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BadgerMJ Offline
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Post: #41
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-09-2017 09:07 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 07:22 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 03:33 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 02:23 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 12:41 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  This is a separate thought, but if Wisconsin actually gets shut out of the playoff as an undefeated Big Ten champ, that could be the event that shifts the thinking on an 8-team playoff.

I don't think that would happen. There's no way the committee will take a 1 loss ACC runner up over an undefeated B1G champion. People forget that if Wisconsin were to run the table, their last wins would be against a ranked Iowa, a probably ranked (after next week) Michigan, a bad Minnesota team, then a B1G championship win over a ranked PSU, MI ST, or tOSU. Add that with an early season victory over a now ranked NW team and their resume would look better 6 weeks from now.

Not saying they WILL, but if they do.....

Ranking at the time of the game doesn't matter- because they completely reset each week, it is how opponents are regarded in the final rankings that matter. NW, Iowa and Michigan are all projected to be 8-4. Historically about half of 8-4 teams get ranked. NW with no strong wins probably wouldn't be, while Iowa would have a good shot with wins over Penn State and Iowa State.

Which is one of my questions about the committee. Do they consider that a win over a team ranked 23 is basically the same quality of win as a win over a team ranked 27? Or are they blind to any team 26 and down?.

You're right, the rankings today really don't mean anything. We can project what they might look like and go from there. That's the exact reason I said that you play the schedule you're given and win the games you're supposed to win and go from there.

I'd ask the committee if they take into consideration the SOS BEFORE the season as well as SOS after. For example, Wisconsin had BYU this year. BYU has been a 8-9 win team every year for the last decade or so. Is it fair to punish them for scheduling a team that has a history of being good because they happen to play them in a down year? That's the main problem I have with SOS. When a school schedules, they can only base it in historical data. I'm sure the schools that had games scheduled against Michigan State and ND last year thought they would be playing a top 25 team. Both had bad years so, IMO, it isn't really fair to hold it against them.

Unfortunately, until there's metrics that can be measured and quantified, it will all come down to someone's opinion.

what else are you supposed to go off of? Why should you get credit for BYU being a bad team? I mean who should get more credit-
Wisconsin playing a BYU team last 5 years that was 42-23
Notre Dame playing a Miami team last 5 years that was 39-25

Of course Notre Dame should get more credit, because Miami is good in the period that you know, actually matters, this year.

The only thing where I'd say Wisconsin should get credit for BYU's recent history would be if they're compared to Washington with Rutgers as their best OOC.

Of course ND should get more credit because Miami is good this year, but considering that most of these schedules are made several years in advance, it isn't fair to punish teams for SOS based on the current year. If you want to add "points" for current competition, that's fine, but if you scheduled a team with a history of winning and happen to play them in an off year, that's an unforeseen circumstance. I'd hope the committee would take that into consideration.
11-09-2017 10:23 AM
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tcufrog86 Offline
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Post: #42
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-09-2017 10:23 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 09:07 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 07:22 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 03:33 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 02:23 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  I don't think that would happen. There's no way the committee will take a 1 loss ACC runner up over an undefeated B1G champion. People forget that if Wisconsin were to run the table, their last wins would be against a ranked Iowa, a probably ranked (after next week) Michigan, a bad Minnesota team, then a B1G championship win over a ranked PSU, MI ST, or tOSU. Add that with an early season victory over a now ranked NW team and their resume would look better 6 weeks from now.

Not saying they WILL, but if they do.....

Ranking at the time of the game doesn't matter- because they completely reset each week, it is how opponents are regarded in the final rankings that matter. NW, Iowa and Michigan are all projected to be 8-4. Historically about half of 8-4 teams get ranked. NW with no strong wins probably wouldn't be, while Iowa would have a good shot with wins over Penn State and Iowa State.

Which is one of my questions about the committee. Do they consider that a win over a team ranked 23 is basically the same quality of win as a win over a team ranked 27? Or are they blind to any team 26 and down?.

You're right, the rankings today really don't mean anything. We can project what they might look like and go from there. That's the exact reason I said that you play the schedule you're given and win the games you're supposed to win and go from there.

I'd ask the committee if they take into consideration the SOS BEFORE the season as well as SOS after. For example, Wisconsin had BYU this year. BYU has been a 8-9 win team every year for the last decade or so. Is it fair to punish them for scheduling a team that has a history of being good because they happen to play them in a down year? That's the main problem I have with SOS. When a school schedules, they can only base it in historical data. I'm sure the schools that had games scheduled against Michigan State and ND last year thought they would be playing a top 25 team. Both had bad years so, IMO, it isn't really fair to hold it against them.

Unfortunately, until there's metrics that can be measured and quantified, it will all come down to someone's opinion.

what else are you supposed to go off of? Why should you get credit for BYU being a bad team? I mean who should get more credit-
Wisconsin playing a BYU team last 5 years that was 42-23
Notre Dame playing a Miami team last 5 years that was 39-25

Of course Notre Dame should get more credit, because Miami is good in the period that you know, actually matters, this year.

The only thing where I'd say Wisconsin should get credit for BYU's recent history would be if they're compared to Washington with Rutgers as their best OOC.

Of course ND should get more credit because Miami is good this year, but considering that most of these schedules are made several years in advance, it isn't fair to punish teams for SOS based on the current year. If you want to add "points" for current competition, that's fine, but if you scheduled a team with a history of winning and happen to play them in an off year, that's an unforeseen circumstance. I'd hope the committee would take that into consideration.

I agree that the BYU game shouldn't be punished by the committee because it was scheduled years ago and BYU is typically above average to very good. It was also a true road game, something that some teams don't play in OOC (for example if I am looking right, Bama hasn't played a OOC road game since 2011).

Wisconsin got a bad draw this year with BYU being down and a bad cross over bunch of games in the Big 10.
11-09-2017 10:43 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #43
RE: Latest CFP Poll
the fact is though every single team ahead of Wisconsin has a good OOC opponent...
Alabama- if you are giving Wisconsin BYU, FSU light years better than BYU
Georgia- Notre Dame
Notre Dame- Georgia, Miami
Clemson- Auburn
Oklahoma- Ohio St
TCU- Arkansas(ok, maybe this one, but they probably lose and so moot point)
Miami- Notre Dame

BYU doesn't measure up to any of these(except Arkansas) even if they were in their normal season. And the conference schedule is the weakest possible. THAT'S where Wisconsin really gets hurt.
(This post was last modified: 11-09-2017 10:51 AM by stever20.)
11-09-2017 10:49 AM
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Post: #44
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-09-2017 10:43 AM)tcufrog86 Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 10:23 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 09:07 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 07:22 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 03:33 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  Ranking at the time of the game doesn't matter- because they completely reset each week, it is how opponents are regarded in the final rankings that matter. NW, Iowa and Michigan are all projected to be 8-4. Historically about half of 8-4 teams get ranked. NW with no strong wins probably wouldn't be, while Iowa would have a good shot with wins over Penn State and Iowa State.

Which is one of my questions about the committee. Do they consider that a win over a team ranked 23 is basically the same quality of win as a win over a team ranked 27? Or are they blind to any team 26 and down?.

You're right, the rankings today really don't mean anything. We can project what they might look like and go from there. That's the exact reason I said that you play the schedule you're given and win the games you're supposed to win and go from there.

I'd ask the committee if they take into consideration the SOS BEFORE the season as well as SOS after. For example, Wisconsin had BYU this year. BYU has been a 8-9 win team every year for the last decade or so. Is it fair to punish them for scheduling a team that has a history of being good because they happen to play them in a down year? That's the main problem I have with SOS. When a school schedules, they can only base it in historical data. I'm sure the schools that had games scheduled against Michigan State and ND last year thought they would be playing a top 25 team. Both had bad years so, IMO, it isn't really fair to hold it against them.

Unfortunately, until there's metrics that can be measured and quantified, it will all come down to someone's opinion.

what else are you supposed to go off of? Why should you get credit for BYU being a bad team? I mean who should get more credit-
Wisconsin playing a BYU team last 5 years that was 42-23
Notre Dame playing a Miami team last 5 years that was 39-25

Of course Notre Dame should get more credit, because Miami is good in the period that you know, actually matters, this year.

The only thing where I'd say Wisconsin should get credit for BYU's recent history would be if they're compared to Washington with Rutgers as their best OOC.

Of course ND should get more credit because Miami is good this year, but considering that most of these schedules are made several years in advance, it isn't fair to punish teams for SOS based on the current year. If you want to add "points" for current competition, that's fine, but if you scheduled a team with a history of winning and happen to play them in an off year, that's an unforeseen circumstance. I'd hope the committee would take that into consideration.

I agree that the BYU game shouldn't be punished by the committee because it was scheduled years ago and BYU is typically above average to very good. It was also a true road game, something that some teams don't play in OOC (for example if I am looking right, Bama hasn't played a OOC road game since 2011).

Wisconsin got a bad draw this year with BYU being down and a bad cross over bunch of games in the Big 10.

Well, Alabama isn't exactly being helped by F.S.U. either.
11-09-2017 10:49 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #45
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-09-2017 10:49 AM)JRsec Wrote:  Well, Alabama isn't exactly being helped by F.S.U. either.

It doesn't matter, because if Alabama wins out they will not only be in the playoffs, they will be #1 as well.

That said, it isn't really fair that Alabama isn't being helped by FSU. IMO, there's little doubt that had FSU's quarterback not gotten injured in the Alabama game, FSU would be a very good team right now, probably 7-2, and ranked in the top 15.

They aren't any good because Alabama knocked their QB out, so it's bad twist of tate that this win doesn't count for much now.

Seriously, if you play another team, you want to beat them, and impressively, but not TOO bad such that you break them, either physically or psychologically, because then they will lose more games, which then harms your SOS.
(This post was last modified: 11-09-2017 11:09 AM by quo vadis.)
11-09-2017 11:07 AM
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panite Offline
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Post: #46
RE: Latest CFP Poll
Its elimination week for 2 of 4 of the top contenders for the play off.

Miami 8-0 vs. ND 8-1.

Oklahoma 8-1 vs. TCU 8-1

Miami might have a chance if it loses a tight 1 point loss against ND and then meets and beats a possible 11-1 Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. 07-coffee3 04-cheers
11-09-2017 12:44 PM
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Post: #47
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-09-2017 12:44 PM)panite Wrote:  Its elimination week for 2 of 4 of the top contenders for the play off.

Miami 8-0 vs. ND 8-1.

Oklahoma 8-1 vs. TCU 8-1

Miami might have a chance if it loses a tight 1 point loss against ND and then meets and beats a possible 11-1 Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. 07-coffee3 04-cheers

I wouldn't count out ND at 10-2. I mean if Pac 12 champion is USC and Big Ten champion is Michigan St- ND has h2h wins over both of them.

And this committee really seems to value h2h way more than some of the other committees did.
11-09-2017 12:52 PM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #48
RE: Latest CFP Poll
I wouldn't surprised if we dip down into the 2 loss teams this year. Just a feeling that more upsets are coming. The top 10 really hasn't set itself apart as much as some years.

Was listening to Bill Connelly's podcast who made that point. Looking at the S&P+ margin rankings comparing 2016 to 2017, the cream hasn't risen up as much. Even Alabama would only be #7 last year. Only a few others would even be top 10. It's just not a year with dominant teams.
11-09-2017 01:36 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #49
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-09-2017 12:44 PM)panite Wrote:  Its elimination week for 2 of 4 of the top contenders for the play off.

Miami 8-0 vs. ND 8-1.

Oklahoma 8-1 vs. TCU 8-1

Miami might have a chance if it loses a tight 1 point loss against ND and then meets and beats a possible 11-1 Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. 07-coffee3 04-cheers

I don't think Miami has any reasonable chance at all if they lose. They wouldn't get past either SEC team, or Notre Dame, or Oklahoma, or a one-loss BIG champ.

Would they still have a sliver of a chance? Sure, if all hell breaks loose above them. In that sense any of the other four that lose this weekend do too. But the odds would just be very low for them.

Basically, those games are elimination games, the losers are gone.
(This post was last modified: 11-09-2017 01:47 PM by quo vadis.)
11-09-2017 01:46 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #50
RE: Latest CFP Poll
I don't know about the 2 losses.

I mean-
You have 1 spot with Alabama/Georgia almost guaranteed with only 0-1 loss.
You have 1 spot with Clemson/Miami almost guarnteed with only 0-1 loss.
If ND beats Miami- they should finish with 1 loss

then either Washington or the TCU/Oklahoma winner with 1 loss. And quite possibly the Georgia/Alabama loser finishes with 1 loss.

we'll know a LOT more about this after this weekend. If Georgia, Notre Dame win- odds start to really tilt in the favor of having at least 4 0-1 loss teams.
11-09-2017 01:49 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #51
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-09-2017 01:46 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-09-2017 12:44 PM)panite Wrote:  Its elimination week for 2 of 4 of the top contenders for the play off.

Miami 8-0 vs. ND 8-1.

Oklahoma 8-1 vs. TCU 8-1

Miami might have a chance if it loses a tight 1 point loss against ND and then meets and beats a possible 11-1 Clemson in the ACC Championship Game. 07-coffee3 04-cheers

I don't think Miami has any reasonable chance at all if they lose. They wouldn't get past either SEC team, or Notre Dame, or Oklahoma, or a one-loss BIG champ.

Would they still have a sliver of a chance? Sure, if all hell breaks loose above them. In that sense any of the other four that lose this weekend do too. But the odds would just be very low for them.

Basically, those games are elimination games, the losers are gone.

I wouldn't be so sure of that at all....
it really wouldn't take much for Miami to get back in. I mean- Miami would beat Clemson knocking them out. Oklahoma is the tough 1 but if they lose again- they're vulnerable. I think Miami with win over Clemson gets in over a 1 loss Wisconsin team with a bad OOC schedule.

And also really Notre Dame. I mean- they could easily wind up with wins over B10 champ Michigan St and P12 champ USC. Both convincingly. They would need a bit of help- but definitely not the all hell breaks loose type of scenario.
11-09-2017 01:52 PM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #52
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-09-2017 01:49 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I don't know about the 2 losses.

I mean-
You have 1 spot with Alabama/Georgia almost guaranteed with only 0-1 loss.
You have 1 spot with Clemson/Miami almost guarnteed with only 0-1 loss.
If ND beats Miami- they should finish with 1 loss

then either Washington or the TCU/Oklahoma winner with 1 loss. And quite possibly the Georgia/Alabama loser finishes with 1 loss.

we'll know a LOT more about this after this weekend. If Georgia, Notre Dame win- odds start to really tilt in the favor of having at least 4 0-1 loss teams.

It would take a few more Iowa over Ohio State and Mich ST over Penn St upsets for sure, but the year it happens is when the top teams aren't as good. I do think an argument can be made that this year the cream hasn't risen as much as some years. And according to FPI there are three leagues (Big 12, PAC-12 and Big 10) where it is now more likely than not the champ will have multiple losses. 65% chance the Big 10 has a 2 loss champion, 60% chance the Pac-12 has a 2 loss champion and 55% chance the Big 12 has a 2 loss champion. 64% chance ND gets beat as well. Now the chances all of those things happen is low (only 14%) but if 3 of them happening is about and additional 22%. If it is 3 you'd have a 0 or 1 loss SEC champ, 0 or 1 loss ACC champ and one more. Suddenly you are looking at any 1 loss non-champs and the 2 loss champs. Just a few more upsets and that likelihood will go way up.
11-09-2017 02:06 PM
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Post: #53
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-09-2017 01:49 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I don't know about the 2 losses.

I mean-
You have 1 spot with Alabama/Georgia almost guaranteed with only 0-1 loss.
You have 1 spot with Clemson/Miami almost guarnteed with only 0-1 loss.
If ND beats Miami- they should finish with 1 loss

then either Washington or the TCU/Oklahoma winner with 1 loss. And quite possibly the Georgia/Alabama loser finishes with 1 loss.

we'll know a LOT more about this after this weekend. If Georgia, Notre Dame win- odds start to really tilt in the favor of having at least 4 0-1 loss teams.

http://csnbbs.com/thread-832186.html

You are somewhat forgetting about CCGs, stever20. If these top teams aren't as dominant as past years, they are more susceptible to upsets.
11-10-2017 02:13 AM
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Post: #54
RE: Latest CFP Poll
Going to have 2 conferences that should have title game with 0-1 loss teams on both sides. So no upsets there either way really.
ND wins and they should finish 11-1.

So it's actually really simple.
Notre Dame at 11-1
Miami at 10-1 vs Clemson at 11-1
Georgia at 12-0 vs Alabama at 12-0

If Georgia and Notre Dame both win this weekend.
Georgia must go 1-1 vs Kentucky and Georgia Tech to enter Atlanta at 11-1
Alabama must go 1-1 vs Murcer and Auburn to enter Atlanta at 11-1
Miami must go 2-0 vs Virginia and Pitt to enter Charlotte at 10-1
Clemson must go 3-0 vs FSU, Citadel, and S Carolina to enter Charlotte at 11-1
Notre Dame must go 2-0 vs Wake, Stanford to finish at 11-1

And that's before you get the teams like Oklahoma and Washington and Wisconsin.

I think by far teams like your PSU's best hope is for Miami and Auburn to win this weekend.
11-10-2017 02:28 AM
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panite Offline
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Post: #55
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-10-2017 02:28 AM)stever20 Wrote:  Going to have 2 conferences that should have title game with 0-1 loss teams on both sides. So no upsets there either way really.
ND wins and they should finish 11-1.

So it's actually really simple.
Notre Dame at 11-1
Miami at 10-1 vs Clemson at 11-1
Georgia at 12-0 vs Alabama at 12-0

If Georgia and Notre Dame both win this weekend.
Georgia must go 1-1 vs Kentucky and Georgia Tech to enter Atlanta at 11-1
Alabama must go 1-1 vs Murcer and Auburn to enter Atlanta at 11-1
Miami must go 2-0 vs Virginia and Pitt to enter Charlotte at 10-1
Clemson must go 3-0 vs FSU, Citadel, and S Carolina to enter Charlotte at 11-1
Notre Dame must go 2-0 vs Wake, Stanford to finish at 11-1

And that's before you get the teams like Oklahoma and Washington and Wisconsin.

I think by far teams like your PSU's best hope is for Miami and Auburn to win this weekend.

This week's game is ND's Championship Game against Miami for the play off. If they win they should be heavily favored to be in the 4 team play off. Don't see them losing to Navy or Stanford while finishing out their schedule. 03-shhhh 07-coffee3 04-cheers
11-10-2017 10:19 AM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #56
RE: Latest CFP Poll
ND is definitely the one everyone on the bubble should be rooting against. The other team to root against is Clemson to lose before the CCG. Not much chance for an upset but if they are upset suddenly there's a coin flip or slightly better chance for a 2 loss ACC champ no matter what Miami does.
11-10-2017 10:38 AM
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Post: #57
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-09-2017 01:49 PM)stever20 Wrote:  I don't know about the 2 losses.

I mean-
You have 1 spot with Alabama/Georgia almost guaranteed with only 0-1 loss.
You have 1 spot with Clemson/Miami almost guarnteed with only 0-1 loss.
If ND beats Miami- they should finish with 1 loss

then either Washington or the TCU/Oklahoma winner with 1 loss. And quite possibly the Georgia/Alabama loser finishes with 1 loss.

we'll know a LOT more about this after this weekend. If Georgia, Notre Dame win- odds start to really tilt in the favor of having at least 4 0-1 loss teams.

Don't worry about that. We're taking Georgia out of the top 4 this weekend! :)
11-10-2017 10:59 PM
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Post: #58
RE: Latest CFP Poll
This week I'm going with:

1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Miami
4. OU
5. Auburn
6. Wisconsin
7. UGa

Potential nightmare scenarios for the committee would be:

1. Bama losing in the SEC Ccg to finish 12-1
2. OU losing to TCU or OSU in the Big 12 champ
3. Miami losing to Clemson to finish 12-1
4. OSU blowing out Wisconsin in the B1G CCG

I don't think Bama can get in if they lose to Auburn. Need to get out of your own state rivalry to win a national title. Game is @Auburn.

UGa is fine. Just a bad game.

Miami might get screwed if they lose a close game in the ACC champ.
11-12-2017 09:06 AM
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Post: #59
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-12-2017 09:06 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  This week I'm going with:

1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Miami
4. OU
5. Auburn
6. Wisconsin
7. UGa

Potential nightmare scenarios for the committee would be:

1. Bama losing in the SEC Ccg to finish 12-1
2. OU losing to TCU or OSU in the Big 12 champ
3. Miami losing to Clemson to finish 12-1
4. OSU blowing out Wisconsin in the B1G CCG

I don't think Bama can get in if they lose to Auburn. Need to get out of your own state rivalry to win a national title. Game is @Auburn.

UGa is fine. Just a bad game.

Miami might get screwed if they lose a close game in the ACC champ.

Auburn's not going to jump that high. They have 2 losses. They've got two good wins, but both at home.

My guess is:
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
those two are obvious, then it gets trickier to guess what they will do:
3 OU
4 Miami
5 Wisconsin
6 Georgia
7 Auburn
8 Notre Dame
9 USC
10 TCU

Miami and Wisconsin's wins give them some credibility that they didn't have before. Probably not enough to jump OU who just had a big win.
11-12-2017 09:45 AM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #60
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-12-2017 09:45 AM)bullet Wrote:  
(11-12-2017 09:06 AM)RUScarlets Wrote:  This week I'm going with:

1. Bama
2. Clemson
3. Miami
4. OU
5. Auburn
6. Wisconsin
7. UGa

Potential nightmare scenarios for the committee would be:

1. Bama losing in the SEC Ccg to finish 12-1
2. OU losing to TCU or OSU in the Big 12 champ
3. Miami losing to Clemson to finish 12-1
4. OSU blowing out Wisconsin in the B1G CCG

I don't think Bama can get in if they lose to Auburn. Need to get out of your own state rivalry to win a national title. Game is @Auburn.

UGa is fine. Just a bad game.

Miami might get screwed if they lose a close game in the ACC champ.

Auburn's not going to jump that high. They have 2 losses. They've got two good wins, but both at home.

My guess is:
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
those two are obvious, then it gets trickier to guess what they will do:
3 OU
4 Miami
5 Wisconsin
6 Georgia
7 Auburn
8 Notre Dame
9 USC
10 TCU

Miami and Wisconsin's wins give them some credibility that they didn't have before. Probably not enough to jump OU who just had a big win.

I’m not sure the order of Clemson, OU and Miami. I could see any order of those 3. Alabama will be 1 and Wisconsin 5.
11-12-2017 09:55 AM
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