(11-07-2017 11:30 PM)solohawks Wrote:  https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/92...2889061376

Another reliable election analyst

Some of this is about Trump but some of this is about changing demographics.

Bad night for GOP for sure but VA is a blue state that is getting bluer every cycle

Really? Demographics don't change that much in one year.

Hillary won VA last year by 5%, while Northam won the VA governorship by 9%.

As of last night, exit polls also back this up:

2016 VA exit poll: 67% white, 21% black, 6% Latino
2017 VA exit poll: 67% white, 21% black, 6% Latino

Sure, demographics may be changing in Virginia, but I think it's fairly safe to say a lot of the swing in VA elections last night has a direct correlation to Trump.

(11-08-2017 09:08 AM)H.U.S.T.L.E. Wrote:  

(11-07-2017 11:30 PM)solohawks Wrote:  https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/92...2889061376

Another reliable election analyst

Some of this is about Trump but some of this is about changing demographics.

Bad night for GOP for sure but VA is a blue state that is getting bluer every cycle

Really? Demographics don't change that much in one year.

Hillary won VA last year by 5%, while Northam won the VA governorship by 9%.

As of last night, exit polls also back this up:

2016 VA exit poll: 67% white, 21% black, 6% Latino
2017 VA exit poll: 67% white, 21% black, 6% Latino

Sure, demographics may be changing in Virginia, but I think it's fairly safe to say a lot of the swing in VA elections last night has a direct correlation to Trump.

Quoting a tweet that (I think) is attributable to Ben Shapiro:

Democrats - Hillary > Republicans + Trump

That equation may be limited to Virginia, but suspect it is national. Republicans had better wake up to it, because they won't have the wicked witch to point to in future elections.

(11-08-2017 09:05 AM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 07:10 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 07:01 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  In 2009, a Republican won the Virginia governor's race (pretty easily), mostly due to backlash against Obama.
In 2017, a Democrat won the race, mostly due to backlash against Trump.
In 2010, Republicans picked up 63 seats in the House.
In 2018, Democrats will pick up (X) seats in the House.
Those who choose to ignore history are condemned to repeat it.

Wouldn't it be nice to have a president the didn't inspire this kind of backlash? Someone who could earn respect from both sides of the aisle.

Haven't had one of those in a while.

Personally, I have no problem with it..

I don't want the 'in-power' party to sit on the laurels .. which the Republicans have been doing.

And that's just the exact opposite of the Democrats were just the opposite.. they went out and pushed legislation that was the exact opposite of what the majority of the people wanted. So they basically abused their power to the extreme.

If they need a wake-up call then so be it... just slap them across the face when they lose a few seats. It's called checks and balances, and the Republicans need to wake up to it.

I don't know what the GOP expected. They own the national government and the best they can is try to force through an ACA repeal which had less public approval than virtually anything, and push this tax plan which at best is "meh" to the majority of GOP voters. They've had years of obstructing Obama and complaining about his policies, speaking in hyperbole about how he's ruining America/the worst ever/etc, and yet they have nothing better to propose about the things that Americans care the most about.

Quote: try to force through an ACA repeal which had less public approval than virtually anything, and push this tax plan which at best is "meh" to the majority of GOP voters

No, they were voted in to get an Obamacare repeal (for the most part)... and they never did it.
The Tax plan.. so far, from what I saw was pretty much liked by voters.

So they've gotten 1 thing done (and it took nearly a YEAR to do that).

That's why I said they've been resting on their laurels. Basically if the lose seats, it'll be because of the Paul Ryans and Mitch McConnell's... and then GOP reps and senators are too happy to keep them in their leadership positions, unfortunately.

(11-08-2017 09:12 AM)UCF08 Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 09:05 AM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 07:10 AM)Owl 69/70/75 Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 07:01 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  In 2009, a Republican won the Virginia governor's race (pretty easily), mostly due to backlash against Obama.
In 2017, a Democrat won the race, mostly due to backlash against Trump.
In 2010, Republicans picked up 63 seats in the House.
In 2018, Democrats will pick up (X) seats in the House.
Those who choose to ignore history are condemned to repeat it.

Wouldn't it be nice to have a president the didn't inspire this kind of backlash? Someone who could earn respect from both sides of the aisle.

Haven't had one of those in a while.

Personally, I have no problem with it..

I don't want the 'in-power' party to sit on the laurels .. which the Republicans have been doing.

And that's just the exact opposite of the Democrats were just the opposite.. they went out and pushed legislation that was the exact opposite of what the majority of the people wanted. So they basically abused their power to the extreme.

If they need a wake-up call then so be it... just slap them across the face when they lose a few seats. It's called checks and balances, and the Republicans need to wake up to it.

I don't know what the GOP expected. They own the national government and the best they can is try to force through an ACA repeal which had less public approval than virtually anything, and push this tax plan which at best is "meh" to the majority of GOP voters. They've had years of obstructing Obama and complaining about his policies, speaking in hyperbole about how he's ruining America/the worst ever/etc, and yet they have nothing better to propose about the things that Americans care the most about.

Spot on.

(11-08-2017 09:14 AM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  

Quote: try to force through an ACA repeal which had less public approval than virtually anything, and push this tax plan which at best is "meh" to the majority of GOP voters

No, they were voted in to get an Obamacare repeal (for the most part)... and they never did it.
The Tax plan.. so far, from what I saw was pretty much liked by voters.

So they've gotten 1 thing done (and it took nearly a YEAR to do that).

That's why I said they've been resting on their laurels. Basically if the lose seats, it'll be because of the Paul Ryans and Mitch McConnell's... and then GOP reps and senators are too happy to keep them in their leadership positions, unfortunately.

Yes, Republicans are "meh." So there isn't much enthusiasm. They have failed on Obamacare repeal. Obamacare is hugely unpopular. Just that people don't have any consensus on what else to do. They haven't passed a budget. They are just now getting to taxes.

(11-08-2017 12:40 AM)nomad2u2001 Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 12:26 AM)gdunn Wrote:  

(11-07-2017 09:53 PM)nomad2u2001 Wrote:  

(11-07-2017 09:35 PM)gdunn Wrote:  

(11-07-2017 09:15 PM)cb4029 Wrote:  All trump does is blame other people. His supporters don't hold him accountable, so he gets away with it. The orange messiah.

Hey pot. My name is kettle.

It's nice to see people admit that they are the same.

I'm willing to admit we have people who'll spin the story just like all you folks did for Obama. I know what I'm about

I'm not sure I've said many positive things about Obama.

Nomad you may be correct. I did take a break from here for several months prior to the election and post sporadically here now.

Memory serves you were pretty level headed. You're not a bad guy for an ECU fan ha.

(11-08-2017 07:01 AM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  In 2009, a Republican won the Virginia governor's race (pretty easily), mostly due to backlash against Obama.

In 2017, a Democrat won the race, mostly due to backlash against Trump.

In 2010, Republicans picked up 63 seats in the House.

In 2018, Democrats will pick up (X) seats in the House.

Those who choose to ignore history are condemned to repeat it.

No news here. Off year elections are almost always a gain for the minority party. Perhaps on the order of 90% of the time or so.

One, just one of the myriad reasons the Rs would get their schit together and pass stuff for a signature while they can.

(11-08-2017 09:08 AM)H.U.S.T.L.E. Wrote:  

(11-07-2017 11:30 PM)solohawks Wrote:  https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/92...2889061376

Another reliable election analyst

Some of this is about Trump but some of this is about changing demographics.

Bad night for GOP for sure but VA is a blue state that is getting bluer every cycle

Really? Demographics don't change that much in one year.

Hillary won VA last year by 5%, while Northam won the VA governorship by 9%.

As of last night, exit polls also back this up:

2016 VA exit poll: 67% white, 21% black, 6% Latino
2017 VA exit poll: 67% white, 21% black, 6% Latino

Sure, demographics may be changing in Virginia, but I think it's fairly safe to say a lot of the swing in VA elections last night has a direct correlation to Trump.

Moreso a correlation to a desperately in need of a win dim party after being on the losing end for the last 5 years. And they held the seat, no net gain.

Even in losing Gillespie garnered more votes than did candidate Cucinelli in ‘13, and in some areas he outpaced Trump in 16.

He just ran into a wet, rabid, tooth-bare cornered mutt that knew it was either win this one battle or perhaps not win much else for another near decade.

This was anything but a “swing”.

(11-08-2017 09:14 AM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  

Quote: try to force through an ACA repeal which had less public approval than virtually anything, and push this tax plan which at best is "meh" to the majority of GOP voters

No, they were voted in to get an Obamacare repeal (for the most part)... and they never did it.
The Tax plan.. so far, from what I saw was pretty much liked by voters.

So they've gotten 1 thing done (and it took nearly a YEAR to do that).

That's why I said they've been resting on their laurels. Basically if the lose seats, it'll be because of the Paul Ryans and Mitch McConnell's... and then GOP reps and senators are too happy to keep them in their leadership positions, unfortunately.

I’d tug the reins a bit on the Paul Ryan at fault part in this.

Go check the amount of, and number of legislation and laws that are THROUGH the House and sitting in some dusty in box on McConnels spare file cabinet.

It’s rather stunning.

IIRCC something like over 300 pcs sent over,



8...... voted and passed to the Pres. (Top of my head, anyone please feel free to check if you feel the need).

(11-08-2017 09:14 AM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  

Quote: try to force through an ACA repeal which had less public approval than virtually anything, and push this tax plan which at best is "meh" to the majority of GOP voters

No, they were voted in to get an Obamacare repeal (for the most part)... and they never did it.
The Tax plan.. so far, from what I saw was pretty much liked by voters.

So they've gotten 1 thing done (and it took nearly a YEAR to do that).

That's why I said they've been resting on their laurels. Basically if the lose seats, it'll be because of the Paul Ryans and Mitch McConnell's... and then GOP reps and senators are too happy to keep them in their leadership positions, unfortunately.

No, they were voted in on a varying degrees of DIFFERENT THAN OBUMMRCARE proposals that went from the fringe view of complete removal and no replacement to Trumps position during the election in which he stated his plan was "insurance for everybody!" The position that the healthcare proposal ultimately stood at when it was brought up for a vote was amazingly unpopular, and was literally opposed by every major medical organization and hospital association.

The truth is that I think they have no realistic proposal, as every serious answer I've ever seen is either a complete reworking of the healthcare system a la a Bismarck system along the lines of Owls description or something like an expansion of Medicaid. I know the opinion around here is probably different, but the reality of this politically is a nightmare for the GOP.

(11-07-2017 11:20 PM)shere khan Wrote:  cnn

anti trump wave sweeps democrats to win in virginia

they are orgasmic

lol, yeah, I saw on MSNBC this morning "Voters Repudiate Trump Policies" and just laughed out loud. Do these idiots NOT know that 4 out of the last 5 VA governors have been Dems and that Hillary actually won VA? These idiots are so desperate for a win they can't think straight. What happened in VA is just continuing the status quo, not some voter revolt against Trump.

(11-08-2017 10:08 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 09:14 AM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  

Quote: try to force through an ACA repeal which had less public approval than virtually anything, and push this tax plan which at best is "meh" to the majority of GOP voters

No, they were voted in to get an Obamacare repeal (for the most part)... and they never did it.
The Tax plan.. so far, from what I saw was pretty much liked by voters.

So they've gotten 1 thing done (and it took nearly a YEAR to do that).

That's why I said they've been resting on their laurels. Basically if the lose seats, it'll be because of the Paul Ryans and Mitch McConnell's... and then GOP reps and senators are too happy to keep them in their leadership positions, unfortunately.

I’d tug the reins a bit on the Paul Ryan at fault part in this.

Go check the amount of, and number of legislation and laws that are THROUGH the House and sitting in some dusty in box on McConnels spare file cabinet.

It’s rather stunning.

IIRCC something like over 300 pcs sent over,



8...... voted and passed to the Pres. (Top of my head, anyone please feel free to check if you feel the need).

Yeah, McConnell is a much bigger part of the problem than Ryan. They should have replaced Turtle Boy when they had the chance.

(11-08-2017 10:01 AM)JMUDunk Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 09:08 AM)H.U.S.T.L.E. Wrote:  

(11-07-2017 11:30 PM)solohawks Wrote:  https://twitter.com/SeanTrende/status/92...2889061376

Another reliable election analyst

Some of this is about Trump but some of this is about changing demographics.

Bad night for GOP for sure but VA is a blue state that is getting bluer every cycle

Really? Demographics don't change that much in one year.

Hillary won VA last year by 5%, while Northam won the VA governorship by 9%.

As of last night, exit polls also back this up:

2016 VA exit poll: 67% white, 21% black, 6% Latino
2017 VA exit poll: 67% white, 21% black, 6% Latino

Sure, demographics may be changing in Virginia, but I think it's fairly safe to say a lot of the swing in VA elections last night has a direct correlation to Trump.

Moreso a correlation to a desperately in need of a win dim party after being on the losing end for the last 5 years. And they held the seat, no net gain.

Even in losing Gillespie garnered more votes than did candidate Cucinelli in ‘13, and in some areas he outpaced Trump in 16.

He just ran into a wet, rabid, tooth-bare cornered mutt that knew it was either win this one battle or perhaps not win much for another near decade.

Depending on how the recounts shake out, Democrats could walk out of this election with not only the Governor's mansion, but also the House (with a potential net of +17 towards the democrats). Since the Virginia Senate only has a 21-19 republican tilt and an election for all seats in 2019, these results set up the potential for Democrats to control the trifecta for the first time since 1993. I'd say that's a pretty significant net gain.

(11-08-2017 10:10 AM)UCF08 Wrote:  

(11-08-2017 09:14 AM)DaSaintFan Wrote:  

Quote: try to force through an ACA repeal which had less public approval than virtually anything, and push this tax plan which at best is "meh" to the majority of GOP voters

No, they were voted in to get an Obamacare repeal (for the most part)... and they never did it.
The Tax plan.. so far, from what I saw was pretty much liked by voters.

So they've gotten 1 thing done (and it took nearly a YEAR to do that).

That's why I said they've been resting on their laurels. Basically if the lose seats, it'll be because of the Paul Ryans and Mitch McConnell's... and then GOP reps and senators are too happy to keep them in their leadership positions, unfortunately.

No, they were voted in on a varying degrees of DIFFERENT THAN OBUMMRCARE proposals that went from the fringe view of complete removal and no replacement to Trumps position during the election in which he stated his plan was "insurance for everybody!" The position that the healthcare proposal ultimately stood at when it was brought up for a vote was amazingly unpopular, and was literally opposed by every major medical organization and hospital association.

The truth is that I think they have no realistic proposal, as every serious answer I've ever seen is either a complete reworking of the healthcare system a la a Bismarck system along the lines of Owls description or something like an expansion of Medicaid. I know the opinion around here is probably different, but the reality of this politically is a nightmare for the GOP.

Well of course it’s a nightmare. And was very cynically made so intentionally by the dim House, Senate and President.

That they didn’t,and still don’t, care one whit about the destruction of full time jobs, benefits from those jobs/employers, and annual premium rises of between 20-115%, that threaten to bankrupt honest, hard working, play by the rules folks, or have them choose the mortgage, insurance or no practical insurance in reality...

Their version of realpolitik was and still is more important to them.

Speaks volumes, really.

VA was pretty bad for the Republicans. They lost 15 House seats and picked up none. It was 66-34 and it is 48-49 with 3 still undecided, all Republican held seats.

Interesting that the parties conceded 40 of the 100 seats to each other, not even running a candidate: https://www.vpap.org/elections/house/

Looks like it will be 50/50 but with a Democratic Lt. Governor.

Lesson of the election is you gotta punch back. One guy came out of this looking like a racist homophobe. The other guy came out looking like an inclusive republican.
Devisivecrats won and will continue to win against an establishment Republicans.
The establishment Republicans will even readily concede the the majority of the electorate is Divisivecrats and only hope to get elected occasionally. If the left only wants to preach to America, the establishment Republicans only want to be Preachers.

(11-07-2017 08:10 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  New Jersey called for the Democrat Murphy. Not a surprise but New Jersey now has a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators. So you can once again move that state to all blue.

Technically Christie was a R, but...

(11-08-2017 11:23 AM)umbluegray Wrote:  

(11-07-2017 08:10 PM)Fort Bend Owl Wrote:  New Jersey called for the Democrat Murphy. Not a surprise but New Jersey now has a Democratic governor and two Democratic senators. So you can once again move that state to all blue.

Technically Christie was a R, but...

That’s the only kind of Republican that can win a statewide in NJ.