(10-29-2017 08:10 PM)Tintin Wrote: (10-29-2017 02:27 PM)MTPiKapp Wrote: I've always been a proponent of having a presence in Florida, but neither one of FAU or FIU have ever had anything resembling sustained success and I don't expect that to change.
In 24 combined FBS seasons, they have four combined winning seasons and 11 combined seasons of three wins or less.
I'll believe it when I see it.
The problem with this conference is the "you haven't been good, you can never be good", and "we were good once, we'll be good again soon.
History didn't help Marshall, WKU or USM on the field yesterday.....and it never will.
History didn't hurt FIU, FAU or UAB yesterday on the field...and it never will.
Good teams can get worse and bad teams can get good.
FAU is easily the best team I've seen play in this conference this season. How they did in the previous five, ten or 17 years is irrelevant.
What are you jabbering on about?
Of course either of them
can be good, if they couldn't, they would have
zero winning seasons out of twenty four combined FBS seasons rather than a whopping
four.
Historical data means very little to individual seasons, let alone individual games, if it did the likes of Vandy, Kentucky, Indiana, Iowa State, etc would
never have winning seasons and G5 wins over traditional P5 powers would
never happen.
Of course history didn't help Marshall, or Western or USM on the field yesterday, what a tremendous misrepresentation of my point.
The point is, over time, programs tend to be what they've always been.
The best indicator of future results is past results. Once strong programs can certainly fall off and traditionally weak programs can certainly turn things around, but more often than not programs go through relatively short upswings or downswings, before ultimately regressing or bouncing back to the norm.
The reason I can say with confidence that over the next ten years, either one of F_U surpassing four winning seasons would be surprising, is the same reason I say MT will likely post more winning seasons than either, though most will likely be 7-5 or 8-4 and a lot of near misses on actually winning the conference, but more than one conference title would be surprising.
And maybe one or both of F_U is starting one of those upswings, and maybe one or both of them are at the beginning of a turning point, and this season is just the harbinger of things to come, but they would be anomalies if it happened.
The best indicator of future results is past results.
Over time, programs tend to be what they've always been.