Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/19/17
From an Overall Perspective…
Whew! Going into this last weekend, it looked like most teams were doomed if they finished with less than 8 wins. However, eight teams who had a chance to reach that threshold lost – meaning that even if we took EVERY team that has 8 wins, we would still be short. So 7 wins is now the minimum and while I had it last week that the At-Large bids would be concentrated in only a few strong conferences, I now have it much more spread out. The Committee has some very tough choices to make.
From a JMU Perspective...
Thankfully, there was not nearly as much suspense this week against Elon as there was last week against Richmond. The Fightin’ Christians proved to be no match for the Dukes with JMU winning 31-3 in a game that was never really in doubt.
JMU has now won 23 games in a row, back-to-back outright championships, and allowed only 99 points for the whole season – the best in all of D1. There will be riots if we don’t get the #1 Seed, so the only real question will be to see what the bracket looks going forward.
By the Numbers (106 total teams)...
Teams Alive for any Playoff spot:
10/22 – 91
10/29 – 76
11/5 – 62
11/12 – 49
11/19 – 42
Teams Alive for an At-Large spot:
10/22 – 74
10/29 – 66
11/5 – 59
11/12 – 44
11/19 – 32
Teams that have reached 6 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/22 – 11
10/29 – 20
11/5 – 31
11/12 – 35
11/19 – 32
Here's the overall playoff eligibility list. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can't reach 6 wins. Teams that are in RED cannot reach 6 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 6 wins, I will list them in GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in BLUE.
Clinched Conference Titles
Big Sky – Southern Utah
Big South – Kennesaw State
CAA – JMU
MVC – NDSU
NEC – Cent. Conn. State
OVC – Jacksonville State
Patriot – Lehigh
Pioneer – San Diego
SoCon – Wofford
Southland – Central Ark.
CAA (6 Teams Alive)
JMU – 11 wins – clinched AQ
Stony Brook – 9 wins
Elon – 8 wins
UNH – 7 wins
Delaware – 7 wins
Richmond – 6 wins
Big Sky (6 Teams Alive)
Southern Utah – 9 wins – clinched AQ
Weber State – 8 wins
Northern Arizona – 7 wins
Montana – 7 wins
EWU – 7 wins
Sacramento State – 7 wins
Big South (2 Teams Alive)
Kennesaw State – 9 wins – clinched AQ
Monmouth – 9 wins
MEAC (3 Teams Alive – No AQ)
NC A&T – 10 wins – clinched “bowl” game
Howard – 7 wins
Bethune-Cookman – 7 wins
NC Central – 6 wins
MVC (7 Teams Alive)
NDSU – 10 wins – clinched AQ
SDSU – 9 wins
W. Illinois – 8 wins
South Dakota – 7 wins
No. Iowa – 7 wins
Illinois State – 6 wins
Youngstown State – 6 wins
NEC (2 Teams Alive)
Cent. Conn. State – 7 wins – clinched AQ
Duquesne – 6 wins
OVC (3 Teams Alive)
Jacksonville State – 9 wins – clinched AQ
Austin Peay – 8 wins
E. Illinois – 6 wins
Patriot League (2 Teams Alive)
Lehigh – 5 wins – clinched AQ
Colgate – 7 wins
Pioneer League (2 Teams Alive)
San Diego – 8 wins – clinched AQ
Drake – 6 wins
SoCon (4 Teams Alive)
Wofford – 9 wins – clinched AQ
Western Carolina – 7 wins
Furman – 7 wins
Samford – 7 wins
Southland (5 Teams Alive)
Central Ark. – 10 wins – clinched AQ
Sam Houston State – 10 wins
Nicholls State – 8 wins
McNeese State – 8 wins
SE Louisiana – 6 wins
Finished with 10 wins (without winning AQ):
Sam Houston State
Finished with 9 wins (without winning AQ):
Stony Brook
Monmouth
SDSU
Finished with 8 wins (without winning AQ):
Elon
Weber State
W. Illinois
Austin Peay
Nicholls State
McNeese State
Finished with 7 wins (without winning AQ):
UNH
Delaware
Northern Arizona
Montana
EWU
Sacramento State
Howard
Bethune-Cookman
South Dakota
No. Iowa
Colgate
Western Carolina
Furman
Samford
Finished with 6 wins (without winning AQ):
Richmond
NC Central
Illinois State
Youngstown State
Duquesne
E. Illinois
Drake
SE Louisiana
Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs (Teams in RED were eliminated this week)
Savannah State (too dumb for postseason)
Liberty (transitioning to I-A)
URI
W&M
Albany
Towson
Villanova
Maine
Idaho State
Northern Colorado
North Dakota
Portland State
Cal Poly
Montana State
UC Davis
Presbyterian
Gardner-Webb
Charleston Southern
SC State
Delaware State
Florida A&M
Morgan State
Norfolk State
Hampton
Missouri State
Indiana State
So. Illinois
Wagner
Robert Morris
Sacred Heart
Bryant
StFU
Tenn. Tech
Murray State
EKU
SE Missouri State
Tenn.-Martin
Tenn. State
Fordham
Georgetown
Holy Cross
Lafayette
Bucknell
Morehead State
Stetson
Davidson
Valparaiso
Marist
Butler
Campbell
Jacksonville
Dayton
Chatty
VMI
ETSU
Citadel
Mercer
Lamar
Houston Baptist
Abilene Christian
Incarnate Word
NW State
Stephen F. Austin
Perfection (no losses of any type)
JMU
NC A&T
The Bottom (an 0-fer season)
Portland State
Indiana State
VMI
Conference Analysis
CAA – Even with JMU easily winning the AQ, that does not mean there wasn’t drama for the CAA in the final week. Stony Brook took their only lead of their game against Maine when they threw a 35-yard Hail Mary as time expired. That 20-19 win gave them sole possession of second place and very likely one of the lower Seeds. Of course, Elon lost to JMU, but they finish in third place and will certainly get an At-Large. What happens with the next two teams, though, is anyone’s guess. If either of them had won their final game, they would be in – but they both lost. Delaware lost by three touchdowns to a depleted Villanova team and UNH lost by 15 points to a bad Albany team. I gave the last playoff spot to Delaware – losses to Towson and Villanova are bad, but UNH’s losses to Holy Cross and Albany are worse.
Big Sky – There was a tie at the top of the Big Sky standings, but since SUU and Weber played each other this year, it was very easy to figure out that SUU gets the AQ. Weber shouldn’t feel too bad – they’ll still get an At-Large bid. Then there are the four teams who finished with 7 wins: NAU, Montana, Sacramento State, and EWU. It’s pretty easy to give a spot to EWU – they have no bad losses and some good wins. I would then put Sacramento State in the 4th spot. They did lose to NAU, but that was a game in which they did not have their starting QB. That leaves NAU and Montana out.
Big South – Kennesaw State – a team that has only been in existence for 3 season – claimed the AQ by knocking off Monmouth. They will be playing in week #1 of the playoffs. As for Monmouth, while they do have 9 wins, none of them are impressive. If they had kept the Kennesaw game close, I might have given them one of the last playoff spots (because of what happened to other teams), but a 31-point loss won’t get it done.
MEAC – NC A&T officially received their bid for their “bowl” game, so they are out of the playoffs. No other team has a chance at a playoff spot.
MVC – I see the MVC easily getting a lot of teams into the playoffs. NDSU gets the AQ and likely the #2 Seed. SDSU and Western Illinois each have at least 8 wins, so they are in. So then do South Dakota and Northern Iowa – two 7-win teams – get in? I say yes. That gets the MVC five teams and leaves out Illinois State and Youngstown State.
NEC – Central Connecticut State already claimed the AQ. Duquesne wouldn't have gotten in even if they had won their final game – which they didn’t.
OVC – Jacksonville State got the AQ last week, so the focus turned to whether Austin Peay would get an At-Large. They got the win they needed and then they received a lot of help with all of the upsets this week, so I do have them in.
Patriot – Lehigh finished with a record of 5-6 – but all 5 of those wins were against conference opponenets – giving them the AQ. Colgate finished tied for first place, but they do not have strong enough record to warrant an At-Large bid.
Pioneer – San Diego had already won the AQ, so this week didn’t mean too much. No other Pioneer teams will get a playoff bid.
SoCon – Wofford got the AQ last week, so this week was to determine which of the 3 remaining top teams (Samford, Furman, and Western Carolina) would be left out of the playoffs. It’s very close, but I have Western Carolina out.
Southland – Central Arkansas won in the final week to give them the AQ. Sam Houston did pick up a win that will get them into the playoffs, but they should be worried by the fact that they gave up 33 points to Houston Baptist (three times their average). Nicholls and McNeese both finished tied for third place, but I do not have them in – their win totals are padded by their many terrible opponents.
My Playoff Picks:
With the 10 AQ spots decided, we need to figure out the 14 At-Large teams. Now while there are 31 teams technically alive, we can certainly eliminate some of them to narrow things down. First, we can get rid of the 6-win teams – there are just too many qualified teams at 7 wins and above for and 6-win teams to be considered. Then we can get rid of the teams from the weaker conferences (MEAC, NEC, Patriot, and Pioneer). That leaves us with the following 21 teams:
Sam Houston State
Stony Brook
Monmouth
SDSU
Elon
Weber State
W. Illinois
Austin Peay
Nicholls State
McNeese State
UNH
Delaware
Northern Arizona
Montana
EWU
Sacramento State
South Dakota
No. Iowa
Western Carolina
Furman
Samford
Ultimately, here are my picks for Seeds and First-Round match-ups (if I got to make the choices):
Seeds
Seed #1 – JMU
Seed #2 – NDSU
Seed #3 – Jacksonville State
Seed #4 – SDSU
Seed #5 – Wofford
Seed #6 – Central Arkansas
Seed #7 – Stony Brook
Seed #8 – SUU
Round 1
San Diego
Sacramento State
Sam Houston State
Austin Peay
Elon
Samford
Furman
Kennesaw
Weber State
No. Iowa
Delaware
Lehigh
Central Connecticut State
W. Illinois
EWU
South Dakota
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Overall I-AA Playoff Status - 11/19/17
