Sometimes our biases lag. Teams get good/bad and we still consider them one or the other. I wanted to see who had made the biggest moves either way. Some are obvious- Iowa State, for example. I looked the 5 year total rankings CFn does each year and compared them to the current massey composite to see who the biggest deltas are. Couldn't rind a multi-year computer average to use, so the cfn total win rankings was as good as I could find.

Much improved over their 5 year total wins ranks. These are teams that are significantly better than our biases might be (delta 50 or more):

Iowa State: change in rank +90
Wake Forest: +69
Purdue: +68
Virginia: +69
Boston College: +64
SMU: +63
FAU: +62
Army: +60
Wash St: +57
Kentucky: +56
USF: +53

Teams much lower than their 5 year total win rank (delta 50 or more):

Baylor: -89
Western Kentucky: -88
BYU: -71
North Carolina: -64
Rice: -64
ULL: -63
La TEch: -62
Cincy: -55
Florida: -51

Florida State and Georgia Southern are not happy campers this year.
Pitt is below expectations.

Rice just went back to their normal selves.


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The big question is always whether this year's improvement/deterioration represents a trend or just an anomaly.

Given the background, one might surmise that Baylor's recent success was the anomaly, and that they are returning to their (much) longer term selves. They are now in a position where, if the Big 12 were to disintegrate, they would almost surely be left out of power conference realignment.

(11-09-2017 10:49 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Sometimes our biases lag. Teams get good/bad and we still consider them one or the other. I wanted to see who had made the biggest moves either way. Some are obvious- Iowa State, for example. I looked the 5 year total rankings CFn does each year and compared them to the current massey composite to see who the biggest deltas are. Couldn't rind a multi-year computer average to use, so the cfn total win rankings was as good as I could find.

Much improved over their 5 year total wins ranks. These are teams that are significantly better than our biases might be (delta 50 or more):

Iowa State: change in rank +90
Wake Forest: +69
Purdue: +68
Virginia: +69
Boston College: +64
SMU: +63
FAU: +62
Army: +60
Wash St: +57
Kentucky: +56
USF: +53

Teams much lower than their 5 year total win rank (delta 50 or more):

Baylor: -89
Western Kentucky: -88
BYU: -71
North Carolina: -64
Rice: -64
ULL: -63
La TEch: -62
Cincy: -55
Florida: -51

We will be back... it will just take 2-3 years to dig out of the mess that Tuberville left in talent and culture.

(11-09-2017 12:53 PM)ken d Wrote:  The big question is always whether this year's improvement/deterioration represents a trend or just an anomaly.

Given the background, one might surmise that Baylor's recent success was the anomaly, and that they are returning to their (much) longer term selves. They are now in a position where, if the Big 12 were to disintegrate, they would almost surely be left out of power conference realignment.

Baylor is definitely going to be down for a while, but I don't think their success was an anomaly. It was real and could have been sustained if not for the off the field stuff and the downfall of their coach.

(11-09-2017 10:49 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Sometimes our biases lag. Teams get good/bad and we still consider them one or the other. I wanted to see who had made the biggest moves either way. Some are obvious- Iowa State, for example. I looked the 5 year total rankings CFn does each year and compared them to the current massey composite to see who the biggest deltas are. Couldn't rind a multi-year computer average to use, so the cfn total win rankings was as good as I could find.

Much improved over their 5 year total wins ranks. These are teams that are significantly better than our biases might be (delta 50 or more):

Iowa State: change in rank +90
Wake Forest: +69
Purdue: +68
Virginia: +69
Boston College: +64
SMU: +63
FAU: +62
Army: +60
Wash St: +57
Kentucky: +56
USF: +53

Good point, BUT sometimes our impressions don't lag, they can change quickly.

I think my Bulls are a good example: I don't think anyone regards our current 8-1 record as a 'surprise', even though it is way better than our average of the past five years. The reason is we won 11 games last year, and were ranked pre-season, such that the expectation going in to this year was that we were going to win a lot of games.

Plus, we also went 8-5 in 2015, so the recent trend is positive whereas the worst aspect of our five year record is more distant, namely the 2012-2014 years.

In our case, the recent success has seemingly succeeded in wiping out the years of failure between 2011-2014 in terms of what the public expectations are for us.

ND went 10-3 in 2015.

ND went 4-8 in 2016

ND is 8-1 so far in 2017.


One of these things is not like the other two.

ND has made a nice comeback and turnaround from a dismal 2016.

UAB? Although I think that's a special kind of reversal...

(11-09-2017 10:49 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  North Carolina: -64

A least UNC beat Pitt last night

South Carolina could be in there as well even though our five year average has us about where we are now:

2013: 11-2
2014: 7-6
2015: 3-9
2016: 6-7
2017: 6-3 currently

(11-10-2017 01:45 PM)Gamecock Wrote:  South Carolina could be in there as well even though our five year average has us about where we are now:

2013: 11-2
2014: 7-6
2015: 3-9
2016: 6-7
2017: 6-3 currently

I think Muschamp is doing a remarkable job this year. I would call it a turnaround.

Tennessee headed backwards as well.