From an Overall Perspective…

Coming into this weekend, no conference titles had been clinched – an uncommon, but not unprecedented, situation. That has now changed with four conference AQ being decided from this past weekend’s games. It also now very clear that a team is going to need 7 wins in order to receive an At-Large bid – a solid field can be created from the teams who are currently at that mark and we still have another week to go. This means that while we do have 50 teams still alive, those teams who are at only 5 wins right now are finished unless they can win their conference’s AQ.


From a JMU Perspective...

Many people (including me) felt that JMU was going to have their hands full with the Ticks this weekend, and we were right. Any time you play a rival, you can ignore the overall records and you should be prepared for a good game. Add to that, Richmond absolutely needed a win to stay alive for the playoffs. Fortunately, JMU pulled it out, but they’re not done yet.

We knew going in that JMU could not clinch the AQ this week – that it would really come down to the final game versus Elon. It does make it interesting, though, knowing that Elon lost to UNH, because now we do have the opportunity for a three-way tie for the title. Here are the scenarios:

1.) JMU wins – JMU get the AQ
2.) Elon wins; Stony Brook loses – Elon gets the AQ
3.) Elon wins; Stony Brook wins – JMU, Elon, and SB all finish with a 7-1 conference record. SB did not play JMU or Elon, so we can’t use head-to-head. Instead, we use common opponents, starting with the highest rank and working down. There are 4 teams all three of these contenders played (Richmond, W&M, URI, and UNH). The highest ranking of those will be UNH. Elon just lost to them while SB and JMU both won, so Elon is eliminated. JMU and SB both did play Delaware – with JMU winning and SB losing. Therefore JMU gets the AQ.

So, JMU gets the AQ with a win OR a Stony Brook win (at Maine – which could be tough). More importantly, JMU will get the #1 Seed with a win. (Even with a loss, they should get a high Seed, but it probably won’t be #1.)


By the Numbers (106 total teams)...

Teams Alive for any Playoff spot:
10/22 – 91
10/29 – 76
11/5 – 62
11/12 – 50

Teams Alive for an At-Large spot:
10/22 – 74
10/29 – 66
11/5 – 59
11/12 – 45

Teams that have reached 6 wins (without clinching a conference):
10/22 – 11
10/29 – 20
11/5 – 31
11/12 – 35


Here's the overall playoff eligibility list. The number in parenthesis after a team is how many more losses they can have before they can't reach 6 wins. Teams that are in RED cannot reach 6 wins and therefore must win their conference AQ. When a team reaches 6 wins, I will list them in GREEN. When a team clinches an AQ spot, I will list them in BLUE.

Clinched Conference Titles
Big Sky –
Big South –
CAA –
MVC –
NEC – Cent. Conn. State
OVC – Jacksonville State
Patriot –
Pioneer – San Diego
SoCon – Wofford
Southland –

CAA (6 Teams Alive)
JMU – 10 wins
Elon – 8 wins
Stony Brook – 8 wins – cannot win AQ
UNH – 7 wins – cannot win AQ
Delaware – 7 wins – cannot win AQ
Richmond (0) – cannot win AQ

Big Sky (7 Teams Alive)
Southern Utah – 8 wins
Northern Arizona – 7 wins
Weber State – 7 wins
Montana – 7 wins – cannot win AQ
EWU – 6 wins – cannot win AQ
Sacramento State – 6 wins – cannot win AQ
UC Davis (0) – cannot win AQ

Big South (2 Teams Alive)
Monmouth – 9 wins
Kennesaw State – 8 wins

MEAC (4 Teams Alive – No AQ)
NC A&T – 9 wins
Howard – 7 wins
NC Central – 6 wins
Bethune-Cookman – 6 wins

MVC (7 Teams Alive)
NDSU – 9 wins
SDSU – 8 wins
South Dakota – 7 wins – cannot win AQ
W. Illinois – 7 wins – cannot win AQ
Illinois State – 6 wins – cannot win AQ
No. Iowa – 6 wins
Youngstown State (0) – cannot win AQ

NEC (2 Teams Alive)
Cent. Conn. State – 6 wins – clinched AQ
Duquesne – 6 wins

OVC (4 Teams Alive)
Jacksonville State – 8 wins – clinched AQ
Austin Peay – 7 wins
E. Illinois – 6 wins
Tenn. State (0)

Patriot League (3 Teams Alive)
Colgate – 6 wins
Bucknell (0) – cannot win AQ
Lehigh

Pioneer League (5 Teams Alive)
San Diego – 7 wins – clinched AQ
Drake (0)
Jacksonville (0)
Dayton (0)

SoCon (5 Teams Alive)
Wofford – 9 wins – clinched AQ
Western Carolina – 7 wins
Furman – 7 wins
Samford – 6 wins
Mercer (0)

Southland (5 Teams Alive)
Central Ark. – 9 wins
Sam Houston State – 9 wins
Nichols State – 8 wins
McNeese State – 7 wins
SE Louisiana (0) – cannot win AQ


Must Win Out to reach 6 wins:
Richmond
UC Davis
Youngstown State
Tennessee State
Bucknell
Drake
Jacksonville
Dayton
Mercer
SE Louisiana

Completely Eliminated from the Playoffs (Teams in RED were eliminated this week)
Savannah State (too dumb for postseason)
Liberty (transitioning to I-A)
URI
W&M
Albany
Towson
Villanova
Maine
Idaho State
Northern Colorado
North Dakota
Portland State
Cal Poly
Montana State
Presbyterian
Gardner-Webb
Charleston Southern
SC State
Delaware State
Florida A&M
Morgan State
Norfolk State
Hampton
Missouri State
Indiana State
So. Illinois
Wagner
Robert Morris
Sacred Heart
Bryant
StFU
Tenn. Tech
Murray State
EKU
SE Missouri State
Tenn.-Martin
Fordham
Georgetown
Holy Cross
Lafayette
Morehead State
Stetson
Davidson
Valparaiso
Marist
Butler
Campbell
Chatty
VMI
ETSU
Citadel
Lamar
Houston Baptist
Abilene Christian
Incarnate Word
NW State
Stephen F. Austin

Going for Perfection (no losses of any type)
JMU
NC A&T

Race to the Bottom (an 0-fer season)
Portland State
Indiana State
VMI


Conference Analysis

CAA – While we don’t know the who gets the AQ yet, we do at least know who the playoff candidates are. JMU, Elon, Stony Brook, UNH, and Delaware all have at least 7 wins with another week to go. Delaware and UNH are the teams with “only” 7 wins, and they both can easily reach 8 wins next week as they play bad teams. (If either were to lose, their playoff chances could take major hits as they would be bad losses.) UNH’s win was especially important as it gave them a “signature” win (over Elon). Ultimately, if UNH and Delaware both win, I think the CAA will get all five of those teams into the playoffs. For Villanova and Maine, their losses have officially knocked them out of the At-Large race. Then there is Richmond. They had to beat JMU this past weekend and failed. It is possible that they could get to 6 wins with a win next weekend, but with five CAA teams locked ahead of them (in conference and overall), there is really no chance for them.

Big Sky – We have three teams (NAU, SUU, and Weber State) tied for first place. NAU and SUU play each other in the final week, so we know that we can only have a two-way tie at worst. If Weber loses, the AQ goes to the winner of the NAU-SUU game. If Weber and SUU both win, SUU gets the AQ (they beat Weber). If Weber and NAU both win, we look at common opponents in descending order – which really starts to get complicated. Weber’s loss was to SUU, while NAU’s loss was to Montana. If Montana loses, they will finish below SUU, so NAU would get the AQ. If Montana wins, they would finish tied with SUU, meaning NAU and Weber stay tied. I think we then go to Sagarin’s which currently has Weber over NAU. (So we can’t really know this one until all games are done.) Importantly, there are currently six teams with 6 wins or more. Anyone who does not get the AQ will be on the At-Large bubble. The Big Sky could get anywhere from 2-4 total teams in, so there will be a number of eligible teams left out. SUU should be in regardless, but the rest will be up in the air. However, I think it’s probably clear that 6 wins will not be enough to get an At-Large, so teams like EWU and Sacramento must get another win to even be considered.

Big South – The Big South seems to be very good at scheduling the #1 versus the #2 team in the last week of the season and this year is no different. Monmouth and Kennesaw (Mountain) State are both undefeated in the Big South and will play for the AQ next week. Obviously, the winner gets in – but can the loser claim an At-Large? For Monmouth, none of their wins are very good. They scheduled most of the Patriot League this year and beat them all...but this year the Patriot League is one of the worst conferences in I-AA. For Kennesaw, their best win is over 4-6 Montana State. I really can’t see either of them getting an At-Large, so their match-up means everything.

MEAC – A great thing for bubble teams happened this week – NC Central lost this weekend on a tipped Hail Mary. With that loss, NC Central has been eliminated from the MEAC title race – making it highly likely that NC A&T will go the HBCU “bowl” game and not be an At-Large bubble team. Now, if NC A&T loses to NC Central this coming week, the only team they will could be tied with is Howard. NC A&T did not play Howard this year, so they go right to Sagarin’s – which A&T has a commanding lead in. No other teams from the MEAC (aside from A&T) have a resume that warrants playoff consideration.

MVC – NDSU crushed South Dakota this weekend to put the Bison one win away from getting the AQ and a high Seed. We know NDSU is going to the playoffs, no matter what. The real question is: What teams from the MVC will be eligible but left out? I think the MVC will get five teams in, so that leaves four more spots. SDSU looks to be safe. If Youngstown wins their final game, they will reach 6 wins, but I can’t see any way that they would get an At-Large, so they are out. Assuming they beat 0-10 Indiana State in the final week, I think Northern Iowa will make it in – they have no bad losses, but some very good wins. The final two spots will be decided by the remaining three teams this coming week. Western Illinois has beaten Illinois State and NAU, but lost to NDSU, SDSU, and South Dakota. South Dakota has beaten Western Illinois, Youngstown, and I-A Bowling Green, but lost to NDSU, UNI, and Illinois State. Illinois State has beaten South Dakota and Youngstown, but lost to SDSU, Western Illinois, SDSU, NAU, and Southern Illinois. That loss against Southern Illinois is the important one, I think. That is really the only bad loss by any of those three contenders, so if the season were to end today, they would be out. However, if they were to beat NDSU in the final week…?

NEC – Central Connecticut State was able to pull out a 1-point win over Duquesne to take the AQ. Duquesne has now lost two games in a row to seal their fate – their season ends this coming Saturday.

OVC – Jacksonville State had their worst I-AA game this season, but they were still able to pull off a win – giving them the AQ. If they can beat Tennessee State in the final week, they will have a nice, high Seed. It’s going to be tough for the OVC to get an At-Large, but if they do, it will be either Austin Peay or EIU. Fortunately, those two teams play each other next weekend, so the winner will be able to pick up an ok win to help their resume. Still, there might not be enough room once the MVC and CAA take many of the At-Large spots. (The MEAC situation being solved is very helpful for the OVC.)

Patriot – Looking at the list, I originally had four teams left alive (Colgate, Lehigh, Lafayette, and Bucknell), but we can get rid of Bucknell – they cannot win the AQ and they can finish with 6 (unimpressive) wins at most. That left us with Colgate, Lehigh, and Lafayette. Lehigh plays Lafayette this coming weekend – if Lehigh wins, they get the AQ. If Lafayette wins and Colgate beats last-place Georgetown, Colgate gets the AQ. However, if Lafayette wins and Colgate loses, we will have 3-way tie. The first tie-breaker is overall record versus the other teams involved in the tie. All three teams would be 1-1 in that scenario – so that’s a wash. The 2nd tie-breaker is record against common opponent working down. They all beat 4th place Holy Cross, so that means nothing. Tied for 5th place are Bucknell and Fordham – who play each other in the final week. This becomes important because Lehigh beat Bucknell and lost to Fordham, Lafayette beat Fordham and lost to Bucknell, and Colgate beat both Bucknell and Fordham. So, if Bucknell wins, Lafayette is out. If Fordham wins, Lehigh is out. Importantly, the Patriot League is different in that they do NOT start over through the tie-breakers once a team is eliminated. Since the 6th place team will be the team Lehigh or Lafayette lost to (and Colgate beat), Colgate gets the AQ. (So since there is no way for Lafayette to get the AQ – they are officially eliminated.) Fortunately, if Lehigh does take the AQ, it will not come at the expense of a worthy bubble team. Colgate could have 7 wins, but they are not good wins – there is no way they will be considered for an At-Large.

Pioneer – San Diego destroyed last-place Davidson by a score of 63-7 to take the AQ. It will be interesting to see who San Diego gets paired up with. They did pick up a playoff win last year and they seem to be on a roll. (Of course, it certainly helps that they were playing other Pioneer teams.) But could they knock off another Big Sky team this year? It would be tough, but I wouldn’t rule it out. (Then they’ll get destroyed by a Seed, but that won’t matter.) No other team in the Pioneer can get more than 6 wins, so they will all be finished for the year after this coming Saturday.

SoCon – Wofford easily beat VMI, and they have the tie-breaker over Furman, so Wofford gets the AQ. The SoCon should get 1-2 At-Large bids, so some eligible teams will probably be disappointed next Sunday. Mercer can only finish with 6 wins at most, so forget about them. Western Carolina’s hopes took a huge hit when they lost to Mercer this past week, but if they can beat a bad I-A North Carolina, they could have a strong enough resume for a bid. That leaves us with Furman and Samford – who happen to play each other in the final week. Furman has no bad losses, but also no great wins. Samford does have a good win over Wofford, but they also have a bad loss to Chatty. Ultimately, they both really need this win. I think the winner will get an At-Large bid and the loser will be finished.

Southland – None of the Southland teams have any great out-of-conference wins (the best one is Sam Houston over Richmond), so it is up to the top teams to pad their record with really bad conference opponents. Central Arkansas will get the AQ with a win over Abilene Christian. If Central Arkansas loses, Sam Houston and Nicholls will be waiting. If Central Arkansas finishes in a 2-way tie with either Sam Houston or Nicholls, Central Arkansas will get the AQ through tie-breakers. If there is a 3-way tie, it looks like we will have to see where other teams finish in order to determine the AQ. Most likely, Central Arkansas and Sam Houston will both make the playoffs one way or another. Nicholls must find a way to get the AQ. Anyone else has no chance.

I hate to nitpick but just for accuracy, you have Elon listed near the top with 7 wins. They have 8.

Additionally, the MEAC has announced that NC A&T has clinched a berth into the celebration bowl, so the outcome of the NCAT/NCCU game this weekend is meaningless for purposes of the playoff at-large field. There will not be a MEAC team in the field.

Saxkow, you think Ill St. has a shot to knock off NDSU?

(11-14-2017 09:47 AM)Potomac Wrote:  I hate to nitpick but just for accuracy, you have Elon listed near the top with 7 wins. They have 8.

Additionally, the MEAC has announced that NC A&T has clinched a berth into the celebration bowl, so the outcome of the NCAT/NCCU game this weekend is meaningless for purposes of the playoff at-large field. There will not be a MEAC team in the field.

Thanks about Elon - I fixed that.

As for the MEAC thing - you're right - they announced that after I had typed up that part. (It was all theoretically anyway - it was clear there was no way NC A&T could be caught in the Sagarin's rankings.)

(11-14-2017 09:55 AM)Jay M. Youix Wrote:  Saxkow, you think Ill St. has a shot to knock off NDSU?

A chance? Yes. They just lost to SDSU in overtime and now are using a scrambling QB - which could affect NDSU's gameplanning. Plus, it's always dangerous when you have a team that is truly playing for their playoff lives going against a team that is already guaranteed a playoff spot.

(11-14-2017 07:09 PM)NH/JMU Saxkow Wrote:  

(11-14-2017 09:55 AM)Jay M. Youix Wrote:  Saxkow, you think Ill St. has a shot to knock off NDSU?

A chance? Yes. They just lost to SDSU in overtime and now are using a scrambling QB - which could affect NDSU's gameplanning. Plus, it's always dangerous when you have a team that is truly playing for their playoff lives going against a team that is already guaranteed a playoff spot.

that's what i'm hoping. obviously I want us to win it all, but #2 on my wish list would be for NDSU to simply play ONE road playoff game. one. they spew all this BS about having a better winning percentage on the road than at home, but that hasn't been in the playoffs. different animal.

NDSU should be the #2 seed and they will send SDSU to our side of the bracket probably as the #5. Prob get Sammy on our side too if they put UCA as the #3.

(11-15-2017 10:14 AM)South Main Wrote:  NDSU should be the #2 seed and they will send SDSU to our side of the bracket probably as the #5. Prob get Sammy on our side too if they put UCA as the #3.

UCA will be the 4 most likely IMO, with Jax St. taking the 3 behind NDSU.

SDSU will be 5, SHSU 6, Wofford 7, and SUU the 8.

This is all assuming those teams and JMU win this weekend.

I would absolutely love that bracket for us.

(11-15-2017 10:21 AM)jmu98 Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 10:14 AM)South Main Wrote:  NDSU should be the #2 seed and they will send SDSU to our side of the bracket probably as the #5. Prob get Sammy on our side too if they put UCA as the #3.

UCA will be the 4 most likely IMO, with Jax St. taking the 3 behind NDSU.

SDSU will be 5, SHSU 6, Wofford 7, and SUU the 8.

This is all assuming those teams and JMU win this weekend.

I would absolutely love that bracket for us.

i hope its the reverse... UCA 3 and Jax St 2

I think UCA might be pretty good. Jax is like Soft Houston.

(11-15-2017 10:21 AM)jmu98 Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 10:14 AM)South Main Wrote:  NDSU should be the #2 seed and they will send SDSU to our side of the bracket probably as the #5. Prob get Sammy on our side too if they put UCA as the #3.

UCA will be the 4 most likely IMO, with Jax St. taking the 3 behind NDSU.

SDSU will be 5, SHSU 6, Wofford 7, and SUU the 8.

This is all assuming those teams and JMU win this weekend.

I would absolutely love that bracket for us.

i'd prefer NDSU's side of the bracket if that's the case. the best three teams in the country are us, NDSU, and SDSU. SDSU will beat UCA and probably by multiple TDs.

NDSU would play Wofford (and would absolutely destroy them), then either Jax St./SHSU. neither of those teams has even the slightest chance to beat them. depending on who their Round of 16 opponent is, it would basically be a cakewalk to Frisco.

Yeah if that seed line holds, NDSU's side of the bracket would be much easier and that's bull****. NDSU will be walking to Frisco. None of those teams can knock them off in Fargo.

If Stony Brook wins, I think they might get a seed. It is criminal for the Southland to get two seeds and CAA to just have one.

(11-15-2017 11:20 AM)Dukie95 Wrote:  If Stony Brook wins, I think they might get a seed. It is criminal for the Southland to get two seeds and CAA to just have one.

Totally agree. Just when I was starting to think people were getting the hint. The Southland (or the Softland as I like to call them) is a complete joke.
The truth will come out like it always does. Their conference doesn't prepare them for the playoffs and it will show when they actually have to play a real opponent.
Meanwhile, the CAA will always be in the hunt as long as we don't have to play one another.

I know the chances are slim that we'll avoid a CAA team, but the road would be much easier if we could avoid our CAA foes.

since 2004, we are 10-6 in the playoffs.

here's how our record breaks down by conference:

CAA: 3-0
MVC: 2-2
SoCon: 2-1
Big Sky: 1-1
Southland: 1-0
Other: 1-2 (both losses at home)

basically, we want to avoid any "other" school at home :-)

I’m still holding out hope for two things:

1) that the last rankings hold and NDSU gets the 4 seed (or they lose Saturday)

2) that the “opposite side of bracket” reseeding rule might just be a rumor. Haven’t seen it in any official publication, and almost all the news on this seems to originate with a bison writer named Craig Haley. Last year NDSU faced SDSU in the quarterfinals, and both were seeded. Not sure his information source for this new rule.

A perfect world would be:
1) JMU
2) Jax St
3) UCA
4) NDSU
5) SDSU
6) SHSU
7) SB
8) Wofford

Don’t expect this outcome, but may be possible if the new seeding rule turns out false.

(11-15-2017 12:04 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  I’m still holding out hope for two things:

1) that the last rankings hold and NDSU gets the 4 seed (or they lose Saturday)

2) that the “opposite side of bracket” reseeding rule might just be a rumor. Haven’t seen it in any official publication, and almost all the news on this seems to originate with a bison writer named Craig Haley. Last year NDSU faced SDSU in the quarterfinals, and both were seeded. Not sure his information source for this new rule.

A perfect world would be:
1) JMU
2) Jax St
3) UCA
4) NDSU
5) SDSU
6) SHSU
7) SB
8) Wofford

Don’t expect this outcome, but may be possible if the new seeding rule turns out false.

it's only for 2nd round games, not the quarters.

teams from same conference can meet in final 8.

so looking into some of the seeded teams to see who might be our competition for the title, I found out Southern Utah was missing their starting QB when they lost to Sacramento State. he was hurt the week before and missed the entirety of that game. the backup threw 3 picks against Sac State.

he has played every other game and they are 8-1 in those games including wins over Weber, Eastern Washington and Northern Iowa, with the only loss being at Oregon.

they might be better than being given credit for.

(11-15-2017 12:28 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  so looking into some of the seeded teams to see who might be our competition for the title, I found out Southern Utah was missing their starting QB when they lost to Sacramento State. he was hurt the week before and missed the entirety of that game. the backup threw 3 picks against Sac State.

he has played every other game and they are 8-1 in those games including wins over Weber, Eastern Washington and Northern Iowa, with the only loss being at Oregon.

they might be better than being given credit for.

Good info. Put them in NDSU's side of the bracket.

(11-15-2017 12:22 PM)Duke Dawg Wrote:  

(11-15-2017 12:04 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  I’m still holding out hope for two things:

1) that the last rankings hold and NDSU gets the 4 seed (or they lose Saturday)

2) that the “opposite side of bracket” reseeding rule might just be a rumor. Haven’t seen it in any official publication, and almost all the news on this seems to originate with a bison writer named Craig Haley. Last year NDSU faced SDSU in the quarterfinals, and both were seeded. Not sure his information source for this new rule.

A perfect world would be:
1) JMU
2) Jax St
3) UCA
4) NDSU
5) SDSU
6) SHSU
7) SB
8) Wofford

Don’t expect this outcome, but may be possible if the new seeding rule turns out false.

it's only for 2nd round games, not the quarters.

teams from same conference can meet in final 8.

That is *almost* correct per the FCS Championship manual rules, as published on the NCAA website.

Here is the exact phrasing from the handbook:
Teams from the same conference will not be paired for first-round games (except for teams from the same conference that did not play against each other during the regular season; such teams may play each other in the first round);

http://www.ncaa.org/sites/default/files/...170914.pdf

I tend to believe they will follow that, unless there is an amendment this year that wasn't included in the manual.

Here is where the question comes up. A writer named Craig Haley at Stats has been stating "The playoff selection committee is charged with not putting two seeded teams from the same conference on the same side of the bracket"

http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=...3915607304

This quote has been picked up/repeated, but I haven't seen the source of his information, so not certain if this is a new rule this year, or he has some misinformation.

NDSU and SDSU are the main teams that concern me.