(11-01-2017 04:54 PM)vandiver49 Wrote:  

(11-01-2017 04:23 PM)BePcr07 Wrote:  I am curious to see what happens if Notre Dame wins out and finishes with 1 loss. Sure they are in now, but everyone has essentially played the same amount of games. What will the committee do if faced with 1-loss Notre Dame, 1-loss Clemson, 1-loss Oklahoma, and 1-loss Washington who all win a 13th game which is CCG. What about 1-loss Notre Dame vs. 1-loss Georgia (only loss to Alabama in CCG.) Could 1-loss Notre Dame be out? If so, could that worry the Irish about independence?

We all saw in the first year of the CFP that 1-loss TCU (XII co-champion) was left out after being ranked #3 the poll before.

As stever20 stated, UW is out because of schedule. If ND wins out, then the lack of a CCG won't be held against them. Thus two slots are already locked up:

1. SEC Champ
2. ND

Leaving three teams vying for the last two openings, Clemson, OU, B1G Champ. Regardless of SOS, I don't think you could deny Wisky if they win out. Clemson gets the last spot because their loss occurred with the starting QB on the sidelines.

I don't think ND wins out. What happens in that case?

My projection
1. Alabama
2. Georgia
3. Notre Dame
4. Clemson
5. Miami
6. Oklahoma
7. TCU
8. Wisconsin
9. Washington
10. Auburn

Clemson needs help from Auburn and Miami. If Auburn can beat either UGa or Bama, that will boost Clemson SoS.

I think OU still controls its own destiny... IF Bama loses. I don't think the Bama OOC will be good enough if they lose to UGa. Unless Bama gets robbed by a bad call, I think they will fall to 5.

OU is as big a brand as Bama and people are tired of Bama in there every year. Mayfield also a star player the committee can showcase to justify slipping in them there.

UGa is a lock at 12-0.

If this was still the BCS, we would have had the SEC vs ACC the past 5 years or so.

I'm sorry, but if the SEC championship is close, you have to put them both in.....and I'll even go out on a limb and say a one loss SEC runner-up should get in over an undefeated wisconsin.

In addition to the obvious, Ohio State and Penn State losing, some other teams near the top showed some flaws. Georgia was underwhelming in beating South Carolina, Notre Dame gave up a lot of points in beating Wake Forest, Oklahoma gave up a huge pile of points in beating OK State, and Clemson wasn't exactly dominant against NC State. Even Alabama was actually out-gained vs LSU, though points-wise it was never in doubt.

Of those, Notre Dame's performance was arguably the worst, as Clemson and OK were playing ranked opponents, both on the road.

Also, what your opponents do matters, as that affects your SOS and your best wins and worst losses.

E.g., let's focus on Notre Dame: Notre Dame saw NC State lose, which hurts one of their good wins, and Stanford and Navy, upcoming opponents, lost as well, which hurts their remaining SOS, critical for them since they don't have a CCG at the end to impress the committee.

On the other hand, two of their good wins did very well - USC beat #22 Arizona, and Michigan State upset #7 Penn State.

Finally, Georgia winning retained their status as having the "best loss" among the teams with a loss. But, Georgia continuing to win is a double-edge sword for Notre Dame. On one hand, it allows them to keep that "best loss" title, but if Georgia eventually loses just one game, the SEC title game, a playoff spot could come down to ND vs Georgia, and since Georgia has H2H over the Irish, that would leave ND wishing Georgia had lost another game along the way as well.

All of these things matter.

But as a result, I could see Alabama moving past Georgia to #1 (they beat a ranked team) and I could see Notre Dame slipping a notch to #4.

So my prediction:

1) Alabama
2) Georgia
3) Clemson
4) Notre Dame

(11-05-2017 08:51 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  In addition to the obvious, Ohio State and Penn State losing, some other teams near the top showed some flaws. Georgia was underwhelming in beating South Carolina, Notre Dame gave up a lot of points in beating Wake Forest, Oklahoma gave up a huge pile of points in beating OK State, and Clemson wasn't exactly dominant against NC State. Even Alabama was actually out-gained vs LSU, though points-wise it was never in doubt.

Of those, Notre Dame's performance was arguably the worst, as Clemson and OK were playing ranked opponents, both on the road.

Also, what your opponents do matters, as that affects your SOS and your best wins and worst losses.

E.g., let's focus on Notre Dame: Notre Dame saw NC State lose, which hurts one of their good wins, and Stanford and Navy, upcoming opponents, lost as well, which hurts their remaining SOS, critical for them since they don't have a CCG at the end to impress the committee.

On the other hand, two of their good wins did very well - USC beat #22 Arizona, and Michigan State upset #7 Penn State.

Finally, Georgia winning retained their status as having the "best loss" among the teams with a loss. But, Georgia continuing to win is a double-edge sword for Notre Dame. On one hand, it allows them to keep that "best loss" title, but if Georgia eventually loses just one game, the SEC title game, a playoff spot could come down to ND vs Georgia, and since Georgia has H2H over the Irish, that would leave ND wishing Georgia had lost another game along the way as well.

All of these things matter.

But as a result, I could see Alabama moving past Georgia to #1 (they beat a ranked team) and I could see Notre Dame slipping a notch to #4.

So my prediction:

1) Alabama
2) Georgia
3) Clemson
4) Notre Dame

Notre Dame gave up a lot of points in garbage time.

don't see Clemson passing Notre Dame as ND beat NC State way worse than Clemson did. And that matters....

Bottom line- Notre Dame absolutely 100% controls their own destiny. If they finish 11-1, they will be in the playoffs, no matter what.

(11-05-2017 08:48 AM)otown Wrote:  I'm sorry, but if the SEC championship is close, you have to put them both in.....and I'll even go out on a limb and say a one loss SEC runner-up should get in over an undefeated wisconsin.

Yes they should.

(10-31-2017 08:28 PM)JRsec Wrote:  

(10-31-2017 07:58 PM)RutgersGuy Wrote:  My prediction of final four in order:

Alabama
Notre Dame
Miami
Ohio State

Notre Dame and Miami play. 2 teams enter, 1 team leaves.

Oh state eliminated as well...

(11-05-2017 09:01 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-05-2017 08:51 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  In addition to the obvious, Ohio State and Penn State losing, some other teams near the top showed some flaws. Georgia was underwhelming in beating South Carolina, Notre Dame gave up a lot of points in beating Wake Forest, Oklahoma gave up a huge pile of points in beating OK State, and Clemson wasn't exactly dominant against NC State. Even Alabama was actually out-gained vs LSU, though points-wise it was never in doubt.

Of those, Notre Dame's performance was arguably the worst, as Clemson and OK were playing ranked opponents, both on the road.

Also, what your opponents do matters, as that affects your SOS and your best wins and worst losses.

E.g., let's focus on Notre Dame: Notre Dame saw NC State lose, which hurts one of their good wins, and Stanford and Navy, upcoming opponents, lost as well, which hurts their remaining SOS, critical for them since they don't have a CCG at the end to impress the committee.

On the other hand, two of their good wins did very well - USC beat #22 Arizona, and Michigan State upset #7 Penn State.

Finally, Georgia winning retained their status as having the "best loss" among the teams with a loss. But, Georgia continuing to win is a double-edge sword for Notre Dame. On one hand, it allows them to keep that "best loss" title, but if Georgia eventually loses just one game, the SEC title game, a playoff spot could come down to ND vs Georgia, and since Georgia has H2H over the Irish, that would leave ND wishing Georgia had lost another game along the way as well.

All of these things matter.

But as a result, I could see Alabama moving past Georgia to #1 (they beat a ranked team) and I could see Notre Dame slipping a notch to #4.

So my prediction:

1) Alabama
2) Georgia
3) Clemson
4) Notre Dame

Notre Dame gave up a lot of points in garbage time.

don't see Clemson passing Notre Dame as ND beat NC State way worse than Clemson did. And that matters....

Bottom line- Notre Dame absolutely 100% controls their own destiny. If they finish 11-1, they will be in the playoffs, no matter what.

ND did give up a lot of points in garbage time, but you can't be sure everyone knows that. You know ND led that game 48-23 in the fourth, but the committee voters might just look at the final score.

In the same way, Oklahoma might benefit from that last purely garbage TD in the last minute that stretched their MOV over OK State from a squeaky 3 points to a more respectable 10 points.

Finally, IMO the only teams that are locks if they win out are Alabama and Georgia, and they both can't win out. Too many variables still in play for everyone else.

(11-05-2017 09:01 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-05-2017 08:51 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  In addition to the obvious, Ohio State and Penn State losing, some other teams near the top showed some flaws. Georgia was underwhelming in beating South Carolina, Notre Dame gave up a lot of points in beating Wake Forest, Oklahoma gave up a huge pile of points in beating OK State, and Clemson wasn't exactly dominant against NC State. Even Alabama was actually out-gained vs LSU, though points-wise it was never in doubt.

Of those, Notre Dame's performance was arguably the worst, as Clemson and OK were playing ranked opponents, both on the road.

Also, what your opponents do matters, as that affects your SOS and your best wins and worst losses.

E.g., let's focus on Notre Dame: Notre Dame saw NC State lose, which hurts one of their good wins, and Stanford and Navy, upcoming opponents, lost as well, which hurts their remaining SOS, critical for them since they don't have a CCG at the end to impress the committee.

On the other hand, two of their good wins did very well - USC beat #22 Arizona, and Michigan State upset #7 Penn State.

Finally, Georgia winning retained their status as having the "best loss" among the teams with a loss. But, Georgia continuing to win is a double-edge sword for Notre Dame. On one hand, it allows them to keep that "best loss" title, but if Georgia eventually loses just one game, the SEC title game, a playoff spot could come down to ND vs Georgia, and since Georgia has H2H over the Irish, that would leave ND wishing Georgia had lost another game along the way as well.

All of these things matter.

But as a result, I could see Alabama moving past Georgia to #1 (they beat a ranked team) and I could see Notre Dame slipping a notch to #4.

So my prediction:

1) Alabama
2) Georgia
3) Clemson
4) Notre Dame

Notre Dame gave up a lot of points in garbage time.

don't see Clemson passing Notre Dame as ND beat NC State way worse than Clemson did. And that matters....

Bottom line- Notre Dame absolutely 100% controls their own destiny. If they finish 11-1, they will be in the playoffs, no matter what.

ND gained 710 yards in that game with Josh Adams not playing most of the game.

It was 31-10, ND, at halftime.

Wake scored 27 points in the second half.

If this was the "letdown" or "trap" game after Southern Cal and NC State and before Miami, then I will take 710 yards and 48 points with injuries to Adams and Wimbush (for a while).

(11-05-2017 08:48 AM)otown Wrote:  I'm sorry, but if the SEC championship is close, you have to put them both in.....and I'll even go out on a limb and say a one loss SEC runner-up should get in over an undefeated wisconsin.

I could see:

1. UGa/Bama 13-0
2. ND 12-1
3. UGa/Bama 12-1
4. Wisconsin 13-0

This will remove the Clemson and OU debate at 12-1 even if they are both CCs. It's fun because if you are a fan of those schools, you have to watch the Badgers like a hawk till year end.

(11-05-2017 01:11 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(11-05-2017 08:48 AM)otown Wrote:  I'm sorry, but if the SEC championship is close, you have to put them both in.....and I'll even go out on a limb and say a one loss SEC runner-up should get in over an undefeated wisconsin.

I could see:

1. UGa/Bama 13-0
2. ND 12-1
3. UGa/Bama 12-1
4. Wisconsin 13-0

This will remove the Clemson and OU debate at 12-1 even if they are both CCs. It's fun because if you are a fan of those schools, you have to watch the Badgers like a hawk till year end.

I think the Georgia/ Alabama loser at 12-1 would have a chance but not if there are 12-1 or better champions with 3 or so solid top 25 wins. They would make it over flawed champs, not ones with solid resumes and the Conference championship boost. I think Clemson and OU both would have solid resumes with multiple top 25 wins.

Thing is Bama's win against FSU week 1 is actually a very good OOC win because FSU was still a decent team at that point. Auburn will also drop two more games if it shakes out that way, so Clemson OOC is pretty bad.

OU has a case, but the committee will punish a bad defense statistically. I'd potentially take them over Bama if they can create some separation between them and TCU and again in the Big 12 CC.

(11-05-2017 01:47 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  Thing is Bama's win against FSU week 1 is actually a very good OOC win because FSU was still a decent team at that point. Auburn will also drop two more games if it shakes out that way, so Clemson OOC is pretty bad.

OU has a case, but the committee will punish a bad defense statistically. I'd potentially take them over Bama if they can create some separation between them and TCU and again in the Big 12 CC.

FSU is 3-5. If they lose to Clemson next week, they might finish last in their division.

Auburn upsets Georgia this week.
Miami over Notre Dame.

That's the big shakeup coming.

Clemson wi s out they are in, have best SOS.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

(11-05-2017 01:11 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(11-05-2017 08:48 AM)otown Wrote:  I'm sorry, but if the SEC championship is close, you have to put them both in.....and I'll even go out on a limb and say a one loss SEC runner-up should get in over an undefeated wisconsin.

I could see:

1. UGa/Bama 13-0
2. ND 12-1
3. UGa/Bama 12-1
4. Wisconsin 13-0

This will remove the Clemson and OU debate at 12-1 even if they are both CCs. It's fun because if you are a fan of those schools, you have to watch the Badgers like a hawk till year end.

I could see it with a 1% chance. BIG would love it though.

(11-05-2017 01:11 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(11-05-2017 08:48 AM)otown Wrote:  I'm sorry, but if the SEC championship is close, you have to put them both in.....and I'll even go out on a limb and say a one loss SEC runner-up should get in over an undefeated wisconsin.

I could see:

1. UGa/Bama 13-0
2. ND 12-1
3. UGa/Bama 12-1
4. Wisconsin 13-0

This will remove the Clemson and OU debate at 12-1 even if they are both CCs. It's fun because if you are a fan of those schools, you have to watch the Badgers like a hawk till year end.

While this is possible, what is the impact, positive or negative, of excluding 3 of the Power 5 conferences from the championship round? I have a feeling that regardless of who everyone thinks the top four are, ND's inclusion would prevent two SEC schools from participating. So, assuming the best team from the other 4 conferences are at under 2 losses and the UGa/Bama loser has one loss, I suspect there will be UGa/Bama, 2 from ACC/BIG/Big XII/Pac and either ND or UGa/Bama loser.

(11-07-2017 11:08 AM)MUAvalanche Wrote:  

(11-05-2017 01:11 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(11-05-2017 08:48 AM)otown Wrote:  I'm sorry, but if the SEC championship is close, you have to put them both in.....and I'll even go out on a limb and say a one loss SEC runner-up should get in over an undefeated wisconsin.

I could see:

1. UGa/Bama 13-0
2. ND 12-1
3. UGa/Bama 12-1
4. Wisconsin 13-0

This will remove the Clemson and OU debate at 12-1 even if they are both CCs. It's fun because if you are a fan of those schools, you have to watch the Badgers like a hawk till year end.

While this is possible, what is the impact, positive or negative, of excluding 3 of the Power 5 conferences from the championship round? I have a feeling that regardless of who everyone thinks the top four are, ND's inclusion would prevent two SEC schools from participating. So, assuming the best team from the other 4 conferences are at under 2 losses and the UGa/Bama loser has one loss, I suspect there will be UGa/Bama, 2 from ACC/BIG/Big XII/Pac and either ND or UGa/Bama loser.

But that's a huge assumption there. I mean, the committee spews so much about SOS. To not have ND or GA in- but have a 1 loss Wisconsin would be just a total and utter joke. Washington doesn't have much at all this year either.

Also right now-
Washington- 38.9% chance to win out(finishing with 1 loss)
Oklahoma- 33.5% chance to win out(finishing with 1 loss)
TCU- 12.7% chance to win out(finishing with 1 loss)
Wisconsin- 22.8% chance to win out(finishing undefeated, only chance they have)
even Clemson only has a 48.7% chance to win out and finish with 1 loss.

It's very possible, if not likely that end of the year we have
13-0 Alabama
12-1 Georgia
11-1 Notre Dame
12-1 Clemson
11-2 Oklahoma
11-2 Ohio St
11-2 Washington(or 10-3 USC)

(11-07-2017 11:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  

(11-07-2017 11:08 AM)MUAvalanche Wrote:  

(11-05-2017 01:11 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  

(11-05-2017 08:48 AM)otown Wrote:  I'm sorry, but if the SEC championship is close, you have to put them both in.....and I'll even go out on a limb and say a one loss SEC runner-up should get in over an undefeated wisconsin.

I could see:

1. UGa/Bama 13-0
2. ND 12-1
3. UGa/Bama 12-1
4. Wisconsin 13-0

This will remove the Clemson and OU debate at 12-1 even if they are both CCs. It's fun because if you are a fan of those schools, you have to watch the Badgers like a hawk till year end.

While this is possible, what is the impact, positive or negative, of excluding 3 of the Power 5 conferences from the championship round? I have a feeling that regardless of who everyone thinks the top four are, ND's inclusion would prevent two SEC schools from participating. So, assuming the best team from the other 4 conferences are at under 2 losses and the UGa/Bama loser has one loss, I suspect there will be UGa/Bama, 2 from ACC/BIG/Big XII/Pac and either ND or UGa/Bama loser.

But that's a huge assumption there. I mean, the committee spews so much about SOS. To not have ND or GA in- but have a 1 loss Wisconsin would be just a total and utter joke. Washington doesn't have much at all this year either.

Also right now-
Washington- 38.9% chance to win out(finishing with 1 loss)
Oklahoma- 33.5% chance to win out(finishing with 1 loss)
TCU- 12.7% chance to win out(finishing with 1 loss)
Wisconsin- 22.8% chance to win out(finishing undefeated, only chance they have)
even Clemson only has a 48.7% chance to win out and finish with 1 loss.

It's very possible, if not likely that end of the year we have
13-0 Alabama
12-1 Georgia
11-1 Notre Dame
12-1 Clemson
11-2 Oklahoma
11-2 Ohio St
11-2 Washington(or 10-3 USC)

Definitely possible but I wouldn't say likely. Whatever ends up happening is exceedingly unlikely looking at it prospectively from this point. Multiplying out ESPN FPI win out probabilities (or football study hall probabilities if a team is projected to lose) for that exact outcome is around .35 x .39 x. 25 X .49 x .24 x .45 X .23 = .0004 or about 1 in 2000.