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DavidSt Online
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Post: #41
RE: 2017 APR Watch
You might watch out for UMass. They snuck in with their 4th win, and if they win next week against FIU on the 2nd? They might jump ahead some of the others on the list.
11-19-2017 05:44 AM
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ken d Online
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Post: #42
RE: 2017 APR Watch
At this point, we are assured of at least 74 conventionally eligible teams. 70 have already qualified, and there are 21 teams whose fate hasn't been settled yet.

8 of those teams play each other this week, with the winner advancing and the loser going home. One, Louisiana, can get their ticket punched by beating Georgia Southern (1-9) this week, but they don't face elimination yet if they lose.

Three teams can be eliminated, but would have to wait another week to qualify. They are Florida State (@Florida), La-Monroe (Arkansas St) and New Mexico St (Idaho).

The other 9 teams can either qualify with a win this week or be eliminated with a loss. They are:

Duke- @ Wake Forest
Georgia Tech - Georgia
Texas Tech - @ Texas
Temple - @ Tulsa
Tulane - SMU
UNLV - @ Nevada
Buffalo - Ohio
Louisiana Tech - UT San Antonio
Minnesota - Wisconsin
11-19-2017 09:16 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #43
RE: 2017 APR Watch
(11-19-2017 12:12 AM)stever20 Wrote:  so looking-
4 5-6 games now.
so would need 4 from
unlikely:
Duke @ 7-4 Wake Forest
Minnesota vs 11-0 Wisconsin
Georgia Tech vs 10-1 Georgia
Buffalo vs 8-3 Ohio U
Tulane @ 6-5 SMU
Texas Tech @ 6-5 Texas
La Tech vs 6-4 UTSA

Likely:
Temple @ 2-9 Tulsa
UNLV @ 2-9 Nevada

then:
FSU plays Florida- win and they should get in with a win over ULM
Lafayette- plays Ga Southern. Win and they're in. Lose and must win @ App St.

so to me, the 2 huge games are FSU/Florida and Lafayette/Ga Southern. If FSU/Lafayette both win, we will likely be set right at 78. If one/both lose- we probably don't make it.

so the first of my unlikely teams gets in. Buffalo beats Ohio.
11-24-2017 04:27 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #44
RE: 2017 APR Watch
Texas Tech gets in.

If the 2 likely teams that I had win- we are at 78. Will likely get the 80 that we needed last year.
11-25-2017 12:20 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #45
RE: 2017 APR Watch
now guaranteed having at least 79, and very possible could wind up with 82.
11-26-2017 12:49 AM
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ken d Online
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Post: #46
RE: 2017 APR Watch
(11-26-2017 12:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:  now guaranteed having at least 79, and very possible could wind up with 82.

Seems to me that, if 5-7 teams are selected for inclusion because they have the best APR, then the 6-6 teams with the worst APR should be the ones left out of the bowls.
11-26-2017 07:50 AM
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quo vadis Offline
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Post: #47
RE: 2017 APR Watch
(11-26-2017 07:50 AM)ken d Wrote:  
(11-26-2017 12:49 AM)stever20 Wrote:  now guaranteed having at least 79, and very possible could wind up with 82.

Seems to me that, if 5-7 teams are selected for inclusion because they have the best APR, then the 6-6 teams with the worst APR should be the ones left out of the bowls.

I don't like that idea. If 6-6 is defined as "eligible", period, and right now it is, then IMO the first cut among 6-6 teams should be conference bowl tie-ins. If a conference has 7 bowl slots and 8 teams are eligible by the NCAA six-win standard, then the conference itself should decide which teams go to the bowls using their own conference rules.

Then, once conferences fill their slots, leftover teams should be compared nationally using NCAA standards, such as ARP, to place the misfit toys.

A conference should only have to surrender a tie-in in a bowl it is contracted to to a school from another conference if it doesn't have any eligible teams.
(This post was last modified: 11-26-2017 08:03 AM by quo vadis.)
11-26-2017 07:55 AM
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ken d Online
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Post: #48
RE: 2017 APR Watch
For the record, the order in which 6-6 teams might be excluded due to APR are:

#126 Louisiana Tech
#124 Florida State
#111 Texas Tech
#109 New Mexico State

Since there is already one extra team, Louisiana Tech would get knocked out. Then, if Florida State wins next week, there would be at least a second team knocked out, which would be Florida State. The irony of that would be beautiful, since they would only have had a chance for their 6th win by the cheesy action of rescheduling ULM only after realizing they would need that game to get to 6 wins.
11-26-2017 08:03 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #49
RE: 2017 APR Watch
(11-26-2017 08:03 AM)ken d Wrote:  For the record, the order in which 6-6 teams might be excluded due to APR are:

#126 Louisiana Tech
#124 Florida State
#111 Texas Tech
#109 New Mexico State

Since there is already one extra team, Louisiana Tech would get knocked out. Then, if Florida State wins next week, there would be at least a second team knocked out, which would be Florida State. The irony of that would be beautiful, since they would only have had a chance for their 6th win by the cheesy action of rescheduling ULM only after realizing they would need that game to get to 6 wins.

sorry it doesn't work that way. The only time APR is used is if there aren't enough teams eligible and they need to reward a non bowl eligible team.
11-26-2017 11:00 AM
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chargeradio Online
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Post: #50
RE: 2017 APR Watch
Louisiana Tech may be out anyway due to C-USA simply not having enough bowls.

If we get to 80, I would expect Buffalo to be the next one out. Western Michigan is probably gone at 81.

If both Louisiana and New Mexico State win, I expect one of them to be left out. I have seen conflicting information about whether the Sun Belt has a tie to the Frisco Bowl, so that may save both of them as the SunBelt would have slots for all six eligible teams. If both Sun Belt teams survive I expect Middle Tennessee to be gone at 82.
11-26-2017 11:20 AM
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ken d Online
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Post: #51
RE: 2017 APR Watch
(11-26-2017 11:00 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-26-2017 08:03 AM)ken d Wrote:  For the record, the order in which 6-6 teams might be excluded due to APR are:

#126 Louisiana Tech
#124 Florida State
#111 Texas Tech
#109 New Mexico State

Since there is already one extra team, Louisiana Tech would get knocked out. Then, if Florida State wins next week, there would be at least a second team knocked out, which would be Florida State. The irony of that would be beautiful, since they would only have had a chance for their 6th win by the cheesy action of rescheduling ULM only after realizing they would need that game to get to 6 wins.

sorry it doesn't work that way. The only time APR is used is if there aren't enough teams eligible and they need to reward a non bowl eligible team.

I know that it doesn't work that way. I'm suggesting it should work that way. Unless, of course you believe the P5 conferences should have an advantage over the G5 when it comes to bowl selection.
11-26-2017 02:34 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #52
RE: 2017 APR Watch
(11-26-2017 02:34 PM)ken d Wrote:  
(11-26-2017 11:00 AM)stever20 Wrote:  
(11-26-2017 08:03 AM)ken d Wrote:  For the record, the order in which 6-6 teams might be excluded due to APR are:

#126 Louisiana Tech
#124 Florida State
#111 Texas Tech
#109 New Mexico State

Since there is already one extra team, Louisiana Tech would get knocked out. Then, if Florida State wins next week, there would be at least a second team knocked out, which would be Florida State. The irony of that would be beautiful, since they would only have had a chance for their 6th win by the cheesy action of rescheduling ULM only after realizing they would need that game to get to 6 wins.

sorry it doesn't work that way. The only time APR is used is if there aren't enough teams eligible and they need to reward a non bowl eligible team.

I know that it doesn't work that way. I'm suggesting it should work that way. Unless, of course you believe the P5 conferences should have an advantage over the G5 when it comes to bowl selection.

6 wins and it's market forces.

5 wins and it's totally ok to go based off of APR.
11-26-2017 02:42 PM
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