma vs. #4 Alabama
Rose Bowl: #2 Auburn vs. #3 Ohio St

Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. Wisconsin
Cotton Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Penn St
Peach Bowl: TCU vs. Central Florida

So you would have a one loss Miami team (loser only to Clemson in the ACC CG) out of the NY6 entirely? Even ahead of a 3 loss TCU?

Missed that! Thanks! Corrected in original post.

(11-20-2017 03:46 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  

(11-20-2017 02:36 PM)ken d Wrote:  The CFP's nightmare scenario.

Auburn and South Carolina win their rivalry games this week. In the CCG's, Auburn beats Georgia, Clemson beats Miami and Ohio State beats Wisconsin. None of those things would be a big surprise.

The result: [b]every P5 champion has 2 losses.[/b]

Should this happen, the CFP would probably be Oklahoma, Auburn (both loses are already in the past and they are currently #6), Ohio St (both losses are already in the past and they are currently #9), and Alabama (1 loss).

Clemson, 2 losses to Syracuse and South Carolina, would be out regardless of winning the ACC. Miami, with 1 loss and no conference title, would have to be better than Alabama in the committee's mind which I would doubt. Wisconsin is already on the outside looking in while undefeated. Notre Dame would be my #5. USC would creep up as the PAC champ but not into the CFP.

Sugar Bowl: #1 Oklahoma vs. #4 Alabama
Rose Bowl: #2 Auburn vs. #3 Ohio St

Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Georgia
Fiesta Bowl: USC vs. Wisconsin
Cotton Bowl: Notre Dame vs. Penn St
Peach Bowl: Miami vs. Central Florida

Count me as rooting for this. I really wanted the Rose Bowl this year.