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FCS Football Playoff Selection Committee Rankings
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JMURocks Offline
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Post: #81
RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
(11-10-2017 01:12 PM)Dukester Wrote:  
(11-06-2017 10:37 PM)JMUNation Wrote:  Sagarin ratings etc. mean little to me. The eye test means everything. Watching both leagues play, I see them as equal.

Problem is everyone has different eyesite.

Sagarins back how our conference did ooc.

If you look how the CAA faired in OOC you'll see why we are a distant second.

I think the sagarins show how dominant JMU is, including over our own conference. The rating makes sense. The ratings of the conferences are just as real.

What?

Top 3 FCS conferences:
CAA has a 59-48 record
MVFC has 50-40 record
SoCon has a 42-42 record

Versus ranks the CAA as a clear #1 FCS Conference, and 10th among all Div I conferences. CUSA is #11 overall.

MVFC is ranked 12th overall, and #2 FCS
SoCon is ranked 13th overall, and #3 FCS

Sorry - I know the Sagarins have history and wide spread appeal because they are so widely published, but just don’t think they have the best rating system anymore.
(This post was last modified: 11-10-2017 01:24 PM by JMURocks.)
11-10-2017 01:20 PM
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Dukester Offline
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Post: #82
RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
(11-10-2017 01:20 PM)JMURocks Wrote:  
(11-10-2017 01:12 PM)Dukester Wrote:  
(11-06-2017 10:37 PM)JMUNation Wrote:  Sagarin ratings etc. mean little to me. The eye test means everything. Watching both leagues play, I see them as equal.

Problem is everyone has different eyesite.

Sagarins back how our conference did ooc.

If you look how the CAA faired in OOC you'll see why we are a distant second.

I think the sagarins show how dominant JMU is, including over our own conference. The rating makes sense. The ratings of the conferences are just as real.

What?

Top 3 FCS conferences:
CAA has a 59-48 record
MVFC has 50-40 record
SoCon has a 42-42 record

Versus ranks the CAA as a clear #1 FCS Conference, and 10th among all Div I conferences. CUSA is #11 overall.

MVFC is ranked 12th overall, and #2 FCS
SoCon is ranked 13th overall, and #3 FCS

Sorry - I know the Sagarins have history and wide spread appeal because they are so widely published, but just don’t think they have the best rating system anymore.

Does strength of schedule come into play in your analysis?

Show me the 3 CAA schools that played the most impresively through their OOC schedule?

Was it co # 1 Elon that barely beat Furman and Charleston Southern and lost to Toledo by 34

Was it Stony Brook that beat Sacred heart by 38 and lost to south Florida by 14. Probably the best OOC but not that great.

Was it UD that beat UDSt by 19, lost to UMD by 27 and beat Cornell by 27

New Hampshire beat GSU by 10, lost to holy cross by 25 and beat Bryant by 28

Richmond lost to SHSu by 14, beat Colgate by 3 and beat Howard by 47.

That the rest of the top six in the CAA besides us.

Basically those are results of top 120- 160 teams, but not 7 teams ranked between 49 and 100 like the Missouri Valley Conference.

I know - it's the computer bias against our conference.

We are better than just about every team in the CAA by 3 touchdowns. We are good, but they are not so great too. We're argueably the 2nd best conference in FCS by a hair, but not that close to Missouri Valley conf for #1
11-10-2017 02:16 PM
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JMURocks Offline
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Post: #83
RE: 2017 FCS Football Committee Rankings
(11-10-2017 02:16 PM)Dukester Wrote:  Does strength of schedule come into play in your analysis?

Show me the 3 CAA schools that played the most impresively through their OOC schedule?

Was it co # 1 Elon that barely beat Furman and Charleston Southern and lost to Toledo by 34

Was it Stony Brook that beat Sacred heart by 38 and lost to south Florida by 14. Probably the best OOC but not that great.

Was it UD that beat UDSt by 19, lost to UMD by 27 and beat Cornell by 27

New Hampshire beat GSU by 10, lost to holy cross by 25 and beat Bryant by 28

Richmond lost to SHSu by 14, beat Colgate by 3 and beat Howard by 47.

That the rest of the top six in the CAA besides us.

Basically those are results of top 120- 160 teams, but not 7 teams ranked between 49 and 100 like the Missouri Valley Conference.

I know - it's the computer bias against our conference.

We are better than just about every team in the CAA by 3 touchdowns. We are good, but they are not so great too. We're argueably the 2nd best conference in FCS by a hair, but not that close to Missouri Valley conf for #1

Strength of Schedule and Opponent records both are used in the Versus algorithms. This is not *MY* analysis, it's a different computer algorithm that has a pretty good track record of predicting game outcomes.

For SoS, Versus says:
#1 JMU: Opp Rank: 178
#2 Elon: Opp Rank: 154.4
#4 Stony Brook: Opp Rank: 168.4
#9 Delaware: Opp Rank: 160.1

for MVFC:
#3 NDSU: Opp Rank: 238.2
#7 SDSU: Opp Rank: 165
#14 UNI: Opp Rank: 131.3
#15 W. Ill: Opp Rank: 171.2

Clearly, since NDSU has the weakest SoS, they should be rated lower than all these teams, right?

Of course, you are using opponent rankings based on Sagarin's algorithm, which is calculated differently from what Versus does. I'm a computer and algorithms guy. Show me the data, math, and algorithms behind Sagarin rankings, and we can discuss it in detail. The thing is Sagarin will likely never publish this. Simply saying "Sagarin says NDSU/MVFC is best because they play tougher teams (as determined by Sagarin) is difficult to have an intelligent conversation around.
11-10-2017 04:54 PM
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JMU_Degenerate Offline
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Post: #84
RE: FCS Football Committee Rankings
2018 initial commitee ranks
NDSU
JMU
UC Davis
Weber State
Elon
Kennesaw State
SDSU
Wofford
Eastern Washington
Delaware
(This post was last modified: 10-31-2018 08:28 PM by JMU_Degenerate.)
10-31-2018 08:25 PM
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JMU_Degenerate Offline
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Post: #85
RE: FCS Football Committee Rankings
10-31-2018 08:27 PM
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JMU_Degenerate Offline
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Post: #86
RE: FCS Football Committee Rankings
10-31-2018 08:28 PM
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