(11-05-2017 10:27 PM)sfink16 Wrote:  

(11-05-2017 07:54 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-05-2017 04:13 PM)sfink16 Wrote:  Take a look at the Massey poll below and review the last field to the right hand side, standard deviation. Compare the P5 versus the rest. Notice that the G5 are often considerably higher than the P5. There is a reason for that and clearly display in poll bias. Standard deviation proves how wild these polls are, with no rhyme or reason for the rankings, often much larger for G5 schools.

How else could you explain how Memphis, for example, has a high of 8 in one poll and a low of 52 in another, while the team listed below them, Stanford, has a high of 16 and a low of 34? BTW, that same poll that has Memphis at 52 has PSU #1 and VT #6. Explain that one. Look at Navy where one poll has them at 13 and another has them at 82. I'm not calling Navy the 13th best team in the country but how can they be 82nd? Than again, one poll has UCF #1 and the same poll has Alabama at #6, so maybe that poll is legit, LOL!

Can the polls that Massey uses really be taken seriously?

https://www.masseyratings.com/cf/compare.htm

The beauty of the Massey poll is that it aggregates a lot of polls, so there's a chance that regression to the mean will produce an overall results that disposes of crazy outliers. Usually, it seems to work that way, although UCF at #9 seems way too generous to them.

While theoretically that makes sense, it doesn't explain why the G5 seems to have much more crazy outliers than the P5, hence typically much larger standard deviations than the P5.

In the top 25 only 2 teams have higher standard deviations than UCF, one is Michigan State while the other is, you guessed it Memphis, who has the highest, by far, of those in the top 25.

That's interesting, but I'm not sure what to make of it, including that the Massey does a poor job of ranking the G5. Heck, Massey has UCF #8, Memphis #22, USF #30. And while I prefer our AP and Coaches rankings, i can understand that, given our really bad SOS.

sagarin seems to be the computer ranking with the least respect for UCF. UCF is 8th in Massey's composite and 5th in S&P +/-.... they are still really undervalued in the polls, despite the schedule.

(11-06-2017 10:26 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  sagarin seems to be the computer ranking with the least respect for UCF. UCF is 8th in Massey's composite and 5th in S&P +/-.... they are still really undervalued in the polls, despite the schedule.

How is UCF undervalued in the polls? UCF has beaten one pretty good team, Memphis. Memphis themselves haven't beaten any good teams. So there's not much linking UCF to wins over good teams this year.

(11-06-2017 10:26 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  sagarin seems to be the computer ranking with the least respect for UCF. UCF is 8th in Massey's composite and 5th in S&P +/-.... they are still really undervalued in the polls, despite the schedule.

How is UCF undervalued in the polls? UCF has beaten one pretty good team, Memphis. Memphis themselves haven't beaten any good teams. So there's not much linking UCF to wins over good teams this year.

Who cares?

AAC champ has the NY6 bowl on lock.

I doubt the committee will ever let an AAC champion into the playoff.

All we can do is hope P6 campaign really changes national opinion. Maybe expansion will change the landscape again. But right now, UCF and ranked AAC teams need to set their goals on NY6 bowl.

(11-06-2017 11:14 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  Who cares?

AAC champ has the NY6 bowl on lock.

I doubt the committee will ever let an AAC champion into the playoff.

All we can do is hope P6 campaign really changes national opinion. Maybe expansion will change the landscape again. But right now, UCF and ranked AAC teams need to set their goals on NY6 bowl.

NY6 Bowl is the ceiling for the AAC in the current system and the MAC and MWC have beaten the AAC out for that bowl already too. The current system is rigged where 1-3 lose P5 schools get ranked higher then G5 schools. Not right but it is reality.

What do you consider a good team? Top 25? Top 40? Top 60? top 75?

(11-06-2017 10:29 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 10:26 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  sagarin seems to be the computer ranking with the least respect for UCF. UCF is 8th in Massey's composite and 5th in S&P +/-.... they are still really undervalued in the polls, despite the schedule.

How is UCF undervalued in the polls? UCF has beaten one pretty good team, Memphis. Memphis themselves haven't beaten any good teams. So there's not much linking UCF to wins over good teams this year.

Houston isn't a good team? Navy isn't a good team?

(11-06-2017 12:20 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 10:29 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 10:26 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  sagarin seems to be the computer ranking with the least respect for UCF. UCF is 8th in Massey's composite and 5th in S&P +/-.... they are still really undervalued in the polls, despite the schedule.

How is UCF undervalued in the polls? UCF has beaten one pretty good team, Memphis. Memphis themselves haven't beaten any good teams. So there's not much linking UCF to wins over good teams this year.

Houston isn't a good team? Navy isn't a good team?

No houston is definitely not a good team this year. Navy is also not good this year.


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(11-06-2017 11:14 AM)ArmoredUpKnight Wrote:  Who cares?

AAC champ has the NY6 bowl on lock.

I doubt the committee will ever let an AAC champion into the playoff.

All we can do is hope P6 campaign really changes national opinion. Maybe expansion will change the landscape again. But right now, UCF and ranked AAC teams need to set their goals on NY6 bowl.

You set your goals higher. You set your goal as the playoff. You set your goal as the NC. That's how you get to the NY6. You may never get to your goal, but you set it high in order to become the best you can be.

(11-06-2017 12:21 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 12:20 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 10:29 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 10:26 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  sagarin seems to be the computer ranking with the least respect for UCF. UCF is 8th in Massey's composite and 5th in S&P +/-.... they are still really undervalued in the polls, despite the schedule.

How is UCF undervalued in the polls? UCF has beaten one pretty good team, Memphis. Memphis themselves haven't beaten any good teams. So there's not much linking UCF to wins over good teams this year.

Houston isn't a good team? Navy isn't a good team?

No houston is definitely not a good team this year. Navy is also not good this year.

No team any AAC team beats can be seen as a "good team". So that's a self-fulfilling prophecy. I am actually shocked Memphis is still ranked after being beaten by an AAC team. The only saving grace for Memphis is that UCF is still undefeated.

(11-06-2017 12:26 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 12:21 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 12:20 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 10:29 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 10:26 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  sagarin seems to be the computer ranking with the least respect for UCF. UCF is 8th in Massey's composite and 5th in S&P +/-.... they are still really undervalued in the polls, despite the schedule.

How is UCF undervalued in the polls? UCF has beaten one pretty good team, Memphis. Memphis themselves haven't beaten any good teams. So there's not much linking UCF to wins over good teams this year.

Houston isn't a good team? Navy isn't a good team?

No houston is definitely not a good team this year. Navy is also not good this year.

No team any AAC team beats can be seen as a "good team". So that's a self-fulfilling prophecy. I am actually shocked Memphis is still ranked after being beaten by an AAC team. The only saving grace for Memphis is that UCF is still undefeated.

Until they play USF.

We're done with week 10. Eye test matters. Massey has 5-4 Boston College in the top 25. Nope.

Massey has Texas at #29 and ahead of Washington State. Texas is 4-5. Washington State is 8-2. They played a common opponent, USC. Texas lost. WSU won. Nope.

Massey has 3-5 Florida State at #32. Ha.

There are 10+ teams with losing records in Massey's top 50. Nope.

(11-06-2017 12:20 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 10:29 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 10:26 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  sagarin seems to be the computer ranking with the least respect for UCF. UCF is 8th in Massey's composite and 5th in S&P +/-.... they are still really undervalued in the polls, despite the schedule.

How is UCF undervalued in the polls? UCF has beaten one pretty good team, Memphis. Memphis themselves haven't beaten any good teams. So there's not much linking UCF to wins over good teams this year.

Houston isn't a good team? Navy isn't a good team?

Nobody at any P5 is going to be impressed by wins over Houston and Navy. That's just reality, and that's who we are competing with for ranking position.

Add it all up, and UCF's strength of schedule is 92 according to Sagarin. That's pretty darn low.

(11-06-2017 12:26 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 12:21 PM)Westhoff123 Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 12:20 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 10:29 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 10:26 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  sagarin seems to be the computer ranking with the least respect for UCF. UCF is 8th in Massey's composite and 5th in S&P +/-.... they are still really undervalued in the polls, despite the schedule.

How is UCF undervalued in the polls? UCF has beaten one pretty good team, Memphis. Memphis themselves haven't beaten any good teams. So there's not much linking UCF to wins over good teams this year.

Houston isn't a good team? Navy isn't a good team?

No houston is definitely not a good team this year. Navy is also not good this year.

No team any AAC team beats can be seen as a "good team". So that's a self-fulfilling prophecy. I am actually shocked Memphis is still ranked after being beaten by an AAC team. The only saving grace for Memphis is that UCF is still undefeated.

Disagree. When Houston beat Oklahoma last year, that was recognized by everyone as a very high-quality win, and they were ranked in the top 10 as a result.

Had the chips fallen a certain way, namely if Houston had gone unbeaten and had Louisville been as good as expected, Houston *could* have made the playoffs.

But we have to schedule tough OOC games vs P5, like Houston did. UCF? Their one P5 win this year is versus Maryland, a 4-5 team that is unlikely to make a bowl game.

(11-06-2017 01:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 12:20 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 10:29 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 10:26 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  sagarin seems to be the computer ranking with the least respect for UCF. UCF is 8th in Massey's composite and 5th in S&P +/-.... they are still really undervalued in the polls, despite the schedule.

How is UCF undervalued in the polls? UCF has beaten one pretty good team, Memphis. Memphis themselves haven't beaten any good teams. So there's not much linking UCF to wins over good teams this year.

Houston isn't a good team? Navy isn't a good team?

Nobody at any P5 is going to be impressed by wins over Houston and Navy. That's just reality, and that's who we are competing with for ranking position.

Add it all up, and UCF's strength of schedule is 92 according to Sagarin. That's pretty darn low.

Should anyone be impressed by Alabama's win over overrated LSU? After all, Alabama scored the exact same number of point against LSU as Troy did, 24 points. Both beat that weakling LSU. See how transference doesn't always equate to reality? What makes LSU, Alabama's top win so far this year, any better than UCF beating Houston or Memphis?

(11-05-2017 02:55 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  They are actually showing FOUR 2-loss teams ahead of UCF with zero losses.
What a load of crap.

That is BS. If UCF runs the table they should be considered for the playoff. No doubt.

They need to make the playoff 8 teams and the best non power conference champ gets an auto bid.

They penalize teams from our league for not playing a tough enough schedule. The system is set up to do that every year. Only the so-called power teams get credit for conference wins.

You can only play who's on your schedule. If you win them all you should have a shot at the title

(11-06-2017 01:27 PM)sfink16 Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 01:09 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 12:20 PM)geosnooker2000 Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 10:29 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 10:26 AM)bearcatmark Wrote:  sagarin seems to be the computer ranking with the least respect for UCF. UCF is 8th in Massey's composite and 5th in S&P +/-.... they are still really undervalued in the polls, despite the schedule.

How is UCF undervalued in the polls? UCF has beaten one pretty good team, Memphis. Memphis themselves haven't beaten any good teams. So there's not much linking UCF to wins over good teams this year.

Houston isn't a good team? Navy isn't a good team?

Nobody at any P5 is going to be impressed by wins over Houston and Navy. That's just reality, and that's who we are competing with for ranking position.

Add it all up, and UCF's strength of schedule is 92 according to Sagarin. That's pretty darn low.

Should anyone be impressed by Alabama's win over overrated LSU? After all, Alabama scored the exact same number of point against LSU as Troy did, 24 points. Both beat that weakling LSU. See how transference doesn't always equate to reality? What makes LSU, Alabama's top win so far this year, any better than UCF beating Houston or Memphis?

Who is saying Alabama beating LSU is better than UCF beating Memphis? Memphis is ranked higher than LSU by everybody.

As for reality, analogies have to make sense. Nobody seriously doubts that Alabama is one of the 5-6 best teams in the country. They don't need to have great wins because they have a pedigree built up over time, such as making the national title game the last two years.

For a school like UCF that has no such track record, then yes, the standards of evidence are going to be stricter.

(11-06-2017 01:39 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 01:27 PM)sfink16 Wrote:  Should anyone be impressed by Alabama's win over overrated LSU? After all, Alabama scored the exact same number of point against LSU as Troy did, 24 points. Both beat that weakling LSU. See how transference doesn't always equate to reality? What makes LSU, Alabama's top win so far this year, any better than UCF beating Houston or Memphis?

Who is saying Alabama beating LSU is better than UCF beating Memphis? Memphis is ranked higher than LSU by everybody.

As for reality, analogies have to make sense. Nobody seriously doubts that Alabama is one of the 5-6 best teams in the country. They don't need to have great wins because they have a pedigree built up over time, such as making the national title game the last two years.

For a school like UCF that has no such track record, then yes, the standards of evidence are going to be stricter.

Yes, and so did FSU until they finally didn't this year, when it took 5 losses before they stopped receiving votes. I understand your point, but just don't agree with it. The games should be won or loss on the field, not by past track records.

Every year is different and should be treated that way.

(11-06-2017 01:43 PM)sfink16 Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 01:39 PM)quo vadis Wrote:  

(11-06-2017 01:27 PM)sfink16 Wrote:  Should anyone be impressed by Alabama's win over overrated LSU? After all, Alabama scored the exact same number of point against LSU as Troy did, 24 points. Both beat that weakling LSU. See how transference doesn't always equate to reality? What makes LSU, Alabama's top win so far this year, any better than UCF beating Houston or Memphis?

Who is saying Alabama beating LSU is better than UCF beating Memphis? Memphis is ranked higher than LSU by everybody.

As for reality, analogies have to make sense. Nobody seriously doubts that Alabama is one of the 5-6 best teams in the country. They don't need to have great wins because they have a pedigree built up over time, such as making the national title game the last two years.

For a school like UCF that has no such track record, then yes, the standards of evidence are going to be stricter.

Yes, and so did FSU until they finally didn't this year, when it took 5 losses before they stopped receiving votes. I understand your point, but just don't agree with it. The games should be won or loss on the field, not by past track records.

Every year is different and should be treated that way.

I agree with you, but voting is a guessing game to a large extent, so they factor in pedigree. It's wrong, yes, but it also does make sense at a certain level. E.g., does anyone think Alabama isn't one of the best teams? I don't think you believe that.

FWIW, i think FSU is a bad example, because they lost their star QB in the first game. It's like if the NE Patriots were ranked #1 in an NFL poll at the start of the season, but are 2-6 now, but they lost Tom Brady to a season-ending injury in game 1. It would be silly to say "see, the Patriots are 2-6, they were way over-rated going in to the season, that's what you get for relying on their past seasons!", when that pre-season rating was based on them having Brady, who they no longer have, and whose absence is the obvious reason for the 2-6 record.