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stever20 Online
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Post: #21
RE: Latest CFP Poll
the 13th data point was really for the top teams getting the CCG opponents. Ohio St in 2014 for instance got to add a #13 Wisconsin team. That helps a lot to make the schedule a lot better.
11-08-2017 08:57 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #22
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-08-2017 08:12 AM)ken d Wrote:  That whole "13th data point" stuff is a bunch of hooey. Would Notre Dame be considered more worthy if they had scheduled a game at Hawaii for a 13th data point?

I agree. I've always said that, e.g., if Wisconsin plays 13 games, with Austin Peay as a week two cupcake and #2 Ohio State in the B1G title game, why is the B1G title game the "13th point" any more than the Austin Peay game is?

Has never made sense.
11-08-2017 10:10 AM
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Post: #23
RE: Latest CFP Poll
Okay here is a fun scenario. UGA beats Bagina in the SEC Championship 35-34 and Clemson beats an undefeated in Miami 28-27. Wisconson and OK lose in their CCG. What does the CFP do? Could the final four be.

1. UGA
2. BAMA
3. Clemson
4. Miami

Talk about some screaming. Again, I don't think it would happen but the CFP goes by the top four teams not Conference champs.
11-08-2017 11:58 AM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #24
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-08-2017 11:58 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Okay here is a fun scenario. UGA beats Bagina in the SEC Championship 35-34 and Clemson beats an undefeated in Miami 28-27. Wisconson and OK lose in their CCG. What does the CFP do? Could the final four be.

1. UGA
2. BAMA
3. Clemson
4. Miami

Talk about some screaming. Again, I don't think it would happen but the CFP goes by the top four teams not Conference champs.

If Oklahoma beats TCU in the regular season then loses to TCU in the XII championship game, if Wisconsin loses any game (especially the B1G championship game), and if the PAC champion has at least 2 losses then its possible. Miami going undefeated would mean Notre Dame has 2 losses as well.

The order would likely be:

1. SEC Champion (undefeated Georgia or Alabama)
2. Clemson
3. SEC Runner-Up (1-loss Georgia or Alabama)
4. Miami
---
5. XII Champion
6. Notre Dame
(This post was last modified: 11-08-2017 12:12 PM by BePcr07.)
11-08-2017 12:11 PM
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Post: #25
RE: Latest CFP Poll
Any chance Miami is in as a runner up if Bama loses 2x?

UGa 13-0
Clemson 12-1
OU/TCU 12-1
Miami 12-1
Wisconsin 13-0
ND 10-2 (loss to Maimi)
Bama 10-2

I think I'd take Wisconsin at 4 but it would be close.
11-08-2017 12:32 PM
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Frank the Tank Offline
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RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-08-2017 12:32 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Any chance Miami is in as a runner up if Bama loses 2x?

UGa 13-0
Clemson 12-1
OU/TCU 12-1
Miami 12-1
Wisconsin 13-0
ND 10-2 (loss to Maimi)
Bama 10-2

I think I'd take Wisconsin at 4 but it would be close.

This is a separate thought, but if Wisconsin actually gets shut out of the playoff as an undefeated Big Ten champ, that could be the event that shifts the thinking on an 8-team playoff.
11-08-2017 12:41 PM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #27
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-08-2017 12:41 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 12:32 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Any chance Miami is in as a runner up if Bama loses 2x?

UGa 13-0
Clemson 12-1
OU/TCU 12-1
Miami 12-1
Wisconsin 13-0
ND 10-2 (loss to Maimi)
Bama 10-2

I think I'd take Wisconsin at 4 but it would be close.

This is a separate thought, but if Wisconsin actually gets shut out of the playoff as an undefeated Big Ten champ, that could be the event that shifts the thinking on an 8-team playoff.

Yeah, its only a matter of time until each league gets screwed. Each time it happens it should increase the chances for 8 at some point.
11-08-2017 12:42 PM
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Post: #28
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-08-2017 11:58 AM)msm96wolf Wrote:  Okay here is a fun scenario. UGA beats Bagina in the SEC Championship 35-34 and Clemson beats an undefeated in Miami 28-27. Wisconson and OK lose in their CCG. What does the CFP do? Could the final four be.

1. UGA
2. BAMA
3. Clemson
4. Miami

Talk about some screaming. Again, I don't think it would happen but the CFP goes by the top four teams not Conference champs.

You're forgetting Washington.

Washington wins the PAC and goes 12-1, they're in over Miami, no doubts.
11-08-2017 02:17 PM
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Post: #29
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-08-2017 12:41 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 12:32 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Any chance Miami is in as a runner up if Bama loses 2x?

UGa 13-0
Clemson 12-1
OU/TCU 12-1
Miami 12-1
Wisconsin 13-0
ND 10-2 (loss to Maimi)
Bama 10-2


I think I'd take Wisconsin at 4 but it would be close.

This is a separate thought, but if Wisconsin actually gets shut out of the playoff as an undefeated Big Ten champ, that could be the event that shifts the thinking on an 8-team playoff.

I don't think that would happen. There's no way the committee will take a 1 loss ACC runner up over an undefeated B1G champion. People forget that if Wisconsin were to run the table, their last wins would be against a ranked Iowa, a probably ranked (after next week) Michigan, a bad Minnesota team, then a B1G championship win over a ranked PSU, MI ST, or tOSU. Add that with an early season victory over a now ranked NW team and their resume would look better 6 weeks from now.

Not saying they WILL, but if they do.....
11-08-2017 02:23 PM
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Wedge Offline
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Post: #30
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-08-2017 12:42 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 12:41 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 12:32 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Any chance Miami is in as a runner up if Bama loses 2x?

UGa 13-0
Clemson 12-1
OU/TCU 12-1
Miami 12-1
Wisconsin 13-0
ND 10-2 (loss to Maimi)
Bama 10-2

I think I'd take Wisconsin at 4 but it would be close.

This is a separate thought, but if Wisconsin actually gets shut out of the playoff as an undefeated Big Ten champ, that could be the event that shifts the thinking on an 8-team playoff.

Yeah, its only a matter of time until each league gets screwed. Each time it happens it should increase the chances for 8 at some point.

Though, "left out" and "screwed" are not one and the same. I don't see a lot of outrage for 2-loss teams being left out when there are 4 or more teams with fewer losses, and the outrage is limited if there are 5 or more teams with fewer than 2 losses given that the playoff only has room for 4.

But the scenario that you're talking about, an undefeated P5 champ being left out while one-loss teams are in -- a scenario that, in truth, is so unlikely that it's not worth much discussion -- would certainly be deemed "screwed" by whomever is left out in that instance. The same would be true if a one-loss P5 champ is left out while a 2-loss team gets in.
11-08-2017 02:55 PM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #31
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-08-2017 02:23 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 12:41 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 12:32 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Any chance Miami is in as a runner up if Bama loses 2x?

UGa 13-0
Clemson 12-1
OU/TCU 12-1
Miami 12-1
Wisconsin 13-0
ND 10-2 (loss to Maimi)
Bama 10-2


I think I'd take Wisconsin at 4 but it would be close.

This is a separate thought, but if Wisconsin actually gets shut out of the playoff as an undefeated Big Ten champ, that could be the event that shifts the thinking on an 8-team playoff.

I don't think that would happen. There's no way the committee will take a 1 loss ACC runner up over an undefeated B1G champion. People forget that if Wisconsin were to run the table, their last wins would be against a ranked Iowa, a probably ranked (after next week) Michigan, a bad Minnesota team, then a B1G championship win over a ranked PSU, MI ST, or tOSU. Add that with an early season victory over a now ranked NW team and their resume would look better 6 weeks from now.

Not saying they WILL, but if they do.....

Ranking at the time of the game doesn't matter- because they completely reset each week, it is how opponents are regarded in the final rankings that matter. NW, Iowa and Michigan are all projected to be 8-4. Historically about half of 8-4 teams get ranked. NW with no strong wins probably wouldn't be, while Iowa would have a good shot with wins over Penn State and Iowa State.

Which is one of my questions about the committee. Do they consider that a win over a team ranked 23 is basically the same quality of win as a win over a team ranked 27? Or are they blind to any team 26 and down?.
11-08-2017 03:33 PM
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TripleA Offline
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Post: #32
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-08-2017 10:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 08:12 AM)ken d Wrote:  That whole "13th data point" stuff is a bunch of hooey. Would Notre Dame be considered more worthy if they had scheduled a game at Hawaii for a 13th data point?

I agree. I've always said that, e.g., if Wisconsin plays 13 games, with Austin Peay as a week two cupcake and #2 Ohio State in the B1G title game, why is the B1G title game the "13th point" any more than the Austin Peay game is?

Has never made sense.

Easy. B/c the first 2 years of the CFP, it became an issue when Big 12 teams, without a CCG, were getting shut out at the last minute, while other teams were playing that extra game, usually against a quality team (a division champ).

One of the CFP members (the chairman) used that phrase (13th data point) to explain how the Big 12 teams got jumped.

It is also why the Big 12 scheduled rival games and moved them back a week the next year, then later added a CCG, even without expanding.

And your Austin Peay analogy doesn't apply, b/c we're talking bout the last game of the season, which is critical for the final rankings.

Other P5s were playing CCGs and getting all the headlines, while the Big 12 sat idle.
11-08-2017 03:47 PM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #33
RE: Latest CFP Poll
Wisconsin's likely opponent records if they win out:

CCG opponent: 10-3
Michigan 8-4
Iowa 8-4
NW 8-4
FAU 9-4
Utah State- 6-6
Indiana 5-7
Nebraska 5-7
Purdue 5-7
Rutgers 4-8
Maryland 4-8
BYU 4-9
Illinois 2-10

The east opponent will be ranked probably in the 10-15 range. Tough to say where 8-4 NW, Michigan and Iowa will be. Probably 1 or 2 will be ranked. If FAU wins out they could be ranked at 10-3 and CUSA champs.
11-08-2017 03:48 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #34
RE: Latest CFP Poll
1 thing i'd say is we've seen more parity this year than normal. We only have 35 P5 teams with fewer than 5 losses. So I don't think we're going to have more than about 20 teams like that. Meaning we're going to even see some 5 loss teams ranked.
11-08-2017 04:03 PM
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ken d Online
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Post: #35
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-08-2017 03:47 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 10:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 08:12 AM)ken d Wrote:  That whole "13th data point" stuff is a bunch of hooey. Would Notre Dame be considered more worthy if they had scheduled a game at Hawaii for a 13th data point?

I agree. I've always said that, e.g., if Wisconsin plays 13 games, with Austin Peay as a week two cupcake and #2 Ohio State in the B1G title game, why is the B1G title game the "13th point" any more than the Austin Peay game is?

Has never made sense.

Easy. B/c the first 2 years of the CFP, it became an issue when Big 12 teams, without a CCG, were getting shut out at the last minute, while other teams were playing that extra game, usually against a quality team (a division champ).

One of the CFP members (the chairman) used that phrase (13th data point) to explain how the Big 12 teams got jumped.

It is also why the Big 12 scheduled rival games and moved them back a week the next year, then later added a CCG, even without expanding.

And your Austin Peay analogy doesn't apply, b/c we're talking bout the last game of the season, which is critical for the final rankings.

Other P5s were playing CCGs and getting all the headlines, while the Big 12 sat idle.

So you are saying the selection committee is easily fooled by subterfuge and sleight of hand. They vote for the shiny new toy instead of the sturdy one they got last week. Doesn't say much for their supposed "expertise".
11-08-2017 04:13 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #36
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-08-2017 03:47 PM)TripleA Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 10:10 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 08:12 AM)ken d Wrote:  That whole "13th data point" stuff is a bunch of hooey. Would Notre Dame be considered more worthy if they had scheduled a game at Hawaii for a 13th data point?

I agree. I've always said that, e.g., if Wisconsin plays 13 games, with Austin Peay as a week two cupcake and #2 Ohio State in the B1G title game, why is the B1G title game the "13th point" any more than the Austin Peay game is?

Has never made sense.

Easy. B/c the first 2 years of the CFP, it became an issue when Big 12 teams, without a CCG, were getting shut out at the last minute, while other teams were playing that extra game, usually against a quality team (a division champ).

One of the CFP members (the chairman) used that phrase (13th data point) to explain how the Big 12 teams got jumped.

It is also why the Big 12 scheduled rival games and moved them back a week the next year, then later added a CCG, even without expanding.

And your Austin Peay analogy doesn't apply, b/c we're talking bout the last game of the season, which is critical for the final rankings.

Other P5s were playing CCGs and getting all the headlines, while the Big 12 sat idle.

I know the history of how the "13th point" term came in to usage. If you follow college football, you can't help but know. And FWIW, the Big 12 did get in to the playoffs in the second year of the CFP, so clearly the lack of a 13th data point didn't keep them out that year.

And yes, the Austin Peay analogy does work, because the last game of the season isn't any more the "13th game" in the sense of having played 13 games than any other game is. Obviously, the last game is critical because it's the last game that factors in to the final rankings. But it isn't "13" any more than the week two games is.
11-08-2017 04:23 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #37
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-08-2017 12:41 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 12:32 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Any chance Miami is in as a runner up if Bama loses 2x?

UGa 13-0
Clemson 12-1
OU/TCU 12-1
Miami 12-1
Wisconsin 13-0
ND 10-2 (loss to Maimi)
Bama 10-2

I think I'd take Wisconsin at 4 but it would be close.

This is a separate thought, but if Wisconsin actually gets shut out of the playoff as an undefeated Big Ten champ, that could be the event that shifts the thinking on an 8-team playoff.

Yes, there's definitely a theory floating around that says the current system won't change until it burns either the SEC or B1G in the arse with a very painful outcome, because unless one of those two heavyweights wants change, it isn't happening.

And having an unbeaten champ left out would be that kind of thing.
11-08-2017 04:26 PM
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Post: #38
RE: Latest CFP Poll
Auburn upsets Georgia
Miami over Notre Dame

This week's crazy picks.
11-08-2017 04:56 PM
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BadgerMJ Online
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Post: #39
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-08-2017 03:33 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 02:23 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 12:41 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 12:32 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Any chance Miami is in as a runner up if Bama loses 2x?

UGa 13-0
Clemson 12-1
OU/TCU 12-1
Miami 12-1
Wisconsin 13-0
ND 10-2 (loss to Maimi)
Bama 10-2


I think I'd take Wisconsin at 4 but it would be close.

This is a separate thought, but if Wisconsin actually gets shut out of the playoff as an undefeated Big Ten champ, that could be the event that shifts the thinking on an 8-team playoff.

I don't think that would happen. There's no way the committee will take a 1 loss ACC runner up over an undefeated B1G champion. People forget that if Wisconsin were to run the table, their last wins would be against a ranked Iowa, a probably ranked (after next week) Michigan, a bad Minnesota team, then a B1G championship win over a ranked PSU, MI ST, or tOSU. Add that with an early season victory over a now ranked NW team and their resume would look better 6 weeks from now.

Not saying they WILL, but if they do.....

Ranking at the time of the game doesn't matter- because they completely reset each week, it is how opponents are regarded in the final rankings that matter. NW, Iowa and Michigan are all projected to be 8-4. Historically about half of 8-4 teams get ranked. NW with no strong wins probably wouldn't be, while Iowa would have a good shot with wins over Penn State and Iowa State.

Which is one of my questions about the committee. Do they consider that a win over a team ranked 23 is basically the same quality of win as a win over a team ranked 27? Or are they blind to any team 26 and down?.

You're right, the rankings today really don't mean anything. We can project what they might look like and go from there. That's the exact reason I said that you play the schedule you're given and win the games you're supposed to win and go from there.

I'd ask the committee if they take into consideration the SOS BEFORE the season as well as SOS after. For example, Wisconsin had BYU this year. BYU has been a 8-9 win team every year for the last decade or so. Is it fair to punish them for scheduling a team that has a history of being good because they happen to play them in a down year? That's the main problem I have with SOS. When a school schedules, they can only base it in historical data. I'm sure the schools that had games scheduled against Michigan State and ND last year thought they would be playing a top 25 team. Both had bad years so, IMO, it isn't really fair to hold it against them.

Unfortunately, until there's metrics that can be measured and quantified, it will all come down to someone's opinion.
11-09-2017 07:22 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #40
RE: Latest CFP Poll
(11-09-2017 07:22 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 03:33 PM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 02:23 PM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 12:41 PM)Frank the Tank Wrote:  
(11-08-2017 12:32 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Any chance Miami is in as a runner up if Bama loses 2x?

UGa 13-0
Clemson 12-1
OU/TCU 12-1
Miami 12-1
Wisconsin 13-0
ND 10-2 (loss to Maimi)
Bama 10-2


I think I'd take Wisconsin at 4 but it would be close.

This is a separate thought, but if Wisconsin actually gets shut out of the playoff as an undefeated Big Ten champ, that could be the event that shifts the thinking on an 8-team playoff.

I don't think that would happen. There's no way the committee will take a 1 loss ACC runner up over an undefeated B1G champion. People forget that if Wisconsin were to run the table, their last wins would be against a ranked Iowa, a probably ranked (after next week) Michigan, a bad Minnesota team, then a B1G championship win over a ranked PSU, MI ST, or tOSU. Add that with an early season victory over a now ranked NW team and their resume would look better 6 weeks from now.

Not saying they WILL, but if they do.....

Ranking at the time of the game doesn't matter- because they completely reset each week, it is how opponents are regarded in the final rankings that matter. NW, Iowa and Michigan are all projected to be 8-4. Historically about half of 8-4 teams get ranked. NW with no strong wins probably wouldn't be, while Iowa would have a good shot with wins over Penn State and Iowa State.

Which is one of my questions about the committee. Do they consider that a win over a team ranked 23 is basically the same quality of win as a win over a team ranked 27? Or are they blind to any team 26 and down?.

You're right, the rankings today really don't mean anything. We can project what they might look like and go from there. That's the exact reason I said that you play the schedule you're given and win the games you're supposed to win and go from there.

I'd ask the committee if they take into consideration the SOS BEFORE the season as well as SOS after. For example, Wisconsin had BYU this year. BYU has been a 8-9 win team every year for the last decade or so. Is it fair to punish them for scheduling a team that has a history of being good because they happen to play them in a down year? That's the main problem I have with SOS. When a school schedules, they can only base it in historical data. I'm sure the schools that had games scheduled against Michigan State and ND last year thought they would be playing a top 25 team. Both had bad years so, IMO, it isn't really fair to hold it against them.

Unfortunately, until there's metrics that can be measured and quantified, it will all come down to someone's opinion.

what else are you supposed to go off of? Why should you get credit for BYU being a bad team? I mean who should get more credit-
Wisconsin playing a BYU team last 5 years that was 42-23
Notre Dame playing a Miami team last 5 years that was 39-25

Of course Notre Dame should get more credit, because Miami is good in the period that you know, actually matters, this year.

The only thing where I'd say Wisconsin should get credit for BYU's recent history would be if they're compared to Washington with Rutgers as their best OOC.
11-09-2017 09:07 AM
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