(11-18-2017 09:36 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Perfect way to make the regular season irrelevant sans the last couple of weeks of the year.

I don't know if it ever dawned on you that the regular season is a playoff.

(11-18-2017 06:39 PM)johnbragg Wrote:  Just because I like to do these thought experiments. Mainly I want to explore--would expanding the playoff dilute the regular season?

The usual argument there is that with 8 teams, you'd have teams basically guaranteed a spot, which would devalue the CCGs and maybe even some late season games--the situation college basketball has, where Coach Calipari says of the SEC Tourament "We don't hang 3-letter banners"

So assume automatic bids for the P5 conferences, plus an automatic bid for the top G5 champion. Also assume that the current top ranked team wins their conference.

Using the CFP rankings from Tuesday:
1. Alabama (SEC)
2. Clemson (ACC)
3. Miami (at-large)
4. Oklahoma (XII)
5. Wisconsin (B1G)
6. Auburn (at-large)
7. USC (PAC) (CFP #11)
8. UCF (G-5) (CFP #15)
Plus UGA, Notre DAme, Ohio STate, Penn STate in the top ten.

The interesting stuff is who gets the two at-large bids. Going from bottom to top:

I don't think anyone currently outside the top ten is going to be able to make a case. Penn State can't really do anything to move up. If Ohio State wins the Big Ten, they're in, otherwise a third loss eliminates them.

Georgia winning the SEC Championship puts them in. Losing another game to Auburn, or losing to Alabama puts them "on the bubble".

Looking at who's in right now, from bottom to top.
If UCF doesnt' win the AAC title game, then they're out. USC with 3 losses isn't getting an at-large.

Auburn is "in the mix" no matter what in an 8-team playoff. If Auburn loses to Alabama, and Alabama beats Georgia, then Auburn has an argument over Georgia for one of the spots. If Georgia beats Alabama for the SEC title, than Auburn has the argument that they beat Georgia. If Auburn beats Alabama, and then loses to Georgia, they're in competition with Alabama and the ACC title game loser for two spots. (There may be another contender in the mix, I don't know yet).

Wisconsin. If Wisconsin loses to Ohio State, they're 12-1 with wins over Iowa, Northwestern (#23) and Michigan (#24). They'd be going up against the losers of the ACC and SEC title games, plus the Alabama-Auburn loser.

Oklahoma. If they lose the Big 12 title game, they're 2-1 against TCU and Oklahoma State, plus a win over Ohio State and a loss to Iowa State. If Ohio State upends Wisconsin and TCU upsets Oklahoma, Oklahoma's "in the mix"--they'd have wins over 2 of the 8 playoff teams. If Ohio State loses, Oklahoma is probably not getting an at-large over the ACC runner-up, the Iron Bowl loser or the SEC runner-up.

Miami-Clemson is a game where the loser probably makes the 8-team field. Miami would be 12-1 with a win over Notre Dame, Clemson would be 11-2 with a win over Auburn. That stacks up pretty well against an Oklahoma or Wisconsin after a CCG upset, or against Auburn or Georgia after an Alabama loss, or against Notre Dame or Penn State.

Finally, Alabama would be pretty much locked in. If they lose to Auburn, then they're 11-1 with 2 top 25 wins and no bad losses. If they lose to Georgia in the CCG, they're 12-1 with 3 top 25 wins and no bad losses.

So the possibilities would be, from bottom to top:
2 SEC teams out of Alabama, Georgia and Auburn
Loser of Miami-Clemson
Oklahoma if they lose
Wisconsin if they lose

So nobody can really afford to slack off in their CCG, because it's still a "beauty contest" for the two at-large spots.

It makes to much sense.

(11-19-2017 08:35 AM)bearcatlawjd2 Wrote:  The 8 team setup will eventually be here. I think real question is where do you play the first round. On campus sites or neutral sites, I have gone back and forth on both options. On campus sites give the home team a large advantage and also locks in the G5 champion for a impossible to win road game but it does protect the top four. Neutral sites have the issue of getting to fans the games and bringing in more outside interest into the system.

The conference championship games are not on campus. I say have a game in each region like college basketball. West, East, South, Midwest.

(12-01-2017 09:59 AM)FloridaJag Wrote:  It makes to much sense.

Well, I kind of understand where The Powers That Be are coming from. Spectator sports in general, and college athletics in particular, aren't exactly rational. Fans care a lot about something that, objectively, doesn't matter that much. They were making a ton of money the way things were pre-BCS and under the BCS. The bowls made money for TPTB. So you don't want to fiddle too much with the magic money machine in case you break it.

And college athletics TPTP worry that the college football season will end up like the college basketball season--mostly stuff you can ignore until towards the end. The SEC and CBS do NOT want the SEC CCG to become like the SEC basketball tournament, where John Calipari said "We don't hang three-letter banners"

You say "it would make too much sense"--when it's about something that, fundamentally, doesn't make sense. Really, whether our teams win or lose shouldn't effect our lives any more than whether our wives' favorite celebrities get married or divorced. So I can understand TPTP's reluctance to mess with success.

I was trying to approach this thread from the perspective of TPTB, being careful not to do anything to make the golden goose sick. And frankly, Alabama having a locked-in playoff birth is like the golden goose starting to cough.

So, an 8 team playoff bracket today would look like:

#8 Ohio State @ #1 Clemson
#5 Alabama @ 4 Wisconsin

#7 Miami @ #2 Auburn
#6 Georgia @ #3 Oklahoma

I expect ESPN would be pretty happy with that lineup.

(12-01-2017 01:08 PM)ken d Wrote:  So, an 8 team playoff bracket today would look like:

#8 Ohio State @ #1 Clemson
#5 Alabama @ 4 Wisconsin

#7 Miami @ #2 Auburn
#6 Georgia @ #3 Oklahoma

I expect ESPN would be pretty happy with that lineup.

You mean FOX, right Ken D?

I think that they'd need to give the G5 an auto-bid if they are giving the P5 auto-bids. But UCF at Clemson (especially with the Cinderella angle every year) would be a great match-up too.

(12-01-2017 01:12 PM)micahandme Wrote:  

(12-01-2017 01:08 PM)ken d Wrote:  So, an 8 team playoff bracket today would look like:

#8 Ohio State @ #1 Clemson
#5 Alabama @ 4 Wisconsin

#7 Miami @ #2 Auburn
#6 Georgia @ #3 Oklahoma

I expect ESPN would be pretty happy with that lineup.

You mean FOX, right Ken D?

I think that they'd need to give the G5 an auto-bid if they are giving the P5 auto-bids. But UCF at Clemson (especially with the Cinderella angle every year) would be a great match-up too.

not sure why you would say Fox. ESPN has it for the next 8 years after this year.

(12-01-2017 01:08 PM)ken d Wrote:  So, an 8 team playoff bracket today would look like:

#8 Ohio State @ #1 Clemson
#5 Alabama @ 4 Wisconsin

#7 Miami @ #2 Auburn
#6 Georgia @ #3 Oklahoma

I expect ESPN would be pretty happy with that lineup.

Well, if we're going by today's standings, I'm going by my assumptions of
--autobids for P5, one G5
--current bowls hosting. Let's say that the two semifinals double-host (they play an exhibition game on New Years' Day/Eve, then a playoff game a week or so later) and the other CFP games are the quarterfinals, and the NCG is put out for bid.
--Matchups are seeded, so being #1 matters (in general, and this year, to Alabama)

So
Orange Bowl #1 Clemson vs UCF (G5 autobid)
Peach Bowl #2 Auburn vs USC (PAC autobid)
Cotton Bowl #3 Oklahoma vs #6 Georgia
Fiesta Bowl #4 Wisconsin vs #5 Alabama

And in the other games.
Rose Bowl #8 Ohio State vs #12 Stanford
Sugar Bowl #11 TCU vs #17 LSU