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stever20 Online
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Post: #41
RE: CFP reveal-
(11-01-2017 08:25 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-01-2017 08:17 AM)stever20 Wrote:  what's going to be interesting would be if Wisconsin drops a game and then beats Ohio St in the title game. I think there's a very real possibliity there that Wisconsin is left out in that case.

Depends on who they lose too. If they drop the game to Michigan who they runs the table, it's not necessarily a dagger, especially if Michigan beats tOSU.

If they pull a boner and lose to Minnesota or Iowa, they're history.

The only hope would be that several of the teams ranked above them were to drop the second game.

I don't think it would matter... Sure they would be 12-1- say losing to Michigan. but they would have to worry with-
Alabama/Georgia winner
Notre Dame
Clemson/Miami(even if Miami lost to ND)
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St/TCU(1 loss champion)
and frankly Penn St(who destroyed Michigan) and the Alabama/Georgia loser

The one thing Wisconsin needs to be rooting for right now is the team they helped a lot earlier this year. That's right, Lane Kiffin and Florida Atlantic. If they finish 10-3, that would help Wisconsin out a lot. That could be a ranked win by the end of the year.
11-01-2017 08:31 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #42
RE: CFP reveal-
and actually if Michigan beats Ohio St in your scenario that would HURT Wisconsin as in the Big Ten title game they would see a 2 loss Ohio St team. And Wisconsin would desperately need a 1 loss team opposing them to probably really have any chance at all.
11-01-2017 08:36 AM
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BadgerMJ Offline
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Post: #43
RE: CFP reveal-
(11-01-2017 08:36 AM)stever20 Wrote:  and actually if Michigan beats Ohio St in your scenario that would HURT Wisconsin as in the Big Ten title game they would see a 2 loss Ohio St team. And Wisconsin would desperately need a 1 loss team opposing them to probably really have any chance at all.

That scenario assumes PSU would lose another game.

If Michigan beats tOSU and Wisconsin, the B1G championship game would be PSU v. Wisconsin.

Wisconsin wins and they'd be the only one of the bunch with only 1 loss.

Under that situation, they'd have a quality loss and a quality win.

And you're right, Wisconsin is rooting for FAU for sure.
11-01-2017 08:49 AM
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The Cutter of Bish Offline
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Post: #44
RE: CFP reveal-
(11-01-2017 08:31 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-01-2017 08:25 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-01-2017 08:17 AM)stever20 Wrote:  what's going to be interesting would be if Wisconsin drops a game and then beats Ohio St in the title game. I think there's a very real possibliity there that Wisconsin is left out in that case.

Depends on who they lose too. If they drop the game to Michigan who they runs the table, it's not necessarily a dagger, especially if Michigan beats tOSU.

If they pull a boner and lose to Minnesota or Iowa, they're history.

The only hope would be that several of the teams ranked above them were to drop the second game.

I don't think it would matter... Sure they would be 12-1- say losing to Michigan. but they would have to worry with-
Alabama/Georgia winner
Notre Dame
Clemson/Miami(even if Miami lost to ND)
Oklahoma/Oklahoma St/TCU(1 loss champion)
and frankly Penn St(who destroyed Michigan) and the Alabama/Georgia loser

The one thing Wisconsin needs to be rooting for right now is the team they helped a lot earlier this year. That's right, Lane Kiffin and Florida Atlantic. If they finish 10-3, that would help Wisconsin out a lot. That could be a ranked win by the end of the year.

I don't think lightning strikes twice if you see Wisconsin taking a hit before the CCG and then winning it over an otherwise B1G-unblemished OSU. I don't think PSU gets the bid. The non-conference was crap; both Akron AND Georgia State were shameful schedules, and it looks like Pitt won't be much help (barring a miracle the next three games to get them bowl eligible).

PSU needs to finish strong, and cross its fingers Ohio State craps the bed twice before the division play is through. And they need to win the CCG.
11-01-2017 08:52 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #45
RE: CFP reveal-
(11-01-2017 08:49 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-01-2017 08:36 AM)stever20 Wrote:  and actually if Michigan beats Ohio St in your scenario that would HURT Wisconsin as in the Big Ten title game they would see a 2 loss Ohio St team. And Wisconsin would desperately need a 1 loss team opposing them to probably really have any chance at all.

That scenario assumes PSU would lose another game.

If Michigan beats tOSU and Wisconsin, the B1G championship game would be PSU v. Wisconsin.

Wisconsin wins and they'd be the only one of the bunch with only 1 loss.

Under that situation, they'd have a quality loss and a quality win.

And you're right, Wisconsin is rooting for FAU for sure.

actually no. Penn St can win out and still miss the title game. If PSU wins out it would be Ohio St and Penn St tied at 8-1 and h2h gives it to Ohio St.
11-01-2017 08:57 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #46
RE: CFP reveal-
and I'll say this... I think there is a chance if Alabama/Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Oklahoma all win out that Wisconsin even at 13-0 might not make it into the playoffs.... Wisconsin could easily finish the season with 1 CFP rated win(that being Ohio St). Alabama could have 4-5, ND could have 4-5, Clemson 4, and Oklahoma 4-5.
11-01-2017 09:08 AM
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BePcr07 Offline
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Post: #47
RE: CFP reveal-
(11-01-2017 09:08 AM)stever20 Wrote:  and I'll say this... I think there is a chance if Alabama/Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Oklahoma all win out that Wisconsin even at 13-0 might not make it into the playoffs.... Wisconsin could easily finish the season with 1 CFP rated win(that being Ohio St). Alabama could have 4-5, ND could have 4-5, Clemson 4, and Oklahoma 4-5.

I can't honestly imagine an undefeated B1G champion not making it into the CFP. I'm glad that we have the rest of the season though. Oklahoma still has a tough road. Alabama and Georgia still have some rivals ahead and, potentially, each other. Notre Dame never has an easy schedule. Clemson needs to blow out their competition.
11-01-2017 09:58 AM
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Post: #48
RE: CFP reveal-
(11-01-2017 09:58 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(11-01-2017 09:08 AM)stever20 Wrote:  and I'll say this... I think there is a chance if Alabama/Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Oklahoma all win out that Wisconsin even at 13-0 might not make it into the playoffs.... Wisconsin could easily finish the season with 1 CFP rated win(that being Ohio St). Alabama could have 4-5, ND could have 4-5, Clemson 4, and Oklahoma 4-5.

I can't honestly imagine an undefeated B1G champion not making it into the CFP. I'm glad that we have the rest of the season though. Oklahoma still has a tough road. Alabama and Georgia still have some rivals ahead and, potentially, each other. Notre Dame never has an easy schedule. Clemson needs to blow out their competition.

That would be interesting.
1 Alabama
2 Georgia
3 Notre Dame
4/5 Oklahoma/Clemson
6 Wisconsin

Surest way to get to 8.
11-01-2017 10:20 AM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #49
RE: CFP reveal-
We are going through all these "win-out" scenarios, but I kinda wonder if this is a year where there are a bunch of unanticipated upsets down the stretch and in the CCGs and suddenly we are talking about the 2 loss teams. Gonna happen sooner or later.
11-01-2017 10:28 AM
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Post: #50
RE: CFP reveal-
I think there's really now only 2 teams that could lose a game before the CCG and get in the playoff guaranteed. Georgia and Alabama.....

If Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Clemson, Ohio St, Penn St, TCU, Wisconsin, Miami etc. lose a game- they're going to need help(and in some cases a lot of help) to get back in it.
11-01-2017 10:30 AM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #51
RE: CFP reveal-
(11-01-2017 10:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think there's really now only 2 teams that could lose a game before the CCG and get in the playoff guaranteed. Georgia and Alabama.....

If Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Clemson, Ohio St, Penn St, TCU, Wisconsin, Miami etc. lose a game- they're going to need help(and in some cases a lot of help) to get back in it.

I agree with this. 2 loss teams are out of it until the upsets pile up. But some year the upsets will pile up and it could get real tough for the committee to sift through the flawed options.
11-01-2017 10:53 AM
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Post: #52
RE: CFP reveal-
(11-01-2017 09:58 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(11-01-2017 09:08 AM)stever20 Wrote:  and I'll say this... I think there is a chance if Alabama/Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Oklahoma all win out that Wisconsin even at 13-0 might not make it into the playoffs.... Wisconsin could easily finish the season with 1 CFP rated win(that being Ohio St). Alabama could have 4-5, ND could have 4-5, Clemson 4, and Oklahoma 4-5.

I can't honestly imagine an undefeated B1G champion not making it into the CFP.

I can't either. Bottom line is that unless the B1G and/or SEC has no teams with fewer than two losses, there will always be one spot reserved for a B1G team and one for an SEC team. Everyone else is competing for the other two slots.
(This post was last modified: 11-01-2017 10:56 AM by quo vadis.)
11-01-2017 10:55 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #53
RE: CFP reveal-
(11-01-2017 10:53 AM)Frog in the Kitchen Sink Wrote:  
(11-01-2017 10:30 AM)stever20 Wrote:  I think there's really now only 2 teams that could lose a game before the CCG and get in the playoff guaranteed. Georgia and Alabama.....

If Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Clemson, Ohio St, Penn St, TCU, Wisconsin, Miami etc. lose a game- they're going to need help(and in some cases a lot of help) to get back in it.

I agree with this. 2 loss teams are out of it until the upsets pile up. But some year the upsets will pile up and it could get real tough for the committee to sift through the flawed options.

Yes, right now it looks more like a year where there are more 1-loss or fewer teams, but there's still plenty of football to be played and upsets could come in bushels in the coming weeks, such that teams that are regarded as totally out of it right now are suddenly very much alive, teams that look like locks right now are on the outs, and teams that look like they can't possibly make it if they lose again may lose again but still be strongly in contention.

LOTS of football left to play. 07-coffee3
11-01-2017 10:59 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #54
RE: CFP reveal-
(11-01-2017 10:55 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-01-2017 09:58 AM)BePcr07 Wrote:  
(11-01-2017 09:08 AM)stever20 Wrote:  and I'll say this... I think there is a chance if Alabama/Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Oklahoma all win out that Wisconsin even at 13-0 might not make it into the playoffs.... Wisconsin could easily finish the season with 1 CFP rated win(that being Ohio St). Alabama could have 4-5, ND could have 4-5, Clemson 4, and Oklahoma 4-5.

I can't honestly imagine an undefeated B1G champion not making it into the CFP.

I can't either. Bottom line is that unless the B1G and/or SEC has no teams with fewer than two losses, there will always be one spot reserved for a B1G team and one for an SEC team. Everyone else is competing for the other two slots.

If it winds up-
13-0 Alabama
12-1 Georgia
11-1 Notre Dame
12-1 Clemson
12-1 Oklahoma

I'm sorry but I don't see any chance that a 12-1 Wisconsin team gets in over any of those 5 teams.

Heck- I think if we have those teams with a 12-1 Ohio St team- I don't know that it's a lock for Ohio St.
11-01-2017 11:04 AM
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Post: #55
RE: CFP reveal-
(10-31-2017 08:26 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-31-2017 08:20 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  
(10-31-2017 07:17 PM)otown Wrote:  I am loving the top 4. Everyone on the outside will need help at this point. If Georgia loses to Bama in the SECCG, or vice versa..... I don't think either drops below 4. Having Big 12, PAC 12, and the B1G all miss out on the playoffs will be priceless LOL.

I do not think there is any chance that will happen. NO way will three conference champs be left out and two from one conference get in. Besides the SEC is not very good. Alabama has not beaten a team currently ranked in the top 25.....weak schedule.

If OU loses again the Big 12 is out. If Washington loses again the PAC is out. If Clemson loses again and N.D. wins out the ACC is out, but Notre Dame is in, unless Georgia is up for their slot with a close loss to Awilllose labama in the CCG.

The Big 10 is just as likely to get two in as the SEC.

But I wouldn't knock Alabama's schedule too much. When the season is over they will likely hold wins over 5 ranked opponents. Remember F.S.U. was ranked when Alabama beat them and they might still have been ranked if Alabama hand taken out their starting QB for the season.

You maybe right. OU and Washington may very well lose again and would be out of it, but in that event either OSU or TCU might win out and I think it would be hard to keep a one loss conference champ out. Same goes for the BIG, a one loss champ whether it be Ohio State, Penn State or Wisconsin would be hard to leave out.

I agree about not knocking Alabama's schedule. After reading my post I reworded it, but you had already quoted the original.
11-01-2017 11:14 AM
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Post: #56
RE: CFP reveal-
(11-01-2017 09:08 AM)stever20 Wrote:  and I'll say this... I think there is a chance if Alabama/Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Oklahoma all win out that Wisconsin even at 13-0 might not make it into the playoffs.... Wisconsin could easily finish the season with 1 CFP rated win(that being Ohio St). Alabama could have 4-5, ND could have 4-5, Clemson 4, and Oklahoma 4-5.

Wisconsin would jump Clemson or OU at 13-0 no doubt. Between Clemson and OU, that's interesting, but the committee has spoken and looks like Clemson has the slight edge thus far. Comes down to style points for the two, plus Clemson lost on the road in the dome, OU lost at home. That to me is the difference, as good as ISU may be.

If Bama gets blown out by UGa, like two scores, then they could be out all together. UGA is in at 12-0 barring a complete no show in Atlanta.
(This post was last modified: 11-01-2017 12:08 PM by RUScarlets.)
11-01-2017 12:02 PM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #57
RE: CFP reveal-
(11-01-2017 11:14 AM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  
(10-31-2017 08:26 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-31-2017 08:20 PM)SMUmustangs Wrote:  
(10-31-2017 07:17 PM)otown Wrote:  I am loving the top 4. Everyone on the outside will need help at this point. If Georgia loses to Bama in the SECCG, or vice versa..... I don't think either drops below 4. Having Big 12, PAC 12, and the B1G all miss out on the playoffs will be priceless LOL.

I do not think there is any chance that will happen. NO way will three conference champs be left out and two from one conference get in. Besides the SEC is not very good. Alabama has not beaten a team currently ranked in the top 25.....weak schedule.

If OU loses again the Big 12 is out. If Washington loses again the PAC is out. If Clemson loses again and N.D. wins out the ACC is out, but Notre Dame is in, unless Georgia is up for their slot with a close loss to Awilllose labama in the CCG.

The Big 10 is just as likely to get two in as the SEC.

But I wouldn't knock Alabama's schedule too much. When the season is over they will likely hold wins over 5 ranked opponents. Remember F.S.U. was ranked when Alabama beat them and they might still have been ranked if Alabama hand taken out their starting QB for the season.

You maybe right. OU and Washington may very well lose again and would be out of it, but in that event either OSU or TCU might win out and I think it would be hard to keep a one loss conference champ out. Same goes for the BIG, a one loss champ whether it be Ohio State, Penn State or Wisconsin would be hard to leave out.

I agree about not knocking Alabama's schedule. After reading my post I reworded it, but you had already quoted the original.

Alabama's schedule is *currently* soft. Sagarin has it ranked at #55, and for good reason.

But, obviously it will get much tougher. They play three currently-ranked teams to close out the regular season, plus the SEC title game.

It's a sure thing that by the end of the year, Alabama will not have any kind of SOS problem.
11-01-2017 12:03 PM
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Post: #58
RE: CFP reveal-
(11-01-2017 12:02 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(11-01-2017 09:08 AM)stever20 Wrote:  and I'll say this... I think there is a chance if Alabama/Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Oklahoma all win out that Wisconsin even at 13-0 might not make it into the playoffs.... Wisconsin could easily finish the season with 1 CFP rated win(that being Ohio St). Alabama could have 4-5, ND could have 4-5, Clemson 4, and Oklahoma 4-5.

Wisconsin would jump Clemson or OU at 13-0 no doubt. Between Clemson and OU, that's interesting, but the committee has spoken and looks like Clemson has the slight edge thus far. Comes down to style points for the two.

I don't know. I mean, Wisconsin will have 1 ranked win all year long. Michigan not being good really hurts them.
11-01-2017 12:04 PM
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Post: #59
CFP reveal-
(11-01-2017 07:39 AM)quo vadis Wrote:  
(11-01-2017 07:38 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(11-01-2017 07:10 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  The only REAL problem I have is Clemson being #4. I, personally, would have had OU at 4, tOSU at 5, and Clemson at 6.

Sure they have some good wins, but have a BAD loss, much worse than OU or tOSU.

Sorry committee, but past performances should have zero bearing on this year's rankings.

I actually don't have a problem with Wisconsin at 9. What should have been a decent schedule turned into a less that stellar one thanks to several teams having down years. That being said, if Wisconsin takes care of their business and runs the table, they're in.

As much as it's SUPPOSED to be about the 4 best teams, there's no way leaving 3 of the 5 P5 conferences out of the playoffs won't result in a civil war.

I think in the end it will end up being......

1) Alabama
2) ND
3) OU
4) tOSU

And if those four were to all win out from here, then in my mind the only thing that could be controversial is if a 1-loss ACC champion Clemson, who is also the defending national champion (and finalist the year before that), were left out.

Either Virginia Tech or Miami could take the committee off the hook by winning out. If Tech is the one, they would have taken out both Miami and Clemson but still could be justified being placed in the dreaded #5 slot. If it's Miami, they would have taken out both Notre Dame and Clemson, and would replace ND in your top 4 as an undefeated P5 champ.

Don't worry about that - if Clemson wins out, they are in, no matter what. Book mark this so you can hold me accountable. 07-coffee3


Same here, Clemson in if they win out.


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11-01-2017 12:43 PM
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Frog in the Kitchen Sink Offline
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Post: #60
RE: CFP reveal-
(11-01-2017 12:02 PM)RUScarlets Wrote:  
(11-01-2017 09:08 AM)stever20 Wrote:  and I'll say this... I think there is a chance if Alabama/Georgia, Notre Dame, Clemson, and Oklahoma all win out that Wisconsin even at 13-0 might not make it into the playoffs.... Wisconsin could easily finish the season with 1 CFP rated win(that being Ohio St). Alabama could have 4-5, ND could have 4-5, Clemson 4, and Oklahoma 4-5.

Wisconsin would jump Clemson or OU at 13-0 no doubt. Between Clemson and OU, that's interesting, but the committee has spoken and looks like Clemson has the slight edge thus far. Comes down to style points for the two, plus Clemson lost on the road in the dome, OU lost at home. That to me is the difference, as good as ISU may be.

If Bama gets blown out by UGa, like two scores, then they could be out all together. UGA is in at 12-0 barring a complete no show in Atlanta.

I don't think that is necessarily true. They are significantly behind the 1 loss teams and really only have the CCG left for a for sure quality win. Michigan and Iowa could be decent, but they are likely to have 4 and 5 losses and out of the committee's top 25. A Michigan upset of Ohio State the week after Wisconsin wins would go a long way.

We've seen undefeated teams behind 1 loss teams before- FSU was behind 2 in the final rankings from 2014. It's far from unprecedented and Clemson, ND and OU would have very strong resumes with potentially 3 or 4 top 25 wins each (although tough to know how the bottom of the top 25 will look after the losses start to pile up).
11-01-2017 12:59 PM
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