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CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #1
CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
Ohio State just came back to beat Penn State. Meanwhile, Iowa State is surging in the Big 12 is now is tied for first. And there is Oklahoma, who beat Ohio State early in the season. Notre Dame taking care of its business.

How much of a factor will Michigan State now play from here on?
10-28-2017 06:23 PM
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Jjoey52 Offline
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CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
Not much, Northwestern beat them, also TCU lost.


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10-28-2017 08:38 PM
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GE and MTS Offline
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Post: #3
RE: CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
Well based on last season, Penn State should be ranked higher than Ohio State despite losing on the road by a close margin. Penn State won all their games thus far, and all their non-conference games and should be ranked ahead of Ohio State who was coming off a bye week, at home, and only won by one. That's the precedent that the committee laid out last year and if they don't want to be hypocritical then they'll continue it again this year. Lucky for OSU, the Big Ten may get two teams in this year.
10-28-2017 08:45 PM
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Jjoey52 Offline
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CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
No way should the over rated Big 10 get 2 teams in, Alabama, Clemson, OSU and Georgia if things stay the same. TCU messed up theirs and Big 12 chances, UW is only one with a chance out of PAC. Then their is Norte Dame. Of course, this could all get blown up next week.


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(This post was last modified: 10-29-2017 01:07 AM by Jjoey52.)
10-29-2017 01:05 AM
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GE and MTS Offline
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RE: CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
Alabama has played nobody in non-conference play. If they lose, they'll be in the same position as Penn State at the moment. The SEC and Big Ten have a great shot to get two schools in whether or not you believe they are overrated.
10-29-2017 08:28 AM
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tcufrog86 Offline
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RE: CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
(10-29-2017 01:05 AM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  No way should the over rated Big 10 get 2 teams in, Alabama, Clemson, OSU and Georgia if things stay the same. TCU messed up theirs and Big 12 chances, UW is only one with a chance out of PAC. Then their is Norte Dame. Of course, this could all get blown up next week.


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Big 12 is definitely not out of the picture yet. Oklahoma has a OOC win on the road at Ohio State and their loss to Iowa State no longer looks that bad.

OUs next two games are against teams currently ranked in the top 10/12 (depending on the poll) and if the Sooners win both of those they will be sitting in a good position.

Of course, I don't necessarily expect that to happen because the Big 12 has a history of eating itself up. That is what happens when you actually play everyone in your conference. You don't get to miss all the top conference teams like Wisconsin does in the Big 10 (and that comment is coming from a Wisconsin fan).
(This post was last modified: 10-30-2017 08:01 AM by tcufrog86.)
10-30-2017 07:59 AM
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BadgerMJ Offline
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Post: #7
RE: CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
(10-30-2017 07:59 AM)tcufrog86 Wrote:  
(10-29-2017 01:05 AM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  No way should the over rated Big 10 get 2 teams in, Alabama, Clemson, OSU and Georgia if things stay the same. TCU messed up theirs and Big 12 chances, UW is only one with a chance out of PAC. Then their is Norte Dame. Of course, this could all get blown up next week.


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Big 12 is definitely not out of the picture yet. Oklahoma has a OOC win on the road at Ohio State and their loss to Iowa State no longer looks that bad.

OUs next two games are against teams currently ranked in the top 10/12 (depending on the poll) and if the Sooners win both of those they will be sitting in a good position.

Of course, I don't necessarily expect that to happen because the Big 12 has a history of eating itself up. That is what happens when you actually play everyone in your conference. You don't get to miss all the top conference teams like Wisconsin does in the Big 10 (and that comment is coming from a Wisconsin fan).

I think the XII is in control of their own destiny.

OU has a quality win against tOSU, and a quality loss to ISU
TCU has quality wins over OSU & WVU, and a quality loss against ISU

OKST's resume isn't that great, but a win over OU would help.

The only way they aren't in is if ISU wins the conference. Losses against TX & Iowa aren't going to get it done.

As for the whole Wisconsin has a weak schedule, I don't recall people squawking last year when they played tOSU, Michigan, and LSU.

You play the schedule given and win the games you're supposed to win, that's all you can do. Not to mention, it isn't their fault that BYU, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota are down this year. Normally that would be a decent schedule.

Who gets in depends on the SEC championship game (everything being equal and teams staying on course). Georgia wins and ND is in. Bama blows Georgia out, ND is in. Bama squeaks by and I think the other 3 will boil down these.....

ND
Georgia
B1G winner
XII winner (unless it's ISU)
Clemson (if ISU wins the XII)
10-30-2017 08:54 AM
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tcufrog86 Offline
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RE: CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
(10-30-2017 08:54 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(10-30-2017 07:59 AM)tcufrog86 Wrote:  
(10-29-2017 01:05 AM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  No way should the over rated Big 10 get 2 teams in, Alabama, Clemson, OSU and Georgia if things stay the same. TCU messed up theirs and Big 12 chances, UW is only one with a chance out of PAC. Then their is Norte Dame. Of course, this could all get blown up next week.


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Big 12 is definitely not out of the picture yet. Oklahoma has a OOC win on the road at Ohio State and their loss to Iowa State no longer looks that bad.

OUs next two games are against teams currently ranked in the top 10/12 (depending on the poll) and if the Sooners win both of those they will be sitting in a good position.

Of course, I don't necessarily expect that to happen because the Big 12 has a history of eating itself up. That is what happens when you actually play everyone in your conference. You don't get to miss all the top conference teams like Wisconsin does in the Big 10 (and that comment is coming from a Wisconsin fan).

I think the XII is in control of their own destiny.

OU has a quality win against tOSU, and a quality loss to ISU
TCU has quality wins over OSU & WVU, and a quality loss against ISU

OKST's resume isn't that great, but a win over OU would help.

The only way they aren't in is if ISU wins the conference. Losses against TX & Iowa aren't going to get it done.

As for the whole Wisconsin has a weak schedule, I don't recall people squawking last year when they played tOSU, Michigan, and LSU.

You play the schedule given and win the games you're supposed to win, that's all you can do. Not to mention, it isn't their fault that BYU, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota are down this year. Normally that would be a decent schedule.


Who gets in depends on the SEC championship game (everything being equal and teams staying on course). Georgia wins and ND is in. Bama blows Georgia out, ND is in. Bama squeaks by and I think the other 3 will boil down these.....

ND
Georgia
B1G winner
XII winner (unless it's ISU)
Clemson (if ISU wins the XII)

Well yeah, people weren't squawking last year because those 3 games are all better opponents than anyone Wisconsin will face in the regular season this year. It isn't Wisconsin's fault, just the unfortunate reality of the extremely unbalanced Big 10 divisions. BYU is just really unfortunate timing, certainly when Wisconsin scheduled that game you figure the Cougars would be a top 35 type team.

Sure Nebraska and Iowa are typically a bit better than they are this year, but since the Big 10 went to this divisional line up Wisconsin has been the only consistent strong team in the West.

Going undefeated is hard against just about any schedule and if Wisconsin does that, which would include a signature win in the Big 10 title game then they are absolutely going to get in the playoffs.
10-30-2017 09:45 AM
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Post: #9
RE: CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
Playoffs:
Bama
Georgia
ND
B1G Champ

PAC, ACC, and Big 12 scream bloody murder for an expansion to 8 teams for the playoffs.
10-31-2017 03:46 PM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #10
RE: CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
(10-30-2017 08:54 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(10-30-2017 07:59 AM)tcufrog86 Wrote:  
(10-29-2017 01:05 AM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  No way should the over rated Big 10 get 2 teams in, Alabama, Clemson, OSU and Georgia if things stay the same. TCU messed up theirs and Big 12 chances, UW is only one with a chance out of PAC. Then their is Norte Dame. Of course, this could all get blown up next week.


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Big 12 is definitely not out of the picture yet. Oklahoma has a OOC win on the road at Ohio State and their loss to Iowa State no longer looks that bad.

OUs next two games are against teams currently ranked in the top 10/12 (depending on the poll) and if the Sooners win both of those they will be sitting in a good position.

Of course, I don't necessarily expect that to happen because the Big 12 has a history of eating itself up. That is what happens when you actually play everyone in your conference. You don't get to miss all the top conference teams like Wisconsin does in the Big 10 (and that comment is coming from a Wisconsin fan).

I think the XII is in control of their own destiny.

OU has a quality win against tOSU, and a quality loss to ISU
TCU has quality wins over OSU & WVU, and a quality loss against ISU

OKST's resume isn't that great, but a win over OU would help.

The only way they aren't in is if ISU wins the conference. Losses against TX & Iowa aren't going to get it done.

As for the whole Wisconsin has a weak schedule, I don't recall people squawking last year when they played tOSU, Michigan, and LSU.

You play the schedule given and win the games you're supposed to win, that's all you can do. Not to mention, it isn't their fault that BYU, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota are down this year. Normally that would be a decent schedule.

Who gets in depends on the SEC championship game (everything being equal and teams staying on course). Georgia wins and ND is in. Bama blows Georgia out, ND is in. Bama squeaks by and I think the other 3 will boil down these.....

ND
Georgia
B1G winner
XII winner (unless it's ISU)
Clemson (if ISU wins the XII)

The Big 12 has an issue that nobody is addressing. Yes OU defeated OSU in Columbus, and T.C.U. beat a woeful Arkansas squad, but outside of that they have an abysmal record against OOC opponents. That little fact could yet prove to be their undoing.
11-01-2017 08:45 PM
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RE: CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
(11-01-2017 08:45 PM)JRsec Wrote:  
(10-30-2017 08:54 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(10-30-2017 07:59 AM)tcufrog86 Wrote:  
(10-29-2017 01:05 AM)Jjoey52 Wrote:  No way should the over rated Big 10 get 2 teams in, Alabama, Clemson, OSU and Georgia if things stay the same. TCU messed up theirs and Big 12 chances, UW is only one with a chance out of PAC. Then their is Norte Dame. Of course, this could all get blown up next week.


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Big 12 is definitely not out of the picture yet. Oklahoma has a OOC win on the road at Ohio State and their loss to Iowa State no longer looks that bad.

OUs next two games are against teams currently ranked in the top 10/12 (depending on the poll) and if the Sooners win both of those they will be sitting in a good position.

Of course, I don't necessarily expect that to happen because the Big 12 has a history of eating itself up. That is what happens when you actually play everyone in your conference. You don't get to miss all the top conference teams like Wisconsin does in the Big 10 (and that comment is coming from a Wisconsin fan).

I think the XII is in control of their own destiny.

OU has a quality win against tOSU, and a quality loss to ISU
TCU has quality wins over OSU & WVU, and a quality loss against ISU

OKST's resume isn't that great, but a win over OU would help.

The only way they aren't in is if ISU wins the conference. Losses against TX & Iowa aren't going to get it done.

As for the whole Wisconsin has a weak schedule, I don't recall people squawking last year when they played tOSU, Michigan, and LSU.

You play the schedule given and win the games you're supposed to win, that's all you can do. Not to mention, it isn't their fault that BYU, Nebraska, Iowa, and Minnesota are down this year. Normally that would be a decent schedule.

Who gets in depends on the SEC championship game (everything being equal and teams staying on course). Georgia wins and ND is in. Bama blows Georgia out, ND is in. Bama squeaks by and I think the other 3 will boil down these.....

ND
Georgia
B1G winner
XII winner (unless it's ISU)
Clemson (if ISU wins the XII)

The Big 12 has an issue that nobody is addressing. Yes OU defeated OSU in Columbus, and T.C.U. beat a woeful Arkansas squad, but outside of that they have an abysmal record against OOC opponents. That little fact could yet prove to be their undoing.

P5 vs P5 or ND, the Big 12 didn't do drastically worse than some others.

PAC 12: 6-3 (67%)
Big 10: 7-5 (58%)
SEC: 6-6 (50%)
Big 12: 4-6 (40%)
ACC: 5-8 (38%) - didn't count ND here, but would be an additional 3 ACC losses. They are kind of de-facto conference due to schedule agreement.

I would agree that outside of Oklahoma, nobody in the Big 12 has a marque OOC win.

Are these the best wins by conference?
Big 12 - Ohio State
Big 10 - Iowa State?
SEC - Notre Dame
PAC 12 - Texas A&M?
ACC - Auburn

I'd argue that Georgia and Oklahoma are the only teams that have a elite OOC win. Next would be Clemson with the very good Auburn win and Iowa with a strong Iowa State win. I also think Bama gets some credit for Florida State as obviously odd circumstances there where Bama for most of the game faced a very different FSU team.
(This post was last modified: 11-02-2017 12:23 PM by tcufrog86.)
11-02-2017 11:56 AM
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DawgNBama Offline
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RE: CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
In fairness to the Big Ten, Florida was/is also down this year. Just like 'Bama played a different FSU team, Michigan played a different UF team too.
11-03-2017 03:03 AM
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tcufrog86 Offline
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RE: CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
(11-03-2017 03:03 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  In fairness to the Big Ten, Florida was/is also down this year. Just like 'Bama played a different FSU team, Michigan played a different UF team too.

Not really an apples to apples scenario because Florida is just down, of course they did have some suspended players in that first game that gave Michigan even more of an advantage. To be fair, Michigan is down this year from last year as well.

Florida State, while not as good as last year even with Deondre Francois healthy would be a different team with him. For most of the game, Bama did face FSU with Francois.
11-03-2017 07:59 AM
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Hokie Mark Offline
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RE: CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
(11-02-2017 11:56 AM)tcufrog86 Wrote:  P5 vs P5 or ND, the Big 12 didn't do drastically worse than some others.

PAC 12: 6-3 (67%)
Big 10: 7-5 (58%)
SEC: 6-6 (50%)
Big 12: 4-6 (40%)
ACC: 5-8 (38%) - didn't count ND here, but would be an additional 3 ACC losses. They are kind of de-facto conference due to schedule agreement.

I would agree that outside of Oklahoma, nobody in the Big 12 has a marque OOC win.

Are these the best wins by conference?
Big 12 - Ohio State
Big 10 - Iowa State?
SEC - Notre Dame
PAC 12 - Texas A&M?
ACC - Auburn

I'd argue that Georgia and Oklahoma are the only teams that have a elite OOC win. Next would be Clemson with the very good Auburn win and Iowa with a strong Iowa State win. I also think Bama gets some credit for Florida State as obviously odd circumstances there where Bama for most of the game faced a very different FSU team.

As for the ACC, I think it comes down to Notre Dame @ Miami... if the Canes win, that becomes the best ACC non-conference win. The only ACC team with a shot at a better team is Georgia Tech, which hosts Georgia.
11-04-2017 02:31 PM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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RE: CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
The Big Ten has basically played itself out of the CFP, other than Wisconsin, and they're going to need help elsewhere to have a shot. It's now an open question who they would prefer as the strongest team from the East. They also have Iowa next week, who is going to come in very confident after dismantling Ohio State.
11-05-2017 04:32 AM
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BadgerMJ Offline
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RE: CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
(11-05-2017 04:32 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  The Big Ten has basically played itself out of the CFP, other than Wisconsin, and they're going to need help elsewhere to have a shot. It's now an open question who they would prefer as the strongest team from the East. They also have Iowa next week, who is going to come in very confident after dismantling Ohio State.

You're right, the B1G only has one chance to make it to the playoffs, Wisconsin. IF they can make it to the title game undefeated, they'll have beaten two decent teams in the last three weeks and probably be facing a Michigan State team in the championship game.

If they are run the table and can impress against both MI & MI ST. I don't see how they could be left out.

Now watch, they'll blow it against Minnesota.
11-05-2017 10:37 AM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
(11-03-2017 07:59 AM)tcufrog86 Wrote:  
(11-03-2017 03:03 AM)DawgNBama Wrote:  In fairness to the Big Ten, Florida was/is also down this year. Just like 'Bama played a different FSU team, Michigan played a different UF team too.

Not really an apples to apples scenario because Florida is just down, of course they did have some suspended players in that first game that gave Michigan even more of an advantage. To be fair, Michigan is down this year from last year as well.

Florida State, while not as good as last year even with Deondre Francois healthy would be a different team with him. For most of the game, Bama did face FSU with Francois.
Florida had, and still have, 10 suspended players. Among those were offensive and defensive players. Their fate with regard to the credit/debit card issue has yet to be resolved.

The Florida Michigan played had a couple of more players since lost to injury and suspension, but was essentially the same squad they are now.
11-05-2017 11:15 AM
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JRsec Offline
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RE: CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
(11-05-2017 10:37 AM)BadgerMJ Wrote:  
(11-05-2017 04:32 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  The Big Ten has basically played itself out of the CFP, other than Wisconsin, and they're going to need help elsewhere to have a shot. It's now an open question who they would prefer as the strongest team from the East. They also have Iowa next week, who is going to come in very confident after dismantling Ohio State.

You're right, the B1G only has one chance to make it to the playoffs, Wisconsin. IF they can make it to the title game undefeated, they'll have beaten two decent teams in the last three weeks and probably be facing a Michigan State team in the championship game.

If they are run the table and can impress against both MI & MI ST. I don't see how they could be left out.


Now watch, they'll blow it against Minnesota.

I think if they are to meet & beat Michigan State and have it count, it is essential that the Spartans beat the Buckeyes next week.

And an added benefit is that should the Spartans beat Ohio State it erodes Oklahoma's SOS in the process.

Should OSU beat Michigan State Wisconsin will face a foe both capable of beating them since OSU's strength is in stopping the run, and OSU's strength is in the run offensively they match up well against the Badgers. And even if Wisconsin met and beat OSU by 14, such a win would be discounted against the Oklahoma and Iowa losses.

Wisconsin's best hope is to win out and let natural attrition takes its toll.

Miami / N.D., Washington / Washington St, Auburn / Georgia, Auburn / Alabama, T.C.U. / Oklahoma, Clemson / South Carolina and all of the CCG's still remain. That's Wisconsin's best ally.
(This post was last modified: 11-05-2017 11:28 AM by JRsec.)
11-05-2017 11:22 AM
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Transic_nyc Offline
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Post: #19
RE: CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
So who moved up the most this past night? My guess is Oklahoma, who has done nothing but taking care of business since dropping the game against Iowa State. Miami made a statement as well but it could well be a case of Notre Dame being more exposed than the Canes being that good.

Auburn is clearly the new dark horse. The Tigers must be salivating at the chance at having two more chances of knocking off top ten teams.

Wisco needs to just take care of business since we still have a lot more twists and turns. Are they helped more by beating Iowa or Ohio State smashing Michigan State? Mississippi State could've done the Big Ten a huge favor but that didn't happen.

Right now it looks like the remaining drama is between Clemson and Miami not dropping any more games before the CCG, Oklahoma and the Big XII and Bama/Auburn/Georgia.
11-12-2017 02:48 AM
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JRsec Offline
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Post: #20
RE: CFP Just Got A Lot More Complicated
(11-12-2017 02:48 AM)Transic_nyc Wrote:  So who moved up the most this past night? My guess is Oklahoma, who has done nothing but taking care of business since dropping the game against Iowa State. Miami made a statement as well but it could well be a case of Notre Dame being more exposed than the Canes being that good.

Auburn is clearly the new dark horse. The Tigers must be salivating at the chance at having two more chances of knocking off top ten teams.

Wisco needs to just take care of business since we still have a lot more twists and turns. Are they helped more by beating Iowa or Ohio State smashing Michigan State? Mississippi State could've done the Big Ten a huge favor but that didn't happen.

Right now it looks like the remaining drama is between Clemson and Miami not dropping any more games before the CCG, Oklahoma and the Big XII and Bama/Auburn/Georgia.

If Wisconsin beats Michigan and Ohio State they're in, provided they don't drop the easier game.

We'll get 1 out of the ACC and 1 out of the SEC. Oklahoma's spot is their's to lose. If they do lose, or if Wisconsin stumbles that's probably the only way some conference gets 2 in.
11-12-2017 11:06 PM
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