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2017 APR Watch
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stever20 Online
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Post: #21
RE: 2017 APR Watch
Updated with the Tuesday MACTION!!!!
11-07-2017 11:37 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #22
RE: 2017 APR Watch
Updated with the Wednesday MACTION!!!

2 teams get bowl eligible- and another falls off the APR list with 8 losses.
11-09-2017 12:37 AM
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Gamecock Offline
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Post: #23
RE: 2017 APR Watch
Appreciate this, good stuff
11-09-2017 06:25 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #24
RE: 2017 APR Watch
Updated with the Thursday games. App St becomes Bowl Eligible. Ball St falls of the APR list with 8 losses.
11-10-2017 01:23 AM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #25
RE: 2017 APR Watch
We're starting to get close to the point where teams relying on their APR rank may be disappointed.

We now have 53 schools already eligible, and based on point spreads for the 14 teams who could become eligible this week we would expect that number to reach 62 by tomorrow. It also appears, based on spreads, that we could have 28 teams out of contention.

That leaves 40 teams whose bowl fates are yet to be decided, and only needing 16 of those to reach the magic number of 78 to put the 5-7 teams out of their misery. There are 21 of those 40 teams that could theoretically reach eligibility next week by winning this week and next. Chances are some of those will lose this week, and won't be able to clinch until the final week. But if I'm looking at only having five wins, I'm thinking about making other plans for the holiday season.
11-10-2017 11:43 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #26
RE: 2017 APR Watch
updated with the action on Friday that's applicable....

Temple gets a huge win to get to 5-5. They have UCF next week, but then get Tulsa to have a shot at 6-6. Cincy falls out of bowls with that loss...

Then in MWC- UNLV loses to BYU to fall to 4-6. Still need to beat both New Mexico and Nevada- both on the road.
11-11-2017 01:53 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #27
RE: 2017 APR Watch
updated with most everything now tonight...

I show 19 teams right now at 4-6. Of those 19 teams- there's only 8 that are really possible to go bowling from that group. If we see some upset losses from those 8, those 19 could get wiped out quickly. Considering there's only 46(and quite possibly 45 after Hawaii loses tonight) teams left- that narrows things down considerably. Then you have a team like a Georgia Tech which needs 1 win to get BE- but has left @ Duke and then Georgia. Unless they're going to upset Georgia- they have a 1 game chance vs Duke. And there are others like that as well....
11-12-2017 01:56 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #28
RE: 2017 APR Watch
Hawaii knocked out from bowl eligibility with their 7th loss tonight....

need 19 teams now and only 45 left possibly to get it.

I see 3 remaining games with 2 5 win teams currently playing each other that'd get us to 16. This could grow obviously next week.

It's going to be really close.
11-12-2017 03:07 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #29
RE: 2017 APR Watch
Updated with Tuesday MACTION....

18 teams needed with 44 left to get it.
11-14-2017 11:07 PM
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Gamecock Offline
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Post: #30
RE: 2017 APR Watch
Feels like we won't have any 5-7 bowl teams this year. Only 18 slots left.
11-15-2017 09:28 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #31
RE: 2017 APR Watch
(11-15-2017 09:28 AM)Gamecock Wrote:  Feels like we won't have any 5-7 bowl teams this year. Only 18 slots left.

yeah- but only 44 teams left possible.

and we could easily lose a lot of teams this weekend. by pointspreads we could lose 13 of those 44 right there. And some are pretty huge underdogs. So all of a sudden got 18 out of 33. And have some games next week like Utah/Colorado, UCLA/Cal, and Texas/Texas Tech where winner goes bowling, loser is out. Just those 3 games would take it to 15 of 27.

It's going to be close one way or the other. The 1 fewer bowl really solved a lot of the problems I think.
11-15-2017 10:22 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #32
RE: 2017 APR Watch
In the only game that matters tonight from a BE standpoint- Miami loses and falls out of bowl eligibility.

Miami was NOT one of those 1 that were favored this weekend- and given the last game was vs Ball St- it likely costs them bowl eligibility- they'll finish 5-7 instead of 6-6.
(This post was last modified: 11-15-2017 10:37 PM by stever20.)
11-15-2017 10:34 PM
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ken d Offline
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Post: #33
RE: 2017 APR Watch
Of the 17 schools I had projected to get to 6 wins (which would bring the total to 76), Miami (O) wasn't one of them.

My best guesses:

ACC: Boston College, Florida State, Georgia Tech
PAC: Oregon, UCLA, Arizona State, Utah
B12: Texas
B1G: None
SEC: Mizzou
AAC: Temple
MWC: Utah State
MAC: Akron
USA: Western Kentucky, Middle Tennessee, Louisiana Tech
SBC: Arkansas State, New Mexico State

While I expected Akron to make it, I didn't think it would be this week. I saw them beating Kent State next week to get in.

EDIT: Teams will be bolded as they qualify.
(This post was last modified: 11-19-2017 07:51 AM by ken d.)
11-16-2017 09:24 AM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #34
RE: 2017 APR Watch
Buffalo wins tonight to get to 5 wins to set up a win and in vs Ohio next week.

I've also started updating it where for 5-6 teams I'll show who they are playing next week to get bowl eligible.

It's going to be really close.
11-16-2017 10:27 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #35
RE: 2017 APR Watch
updated for Friday action. UNLV stays alive in a big win. And best possible case for CUSA I think for bids....

Got 17 teams left needed...

One thing- we've already got 21 teams with 5 wins. The 17th team on the list by APR is Arkansas St. Means anyone below them is out even with the APR provision, as we have enough teams. So Eastern Michigan and UMass are both gone- with 7 losses.
11-18-2017 01:16 AM
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Post: #36
RE: 2017 APR Watch
early update-
Texas goes bowling. #62
Arkansas gone with their loss.
11-18-2017 03:29 PM
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Post: #37
RE: 2017 APR Watch
Pitt out with their loss.
11-18-2017 03:35 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #38
RE: 2017 APR Watch
I've been updating thru the day..

One thing that seems noticeable is there's going to be a lot fewer teams playing to get bowl eligible than we're used to seeing the last week of November next week.
11-18-2017 10:42 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #39
RE: 2017 APR Watch
looking at next week- need 4 of these to get bowl eligible to get to 78....
T4. Duke 992 5-6 so far @ 7-4 Wake Forest
T4. Minnesota 992 5-6 so far vs 11-0 Wisconsin
T16. Georgia Tech 983 5-5 so far(11 games only) vs 10-1 Georgia
T34. Buffalo 977 5-6 so far vs 8-3 Ohio U.
T52. Temple 972 5-6 so far @ 2-9 Tulsa
T71. Tulane 967 5-6 so far @ 6-5 SMU
83. ULM 963 4-6 so far vs 6-3 Arkansas St, 4-6 Florida St
104. Louisiana-Lafayette 954 5-5 so far vs Ga Southern, @ App St
109. New Mexico State 950 4-6 so far vs Idaho, S Alabama
T111. Texas Tech 947 5-6 so far @ 6-5 Texas
T118. UNLV 943 5-6 so far @ 2-9 Nevada
T124. Florida State 939 4-6 so far vs 4-6 Florida, 4-6 ULM
126. Louisiana Tech 937 5-6 so far vs 6-4 UTSA

5-6 Old Dominion @ 5-6 Middle Tennessee
5-6 Indiana @ 5-6 Purdue
5-6 California @ 5-6 UCLA
5-6 Colorado @ 5-6 Utah
(This post was last modified: 11-19-2017 02:22 AM by stever20.)
11-18-2017 11:57 PM
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stever20 Online
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Post: #40
RE: 2017 APR Watch
so looking-
4 5-6 games now.
so would need 4 from
unlikely:
Duke @ 7-4 Wake Forest
Minnesota vs 11-0 Wisconsin
Georgia Tech vs 10-1 Georgia
Buffalo vs 8-3 Ohio U
Tulane @ 6-5 SMU
Texas Tech @ 6-5 Texas
La Tech vs 6-4 UTSA

Likely:
Temple @ 2-9 Tulsa
UNLV @ 2-9 Nevada

then:
FSU plays Florida- win and they should get in with a win over ULM
Lafayette- plays Ga Southern. Win and they're in. Lose and must win @ App St.

so to me, the 2 huge games are FSU/Florida and Lafayette/Ga Southern. If FSU/Lafayette both win, we will likely be set right at 78. If one/both lose- we probably don't make it.
(This post was last modified: 11-19-2017 02:22 AM by stever20.)
11-19-2017 12:12 AM
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